General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2025)

[BB17]

38 minutes ago, Terminator said:

We could definitely use a big bat that’s more reliable. But given the guys we’ve got it needs to be a pretty big addition otherwise I might not bother. 
 

Wagner’s projections are nuts and he hits left handed which is what we need. He can DH and Taters can play LF. It’s going to be hard to find someone that fits in better than that even if you’d like more power than what Wagner provides. 

I suppose you could look at 3B but with Clement there it’s kind of the same situation.

Even LF has some decent internal options.

i might add a Kimbrel or Chafin or something and call it good until the deadline. 

 

 

With Santander, Varsho and Gimenez now on the roster the need for a LHB isn't that glaring. I know what you mean though, unless you are getting a clear upgrade may as well see what ride the hot hand of one of the many rookies. Even Schneider could have a bounce back..

Bullpen probably is the easiest to upgrade as you can never have enough arms. Guys like Zach Pop shouldn't see meaningful innings so getting another guy who can pitch leverage would be a good idea. Not like the back end of the bullpen is without medical risk either.

[GoBlue41]

22 minutes ago, wilko said:

Good. Signing Bregman longterm would be gross. 

I think he's just bluffing. He still wants Bregman but wants Bregman to hurry up and make a decision. The only way to do that is to make him think the Jays are moving on.  At least that's my hope! :) 

[L54]

I’d love to get JDM at like 8M 

[Orgfiller]

20 minutes ago, L54 said:

I’d love to get JDM at like 8M 

If 29 year old Yoan Moncada is getting 1/$5MM then I can't see JDM topping this number honestly.

[G-Snarls]

51 minutes ago, Laika said:

Hard to think of trade targets though, other than Luis Robert. You can peruse the depth charts of would-be sellers and all you really see are bums like Ryan McMahon and Ke'Bryan Hayes or contracts you don't want like Bryan Reynolds, Arenado, and uhhh Ke'Bryan Hayes and Ryan McMahon as well. 

The A's will suck and have a handful of 3 WAR bats but no reason to sell any of them. 
The Angels are going for it lol so Taylor Ward is probably a deadline target. Likewise, doubt the Cardinals sell guys like Nootbaar yet. 

Is there a salary dump trade like the Gimenez one available with another contender? Or a challenge trade of depth bats? Would you roll the dice on Rhys Hoskins and his 1 WAR projection ($17M AAV) if the Brewers ate half of the contract? 

Looks like the assignment will be to get in the playoff hunt with the current group. There will be more options at the deadline, maybe. The Cards and Angels and other teams might be decided sellers then. 

Despite all of the changes the 2025 season still largely rests on Vlad + wishcasting for bounce backs from multiple former stars. 

Atkins LOVES to surprise everyone with trades that no one saw coming

[L54]

21 minutes ago, Orgfiller said:

If 29 year old Yoan Moncada is getting 1/$5MM then I can't see JDM topping this number honestly.

The cost will be small enough that it’s worth the gamble that he can hit cleanup and pinch hit when he’s not DH’ing 

[glory]

1 hour ago, Laika said:

Hard to think of trade targets though, other than Luis Robert. You can peruse the depth charts of would-be sellers and all you really see are bums like Ryan McMahon and Ke'Bryan Hayes or contracts you don't want like Bryan Reynolds, Arenado, and uhhh Ke'Bryan Hayes and Ryan McMahon as well. 

The A's will suck and have a handful of 3 WAR bats but no reason to sell any of them. 
The Angels are going for it lol so Taylor Ward is probably a deadline target. Likewise, doubt the Cardinals sell guys like Nootbaar yet. 

Is there a salary dump trade like the Gimenez one available with another contender? Or a challenge trade of depth bats? Would you roll the dice on Rhys Hoskins and his 1 WAR projection ($17M AAV) if the Brewers ate half of the contract? 

Looks like the assignment will be to get in the playoff hunt with the current group. There will be more options at the deadline, maybe. The Cards and Angels and other teams might be decided sellers then. 

Despite all of the changes the 2025 season still largely rests on Vlad + wishcasting for bounce backs from multiple former stars. 

