Jays in 2025

[BTS]

Bo is going to be very motivated to prove this year was a fluke and that he's a franchise player heading into free agency as a 28 year old player. I think there's a massive probability that Bo rebounds next year.

 

Since last August Bo has a sub-80 wRC+ and has hit the IL 4 times with issues with his right leg. He's been replacement level for a calendar year in part because he's been physically compromised. He also seems completely checked out. Are both of those problems going to resolve themselves this offseason?

 

I dunno - a lot has to go right for Bo to put up a 4 WAR season again for the Toronto Blue Jays

[L54]

And there's usually a base of talent to dream on. This year there isn't. The offense is Vlad and a bunch of guys you hope can be league average. The pitching is Gausman and a couple of shitballers. The team is -85 after today's game. How bad will it get? -150? This team f***ing sucks.

 

Yes it does. I really have nothing more to add

[John_Havok]

My post had nothing to do with prior seasons or playoff wins. It’s the unreal expectations some people have of what’s capable of being done in an offseason. This team is nowhere close to competing

 

Yes it shouldn’t be that hard to assemble an 80 win team with an additional 50M in 2025 commitments. And I don’t really care if they try and sell at the deadline next year because it doesn’t change anything. I just don’t understand how anyone at Rogers could see this team and be like yup let’s do it again. It’s not like it’s a guarantee that spending is going to keep people coming to the ball park

 

You don't think like a casual fan though. Never underestimate the hype train. Jays will absolutely be active in FA this offseason and make a big enough splash signing or big trade out of nowhere to make headlines and move some tickets. It might not be a Soto signing (it should be) but something big will happen.

[L54]

You don't think like a casual fan though. Never underestimate the hype train. Jays will absolutely be active in FA this offseason and make a big enough splash signing or big trade out of nowhere to make headlines and move some tickets. It might not be a Soto signing (it should be) but something big will happen.

 

Do you think like a casual fan?

[glory]

There's no doubt in my mind that Bichette will be super motivated in 2025. Seems like he's been wanting to test free agency for years now. The question isn't motivation, it's whether his body and/or skillset (low BB/.340 BABIP) will hold up. I would guess yes, but I wouldn't be too confident with that prediction. Either way, at this point if you want to maximize 2025 wins then you pretty much have to keep Bo and hope he has one more 4 WAR season in him. Then either trade him at the deadline or lose him to free agency if the team happens to contend.

 

This off season will be very telling. Is Shapiro going to go scorched earth to try to get a playoff team (which will mean spending huge in free agency) or will it be some variation of what we saw in 2018 and 2024 where they go for the best 1 year deals they can find and then pivot in case things go wrong? The latter would be something he might do if he was going to stick around for a bit.

[xposbrad]

Right but Springer, Ryu, Gausman, Bassitt etc span 4 offseasons of work. Some people are like just sign Burnes, Soto and Bregman and we can win 89 games

 

LOL and add like 30m in relievers and 20m more in bench guys, and bring payroll to 4000m and maybe we do it! Listen some people are fantasizing the Jays will go for the playoffs next year, this is a last or second to last place team in the division. I don't know why they are delaying the rebuild, but after reading the delusions of some fans here, I guess they can just go into the offseason saying they are trying for the playoffs again.

[John_Havok]

Do you think like a casual fan?

 

No, but I know how they think. It's easy. You just take how you would think, subtract 90% baseball IQ and start scrolling through fielding percentage and batting average lists.

[Nexii]

Yea it's pretty bleak, Jays have 50-60M or so in FA spending without going over the cap. That buys us 6 wins, which is less WAR than we've just traded off

 

Gotta have young talent, free agents are just a bit of an extra boost

[John_Havok]

There's no doubt in my mind that Bichette will be super motivated in 2025. Seems like he's been wanting to test free agency for years now. The question isn't motivation, it's whether his body and/or skillset (low BB/.340 BABIP) will hold up. I would guess yes, but I wouldn't be too confident with that prediction. Either way, at this point if you want to maximize 2025 wins then you pretty much have to keep Bo and hope he has one more 4 WAR season in him. Then either trade him at the deadline or lose him to free agency if the team happens to contend.

