General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2025)

[BB17]

10 minutes ago, Brownie19 said:

Santander is a star in the way Kyle Schwarber is. And if you believe connorp's view that offense is worth more than defense, especially in the playoffs than Santander is clearly a star (and yes it's subjective what a star is).  

I’d say Schwarber is a tier above Santander offensively but I know what you are trying to say. I think you would agree though the Jays are short on elite talent that is needed to be a true playoff contender.

 

[John_Havok]

57 minutes ago, BB17 said:

I’d say Schwarber is a tier above Santander offensively but I know what you are trying to say. I think you would agree though the Jays are short on elite talent that is needed to be a true playoff contender.

 

i would also agree with that statement. 

Tucker will be available via FA this upcoming offseason, I think there's a real chance he signs in Toronto with the money they have coming off the books. Plus, someone is gonna have to replace Springer's bat after 2026 and Springer's defense is noticeably declining now, though I think having Straw on the books really helps mitigate that problem to a point. Tucker is the perfect guy to do that.

I don't see Bo staying here as of today, but I reserve the right to change that opinion IF he returns to the Bo we saw prior to 2024. Heck, even 2025 Bo is a decent player, but without legit defensive prowess, his stick has to get that 20+ HR power back to be worth keeping IMO and really the power is all that's missing from his pre-2024 hitting metrics. 

I think Barger might turn out to be a decent contributor, but I'm not even close to ready to call him a core piece yet. 

As it stands, the only guys who have guaranteed contracts past 2027 are Vlad, Gimenez, Kirk, Yariel and Santander. Berrios could be unless he triggers his opt-out after 2026. Straw could be if his team options are picked up. Everyone else... could be FA, non-tendered, any number of things. I'd love to see Tucker added to that core group. 

 

[BB17]

3 minutes ago, John_Havok said:

i would also agree with that statement. 

Tucker will be available via FA this upcoming offseason, I think there's a real chance he signs in Toronto with the money they have coming off the books. Plus, someone is gonna have to replace Springer's bat after 2026 and Springer's defense is noticeably declining now, though I think having Straw on the books really helps mitigate that problem to a point. Tucker is the perfect guy to do that.

I don't see Bo staying here as of today, but I reserve the right to change that opinion IF he returns to the Bo we saw prior to 2024. Heck, even 2025 Bo is a decent player, but without legit defensive prowess, his stick has to get that 20+ HR power back to be worth keeping IMO and really the power is all that's missing from his pre-2024 hitting metrics. 

I think Barger might turn out to be a decent contributor, but I'm not even close to ready to call him a core piece yet. 

As it stands, the only guys who have guaranteed contracts past 2027 are Vlad, Gimenez, Kirk, Straw, Yariel and Santander. Berrios could be unless he triggers his opt-out after 2026. Everyone else... could be FA, non-tendered, any number of things. I'd love to see Tucker added to that core group. 

 

I’d love to see Tucker as well but the track record of players passing on Toronto in FA is pretty large so I honestly don’t see it. It would take a pretty big overpay to outbid the Cubs and Yankees and at that point it probably doesn’t make sense to sign him to that $.

[max silver]

1 hour ago, BB17 said:

I’d love to see Tucker as well but the track record of players passing on Toronto in FA is pretty large so I honestly don’t see it. It would take a pretty big overpay to outbid the Cubs and Yankees and at that point it probably doesn’t make sense to sign him to that $.

Yeah Tucker is going to be a awfully tough sign given the offensive improvements he's made the last few seasons. Schwarber would be a nice free agency target although that would force the team to use one of Schwarber/Santander in the field with regularity. 

[max silver]

1 hour ago, John_Havok said:

i would also agree with that statement. 

Tucker will be available via FA this upcoming offseason, I think there's a real chance he signs in Toronto with the money they have coming off the books. Plus, someone is gonna have to replace Springer's bat after 2026 and Springer's defense is noticeably declining now, though I think having Straw on the books really helps mitigate that problem to a point. Tucker is the perfect guy to do that.