Ke'Bryan Hayes must be really injured because that's a Ross Atkins trade if I've ever seen one. 

[Laika]

40 minutes ago, G-Snarls said:

Atkins LOVES to surprise everyone with trades that no one saw coming

Yeah the Gimenez one was out of nowhere for sure. 

The Varsho one was however fairly predictable. Not necessarily Varsho but Arizona OF for Toronto C

[Spanky99]

19 hours ago, jaysblue said:

Good ole Nashville, Tennessee baby!

[Pendleton]

 

 

[jaysblue]

Yeah signing a power bat who could DH or come off the bench like JDM or Rizzo or Canha for under $5M + incentives might not be that bad. Sure some other guys likely will settle for MiLB deals like Ty France, Joey Gallo, Adam Duvall, Patrick Wisdom, and Eddie Rosario. 

If you can sign McCann as a backup C or Grandal close to $2-3M also could be worth exploring. 

Last offseason the Jays brought in Volgelbach and Votto lol, so could see Atkins doing something similar again when it comes to bargain bin FA hunting. 

Still a lot of veteran relievers available as well. Would be nice to roll the dice on someone like Jansen, Robertson, Kelly, Raley, Jackson, Sims, McGough or Junis if they came cheap. 

I've always been a Junis fan and would be a nice arm to have who can pitch multiple innings out of the pen, and who could start at anytime. Would be really nice depth!

[jaysblue]

16 hours ago, Spanky99 said:

Good ole Nashville, Tennessee baby!

Would definitely be a fun place for a MLB baseball team. Nashville is one of the coolest if not coolest cities in the US. 

[Carlos Danger]

17 hours ago, Spanky99 said:

Good ole Nashville, Tennessee baby!

Pretty sure that is Florida Man. 

[Carlos Danger]

49 minutes ago, jaysblue said:

Would definitely be a fun place for a MLB baseball team. Nashville is one of the coolest if not coolest cities in the US. 

I will bet anyone one here $100 in real money (USD) that Nashville gets the next expansion baseball team or out of state relocation. 

[Omar]

Vladdy repeating 2024

+

Bichette bounce back

+

Two or more players exceeding eapectations ( looking at you Varsho, Gimenez, Clement, Wagner, Kirk)

+

Healthy pitching staff

+

At least one team in the Al East s***ing the bed

_________________________

= Playoffs will be easy to make. 

[jaysblue]

28 minutes ago, Omar said:

Vladdy repeating 2024

+

Bichette bounce back

+

Two or more players exceeding eapectations ( looking at you Varsho, Gimenez, Clement, Wagner, Kirk)

+

Healthy pitching staff

+

At least one team in the Al East s***ing the bed

_________________________

= Playoffs will be easy to make. 

Would be nice if Varsho could exceed some expectations with the bat and if Kirk returned to his 2022 form offensively. Heck would even take Varsho's 2022 season offensively if he hits close to 30 HR's with a .450 SLG! 

[Jays24]

1 hour ago, jaysblue said:

Would be nice if Varsho could exceed some expectations with the bat and if Kirk returned to his 2022 form offensively. Heck would even take Varsho's 2022 season offensively if he hits close to 30 HR's with a .450 SLG! 

When u gotta rely on those things, that's when 2023/2024 happens offensively.  Bo is the only reasonable player you can count on a real bounce back.

[jerb]

 

[Jimcanuck]

4 hours ago, Omar said:

Vladdy repeating 2024

+

Bichette bounce back

+

Two or more players exceeding eapectations ( looking at you Varsho, Gimenez, Clement, Wagner, Kirk)

+

Healthy pitching staff

+

At least one team in the Al East s***ing the bed

_________________________

= Playoffs will be easy to make. 

Probability of all that happening 2%

[Terminator]

The other teams taking a step back helps us as much as anything

-Yanks can make as many moves as they want but losing a 7 WAR player makes the team worse. Loving the fact that they panicked and spent 300 million and traded away talent to come up with Fried, Bellinger, Goldschmidt and Williams.

-Orioles appear to be squandering their young talent. They project for a mid-80s win total and have the 17th best farm now according to BA (uh oh!). We tried telling the Orioles Fanboys that this would happen but they wouldn’t listen. 

