General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2025)

[Jimcanuck]

Anyway this little diversion into cumulative probability just goes to show the inherent randomness of baseball outcomes (unless you are the Dodgers, disrupting the natural order of things)

[BatFlip]

3 hours ago, Brownie19 said:

I think the probability of some of those events is higher than 50%.  But fair, based on the math, it's still a low chance all those events happen.

I would also opine that I'm not sure all those things need to happen for us to make the playoffs - and there's also other good events that could happen that would increase our odds (like one of Orelvis, Wagner, Roden, Barger breaking out).

That said - I'm not optimistic about our chances.  The baseball gods don't seem to like the Jays these days.

 

It's kind of a silly simplistic exercise he's trying to run us through - there are obviously many factors  beyond what was listed (many are not foreseeable) that could impact the Jay's playoff hopes.

Any estimate at us making the playoffs is a crapshoot of an exercise, but it's obviously much higher than a couple %, lol.   I would say they have a pretty decent shot if they can find a way to add another bat.

 

[Jimcanuck]

1 hour ago, BatFlip said:

It's kind of a silly simplistic exercise he's trying to run us through - there are obviously many factors  beyond what was listed (many are not foreseeable) that could impact the Jay's playoff hopes.

Any estimate at us making the playoffs is a crapshoot of an exercise, but it's obviously much higher than a couple %, lol.   I would say they have a pretty decent shot if they can find a way to add another bat.

 

Well, obviously.  I was responding to the post in question that listed 5 events and ended with "playoffs will be easy to make."

Nowhere did I give a probability of the Jays making the playoffs, only the probability of all 5 of those events happening at the same time.

Context matters.

[Terminator]

18 hours ago, Masterbather said:

Awesome, now do the Jays too, but do it as if you weren't a complete homer.

That one is obvious and is discussed daily

Old, expensive and no farm on top of a mid-80s win projection with their best players headed for FA

[BatFlip]

2 hours ago, Jimcanuck said:

Well, obviously.  I was responding to the post in question that listed 5 events and ended with "playoffs will be easy to make."

Nowhere did I give a probability of the Jays making the playoffs, only the probability of all 5 of those events happening at the same time.

Context matters.

Ok. Great job on the math Jim!  

[Jimcanuck]

9 minutes ago, BatFlip said:

Ok. Great job on the math Jim!  

Thanks.  Work on your comprehension.

[Omar]

3 hours ago, Jimcanuck said:

Well, obviously.  I was responding to the post in question that listed 5 events and ended with "playoffs will be easy to make."

Nowhere did I give a probability of the Jays making the playoffs, only the probability of all 5 of those events happening at the same time.

Context matters.

For a guy who is a regular on these boards you're not aware of your the "playoffs will be easy to make"  mantra?

[Jimcanuck]

1 hour ago, Omar said:

For a guy who is a regular on these boards you're not aware of your the "playoffs will be easy to make"  mantra?

Eastcoastjaysfan started that

[Spanky99]

dEaNmIkEsReAlLyPiSt!!! 😅🤡🦤

[Jays24]

Report: Padres open to trading Bogaerts, Cronenworth -https://www.thescore.com/mlb/news/3213842/amp

 

[Laika]

Yeah no s*** they are open to trading Boogers. That's an ugly ass contract. 

2 WAR in 2024 and projects for just 3 now. 

9 years and $225M remaining on the deal. 

It's like if George Springer got 11 / $280M instead of 6 / $150M 

[Brownie19]

1 hour ago, Jays24 said:

Report: Padres open to trading Bogaerts, Cronenworth -https://www.thescore.com/mlb/news/3213842/amp

 

Wow - someone is out of things to write about...

[Brownie19]

Blue Jays signed C Matt Whatley to a minor league contract with an invitation to spring training.

Whatley heads to Toronto as extra organizational catching depth for Triple-A Buffalo after spending the previous four years in the Rangers’ system. The 29-year-old backstop was a third-round selection in the 2017 MLB Draft out of Oral Roberts University and hasn’t ascended to the majors. He compiled a lackluster .199/.295/.319 triple-slash line with five homers and four steals in 164 plate appearances last year for Triple-A Round Rock.

[wilko]

2 minutes ago, Brownie19 said:

Blue Jays signed C Matt Whatley to a minor league contract with an invitation to spring training.

Whatley heads to Toronto as extra organizational catching depth for Triple-A Buffalo after spending the previous four years in the Rangers’ system. The 29-year-old backstop was a third-round selection in the 2017 MLB Draft out of Oral Roberts University and hasn’t ascended to the majors. He compiled a lackluster .199/.295/.319 triple-slash line with five homers and four steals in 164 plate appearances last year for Triple-A Round Rock.

[jaysblue]

3 hours ago, Brownie19 said:

Blue Jays signed C Matt Whatley to a minor league contract with an invitation to spring training.

Whatley heads to Toronto as extra organizational catching depth for Triple-A Buffalo after spending the previous four years in the Rangers’ system. The 29-year-old backstop was a third-round selection in the 2017 MLB Draft out of Oral Roberts University and hasn’t ascended to the majors. He compiled a lackluster .199/.295/.319 triple-slash line with five homers and four steals in 164 plate appearances last year for Triple-A Round Rock.