 

This off season will be very telling. Is Shapiro going to go scorched earth to try to get a playoff team (which will mean spending huge in free agency) or will it be some variation of what we saw in 2018 and 2024 where they go for the best 1 year deals they can find and then pivot in case things go wrong? The latter would be something he might do if he was going to stick around for a bit.

 

The issue is, he doesn't really have to go scorched earth because they wont be starting from "Bo is .sub 600 OPS hitter,, Springer is a sub. 650 OPS hitter... pitching will certainly be worse...." There's a reason projections exist, in order to filter out people's emotional and irrational blind spots.

 

Like, you wouldn't expect Bo to be a 5 WAR guy either, but you'd start somewhere in the middle. 2.5-3 FWAR is not an unrealistic expectation. It's not unrealistic to expect that Berrios will bounce back a little. Its not unreasonable to expect that Vlad probably wont be 2021, and probably wont be 2023. It's not unreasonable to think a healthy Romano and Green would be solid at the back end of the pen. It's probably realistic to expect a reduction in effectiveness from Bassitt, but not to the point of being unrosterable trash. Ditto Gausman probably takes a step back from his ace-like numbers, but not to the point of this season's numbers.

 

Like, when these guys are figuring out what to do, they don't just look at a run differential from this year and somehow think they will have to improve by 200-300 runs, that's an impossible task, they're going to start with projections and build from there because that's what rational people do. Sure, they'll have some numbers on the lower side, and some on the higher side.

[BTS]

Holy crap, I just realized that Varsho has the worst xwOBA of the 186 hitters with at least 300 PA this season (0.255).

[John_Havok]

Holy crap, I just realized that Varsho has the worst xwOBA of the 186 hitters with at least 300 PA this season (0.255).

 

Yeah his quality of contact is just... bad. Early on in the season he looked like he had started making much better swing decisions... taking walks... but as it went on he's gone back to old habits.

 

The other day I was watching his ABs specifically and thought I saw his hands doing some really weird s***. Like, once he decides to swing, he recoils his hands backwards again before coming forwards. I'm not a hitting expert but I would think that is detrimental and would cause him to be late.

[BTS]

Yeah his quality of contact is just... bad. Early on in the season he looked like he had started making much better swing decisions... taking walks... but as it went on he's gone back to old habits.

 

The other day I was watching his ABs specifically and thought I saw his hands doing some really weird s***. Like, once he decides to swing, he recoils his hands backwards again before coming forwards. I'm not a hitting expert but I would think that is detrimental and would cause him to be late.

 

Haven't been watching much lately, but would have assumed he was in the 0.290-0.300 range again this year. 0.255 was shocking.

[tango47]

LOL and add like 30m in relievers and 20m more in bench guys, and bring payroll to 4000m and maybe we do it! Listen some people are fantasizing the Jays will go for the playoffs next year, this is a last or second to last place team in the division. I don't know why they are delaying the rebuild, but after reading the delusions of some fans here, I guess they can just go into the offseason saying they are trying for the playoffs again.

They're either delusional or lying. I'll go for the latter. They have to keep the suckers coming in through the turnstiles. You can only have so many free hot dogs days and the novelty of the renos is wearing off. In that puffball SN interview yesterday Atkins pedalled the lie that they can compete next year. He wasn't asked how is it that this team hasn't won a single playoff game since 2016. BTW, in that same span the Rays have won 19 with a far lower payroll.

[L54]

No, but I know how they think. It's easy. You just take how you would think, subtract 90% baseball IQ and start scrolling through fielding percentage and batting average lists.

 

But this has nothing to do with them spending actual $$$ at the ball park

 

You think a big signing or trade in December is going to push people through the doors in August? I don’t see it

 

In fact it would seem to me that casual attendance revolves more around on field production than that of moderate to hard core fans. Not just Jays fans but fans in general

[BatFlip]

The issue is, he doesn't really have to go scorched earth because they wont be starting from "Bo is .sub 600 OPS hitter,, Springer is a sub. 650 OPS hitter... pitching will certainly be worse...." There's a reason projections exist, in order to filter out people's emotional and irrational blind spots.

