General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2025)

[jaysblue]

The best game IMO that stood out and we need more of is like the second game against the Braves. What was the difference in that game? The longball with runners on made a difference. Jays ended up winning 6-3 thanks to home runs from Roden and Santander. That made the difference. Otherwise, the Jays likely only score 2-3 runs that game. 

[Laika]

It should be somewhat obvious from the absurdity of the results but the Jays are getting hella unlucky on offense so far this year per xwOBA and xStats. 

 

	G	PA	wOBA	xwOBA	wOBA - xwOBA	wRC+	WAR
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	24	106	0.339	0.422	-0.083	126	0.5
George Springer	22	78	0.411	0.392	0.019	177	0.7
Bo Bichette	24	112	0.315	0.389	-0.074	109	0.4
Tyler Heineman	8	27	0.542	0.344	0.198	272	0.8
Nathan Lukes	15	37	0.29	0.342	-0.052	91	0.1
Andrés Giménez	24	102	0.275	0.331	-0.056	80	0.2
Myles Straw	18	42	0.347	0.308	0.039	131	0.5
Will Wagner	17	59	0.254	0.28	-0.026	65	-0.2
Anthony Santander	23	102	0.257	0.269	-0.012	67	-0.3
Alejandro Kirk	18	72	0.252	0.267	-0.015	64	0.1
Davis Schneider	10	21	0.243	0.266	-0.023	57	0
Ernie Clement	23	61	0.238	0.259	-0.021	53	0.2
Alan Roden	22	71	0.276	0.226	0.05	81	0.2
Addison Barger	6	16	0.123	0.198	-0.075	-29	0

 

• Vlad, Bo, and Gimenez are core players doing good or great by xwOBA and not getting the results
• Hieneman and Straw are getting lucky but they are bench pieces 
• Springer is barely getting lucky and deserves his results 
• The rest of the gang are problematic and have bad expected stats but most other than Roden appear to also not be getting the bounces 

It is almost funny. Lots of belly-aching about the top 5 not performing. Well, only Santander is really lost. Generally speaking the other 4 are doing what you want them to do. 

[Laika]

On the contrary, the savant leaderboard of the team level stats only points to very marginal bad luck when looking at xwOBA and xwOBACON

I guess that's what a worst in the league barrel rate will do. 

I f***ing hate this team

[glory]

2 hours ago, Stangstag said:

It really just seems like this front office is behind the curve when it comes to offensive evaluations 

I remember reading a blurb posted here from Baseball America last year about Barger, where after his great 2022 they had him change his approach to improve his contact rates at the expense of launch angle. So he was making more contact but it was on the ground or line drives. I think they just overvalue contact, even if it’s weak contact, and I don’t know how a team in 2025 can feel that way. 

I think the new hitting coach is helping but the FO went too far deep into the contact hitting where squeezing power out of this group is going to be next to impossible, unfortunately. It’s why Springer has been fixed (so far) but the results for Wagner, Roden, etc, aren’t there. You actually have to have some power potential to develop it. That’s why I’m hoping Barger plays more, but he’s likely a 30% K% type of player so this team may not value that enough to give him a fair look.

[Stangstag]

1 hour ago, glory said:

I remember reading a blurb posted here from Baseball America last year about Barger, where after his great 2022 they had him change his approach to improve his contact rates at the expense of launch angle. So he was making more contact but it was on the ground or line drives. I think they just overvalue contact, even if it’s weak contact, and I don’t know how a team in 2025 can feel that way. 

I think the new hitting coach is helping but the FO went too far deep into the contact hitting where squeezing power out of this group is going to be next to impossible, unfortunately. It’s why Springer has been fixed (so far) but the results for Wagner, Roden, etc, aren’t there. You actually have to have some power potential to develop it. That’s why I’m hoping Barger plays more, but he’s likely a 30% K% type of player so this team may not value that enough to give him a fair look.

Yeah this is how I feel too. Seems the org made a dramatic shift after 2022 to value contact above all else. And for the 3rd straight year, it doesn’t look like its working.

…What losing a playoff series to a JP Crawford blooper does to a mf haha

[Laika]

5 minutes ago, Stangstag said:

Yeah this is how I feel too. Seems the org made a dramatic shift after 2022 to value contact above all else. And for the 3rd straight year, it doesn’t look like its working.

