Jays in 2025

[Spanky99]

No I don’t think it’s necessarily one or the other in this case. Some players have a combined procedure where the ligament is still replaced but a brace is added to increase the strength of the repair. Alex has an expected 12-14 month recovery time just like regular Tommy John surgery.

 

No, Internal Brace is 12 months, TJS is 12 to 18 Months depending on a reliever to starter, some times worst. An SP is the latter.

[Joltin Joe]

What does everyone think about the team's direction next year? As things stand we're probably looking at something like the following going into the offseason:

 

C - Kirk

1B - Guerrero Jr.

2B/1B - Horwitz

3B/SS - Clement

SS - Bichette

CF - Varsho

LF/2B - Schneider

RF - Springer

3B/OF - Barger

----

2B/3B - Wagner

2B/3B - Martinez

OF/1B - Loperfido

C - ???

 

Gausman

Bassitt

Berrios

Rodriguez

Bloss

 

Romano (if arm is intact)

Green

Swanson

Cabrera

Pop

Little

some guy

some other guy

 

That's not a good team. If they want to contend, they probably need:

 

- #1 catcher

- above-average everyday 3B

- monster corner OF bat

- ace

- mid rotation starter

- like 3-4 very good pen arms

 

I don't see how they do that in one offseason. I think we're in a really bad spot where management needs to win at all costs in 2025, but doesn't have the roster to do it. So it's going to be all-in (cash and prospects) to try to hail-mary a 90-win team and get new contracts from ownership.

 

Jays need 3b this winter. A DH, starting pitcher, and 2-3 arms in bullpen. That's a lot considering division they are in. Next July probably be major hard sell. Bo, Vlad, Bassitt, be gone for futures

[RobinThicc]

A starter that you actually feel good about trotting out there in the wild card series, so I think they’d have to aim higher than a 4/5.

 

A couple big bats.

 

Some new bullpen pieces.

 

A catcher to split time with Kirk

[saskjayfan]

No, Internal Brace is 12 months, TJS is 12 to 18 Months depending on a reliever to starter, some times worst. An SP is the latter.

 

Basically you're getting a half season out of Manoah. As much as we focus on the hitting, our bullpen was bottom 3 in the league this year. I feel like Francis could be a decent bullpen arm. Rodriguez might ultimately be a guy better suited for the bullpen too. There will be no competing if Bo's OPS isn't close to .800. If he returns to his normal production and vlad is a .900 OPS monster I believe him to be it's entirely possible to compete if the Jays are willing to spend like they did this year.

[max silver]

No, Internal Brace is 12 months, TJS is 12 to 18 Months depending on a reliever to starter, some times worst. An SP is the latter.

 

https://www.tsn.ca/mlb/blue-jays-alek-manoah-has-tommy-john-surgery-out-12-14-months-1.2136460

 

Manoah had a fully ligament replacement but with an added brace. The internal brace can be used on it's own when there isn't sufficient damage to require a full ligament replacement, but that wasn't the case with Alek.

 

The plan for surgery was a hybrid Tommy John procedure performed by Dr. Keith Meister that replaced the ulnar collateral ligament and anchors the new one with an internal brace suture.

 

https://www.sportsnet.ca/mlb/article/blue-jays-alek-manoah-has-surgery-will-return-to-toronto-for-rehab/

[max silver]

Basically you're getting a half season out of Manoah. As much as we focus on the hitting, our bullpen was bottom 3 in the league this year. I feel like Francis could be a decent bullpen arm. Rodriguez might ultimately be a guy better suited for the bullpen too. There will be no competing if Bo's OPS isn't close to .800. If he returns to his normal production and vlad is a .900 OPS monster I believe him to be it's entirely possible to compete if the Jays are willing to spend like they did this year.

 

I believe an optimistic timeline could have Alek back by mid-late July or thereabouts if he doesn't experience any setbacks.

[max silver]

A starter that you actually feel good about trotting out there in the wild card series, so I think they’d have to aim higher than a 4/5.

 

A couple big bats.

 

Some new bullpen pieces.

