Jays in 2025

[burlingtonbandit]

The 2025 Blue Jays are going to be like a box of chocolates because you don't know what you are going to get. Is Gausman the ace with an effective splitter or is he more of a mid rotation piece? Does Berrios right the ship this season or is he a back of the rotation pitcher? Does Bo bounce back next season or has he turned into Tim Anderson? Are Romano and Swanson going to be effective leverage relievers or are they both cooked? Is Vlad an MVP caliber bat or is he going to revert to career averages? Is Springer the heavily declining player of the first few months of this season or has he unlocked himself at the plate with recent adjustments?

 

lol Jays are like a box of chocolates because when it gets hot out the team will melt. Lmao

[max silver]

lol Jays are like a box of chocolates because when it gets hot out the team will melt. Lmao

 

They played fine throughout the summer in all of their recent competitive seasons. They failed when the weather cooled off and the post season began.

[Terminator]

And Horwitz has more than doubled his ZiPS projection.

 

His 87th percentile 2B defense is holding! Up to +4 OAA on the season. Amazing transformation.

[glory]

If they want to contend in 2025 but still maximize trade assets and add to the farm system, then they'll need to get a bit creative with the roster. Something like trading Bichette for the best package of prospects they can get and then signing Adames. In that scenario they would have (hopefully) added at least one intriguing prospect to the farm system while not hurting the big league roster at all (if 2024 Bo is a sign of things to come then Adames over him is actually a massive upgrade). You can make an argument that holding on to Green and Bassitt was actually the smart play from a potential return standpoint. If both of those guys were rentals this past deadline, then they would have had more value than they did in reality having $10.5m and $21m respectively owed to them the following season. That's full FA freight on two older pitchers which likely lessened their trade value. That won't apply in July 2025. The IKF trade is exactly what they should be doing. They sold high on a marginal asset when he was still controllable and got an interesting prospect out of it. Stuff like that will add up.

 

I really don't know what the right answer is. This is a very poor situation for a team to be in when everything is screaming for a rebuild but it's impossible to do for business reasons. They'll have to think outside the box and find a way to balance winning with stocking the farm system. Making matters worse, if they don't figure out why their player development sucks so much, then even if they rebuild it's not going to cure their problems.

[Nexii]

Adames would be around 6/150 I'd guess. Maybe some desperate team goes 7/175. Leaves like 20-25M for 3 mid relievers or 2 upper calibre.

 

Jays are a rich team with a huge market. I don't see a world where they don't spend up to the luxury tax in 2025. Will it be enough, probably not, but a .500 team is more watchable at least

 

We lack that one young superstar to get excited about. Lots of 2-3 WAR guys is not the worst thing, but its kind of a boring team

[max silver]

Adames would be around 6/150 I'd guess. Maybe some desperate team goes 7/175. Leaves like 20-25M for 3 mid relievers or 2 upper calibre.

 

Jays are a rich team with a huge market. I don't see a world where they don't spend up to the luxury tax in 2025. Will it be enough, probably not, but a .500 team is more watchable at least

 

We lack that one young superstar to get excited about. Lots of 2-3 WAR guys is not the worst thing, but its kind of a boring team

 

If 25 year old Vlad continues the type of offensive performance of the last 3 months he's the exciting young superstar to build the team around.

[Barrelsandbombs]

From BNS and Blake Murphy on Jays Talk, about the 2025 budget. I copied and pasted from the episode transcript:

 

It looks like there'll be about 165 to 175 million committed for what's here. And then there's all this work to be done that we laid out. So 241 million is the CBT line for next year.

 

How do you feel about how that would spread over? We're talking about multiple bats, a split-timer backup catcher, a couple of relievers, a couple of starters. Some of this will have to come from trade unless the budget comes in way higher than we anticipated.

 

Yeah, I don't think it will come in way higher. And we're going to hear from Mark Shapiro in a week, so we'll get clarity on this to some extent at that point. I think if anything, it might come in lower.

 

I don't think that it would come in a lot higher than the CBT line.

 

https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/blue-jays-talk/id430621876?i=1000664052034

[Terminator]

Adames would be around 6/150 I'd guess. Maybe some desperate team goes 7/175. Leaves like 20-25M for 3 mid relievers or 2 upper calibre.