…What losing a playoff series to a JP Crawford blooper does to a mf haha

2022 being the year they rostered Tapia and traded for Whit Merrifield 
2023 they continue the trend with KK and Clement also sneaks onto the roster
2024 we see Clement and Justin Turner, IKF signed, Wagner acquired, and we also see the development philosophy mirror the acquisitions as Horwitz and Leo Jimenez trickle up 
2025 and of course this year Gimenez and Roden and Straw continue the trend 

Yes they also signed Santander and guys like Belt, traded for Varsho in here. But the balance of things seems to really favour these slap hitters. We also have the developmental stories trending that way - Bo's loss of HR power, Kirk's loss of HR power, Schneider not holding success as a guy with effective power, Springer doing weird s*** and slapping balls around, Vlad intermittently forgetting he has power, Barger being told to make contact. Jansen leaving in favour of Kirk (profile preference). Teoscar being dumped (profile preference). Chapman leaving in FA. 

Diseased. 

I think they must see some sort of market inefficiency with some of these profiles. Guys with quit tools who make contact and hit line drives. Traditionally harder to project. Easy to acquire. 

[Terminator]

Matt Chapman was another guy they let go.

You know they loved his defense at 3B but he's a power hitter not a slap hitter so he wasn't a fit

[glory]

52 minutes ago, Laika said:

2022 being the year they rostered Tapia and traded for Whit Merrifield 
2023 they continue the trend with KK and Clement also sneaks onto the roster
2024 we see Clement and Justin Turner, IKF signed, Wagner acquired, and we also see the development philosophy mirror the acquisitions as Horwitz and Leo Jimenez trickle up 
2025 and of course this year Gimenez and Roden and Straw continue the trend 

Yes they also signed Santander and guys like Belt, traded for Varsho in here. But the balance of things seems to really favour these slap hitters. We also have the developmental stories trending that way - Bo's loss of HR power, Kirk's loss of HR power, Schneider not holding success as a guy with effective power, Springer doing weird s*** and slapping balls around, Vlad intermittently forgetting he has power, Barger being told to make contact. Jansen leaving in favour of Kirk (profile preference). Teoscar being dumped (profile preference). Chapman leaving in FA. 

Diseased. 

I think they must see some sort of market inefficiency with some of these profiles. Guys with quit tools who make contact and hit line drives. Traditionally harder to project. Easy to acquire. 

Yeah it's possible this contact obsession was always there, we just never noticed it because the team (especially in 2021-22) was actually hitting dingers. Now that the power hitters were phased out and they've tripled down on line drives and contact, it's become a lot more noticeable. Even looking at Grichuk, his ISO dropped every year from 2018-2021, but so did his K%. He was acquired as a 30% K% player, and by the end of his Jays tenure he was down to 20%, but lost a lot of his power as well. I'm sure if I google it there will be "Jays have tinkered with Grichuk's swing" stories from that time period. Teo is really the one true development success story looking back.

 

38 minutes ago, Terminator said:

Matt Chapman was another guy they let go.

You know they loved his defense at 3B but he's a power hitter not a slap hitter so he wasn't a fit

Teo gone, replaced by KK. Chapman gone, replaced by f'n IKF. Schneider hitting like Babe Ruth for two months but losing playing time to Craig's son. 

These guys have been hiding in plain sight. What a damn mess.

[Spanky99]

32 minutes ago, Terminator said:

Matt Chapman was another guy they let go.

You know they loved his defense at 3B but he's a power hitter not a slap hitter so he wasn't a fit

They did offer Chapman a lucrative deal, Chappy didn't want to stay here.

[BB17]

26 minutes ago, Spanky99 said:

They did offer Chapman a lucrative deal, Chappy didn't want to stay here.

Sucks because him on this team would be such a massive massive upgrade. Hes exactly what this team needs lol.

[Terminator]

I am going to get absolutely tarred and feathered over this take BUT here it goes

Nathan Lukes is looking pretty interesting:

• .342 xwOBA this season, dragged down by a .200 BABIP
• K% of 13.5% and BB% of 10.8%
• Steamer projects a 114 wRC+ to go with his career wRC+ of 110 so far
• His updated Steamer600 is 2.5 WAR but I think it underrates his defense a lot
• Zips (which likes his defense and his bat) projects him for 2 WAR ROS in just 79 games

It's going to be interesting to see what they do when Varsho returns.

Roden, Barger, Wagner and Lukes are all grouped so closely together. But I think you could make the case that Lukes should stick over those guys. 