 

3 hours ago, wilko said:

[Terminator]

6 hours ago, Laika said:

Yeah no s*** they are open to trading Boogers. That's an ugly ass contract. 

2 WAR in 2024 and projects for just 3 now. 

9 years and $225M remaining on the deal. 

It's like if George Springer got 11 / $280M instead of 6 / $150M 

9 years left on that deal and he’s already 32. lol wowzers

[Laika]

7 hours ago, Terminator said:

9 years left on that deal and he’s already 32. lol wowzers

Padres are a mess 

Machado 11/$350M beginning age 30. 32 now and 9 years left.

Boogers 9 years left and 32.

Darvish 38 still owed 4/$67M. Doesn't like baseball anymore, just took half the year off due to anhedonia.

Musgrove 3/$60M left and broken 

Cronenworth, 31, 6 years left and is a mediocre slap 1B/2B

[Pendleton]

26 minutes ago, Laika said:

Padres are a mess 

Machado 11/$350M beginning age 30. 32 now and 9 years left.

Boogers 9 years left and 32.

Darvish 38 still owed 4/$67M. Doesn't like baseball anymore, just took half the year off due to anhedonia.

Musgrove 3/$60M left and broken 

Cronenworth, 31, 6 years left and is a mediocre slap 1B/2B

 

People talk as though the Jays hands are similarly tied by bloated/aging contracts but the Padres are in way worse shape. Plus they've decimated their farm with all the trades, and have to play in a division with the Dodgers - bleak outlook 

[Laika]

1 hour ago, Pendleton said:

 

People talk as though the Jays hands are similarly tied by bloated/aging contracts but the Padres are in way worse shape. Plus they've decimated their farm with all the trades, and have to play in a division with the Dodgers - bleak outlook 

Jays are golden. 

Santander's deal is moderate and backloaded so it can't be an obstacle. Gimenez is so young it won't be an issue. The only other money committed past 2026 is to Hoffman (one year) YRod (one year) and Berrios. 

Berrios is really the only one that seems like it could be an ugly contract from here on. But something funny is going on with him. His Stuff+ and K rate are down in the last three years so his FIP and fWAR are lagging... but he is giving up runs much like his whole career. 4.17 ERA in the AL East in the last 3 years vs. 4.04 ERA for his entire career before 2022. 

4.6 fWAR across the last three seasons but 7.2 RA9WAR. 

Has he become an ugly FIP beater somehow? Probably not but this isn't a tiny sample size. #6 in MLB in IP across the last two years with a 3.63 ERA. I am not buying what fWAR as selling here at least not entirely - it says he is worse than Mikolas, Kyle Gibson, and Brady Singer and we are talking about a nearly 400 IP sample. 

[Laika]

Say what you want about Atkins and Shapiro but other than the depressing farm system, if they were fired today the Jays would still be in a good long term position. By which I mean, a healthy long term financial position. Mr. New GM would have most of the budget to play with, soon. 

[Jimcanuck]

Berrios is the lucky recipient of world class defense.

[L54]

Jays are fine, Padres have operated like Mike Illitch the last 3-4 years 

[glory]

Yeah the Jays financial picture is pretty solid, especially for a luxury tax paying team. If Berrios opts out (spoiler: he won't) then it's even better. Either way, the front office hasn't gone bonkers trying to field a contender even when their jobs are (presumably) on the line so it's a team that should have an easier time pivoting if 2025 were to go south. 

[BB17]

4 hours ago, Pendleton said:

 

People talk as though the Jays hands are similarly tied by bloated/aging contracts but the Padres are in way worse shape. Plus they've decimated their farm with all the trades, and have to play in a division with the Dodgers - bleak outlook 

Padres are in bad but Id take the NL West 100 times out of 100 compared to the AL East. As good as the Dodgers are the Rockies are incompetent. 

[jerb]

 

[Pendleton]

 

[Stangstag]

20 hours ago, Terminator said:

9 years left on that deal and he’s already 32. lol wowzers

Just wait til Vlad is in the same situation 

[glory]

11 minutes ago, Stangstag said:

Just wait til Vlad is in the same situation 

Curious to see what the years are if the Jays and Vlad do agree on a deal. A 10 year extension would take him through age 36. An 11 year extension takes him through age 37. You're still likely to see some dead money in that scenario, but no where near the "AJ Preller on a coke binge" type of contracts that the Padres were handing out a couple of years ago. I think the ideal scenario might be a big extension with an opt out after year 4 or 5 so Vlad can hit the market again at age 30 or 31. At that point you hope he opts out so you get the best remaining years of his career without the back end. 

[Stangstag]

1 hour ago, glory said:

Curious to see what the years are if the Jays and Vlad do agree on a deal. A 10 year extension would take him through age 36. An 11 year extension takes him through age 37. You're still likely to see some dead money in that scenario, but no where near the "AJ Preller on a coke binge" type of contracts that the Padres were handing out a couple of years ago. I think the ideal scenario might be a big extension with an opt out after year 4 or 5 so Vlad can hit the market again at age 30 or 31. At that point you hope he opts out so you get the best remaining years of his career without the back end. 

Pretty sure he’ll get like 13/14 years

[Gen.Disarray]

I think we're looking at $450mil over 12 years