 

A catcher to split time with Kirk

 

I legitimately wouldn't be at all surprised if both Jansen and Kikuchi are brought back in free agency. Kikuchi is a guy I'd have no qualms with using in a wild card series but he's the type of guy that would need to be on a short leash given his tendency this season to have games spiral out of control after initially dominating.

[glory]

- Either 1 high end SP or 2 SP's that are #3/4 caliber. I don't want to trust Yariel as one of the 5 starters out the gate, but I'd be fine with him as #5 SP if they signed someone like Burnes.

- A 3B, Catcher, and DH. I'd be fine with using internal options for LF (Loperfido, Clase, DS, Barger, etc).

- An entire bullpen aside from Green and Romano assuming he's healthy. Non tender Swanson.

 

It's a long shot. If Vlad and Bo have monster FA years to cash in at the end of the season then the odds improve, but they can't get away with a KK/Turner/IKF master class type of off season they had this year. They need to go big and have it pan out right away. Not really sure where they go. A lot depends on who is calling the shots. As mentioned you kinda need to figure out what you want to do with Shapiro before you let him proceed with an off season that is going to dictate the course of the next few years. If I had to predict, then I'd say they extend Shapiro, reassign Atkins, and promote someone (Click) to take over. Maybe that's already been done since this past trade deadline was a lot better than what Atkins usually does as a seller.

[Ryu In My House]

It's not good but I don't know that it's quite that dire. If they did everything on that list they would be pretty damn stacked. Do about half of it (or all of it halfway) and I think "the WC3 will be easy to make."

 

• I don't think we need a #1 Catcher. Kirk got off to a slow start but has been hitting fine since late April, his xstats are fine, and he has elite D to go with it. He also has the 25th highest Steamer600 WAR in baseball right now.
  
• 
  
• They need 2 or 3 bats and there are different ways to do it. Sign a Tier 2 FA like Bregman, Kim or Adames and then get a couple of decent bats in LF and DH.
  
• 
  
• The rotation definitely needs a solid starter but I'm not sure it needs an ace AND a mid rotation guy. If they got a #2 SP and bumped Bloss to AAA as depth that might be enough.
  
• 
  
• The bullpen is a mess but that is the easiest fix. Trade one or two of our bench guys (we have a bunch) and make 2 or 3 signings and it could be ok enough.
  
• 
  

 

Seems pretty daunting but the AAV room is there on the payroll I think. Even so, that's spending like 60 mil in AAV to only become wild card contenders. Not great.

 

I like your synopsis. I will add that I think *if* Bo comes back from IL and lights it up, he will almost 100% be traded in the off season. We may get a starter or two from that. Unsure. But he should bring in a better haul than Kikuchi.

[Ryu In My House]

Just curious what you guys think? What is Bo comes back and goes on a heater the rest of the way, and Vladdy stays hot. In the offseason, contract extensions go nowhere with both and both are traded. What would that haul look like?

[Laika]

Someone needs to run the financials

 

What was 2024 opening day payroll, what is the projected 2025 based on current players, so how much money is there to work with

[BTS]

Come on now

 

The team is not good (as-is) but they aren’t bad either. Middling. A couple shrewd signings and some guys having bounceback years, its not hard to see them as a playoff team.

 

Agree the bullpen looks like a mess, but we thought the bullpen looked good coming into this year. You really never know.

 

I think it’s worse than middling. They’re at a -79 run differential. Likely to finish at around -120. They’re basically the Angels. Seriously - look at the results this year, and their respective rosters going into the offseason. It looks like what the Angels have.

[hanton]

Someone needs to run the financials

 

What was 2024 opening day payroll, what is the projected 2025 based on current players, so how much money is there to work with

 

2024 226K

right now and heading into 2025 and obviosuly without arb, fa slaraies 130K

[Laika]

yes now we need a nerd to tally the estimated arb salaries

 

the budget from 2024 will likely be the most they are allowed to spend in 2025. heck, Rogers could reduce their allotment.

 

a lot of these offseason plans being thrown around are just not realistic at all. they are not signing Soto + Bregman + others lol.

[Jimcanuck]

Here's what will happen with the Toronto Blue Jays baseball business.

 

Sign a bunch of guys to 1 yr contracts.

 

Market Vlad, Gausman, Bo, Bassitt to the casuals.