I don't see Bo staying here as of today, but I reserve the right to change that opinion IF he returns to the Bo we saw prior to 2024. Heck, even 2025 Bo is a decent player, but without legit defensive prowess, his stick has to get that 20+ HR power back to be worth keeping IMO and really the power is all that's missing from his pre-2024 hitting metrics. 

I think Barger might turn out to be a decent contributor, but I'm not even close to ready to call him a core piece yet. 

As it stands, the only guys who have guaranteed contracts past 2027 are Vlad, Gimenez, Kirk, Yariel and Santander. Berrios could be unless he triggers his opt-out after 2026. Straw could be if his team options are picked up. Everyone else... could be FA, non-tendered, any number of things. I'd love to see Tucker added to that core group. 

 

It is starting to appear as though Barger is experiencing a breakout season, but I agree it's a bit early to make that determination at this point. I'm very encouraged with how he's slashed the chase rate by 10% prior to last season and subsequently dropped the strikeout rate by 10% as well. We shall see how sustainable these improvements are but it's remarkable that Barger managed to halve his chase rate compared to AAA prior to his callup. With how hard he's been hitting the ball combined with the underlying metrics he is giving himself a very good shot at sustained success at the plate. 

[Brownie19]

2 hours ago, BB17 said:

I’d say Schwarber is a tier above Santander offensively but I know what you are trying to say. I think you would agree though the Jays are short on elite talent that is needed to be a true playoff contender.

 

Yeah - he's Schwarber lite and yes, unless Bo turns the corner and starts hitting for power, we are short on star power.  We may still be short even if Bo rebounds.  Kirk and Gimenez are more valuable than they get credit for, but we need more offensively from both.

[John_Havok]

Side note, the Jays have 2 of the top 5 relievers in mlb in terms of K per 9 right now in Hoffman and Little. 

Definitely did not have that on my bingo card. 

As it stands now they have 3 top shelf guys in Jimi, Hoffman and Little. Fluharty is making a solid case too right now but his xfip is still a bit of a concern. Green is a bit stinky, Yariel had a rough start to the season but is looking much better recently. 

Swanson coming back and looking like his old self would be bloody amazing, Sandlin too.

[BB17]

1 hour ago, max silver said:

Yeah Tucker is going to be an awfully tough sign given the offensive improvements he's made the last few seasons. Schwarber would be a nice free agency target although that would force the team to use one of Schwarber/Santander in the field with regularity. 

Yeah I’m not sure you’d want to be playing Santander in the field for the next 3 years given what a Schwarber contract would look like. Might be fine for 1 year but Santander is only going to get older/slower.

1 hour ago, max silver said:

It is starting to appear as though Barger is experiencing a breakout season, but I agree it's a bit early to make that determination at this point. I'm very encouraged with how he's slashed the chase rate by 10% prior to last season and subsequently dropped the strikeout rate by 10% as well. We shall see how sustainable these improvements are but it's remarkable that Barger managed to halve his chase rate compared to AAA prior to his callup. With how hard he's been hitting the ball combined with the underlying metrics he is giving himself a very good shot at sustained success at the plate. 

Yeah he’s looked great of late, even in the field he’s been pretty good honestly. Seems like when he’s playing with confidence he’s at a new level.

Everything is going great for him right now but I’d like to see how he handles adversity/a slump before we can pencil him into a starting role for future years. Also need to see him play against LHP to see if he can be a full time player or if he’s more of a platoon guy.

His at bats have been fantastic though, even when he’s taking pitches you can tell he’s seeing the ball really well. I hope he can put it all together because he’s got the tools/upside that a lot of players in the org don’t have.

[BB17]

44 minutes ago, John_Havok said:

Side note, the Jays have 2 of the top 5 relievers in mlb in terms of K per 9 right now in Hoffman and Little. 

 

Definitely did not have that on my bingo card. 

As it stands now they have 3 top shelf guys in Jimi, Hoffman and Little. Fluharty is making a solid case too right now but his xfip is still a bit of a concern. Green is a bit stinky, Yariel had a rough start to the season but is looking much better recently. 