 

Like, you wouldn't expect Bo to be a 5 WAR guy either, but you'd start somewhere in the middle. 2.5-3 FWAR is not an unrealistic expectation. It's not unrealistic to expect that Berrios will bounce back a little. Its not unreasonable to expect that Vlad probably wont be 2021, and probably wont be 2023. It's not unreasonable to think a healthy Romano and Green would be solid at the back end of the pen. It's probably realistic to expect a reduction in effectiveness from Bassitt, but not to the point of being unrosterable trash. Ditto Gausman probably takes a step back from his ace-like numbers, but not to the point of this season's numbers.

 

Like, when these guys are figuring out what to do, they don't just look at a run differential from this year and somehow think they will have to improve by 200-300 runs, that's an impossible task, they're going to start with projections and build from there because that's what rational people do. Sure, they'll have some numbers on the lower side, and some on the higher side.

 

Yup. Everyone seems to suffer from recency bias. Last year (and early in the season) everyone was clammering to extend Bo and trade Vlad. Now some want to drop $300M on Vladdy (instead of sending him to Indy ball) and want to trade Bo for cents on the dollar.

 

Projections have to be where you start from. I don’t think it’s unreasonable to put together a wild card competitor if Rogers is willing to spend again. The Jays may also get some unexpected value from where you least expect it. A silver lining on this season are the ABs Schneider will be forced to give to young controllable players (Horwitz, clement, Schneider, Loperfido) to see what we have and hopefully plug a big hole or two at minimal cost.

[L54]

LOL and add like 30m in relievers and 20m more in bench guys, and bring payroll to 4000m and maybe we do it! Listen some people are fantasizing the Jays will go for the playoffs next year, this is a last or second to last place team in the division. I don't know why they are delaying the rebuild, but after reading the delusions of some fans here, I guess they can just go into the offseason saying they are trying for the playoffs again.

 

They’re delaying the rebuild because they just sunk a billion dollars into Rogers Center renos under the guise of this super fun and elite team hitting their prime as the renos were completed

 

Now they have this massive investment and a team that has failed to reach expectations. I think we see them try hard to compete again in 25, and a new management team taking over the rebuild or retool in 26. Fun times

[max silver]

LOL and add like 30m in relievers and 20m more in bench guys, and bring payroll to 4000m and maybe we do it! Listen some people are fantasizing the Jays will go for the playoffs next year, this is a last or second to last place team in the division. I don't know why they are delaying the rebuild, but after reading the delusions of some fans here, I guess they can just go into the offseason saying they are trying for the playoffs again.

 

The team has a tough uphill battle to climb but your endless proclamations about how the team literally has zero chance to compete are no more worthwhile than those that think the club has a punchers chance at success with some prudent offseason moves. The preseason predictions saw this as a mid 80's win team and the worst case scenario unfolded in the bullpen and left this giant steaming mess. The club has essentially league average starting pitching and a very close to average offense since the calendar turned to April. With a more typical Bo Bichette season and some sensible position player additions the offense can be decent to even good again. The bullpen is going to be the hardest thing to fix given the amount of holes, but it's not like this team is completely starting from scratch the way so many of the naysayers are carrying on.

[L54]

Yup. Everyone seems to suffer from recency bias. Last year (and early in the season) everyone was clammering to extend Bo and trade Vlad. Now some want to drop $300M on Vladdy (instead of sending him to Indy ball) and want to trade Bo for cents on the dollar.

 

Projections have to be where you start from. I don’t think it’s unreasonable to put together a wild card competitor if Rogers is willing to spend again. The Jays may also get some unexpected value from where you least expect it. A silver lining on this season are the ABs Schneider will be forced to give to young controllable players (Horwitz, clement, Schneider, Loperfido) to see what we have and hopefully plug a big hole or two at minimal cost.