 

Jays are a rich team with a huge market. I don't see a world where they don't spend up to the luxury tax in 2025. Will it be enough, probably not, but a .500 team is more watchable at least

 

We lack that one young superstar to get excited about. Lots of 2-3 WAR guys is not the worst thing, but its kind of a boring team

 

It's tough to say what the prices will be. Chapman was aiming for similar and had to settle for way less.

[Stangstag]

Exactly what I meant by red flags everywhere. Too much needs to go right for the Jays to hit the post season. SLIM CHANCE.

 

Getting a bunch of untested prospects back via trade isn’t any more of a sure thing. That could easily fail, and actually likely has a higher chance of failing.

 

This is the best roster we’ll likely have for the next 5 or so years, im not upset at the front office for giving it one more shot in 2025.

[Spanky99]

There's a bit of a fine line between hope and the probability of positive regression to the mean though.

 

It's always been that way with the volatility of BP arms, they were top 5 in '23 and dropped to 2nd last in a calendar year(mind blown), I'm with Stangstag save for maybe one arm added, roll it back and use in house arms in low leverage.

[burlingtonbandit]

They played fine throughout the summer in all of their recent competitive seasons. They failed when the weather cooled off and the post season began.

 

Hmm guess you didn’t understand I was saying a joke. Do you go to a comedy show and yell out against a comedian saying their statements aren’t 100% factual too lol.

[Jimcanuck]

Getting a bunch of untested prospects back via trade isn’t any more of a sure thing. That could easily fail, and actually likely has a higher chance of failing.

 

This is the best roster we’ll likely have for the next 5 or so years, im not upset at the front office for giving it one more shot in 2025.

 

Actually the sure route to contention is to develop or acquire several cost controlled contributors and augment with FA signs. If you don't have the former, contention is really really hard. Gotta be lucky like semien and Ray that one year

[John_Havok]

Actually the sure route to contention is to develop or acquire several cost controlled contributors and augment with FA signs. If you don't have the former, contention is really really hard. Gotta be lucky like semien and Ray that one year

 

How many is several for your example?

[Brownie19]

Adames would be around 6/150 I'd guess. Maybe some desperate team goes 7/175. Leaves like 20-25M for 3 mid relievers or 2 upper calibre.

 

Jays are a rich team with a huge market. I don't see a world where they don't spend up to the luxury tax in 2025. Will it be enough, probably not, but a .500 team is more watchable at least

 

We lack that one young superstar to get excited about. Lots of 2-3 WAR guys is not the worst thing, but its kind of a boring team

 

I would not want to give Adames 6 or 7 years at $150-$175M Not for a guy who's like a 110 wRC+ hitter over the past 3 years. This has Dansby Swanson written all over it.

[BatFlip]

I would not want to give Adames 6 or 7 years at $150-$175M Not for a guy who's like a 110 wRC+ hitter over the past 3 years. This has Dansby Swanson written all over it.

 

 

No kidding. Not sure what his market will be, but that would be a big overpay that the Jays should avoid.

[Jimcanuck]

How many is several for your example?

 

Depends on how good they are. If you got a Gunnar and an Adley, not too many more. If they are all average or below, you need quite a few along with top end guys like Soto / Skenes.

 

Lots of ways to construct a winning formula, but a main ingredient is a good group of cost controlled players. Through bad luck or incompetence, the Jays player development has failed. Time to start over again.

[John_Havok]

Depends on how good they are. If you got a Gunnar and an Adley, not too many more. If they are all average or below, you need quite a few along with top end guys like Soto / Skenes.

 

Lots of ways to construct a winning formula, but a main ingredient is a good group of cost-controlled players. Through bad luck or incompetence, the Jays player development has failed. Time to start over again.

 

The core in 2021 was largely home grown and cost controlled, seems they just lost the dice roll that year with their record and didn't get in. Yeah, time to reload, but no teams really have a steady pipeline to replace 4-5 guys when they're drafting 20th or worse every year.

[Jimcanuck]

The core in 2021 was largely home grown and cost controlled, seems they just lost the dice roll that year with their record and didn't get in. Yeah, time to reload, but no teams really have a steady pipeline to replace 4-5 guys when they're drafting 20th or worse every year.

 

The Dodgers, the Rays, the Padres, and a few others seem to have that steady pipeline. We know why in the case of the Rays. The others, better development personnel / program?

[John_Havok]

The Dodgers, the Rays, the Padres, and a few others seem to have that steady pipeline. We know why in the case of the Rays. The others, better development personnel / program?