 

Put casual bums in the seats.

 

Trade all the expiring contracts and pending FA that haven't resigned at the deadline.

[BTS]

I think it's easy to miss how bad the pitching situation is because we're used to those names being good and reliable. But at this point Gausman will be 34 on opening day, has taken a step back and now looks more like a #2. Bassitt will be 36 and is an inning eating shitballer in the mold of a Kyle Gibson. Berrios might not even be an MLB-caliber starter anymore. There are no prospects on the horizon ready step in as depth. It's Bloss and Rodriguez, then zero organizational depth.

 

Going into 2024, it was "well, we might not be able to score, but the pitching and defense is elite". Well now we still can't score but have, like, bottom 5 pitching.

[Jimcanuck]

Bregman on a 1/30 deal would be great, promise to move him to a contender at the deadline if the Jays are out of it

[Laika]

I think it's easy to miss how bad the pitching situation is because we're used to those names being good and reliable. But at this point Gausman will be 34 on opening day, has taken a step back and now looks more like a #2. Bassitt will be 36 and is an inning eating shitballer in the mold of a Kyle Gibson. Berrios might not even be an MLB-caliber starter anymore. There are no prospects on the horizon ready step in as depth. It's Bloss and Rodriguez, then zero organizational depth.

 

Going into 2024, it was "well, we might not be able to score, but the pitching and defense is elite". Well now we still can't score but have, like, bottom 5 pitching.

 

You are underrating them.

 

They are presently 16th of 30 in SP fWAR in 2024, so they only need to replace Kikuchi to get to that level again. Gausman, Berrios, and Bassitt is not a sexy trio but they are all durable crafty veterans at this point so I could assume that they will make adjustments and be cromulent. Between Y Rod, Francis, Manoah, and Bloss any questions about depth (SP6-9) are covered.

 

Yes they need to add two SP, ideally a front end guy and another rotation fixture. But so many teams go into every single offseason with that same want on their list.

 

The bullpen is horrendous but it's a bullpen. Just go acquire 6 Brendon Littles, one of them will randomly be elite that's how it works.

[Brownie19]

- Either 1 high end SP or 2 SP's that are #3/4 caliber. I don't want to trust Yariel as one of the 5 starters out the gate, but I'd be fine with him as #5 SP if they signed someone like Burnes.

- A 3B, Catcher, and DH. I'd be fine with using internal options for LF (Loperfido, Clase, DS, Barger, etc).

- An entire bullpen aside from Green and Romano assuming he's healthy. Non tender Swanson.

 

It's a long shot. If Vlad and Bo have monster FA years to cash in at the end of the season then the odds improve, but they can't get away with a KK/Turner/IKF master class type of off season they had this year. They need to go big and have it pan out right away. Not really sure where they go. A lot depends on who is calling the shots. As mentioned you kinda need to figure out what you want to do with Shapiro before you let him proceed with an off season that is going to dictate the course of the next few years. If I had to predict, then I'd say they extend Shapiro, reassign Atkins, and promote someone (Click) to take over. Maybe that's already been done since this past trade deadline was a lot better than what Atkins usually does as a seller.

 

Is it? I mean a lot of these deals remind me of the McKinney/Drury/Espinal/Merryweather type trades. You think Bloss and Loperfido are better than SWR/Kay? Most of them won't produce anything. You're just hoping that 1 or 2 of them become what Teo and Espinal became for the Jays. I mean obviously we hope one of those becomes the Yordan for Josh Fields trade, but that s*** is all mostly luck anyway.

[Brownie19]

I believe an optimistic timeline could have Alek back by mid-late July or thereabouts if he doesn't experience any setbacks.

 

Perfect - just in time to trade him to the O's for a haul of prospects! I still can't believe what they gave up for Rogers.

[max silver]

Is it? I mean a lot of these deals remind me of the McKinney/Drury/Espinal/Merryweather type trades. You think Bloss and Loperfido are better than SWR/Kay? Most of them won't produce anything. You're just hoping that 1 or 2 of them become what Teo and Espinal became for the Jays. I mean obviously we hope one of those becomes the Yordan for Josh Fields trade, but that s*** is all mostly luck anyway.