Swanson coming back and looking like his old self would be bloody amazing, Sandlin too.

If Yariel can show some consistency it would go a really long way to the pen having some nice depth and not needing to lean so heavily on the top 3 arms. Hes been great lately so hopefully he can keep it going. Far too often he would miss with uncompetitive pitches. 
 

Fluharty seems to have solidified himself enough to be a second lefty you aren’t afraid to throw in there. The deception seems to make his pitches play up a notch.

Not holding my breath on Swanson being healthy let alone effective when he comes back.
 

You just gotta hope the other guys can remain healthy. 

[Laika]

Why do people think Schneider is overworking the pen?

I guess it's just anecdotal since Hoffman had those extra inning games and then Garcia and Hoffman both had those blown games. 

Hoffman is 36th in baseball out of 188 qualified relievers in IP. 
He is 66th in pitches thrown out of 188 qualified relievers. 

Do people want John Schneider to not use his best relievers? 

The Jays' pen in total is 10th in baseball in IP (but this is a weird thing to look at in the opener era).

[Brownie19]

1 minute ago, Laika said:

Why do people think Schneider is overworking the pen?

I guess it's just anecdotal since Hoffman had those extra inning games and then Garcia and Hoffman both had those blown games. 

Hoffman is 36th in baseball out of 188 qualified relievers in IP. 
He is 66th in pitches thrown out of 188 qualified relievers. 

Do people want John Schneider to not use his best relievers? 

The Jays' pen in total is 10th in baseball in IP (but this is a weird thing to look at in the opener era).

Because we blew a couple of games and if you can't blame someone for that - what's the point of living?

[Omar]

1 hour ago, Laika said:

Why do people think Schneider is overworking the pen?

I guess it's just anecdotal since Hoffman had those extra inning games and then Garcia and Hoffman both had those blown games. 

Hoffman is 36th in baseball out of 188 qualified relievers in IP. 
He is 66th in pitches thrown out of 188 qualified relievers. 

Do people want John Schneider to not use his best relievers? 

The Jays' pen in total is 10th in baseball in IP (but this is a weird thing to look at in the opener era).

Hoffman, Green and Garcia are on pace to appear in 73 games this season. Little is on pace to appear in 81 games this season!  No reliever in baseball appeared in 80 games last season. You can't just look at innings pitched you gave to consider the wear a tear of getting up and warmed and entering a game. That's basic bullpen management. 

He's overworking his key arms early. 

[Orgfiller]

9 hours ago, BB17 said:

Yeah I’m not sure you’d want to be playing Santander in the field for the next 3 years given what a Schwarber contract would look like. Might be fine for 1 year but Santander is only going to get older/slower.

Yeah he’s looked great of late, even in the field he’s been pretty good honestly. Seems like when he’s playing with confidence he’s at a new level.

Everything is going great for him right now but I’d like to see how he handles adversity/a slump before we can pencil him into a starting role for future years. Also need to see him play against LHP to see if he can be a full time player or if he’s more of a platoon guy.

His at bats have been fantastic though, even when he’s taking pitches you can tell he’s seeing the ball really well. I hope he can put it all together because he’s got the tools/upside that a lot of players in the org don’t have.

To be fair, I'd call his first two weeks in the majors this season as undergoing a slump/adversity. It's all SSS, but he looked woeful in April, and a completely different hitter the last week or so.

[Laika]

2 minutes ago, Omar said:

Hoffman, Green and Garcia are on pace to appear in 73 games this season. Little is on pace to appear in 81 games this season!  No reliever in baseball appeared in 80 games last season. You can't just look at innings pitched you gave to consider the wear a tear of getting up and warmed and entering a game. That's basic bullpen management. 

He's overworking his key arms early. 

He's probably riding Little a bit too much especially considering he is young, but that's all I can give you. 

22 RP appeared in 70+ games last year. Specific game circumstances have made it appropriate to use Garcia and Hoffman basically every time that have appeared. Nothing irresponsible is going on - they are grizzly veterans! 