[BB17]

26 minutes ago, Terminator said:

I am going to get absolutely tarred and feathered over this take BUT here it goes

Nathan Lukes is looking pretty interesting:

• .342 xwOBA this season, dragged down by a .200 BABIP
• K% of 13.5% and BB% of 10.8%
• Steamer projects a 114 wRC+ to go with his career wRC+ of 110 so far
• His updated Steamer600 is 2.5 WAR but I think it underrates his defense a lot
• Zips (which likes his defense and his bat) projects him for 2 WAR ROS in just 79 games

It's going to be interesting to see what they do when Varsho returns.

Roden, Barger, Wagner and Lukes are all grouped so closely together. But I think you could make the case that Lukes should stick over those guys. 

He's a good player in isolation problem is the Jays have too many of these same type of low K/low power platoon type guys. He's probably better than Roden and Wagner right now but he doesn't offer much upside with his age/tools. Barger at least you can dream on/if he figures it out you have an above average regular.

The Lukes/Ernies of the world are fine as injury replacements/depth players when you have stars carrying the roster. But you're kind of seeing what happens when you have a team of all the same type which is a .500 ballclub,

[Brownie19]

Can/should we give Barger reps/starts at 3rd base?

[BB17]

Just now, Brownie19 said:

Can/should we give Barger reps/starts at 3rd base?

He had quite a few errors in the minors in the infield to start the year. I thought he has looked pretty good in RF honestly. The arm alone is worth a few runs saved even if the routes/tracking isn't great. Basically that was Bautstia in the 2010s.

I also wonder if putting him at 3rd takes away from his offence a bit.

[Orgfiller]

41 minutes ago, Terminator said:

I am going to get absolutely tarred and feathered over this take BUT here it goes

Nathan Lukes is looking pretty interesting:

• .342 xwOBA this season, dragged down by a .200 BABIP
• K% of 13.5% and BB% of 10.8%
• Steamer projects a 114 wRC+ to go with his career wRC+ of 110 so far
• His updated Steamer600 is 2.5 WAR but I think it underrates his defense a lot
• Zips (which likes his defense and his bat) projects him for 2 WAR ROS in just 79 games

It's going to be interesting to see what they do when Varsho returns.

Roden, Barger, Wagner and Lukes are all grouped so closely together. But I think you could make the case that Lukes should stick over those guys. 

It's weird that they continue to sit Barger, which makes me think he's the one heading down once Varsho returns to the team. I thought Lukes was a shoo-in for a demotion but his performance and the fact that he won't care whether he's playing or not might keep him on the roster for a bit longer.

[Orgfiller]

10 minutes ago, Brownie19 said:

Can/should we give Barger reps/starts at 3rd base?

Barger is one of the stiffest dudes I can think of, so I think the infield dream for him is over. The arm is excellent but I just don't think he can move laterally very well, and I shudder remembering what he looked like at third last season.

[Terminator]

24 minutes ago, Brownie19 said:

Can/should we give Barger reps/starts at 3rd base?

I think you have to consider it with Wagner performing the way he is. They both seem to suck at 3B defense so whichever one is hitting should stay to share time with Clement. 

[Terminator]

52 minutes ago, BB17 said:

He's a good player in isolation problem is the Jays have too many of these same type of low K/low power platoon type guys. He's probably better than Roden and Wagner right now but he doesn't offer much upside with his age/tools. Barger at least you can dream on/if he figures it out you have an above average regular.

The Lukes/Ernies of the world are fine as injury replacements/depth players when you have stars carrying the roster. But you're kind of seeing what happens when you have a team of all the same type which is a .500 ballclub,

I don't disagree with the sentiment here but Lukes might not be a run of the mill bench player is my point. It's rare, but old guys do break out every season.

His ROS Zips projection right now is 2 WAR in 296 plate appearances. His "Zips600" for him is over 4 WAR!

Yes, that WAR value isn't coming from him hitting for power. But does it matter? It's not like he's projected to be a bad offensive player, it's just built more around his OBP (remember how important this stat used to be?) and his defense

I'd take 3 WAR out of a good defender with a .333 OBP over a 1.5 WAR player who hits 25 bombs but has a .310 OBP and sucks at defense, not that we even have that choice right now anyway

[John_Havok]

15 hours ago, Brownie19 said:

Remember the quote from the new hitting coach?  Something about how he was preaching violent aggression or some bullsh*t.

My personal opinion was the team decided to target players with better hit tools, figuring that's the hardest thing to teach.  They can help them with launch angles and help them add power (which typically happens as they reach their prime).  They probably think the hit tool is more effective against the high velo world we now live in.

In theory, it doesn't seem like a terrible approach.  But it is.  It f*cking blows goats and isn't working.

