Potential Free Agents 2025

[jaysblue]

What does a contract for Flaherty look like?

[Pendleton]

What does a contract for Flaherty look like?

 

I haven't seen any recent projections but I'm thinking 5 years in the 85-100M range depending on how the market plays out. Gausman was slightly older but had a more proven recent track record of frontline pitching results when we gave him 110M/5. The free agent pool seems deep enough that Flaherty isn't a lock to get 9 figures despite the great season.

[jaysblue]

I haven't seen any recent projections but I'm thinking 5 years in the 85-100M range depending on how the market plays out. Gausman was slightly older but had a more proven recent track record of frontline pitching results when we gave him 110M/5. The free agent pool seems deep enough that Flaherty isn't a lock to get 9 figures despite the great season.

 

Yeah was thinking along the same lines, using the Gausman contract as a benchmark. If Flaherty continues to pitch at an elite level, definitely a very good contract. 5 years would keep Flaherty here until he's 34, so not bad at all.

[max silver]

Yeah was thinking along the same lines, using the Gausman contract as a benchmark. If Flaherty continues to pitch at an elite level, definitely a very good contract. 5 years would keep Flaherty here until he's 34, so not bad at all.

 

I don't know if Flaherty has shown enough consistency to warrant a 5 year deal as of yet. Blake Snell was only able to receive a short term 2 year deal with a player opt out despite a more consistent track record. Maybe a similar deal for Flaherty albeit with a bit lower AAV could be in the cards.

[jaysblue]

I don't know if Flaherty has shown enough consistency to warrant a 5 year deal as of yet. Blake Snell was only able to receive a short term 2 year deal with a player opt out despite a more consistent track record. Maybe a similar deal for Flaherty albeit with a bit lower AAV could be in the cards.

 

Yeah will be interesting to see how the market plays out this offseason.

 

What kind of contract was Snell holding out for though last offseason? He signed pretty late which is why he had to settle for that 2 year deal with the player opt out.

[Jimcanuck]

I'd guess $900M. Let's do it.

 

How's Vlad feel when Soto get's twice as much as he does?

 

Jays should have no issue giving Vlad an incentive laden deal so that if finishes top 3 in MVP voting for example, he gets paid pretty close to the Soto tally

[glory]

Sign Soto, extend Vladdy?

 

What's the price tag on that? Close to a billion? $800 million?

 

Close to a billion. Vlad is probably looking at $350-400M to forgo free agency, and the Jays would have to outbid Steve Cohen for Soto, so that’s going to be a ridiculous figure.

 

I’d have no issues with it. The Jays offensively are well suited to do it because they have a bunch of guys in the 1-2 WAR talent range making $750k for the next few years (Martinez, Jimenez, Barger, Horwitz, Wagner, DS, soon Roden). The tough part will be figuring out the pitching situation, but if they were to sign Soto then the budget would have to adjust accordingly.

 

Pipe dream but from the sounds of it Soto is in it for the money over location, so just outbid Cohen, the Yankees, Dodgers, Nats, etc. Easy.

[Key22]

I was reading somewhere that the Jays will have a $240m payroll for next year.

 

So does anyone know how much we have to spend with various players coming off the books and pay raises via arbitration etc?

 

Vlad's arbitration will likely be close to $30m

 

If the Jays did entertain an offer for Soto - it would probably have to be similar to Ohtani's to help Soto avoid taxes. $600m/10 - I can't see the Jays in on this.

 

Santander/Teo - maybe Pete Alonso. I'd be interested in Willy Adames and Alex Bregman.

[Terminator]

I was reading somewhere that the Jays will have a $240m payroll for next year.

 

So does anyone know how much we have to spend with various players coming off the books and pay raises via arbitration etc?

 

Vlad's arbitration will likely be close to $30m

 

If the Jays did entertain an offer for Soto - it would probably have to be similar to Ohtani's to help Soto avoid taxes. $600m/10 - I can't see the Jays in on this.

 

Santander/Teo - maybe Pete Alonso. I'd be interested in Willy Adames and Alex Bregman.

 

If it's 240 mil we will have close to 60 mil to spend.

[G-Snarls]

If it's 240 mil we will have close to 60 mil to spend.

 

Question 1 will be do we need to spend big or not on the starting rotation

[Key22]

If it's 240 mil we will have close to 60 mil to spend.

 

Okay that's a fair chunk - in theory they could be in Soto - but is it better to spread it around or go all in on one guy? He made a big impact in NY to surround Judge - he could do the same in Toronto for Vlad.

[jaysblue]

Okay that's a fair chunk - in theory they could be in Soto - but is it better to spread it around or go all in on one guy? He made a big impact in NY to surround Judge - he could do the same in Toronto for Vlad.

 

I think if the Jays brought in Soto, they also have to re-sign Vladdy as well. Can't pass up on that opportunity having that duo in the middle of their lineup for the next decade.

 

I think with Soto/Vladdy in the fold, they likely could explore cheaper options at DH and 3B. Plus Vladdy could play some 3B. If they brought back Jansen to share time behind the plate with Kirk, he likely could DH as well when he's not catching.