Being said, Y-Rod has probably earned a few more leverage innings. If you ignore his March 27th outing, season debut, where he gave up 2 HR, he has a 3.00 ERA and 3.84 FIP on the season. Chad Green has a 6.52 FIP and his Stuff+ has dipped below 100; I don't think Green can be trusted at all anymore and he should probably be RP6. 

 

 

[mphenhef]

1 hour ago, Laika said:

Why do people think Schneider is overworking the pen?

I guess it's just anecdotal since Hoffman had those extra inning games and then Garcia and Hoffman both had those blown games. 

Hoffman is 36th in baseball out of 188 qualified relievers in IP. 
He is 66th in pitches thrown out of 188 qualified relievers. 

Do people want John Schneider to not use his best relievers? 

The Jays' pen in total is 10th in baseball in IP (but this is a weird thing to look at in the opener era).

Appearances would be my guess.  We have 4 guys in the top 60 in relief appearances.  Of course, the Twins right now have 3 in the top 3 and ties so it could be worse.

[Laika]

1 minute ago, mphenhef said:

Appearances would be my guess.  We have 4 guys in the top 60 in relief appearances.  Of course, the Twins right now have 3 in the top 3 and ties so it could be worse.

I would be a bit concerned about Little throwing so much since he is young + he just spams that breaking ball so much 

[Terminator]

How's everyone feeling this morning after that big Mariners series this weekend?

[Brownie19]

21 minutes ago, Terminator said:

How's everyone feeling this morning after that big Mariners series this weekend?

[Laika]

26 minutes ago, Terminator said:

How's everyone feeling this morning after that big Mariners series this weekend?

Blissful 

Been looking at Barger's fancy stat rankings all day. Elite MaxEV and AvgEV. 

1	Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	TOR	177	120	93.0	120.4	8.1	17	14.2%	62	51.7%	.285	.306	.411	.498	.348	.387
2	Oneil Cruz	PIT	160	85	96.5	119.6	11.5	19	22.4%	52	61.2%	.238	.262	.462	.523	.363	.403
3	Shohei Ohtani	LAD	183	110	97.0	117.9	13.8	25	22.7%	73	66.4%	.308	.330	.641	.753	.442	.484
4	James Wood	WSN	182	109	93.7	117.9	3.2	17	15.6%	64	58.7%	.274	.261	.529	.544	.393	.388
5	Griffin Conine	MIA	71	45	91.6	117.4	8.8	7	15.6%	23	51.1%	.281	.255	.438	.429	.349	.331
6	Jhonkensy Noel	CLE	77	53	91.0	117.2	11.5	3	5.7%	24	45.3%	.164	.184	.274	.284	.207	.219
7	Aaron Judge	NYY	180	116	95.9	116.8	15.8	29	25.0%	67	57.8%	.409	.353	.779	.785	.532	.503
8	Kyle Schwarber	PHI	178	108	94.1	116.7	17.9	16	14.8%	63	58.3%	.269	.282	.593	.625	.427	.436
9	Noelvi Marte	CIN	73	56	89.2	116.7	11.8	3	5.4%	18	32.1%	.294	.242	.515	.427	.372	.312
10	Ryan Mountcastle	BAL	137	97	91.5	116.7	10.8	13	13.4%	50	51.5%	.227	.265	.336	.453	.265	.324
11	Jordan Walker	STL	131	78	90.9	116.5	12.1	4	5.1%	34	43.6%	.186	.194	.254	.307	.238	.260
12	Addison Barger	TOR	59	44	96.1	116.5	13.5	6	13.6%	23	52.3%	.241	.300	.407	.473	.315	.362
13	Junior Caminero	TBR	155	117	91.3	116.5	4.9	11	9.4%	58	49.6%	.248	.257	.434	.444	.307	.318
14	Hunter Goodman	COL	153	107	90.5	116.2	17.2	8	7.5%	52	48.6%	.288	.236	.489	.410	.365	.310
15	Luis Robert Jr.	CHW	152	85	89.3	115.8	18.3	10	11.8%	35	41.2%	.186	.236	.326	.407	.280	.326