Popkins does preach the power. he came up through the Dodgers system so i have faith he knows what he wants to do. 

Its whether or not the players he has are capable. Springer seems to be the only one who's been able to make noticeable approach changes from last year. 

[Brownie19]

1 hour ago, BB17 said:

He had quite a few errors in the minors in the infield to start the year. I thought he has looked pretty good in RF honestly. The arm alone is worth a few runs saved even if the routes/tracking isn't great. Basically that was Bautstia in the 2010s.

I also wonder if putting him at 3rd takes away from his offence a bit.

He's hitting 0.067 with a -29 wRC+ while playing RF.  You think playing 3rd may take away from his offense?

[jaysblue]

Makes sense to send Wagner and Roden down when Varsho is ready. Keep Lukes up as a 4th outfielder and like Term said, he doesn't have to play everyday. Seems like the role fits him fine.

Get Roden and Wagner everyday AB's in Buffalo and let them rebuild some confidence. They should have been starting in Buffalo to begin with ideally. 

Would start Clement at 3B. At least he has a glove. It's not like Wagner is playing any better offensively anyways. 

Would keep Barger around and get him some reps in the OF when Santander and Springer DH and maybe a bit at 3B and use Clement as a defensive late inning replacement. Would like to see Barger get more playing time and see what he could do. Think there are ways to be creative and to get his bat in the lineup almost everyday, while rotating guys like Santander/Springer through the DH spot. 

 

[mphenhef]

23 hours ago, Laika said:

2022 being the year they rostered Tapia and traded for Whit Merrifield 
2023 they continue the trend with KK and Clement also sneaks onto the roster
2024 we see Clement and Justin Turner, IKF signed, Wagner acquired, and we also see the development philosophy mirror the acquisitions as Horwitz and Leo Jimenez trickle up 
2025 and of course this year Gimenez and Roden and Straw continue the trend 

Yes they also signed Santander and guys like Belt, traded for Varsho in here. But the balance of things seems to really favour these slap hitters. We also have the developmental stories trending that way - Bo's loss of HR power, Kirk's loss of HR power, Schneider not holding success as a guy with effective power, Springer doing weird s*** and slapping balls around, Vlad intermittently forgetting he has power, Barger being told to make contact. Jansen leaving in favour of Kirk (profile preference). Teoscar being dumped (profile preference). Chapman leaving in FA. 

Diseased. 

I think they must see some sort of market inefficiency with some of these profiles. Guys with quit tools who make contact and hit line drives. Traditionally harder to project. Easy to acquire. 

Don't forget Bringing Mattingly into the organization prior to 2023.

[Brownie19]

10 hours ago, jaysblue said:

Makes sense to send Wagner and Roden down when Varsho is ready. Keep Lukes up as a 4th outfielder and like Term said, he doesn't have to play everyday. Seems like the role fits him fine.

Get Roden and Wagner everyday AB's in Buffalo and let them rebuild some confidence. They should have been starting in Buffalo to begin with ideally. 

Would start Clement at 3B. At least he has a glove. It's not like Wagner is playing any better offensively anyways. 

Would keep Barger around and get him some reps in the OF when Santander and Springer DH and maybe a bit at 3B and use Clement as a defensive late inning replacement. Would like to see Barger get more playing time and see what he could do. Think there are ways to be creative and to get his bat in the lineup almost everyday, while rotating guys like Santander/Springer through the DH spot. 

I'd be on board with this.  Seemingly you need to hit .650+ in Buffalo to become an average platoon bat in the majors.  

It can't hurt to get Wagner and Roden in an environment where they aren't completely overwhelmed.  I must admit that Roden doesn't pass the eye test at all.  His wrist/grip seems really unnatural and unconventional, as does this bat path.  Obviously there are always outliers, but you don't see many quality big leaguers swing like that.

[Laika]

29 minutes ago, Brownie19 said:

I'd be on board with this.  Seemingly you need to hit .650+ in Buffalo to become an average platoon bat in the majors.  

It can't hurt to get Wagner and Roden in an environment where they aren't completely overwhelmed.  I must admit that Roden doesn't pass the eye test at all.  His wrist/grip seems really unnatural and unconventional, as does this bat path.  Obviously there are always outliers, but you don't see many quality big leaguers swing like that.

I expected Roden to be a decent hitter but bring nothing else to the table. 

Funny how he is the exact opposite so far. He has been a better fielder, thrower, runner than expected but he has been a putrid hitter in every way other than the ability to make contact. 