 

The Jays still would need a No. 1/2 starter IMO like Snell/Flaherty or bringing back Kikuchi.

[Jimcanuck]

Soto will be a 1B/DH in a few years. He's pretty bad in the OF already.

 

I'm skeptical of Vad at 3B.

 

Having two 1B/DH signed to megadeals doesn't seem wise.

[John_Havok]

Soto will be a 1B/DH in a few years. He's pretty bad in the OF already.

 

I'm skeptical of Vad at 3B.

 

Having two 1B/DH signed to megadeals doesn't seem wise.

 

If they both hit like they are now, whether they are 1B or DH doesn't really matter. Worry about that problem in 5-7 years.

[Jimcanuck]

If they both hit like they are now, whether they are 1B or DH doesn't really matter. Worry about that problem in 5-7 years.

 

I'd do Bregman and Vlad, and use the extra cash for other needs, before Soto and Vlad.

 

Soto and Vlad takes away the DH spot for rotating players, like Springer, through.

 

Soto and Vlad together is nowhere close to optimal.

[glory]

If Manny and Ortiz worked, then Vlad/Soto would as well. I’d have no issues with those two on the roster for the next 10 years, especially with the shape of the farm system (improved depth but lacking real impact). Soto’s offensive profile is practically perfect from a long term risk standpoint, and if 2024 Vlad is for real, then his is in the same category (vs someone like Bo whose profile has red flags all over it long term even before 2024’s numbers).

[Terminator]

I'd do Bregman and Vlad, and use the extra cash for other needs, before Soto and Vlad.

 

Soto and Vlad takes away the DH spot for rotating players, like Springer, through.

 

Soto and Vlad together is nowhere close to optimal.

 

Bregman would be good but I worry about the price tag after the Chapman extension.

[max silver]

Bregman would be good but I worry about the price tag after the Chapman extension.

 

Up to a month or so ago I thought that Bregman was likely going to be forced to take a bit of a show me kind of deal similar to what Chapman signed for last offseason. Having said that he's been on a tear after the horrible start to the season and his overall numbers are probably going to be close to his last few season totals by the end of the month.

[max silver]

Soto will be a 1B/DH in a few years. He's pretty bad in the OF already.

 

I'm skeptical of Vad at 3B.

 

Having two 1B/DH signed to megadeals doesn't seem wise.

 

I'm not sure what to make of Soto as an outfield defender as his metrics have been all over the map. He's posted very respectable numbers in right field this season, but was Vlad level bad in 2022/2023 across both outfield corners. He was an above average defender in right field back in 2021, so that's two of his last three seasons where he's posted respectable numbers in right field.

[Stangstag]

I'm not sure what to make of Soto as an outfield defender as his metrics have been all over the map. He's posted very respectable numbers in right field this season, but was Vlad level bad in 2022/2023 across both outfield corners. He was an above average defender in right field back in 2021, so that's two of his last three seasons where he's posted respectable numbers in right field.

 

Yankee stadium’s tiny ass RF likely boosted his defensive numbers quite a bit, same as Judge

[Masterbather]

I'd do Bregman and Vlad, and use the extra cash for other needs, before Soto and Vlad.

 

Soto and Vlad takes away the DH spot for rotating players, like Springer, through.

 

Soto and Vlad together is nowhere close to optimal.

 

Not that I'm necessary advocating for your plan but if that's what you had in mind, why not Soto and Bregman and trade Vlad? Does that not make us a much better team because of the return on Vlad?

[max silver]

Yankee stadium’s tiny ass RF likely boosted his defensive numbers quite a bit, same as Judge

 

That's likely part of it but a glance at his Statcast numbers shows that he is getting much better jumps on batted balls this season.

[jaysblue]

Bregman would be good but I worry about the price tag after the Chapman extension.

 

Likely around $200M or so.

[Jimcanuck]

Not that I'm necessary advocating for your plan but if that's what you had in mind, why not Soto and Bregman and trade Vlad? Does that not make us a much better team because of the return on Vlad?

 

Sure. I was gonna add that but the point I was making was already clear.

[max silver]

I'd do Bregman and Vlad, and use the extra cash for other needs, before Soto and Vlad.

 

Soto and Vlad takes away the DH spot for rotating players, like Springer, through.

 

Soto and Vlad together is nowhere close to optimal.

 

If you employ both of Vlad and Soto on the same team you wouldn't need to worry about rotating lesser offensive players through the DH spot. You could simply give guys like George Springer full days off instead of rotating at DH and utilize them off of the bench as the situation dictates.

[Jonn]

Chapman's extension was pretty jaw dropping. He's a good player but he's not making 25 million until he's 38 good.

 

His offense is just way too inconsistent to make that kind of gamble.

[John_Havok]

Chapman's extension was pretty jaw dropping. He's a good player but he's not making 25 million until he's 38 good.

 

His offense is just way too inconsistent to make that kind of gamble.

 

He's kinda worth it, but at the same time, they could likely find a guy that gives 85% of Chapman for 50% of the cost. Add to that they fact they weren't even bidding against other teams and it's kinda head scratching.