 

#	Name	Team	PA	Events	EV	maxEV	LA	Barrels	Barrel%	HardHit	HardHit%	AVG	xBA	SLG	xSLG	wOBA	xwOBA
1	Shohei Ohtani	LAD	183	110	97.0	117.9	13.8	25	22.7%	73	66.4%	.308	.330	.641	.753	.442	.484
2	Oneil Cruz	PIT	160	85	96.5	119.6	11.5	19	22.4%	52	61.2%	.238	.262	.462	.523	.363	.403
3	Addison Barger	TOR	59	44	96.1	116.5	13.5	6	13.6%	23	52.3%	.241	.300	.407	.473	.315	.362
4	Aaron Judge	NYY	180	116	95.9	116.8	15.8	29	25.0%	67	57.8%	.409	.353	.779	.785	.532	.503
5	Rafael Devers	BOS	191	112	95.6	111.1	15.9	21	18.8%	69	61.6%	.280	.291	.490	.557	.385	.415
6	Pete Alonso	NYM	182	116	94.9	114.6	12.6	22	19.0%	67	57.8%	.320	.308	.613	.637	.448	.445
7	Gunnar Henderson	BAL	137	91	94.9	113.3	9.8	8	8.8%	51	56.0%	.264	.261	.473	.400	.336	.304

[Brownie19]

9 minutes ago, Laika said:

Blissful 

Been looking at Barger's fancy stat rankings all day. Elite MaxEV and AvgEV. 

1	Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	TOR	177	120	93.0	120.4	8.1	17	14.2%	62	51.7%	.285	.306	.411	.498	.348	.387
2	Oneil Cruz	PIT	160	85	96.5	119.6	11.5	19	22.4%	52	61.2%	.238	.262	.462	.523	.363	.403
3	Shohei Ohtani	LAD	183	110	97.0	117.9	13.8	25	22.7%	73	66.4%	.308	.330	.641	.753	.442	.484
4	James Wood	WSN	182	109	93.7	117.9	3.2	17	15.6%	64	58.7%	.274	.261	.529	.544	.393	.388
5	Griffin Conine	MIA	71	45	91.6	117.4	8.8	7	15.6%	23	51.1%	.281	.255	.438	.429	.349	.331
6	Jhonkensy Noel	CLE	77	53	91.0	117.2	11.5	3	5.7%	24	45.3%	.164	.184	.274	.284	.207	.219
7	Aaron Judge	NYY	180	116	95.9	116.8	15.8	29	25.0%	67	57.8%	.409	.353	.779	.785	.532	.503
8	Kyle Schwarber	PHI	178	108	94.1	116.7	17.9	16	14.8%	63	58.3%	.269	.282	.593	.625	.427	.436
9	Noelvi Marte	CIN	73	56	89.2	116.7	11.8	3	5.4%	18	32.1%	.294	.242	.515	.427	.372	.312
10	Ryan Mountcastle	BAL	137	97	91.5	116.7	10.8	13	13.4%	50	51.5%	.227	.265	.336	.453	.265	.324
11	Jordan Walker	STL	131	78	90.9	116.5	12.1	4	5.1%	34	43.6%	.186	.194	.254	.307	.238	.260
12	Addison Barger	TOR	59	44	96.1	116.5	13.5	6	13.6%	23	52.3%	.241	.300	.407	.473	.315	.362
13	Junior Caminero	TBR	155	117	91.3	116.5	4.9	11	9.4%	58	49.6%	.248	.257	.434	.444	.307	.318
14	Hunter Goodman	COL	153	107	90.5	116.2	17.2	8	7.5%	52	48.6%	.288	.236	.489	.410	.365	.310
15	Luis Robert Jr.	CHW	152	85	89.3	115.8	18.3	10	11.8%	35	41.2%	.186	.236	.326	.407	.280	.326

 