 

Sure, there's only so many elite developmental minds to go around.

 

I disagree on the Padres though. recently it's really the Dodgers and Houston that have sustained the most home-grown development while also winning.

 

Braves ... they were in the early part of the 2000's but they've also been more cyclic in nature in the past 10.

 

I guess my overall point is, Atkins did exactly what everyone is talking about and succeeded wildly with the 2021 team. It was largely home grown, cost controlled, supplemented with FAs. Just didnt go their way on the last day of the season.

 

The disconnect now seems to be the argument between blowing it up and sucking again for 3+ years, or not.

[jaysblue]

Trade for Brent Rooker this offseason!

[Jimcanuck]

Trade for Brent Rooker this offseason!

 

Nah. Buy high is a bad move.

[Brownie19]

Sure, there's only so many elite developmental minds to go around.

 

I disagree on the Padres though. recently it's really the Dodgers and Houston that have sustained the most home-grown development while also winning.

 

Braves ... they were in the early part of the 2000's but they've also been more cyclic in nature in the past 10.

 

I guess my overall point is, Atkins did exactly what everyone is talking about and succeeded wildly with the 2021 team. It was largely home grown, cost controlled, supplemented with FAs. Just didnt go their way on the last day of the season.

 

The disconnect now seems to be the argument between blowing it up and sucking again for 3+ years, or not.

 

Didn't AA inherit a stocked farm system? He's kind of driven it into the ground hasn't he? If they didn't win that World Series, I wonder how fans would view him right now...

[BTS]

Nah. Buy high is a bad move.

 

On the other hand, it’s Oakland. They’d probably trade him for Clement, Francis, and 2 years of discounted Rogers internet

[Jimcanuck]

On the other hand, it’s Oakland. They’d probably trade him for Clement, Francis, and 2 years of discounted Rogers internet

 

I would wait until mid-way through 2025, get him for the discounted internet alone

[jaysblue]

Nah. Buy high is a bad move.

 

Like BTS said, it's Oakland haha. The Jays were able to steal Josh Donaldson and Matt Chapman from the A's, so anything is possible.

 

Think he could have a huge impact and he solves a lot of issues for this lineup.

 

He's 29-years-old, so A's likely dangle him and I can't imagine the price being astronomical. Kinda has a JD feel to him.

[jaysblue]

Would Rooker be a full time DH or can he play LF for an entire season? He's only played 14 games in the outfield this season. Is he that bad defensively?

[Spanky99]

Would Rooker be a full time DH or can he play LF for an entire season? He's only played 14 games in the outfield this season. Is he that bad defensively?

 

-3 OAA in just 102.1 innings played suggest the answer is *Yes*, lol.

[jaysblue]

C Kirk/______

1B Guerrero

2B Horwtiz

SS Bichette

3B _______

RF Springer

CF Varsho

LF Rooker

DH _______

 

BN Schneider

BN Clement

BN Loperfido

BN _______

 

SP Gausman

SP _______

SP Bassitt

SP Berrios

SP Rodriguez

 

Jays should be able to sign one of the following front of the rotation arms available this offseason: Snell, Burnes (ace), Fried, Flaherty, Bieber (misses time likely earlier in the season), or bring back Kikuchi. Should be the main focus of free agency.

 

Not many 3B available other than Bregman or Chapman. Likely will be a bit pricey. Not sure if there are any trade options or they roll with Clement.

 

As for another LF/DH bat, can easily sign someone like Joc Pederson, Tyler O'Neill, Jesse Winker, Jurickson Profar, Teo Hernandez, Anthony Santander, Michael Conforto, Max Kepler etc. Plenty of options available. Can't botch that situation again.

 

Bullpen should be easy to repair via free agency and gotta hope for some bounce backs from Romano, Swanson, and Green.

[jaysblue]

-3 OAA in just 102.1 innings played suggest the answer is *Yes*, lol.

 

Haha so that likely reduces his trade value slightly if he's mainly a DH bat. Give him a majority of his AB's at DH, with the odd start in LF if needed. Plenty of corner OF bats available in free agency.

[max silver]

Would Rooker be a full time DH or can he play LF for an entire season? He's only played 14 games in the outfield this season. Is he that bad defensively?

 

I've yet to watch him play in the field but his career numbers are legitimately awful in either corner.