-Rays will always be interesting but that payroll as well as every team in the league adopting advanced stats is starting to affect their ceiling each year

-Boston refuses to spend though they seem to slowly be crawling back to respectability.

[Masterbather]

1 hour ago, Terminator said:

The other teams taking a step back helps us as much as anything

-Yanks can make as many moves as they want but losing a 7 WAR player makes the team worse. Loving the fact that they panicked and spent 300 million and traded away talent to come up with Fried, Bellinger, Goldschmidt and Williams.

-Orioles appear to be squandering their young talent. They project for a mid-80s win total and have the 17th best farm now according to BA (uh oh!). We tried telling the Orioles Fanboys that this would happen but they wouldn’t listen. 

-Rays will always be interesting but that payroll as well as every team in the league adopting advanced stats is starting to affect their ceiling each year

-Boston refuses to spend though they seem to slowly be crawling back to respectability.

Awesome, now do the Jays too, but do it as if you weren't a complete homer.

[Jimcanuck]

5 hours ago, Jimcanuck said:

Probability of all that happening 2%

Brownie thumbed this post down.  Math of probabilities, if two events have a probability of 50%, the probability that both will occur is 25%.

Omar had 5 events.  If we make the reasonable (?) assumption that the probability of each is 50%, the probability of all 5 events coming true is .5 x .5 x .5 x .5 x .5 = 3.125%

So I was off by 1.125%.  Is that the reason for the thumbs down?  

[Jimcanuck]

By the way, did we lose Olerud?

[Masterbather]

1 hour ago, Jimcanuck said:

Brownie thumbed this post down.  Math of probabilities, if two events have a probability of 50%, the probability that both will occur is 25%.

Omar had 5 events.  If we make the reasonable (?) assumption that the probability of each is 50%, the probability of all 5 events coming true is .5 x .5 x .5 x .5 x .5 = 3.125%

So I was off by 1.125%.  Is that the reason for the thumbs down?  

Well you were off by 1.125 percentage points, but not 1.125%. 

You could say you were off by 56.25% as a percentage change if you consider the low number to be the base. Or -36% if you consider the high number to be the base.

Or 43.9% percentage difference which doesn't require either number to be the base. This is probably more accurate.

Or I could just be spewing gibberish, it's been a while.

[L54]

8 hours ago, Jimcanuck said:

Brownie thumbed this post down.  Math of probabilities, if two events have a probability of 50%, the probability that both will occur is 25%.

Omar had 5 events.  If we make the reasonable (?) assumption that the probability of each is 50%, the probability of all 5 events coming true is .5 x .5 x .5 x .5 x .5 = 3.125%

So I was off by 1.125%.  Is that the reason for the thumbs down?  

Do you actually not know why? 

[Jimcanuck]

8 minutes ago, L54 said:

Do you actually not know why? 

Math is hard?

[L54]

Just now, Jimcanuck said:

Math is hard?

Haha yes let’s go with that 

[Pendleton]

9 hours ago, Jimcanuck said:

By the way, did we lose Olerud?

Traded him to the Mets for Robert Person, just before Xmas in 1996

[Brownie19]

11 hours ago, Jimcanuck said:

Brownie thumbed this post down.  Math of probabilities, if two events have a probability of 50%, the probability that both will occur is 25%.

Omar had 5 events.  If we make the reasonable (?) assumption that the probability of each is 50%, the probability of all 5 events coming true is .5 x .5 x .5 x .5 x .5 = 3.125%

So I was off by 1.125%.  Is that the reason for the thumbs down?  

I think the probability of some of those events is higher than 50%.  But fair, based on the math, it's still a low chance all those events happen.

I would also opine that I'm not sure all those things need to happen for us to make the playoffs - and there's also other good events that could happen that would increase our odds (like one of Orelvis, Wagner, Roden, Barger breaking out).

That said - I'm not optimistic about our chances.  The baseball gods don't seem to like the Jays these days.

 

[Brownie19]

3 hours ago, L54 said:

Do you actually not know why? 

I don't know why.  Can you explain what you're getting at?