 

It’s not impossible but what are the projections going to say about this team once the offseason starts? Under .500? I would say yes. Bottom 5 team in the AL

[max silver]

It’s not impossible but what are the projections going to say about this team once the offseason starts? Under .500? I would say yes. Bottom 5 team in the AL

 

Who cares what the projections say as the offseason starts? Anyone can see the team is going to have a very busy offseason in free agency and trade attempting to fill the holes on the roster. The projections that matter are those that happen after the offseason moves are complete.

Edited August 1, 2024 by max silver

[BatFlip]

It’s not impossible but what are the projections going to say about this team once the offseason starts? Under .500? I would say yes. Bottom 5 team in the AL

 

Yeah, I don't disagree. Maybe a 78 win team? Then the question is whether the org can add 8+ WAR with $55M and some better luck.

[Stangstag]

The team has a tough uphill battle to climb but your endless proclamations about how the team literally has zero chance to compete are no more worthwhile than those that think the club has a punchers chance at success with some prudent offseason moves. The preseason predictions saw this as a mid 80's win team and the worst case scenario unfolded in the bullpen and left this giant steaming mess. The club has essentially league average starting pitching and a very close to average offense since the calendar turned to April. With a more typical Bo Bichette season and some sensible position player additions the offense can be decent to even good again. The bullpen is going to be the hardest thing to fix given the amount of holes, but it's not like this team is completely starting from scratch the way so many of the naysayers are carrying on.

 

Its not difficult to imagine a scenario where the bullpen ends up being good next year with no new additions.

 

Swanson bounce back

Healthy Romano (assuming he returns)

Healthy and dominant Green

 

It turned to s*** this year and just as easily could flip back.

 

Now, that is leaning alot on “hope” but that’s kinda what we’re gonna need to compete.

[Joltin Joe]

Holy crap, I just realized that Varsho has the worst xwOBA of the 186 hitters with at least 300 PA this season (0.255).

Kevin Pillar 2.0

[L54]

Who cares what the projections say as the offseason starts? Anyone can see the team is going to have a very busy offseason in free agency and trade attempting to fill the holes on the roster. The projections that matter are those that happen after the offseason moves are complete.

 

Because the post and post before that in which I was replying to were talking about projections

 

So that’s why I brought up projections

 

Because the projections aren’t going to be nice to the Blue Jays

 

Any other questions Einstein?

[L54]

Yeah, I don't disagree. Maybe a 78 win team? Then the question is whether the org can add 8+ WAR with $55M and some better luck.

 

Seems like the minimum needed to compete - 8 WAR and then some bounce backs from guys already here

[Jimcanuck]

Jays will sign Bregman and market the s*** out of it

[John_Havok]

Its not difficult to imagine a scenario where the bullpen ends up being good next year with no new additions.

 

Swanson bounce back

Healthy Romano (assuming he returns)

Healthy and dominant Green

 

It turned to s*** this year and just as easily could flip back.

 

Now, that is leaning alot on “hope” but that’s kinda what we’re gonna need to compete.

 

There's a bit of a fine line between hope and the probability of positive regression to the mean though.

[max silver]

Because the post and post before that in which I was replying to were talking about projections

 

So that’s why I brought up projections

 

Because the projections aren’t going to be nice to the Blue Jays

 

Any other questions Einstein?

 

Are you honestly dumb enough to care about what the projections say before the team is even assembled? That's not exactly mensa level stuff bub.

[Carlos Danger]

There's a bit of a fine line between hope and the probability of positive regression to the mean though.

 

Ross and I attend the same Jane Austen book club meetings every Tuesday evening. After the meeting we usually go to Starbucks and Ross has a lavender oat milk, cinnamon dolce latte and we talk baseball.

 

I have told Ross numerous times, hope, is NOT a strategy.

 

He just does.....not..... listen.......

[Brownie19]

There's a bit of a fine line between hope and the probability of positive regression to the mean though.

 

Baseball is all probabilities these days...

[Jimcanuck]

Yep and there is a slim probability the Jays are contenders in 2025

 

They will "rebuild" while maintaining enough hope to sell tickets to casuals