100% they should be keeping Lukes around once Varsho is back since he is better suited for a 4th OF role anyway. Wagner may survive since he covers 3B/1B

[Brownie19]

39 minutes ago, Laika said:

I expected Roden to be a decent hitter but bring nothing else to the table. 

Funny how he is the exact opposite so far. He has been a better fielder, thrower, runner than expected but he has been a putrid hitter in every way other than the ability to make contact. 

100% they should be keeping Lukes around once Varsho is back since he is better suited for a 4th OF role anyway. Wagner may survive since he covers 3B/1B

How sad is that.  "Well we can't send Wagner down - we need his limp d*ck bat at first when Vlad needs a break from such a strenuous defensive position".

 

[Laika]

haha it's more like this - he still projects will with the bat and you can platoon him with Clement at 3B, who isn't exactly taking grab of the job 

[glory]

I'm still curious how any human being or computer system thought Will Wagner was going to have a ~120 wRC+ in 2025. The knock on Wagner when acquired was that he doesn't hit the ball with any real damage and hits a lot of ground balls. He just has great bat to ball skills, which obviously makes Ross Atkins have to cross his legs to avoid his excitement showing, but I don't see how that translates to a well above average offensive player. Maybe I'm wrong and he turns into Arraez or something, but the fact that the FO throws his name around like a top prospect is sad. He'd be a nice option at 3B only because the Jays literally have no one else, so a ~100 wRC+ slap hitting 3B is probably an upgrade on this team, but he has a ways to go to be league average with the bat at this point. 

Looking at the system (AA and AAA) is kinda depressing. Only player who looks like they could help is Clase, but he's not hitting the ball hard at all so probably facing a similar reality check once he sees MLB pitching consistently. 

[Brownie19]

48 minutes ago, glory said:

I'm still curious how any human being or computer system thought Will Wagner was going to have a ~120 wRC+ in 2025. The knock on Wagner when acquired was that he doesn't hit the ball with any real damage and hits a lot of ground balls. He just has great bat to ball skills, which obviously makes Ross Atkins have to cross his legs to avoid his excitement showing, but I don't see how that translates to a well above average offensive player. Maybe I'm wrong and he turns into Arraez or something, but the fact that the FO throws his name around like a top prospect is sad. He'd be a nice option at 3B only because the Jays literally have no one else, so a ~100 wRC+ slap hitting 3B is probably an upgrade on this team, but he has a ways to go to be league average with the bat at this point. 

Looking at the system (AA and AAA) is kinda depressing. Only player who looks like they could help is Clase, but he's not hitting the ball hard at all so probably facing a similar reality check once he sees MLB pitching consistently. 

I mean SSS, but his statcast page was at least quite red last year.  He was able to do damage.  But it's ice cold blue so far this year.  Any current rosey projection systems must not be taking that type of thing into account.  There's almost no signs he's going to turn it around anytime soon.

He obviously needs to make some serious adjustments if he's going to stick.  The question is - where's the best place to make them.

[Laika]

23 minutes ago, glory said:

I'm still curious how any human being or computer system thought Will Wagner was going to have a ~120 wRC+ in 2025. The knock on Wagner when acquired was that he doesn't hit the ball with any real damage and hits a lot of ground balls. He just has great bat to ball skills, which obviously makes Ross Atkins have to cross his legs to avoid his excitement showing, but I don't see how that translates to a well above average offensive player. Maybe I'm wrong and he turns into Arraez or something, but the fact that the FO throws his name around like a top prospect is sad. He'd be a nice option at 3B only because the Jays literally have no one else, so a ~100 wRC+ slap hitting 3B is probably an upgrade on this team, but he has a ways to go to be league average with the bat at this point. 

Looking at the system (AA and AAA) is kinda depressing. Only player who looks like they could help is Clase, but he's not hitting the ball hard at all so probably facing a similar reality check once he sees MLB pitching consistently. 

Something about what he did and how he did it that just gives the projection systems a boner. Big sample size, upper levels, results and good K and BB rates in MiLB, then backed it up for the most part in a small MLB sample. Spencer Horwitz did similar things and projected well on the strength of it. 

To be fair to some of these guys (Wagner, Roden, Clement) we are talking about 60-70 cold April plate appearances. It's completely possible they get more rope and it clicks and they end up having solid years. 

[G-Snarls]

2025 so far

 

Alex Bregman 159 wRC+ with 4 HR

Pete Alonso 206 wRC+ with 6 HR

 

Sorry, but f*** f*** f*** f***ING s*** f*** PISS

 

However, neither of them wanted to come here so what can you do