#	Name	Team	PA	Events	EV	maxEV	LA	Barrels	Barrel%	HardHit	HardHit%	AVG	xBA	SLG	xSLG	wOBA	xwOBA
1	Shohei Ohtani	LAD	183	110	97.0	117.9	13.8	25	22.7%	73	66.4%	.308	.330	.641	.753	.442	.484
2	Oneil Cruz	PIT	160	85	96.5	119.6	11.5	19	22.4%	52	61.2%	.238	.262	.462	.523	.363	.403
3	Addison Barger	TOR	59	44	96.1	116.5	13.5	6	13.6%	23	52.3%	.241	.300	.407	.473	.315	.362
4	Aaron Judge	NYY	180	116	95.9	116.8	15.8	29	25.0%	67	57.8%	.409	.353	.779	.785	.532	.503
5	Rafael Devers	BOS	191	112	95.6	111.1	15.9	21	18.8%	69	61.6%	.280	.291	.490	.557	.385	.415
6	Pete Alonso	NYM	182	116	94.9	114.6	12.6	22	19.0%	67	57.8%	.320	.308	.613	.637	.448	.445
7	Gunnar Henderson	BAL	137	91	94.9	113.3	9.8	8	8.8%	51	56.0%	.264	.261	.473	.400	.336	.304

Don't forget this.  Bring your sunglasses!

 

[Orgfiller]

1 hour ago, Laika said:

I would be a bit concerned about Little throwing so much since he is young + he just spams that breaking ball so much 

When you say young, do you mean MLB experience wise? Because he's thrown plenty of innings in his pro career, mostly at the minor league level. He's 28 so you probably want to ride him as much as often now while he's elite, before he either declines, suffers an injury, or just has the usual reliever volatility that makes him turn into a pumpkin overnight.

[Omar]

1 hour ago, Terminator said:

How's everyone feeling this morning after that big Mariners series this weekend?

Rays, Tigers and Padres coming up. 

We're about to be tested. Winning five of the next nine would be golden.  

[Terminator]

Adding Varsho and then replacing two struggling Buffalo Boys with two that are hitting (Wagner and Roden out and Barger and Lukes in) has been huge. The lineup is a lot deeper.

[Terminator]

11 minutes ago, Omar said:

Rays, Tigers and Padres coming up. 

We're about to be tested. Winning five of the next nine would be golden.  

We need to take it to the Rays. The pitching matchups are solid for us as we have Berrios-Bassitt-Gausman going.

That means that both of our gas cans (Francis and Urethra) will be throwing against the Tigers but if things hold it looks like we might avoid Skubal.

The series against the Padres will be their first stop on a road trip for them so hopefully the time change gives us a little boost.

A couple of off days mixed in with it being at home and hopefully we can play well. 5-4 would be just fine but anything better than that would be awesome. 

 

[Laika]

39 minutes ago, Orgfiller said:

When you say young, do you mean MLB experience wise? Because he's thrown plenty of innings in his pro career, mostly at the minor league level. He's 28 so you probably want to ride him as much as often now while he's elite, before he either declines, suffers an injury, or just has the usual reliever volatility that makes him turn into a pumpkin overnight.

legitimately thought he was more like 25 

[Laika]

1 hour ago, Brownie19 said:

Don't forget this.  Bring your sunglasses!

 

99th percentile power, arm, and girth 

[Orgfiller]

2 minutes ago, Laika said:

legitimately thought he was more like 25 

You probably fused him in your head with Fluharty, who's 23.

[Laika]

Toronto is now 9th in avgEV and 19th in barrel rate

A few weeks ago they were dead last or second last in these categories

Still 27th in baseball with only 30 homers as a team but they should slowly climb up that category too, for various reasons (Barger and Varsho, plus Vlad/Bo/Tony/Kirk heating up)

[G-Snarls]

Damn I want to win this series against Tampa soooo bad and catch the Sox in the process 

[Laika]

1 minute ago, Orgfiller said:

You probably fused him in your head with Fluharty, who's 23.

Ah yes the two faceless bargain bin AAA lefties who never should have been on the team, why are they getting innings over Chad Green, why are they facing tough lefties like Soto - Grant