 

I think a lot of these guys will ultimately used as trade capital to fill the roster out for other areas in need. The bullpen in particular needs to be restocked and a bunch of these dudes are likely to be flipped for this purpose. If even one of them turns out as a full time regular that will be an excellent return on a bunch of mostly expiring contracts.

[glory]

Is it? I mean a lot of these deals remind me of the McKinney/Drury/Espinal/Merryweather type trades. You think Bloss and Loperfido are better than SWR/Kay? Most of them won't produce anything. You're just hoping that 1 or 2 of them become what Teo and Espinal became for the Jays. I mean obviously we hope one of those becomes the Yordan for Josh Fields trade, but that s*** is all mostly luck anyway.

 

Well, Kay and SWR were acquired for Stroman (at age 28) who had a year and a half of control left and a 3 WAR in 124 innings at the time of the deal. The Jays weren't dealing anyone like that this deadline. If they were, then I'm guessing the return would have dwarfed the Stroman return from 2019 based on the market. The better comparable is Drury/McKinney vs what Kikuchi got; one was considered a heist, and it wasn't the Happ deal. That doesn't mean Bloss, Loperfido, and Wagner will pan out, they may all stink, but at the time of the trade it's a better return.

 

As far as the rest of the deals, it's all subjective and since most prospects will fail or cease to be heard from again, it's pointless to debate them individually, but I'd easily take this deadline over 2018-19. I do think Atkins did really well in 2017 though, as Teoscar (even without hindsight) was a great return for Liriano who was a rental and awful that season.

[Terminator]

Someone needs to run the financials

 

What was 2024 opening day payroll, what is the projected 2025 based on current players, so how much money is there to work with

 

I eyeballed it and with really rough arb estimates we will have about 180M on the books heading into next year. The CBT threshold will be about 241 mil. We probably have 50-60 mil to spend.

[Laika]

I eyeballed it and with really rough arb estimates we will have about 180M on the books heading into next year. The CBT threshold will be about 241 mil. We probably have 50-60 mil to spend.

 

Okay so they can maybe get

 

- one first tier player

- two second tier players

- some cheaper stopgaps

[Krylian]

Okay so they can maybe get

 

- one first tier player

- two second tier players

- some cheaper stopgaps

 

You have $100. Which of those three options seems to be the safe bet?

[Stangstag]

Is it? I mean a lot of these deals remind me of the McKinney/Drury/Espinal/Merryweather type trades. You think Bloss and Loperfido are better than SWR/Kay? Most of them won't produce anything. You're just hoping that 1 or 2 of them become what Teo and Espinal became for the Jays. I mean obviously we hope one of those becomes the Yordan for Josh Fields trade, but that s*** is all mostly luck anyway.

 

Those returns are very similar, but Stroman at the time was undoubtedly a better asset than Kikuchi. Better numbers, younger, and an extra year of control. You're also missing the 3rd player in the deal who might not be just a throw-in.

 

The Kikuchi trade blows the Stroman trade out of the water IMO

[Laika]

You have $100. Which of those three options seems to be the safe bet?

 

I mean it looks like that's what they can afford, in total. Example:

 

Burnes ($28M) many years

Santander ($14M) a few years?

Christian Walker ($14M) a couple years?

 

And then fill in the rest with the little money left or through trade. They'd still need SP depth, C depth, and a like five new relievers. This also means Vlad is 3B.

 

If they stretch for Soto then there might not be enough money left for more than one second/third tier free agent.

[Terminator]

If they stretch for Soto then there might not be enough money left for more than one second/third tier free agent.

 

It's hard to fathom the team signing Soto but if they did I could see a scenario where they go after a guy like Scherzer. Blow past the CBT but only for a year.

[Laika]

It's hard to fathom the team signing Soto but if they did I could see a scenario where they go after a guy like Scherzer. Blow past the CBT but only for a year.

 

well, best to not get our hopes up bro

 

imagine giving Ross Atkins a HIGHER payroll after 2024? f***

[Stangstag]

It's hard to fathom the team signing Soto but if they did I could see a scenario where they go after a guy like Scherzer. Blow past the CBT but only for a year.

 

Scherzer is fools gold at this point IMO