Jays in 2025

[Brownie19]

Those returns are very similar, but Stroman at the time was undoubtedly a better asset than Kikuchi. Better numbers, younger, and an extra year of control. You're also missing the 3rd player in the deal who might not be just a throw-in.

 

The Kikuchi trade blows the Stroman trade out of the water IMO

 

I would generally agree the returns are similar. I understand the extra year of control (at $12M) adds good value. I don't agree Stroman was a better pitcher when traded (4.06 xFIP v. 3.41 xFIP for Kikuchi this year and Kikuchi's striking out 3 more per 9 and walking less than Stro was). You also have to consider the market differences between 2019 and 2024.

 

I'm just not sure the "difference" is SOOOO much that I'd claim that someone else must be in charge now because this trade deadline was a lot better than what Atkins usually does as a seller. Not sure I buy that.

[Abomination]

Scherzer is fools gold at this point IMO

 

He's not an ace anymore, but the stats are still legit. He wouldn't be a terrible option to slot in as a #4 on a 1 year deal. The recent fatigue issues are a little more concerning though.

 

Montas or Paxton could also be affordable 1 year deal candidates for a bottom of the rotation role.

[glory]

well, best to not get our hopes up bro

 

imagine giving Ross Atkins a HIGHER payroll after 2024? f***

 

Yeah Rogers has to have some reservations at this point, though I'm sure Shapiro can talk them into it, especially if Vlad isn't signed to an extension. The only way to maximize (or at least attempt to maximize) what's left of this group is to spend big. If Rogers isn't willing to go into the 2nd tax threshold then they might as well sell in the off season.

 

With that said, Soto is a pipe dream. They would be competing with the Yankees who are already going to make the playoffs with Soto on the roster (so there's familiarity there), in addition to the Mets who look like they might make the playoffs this year + have Steve Cohen, and I'm sure the Dodgers will take a run at him as well with $500m in deferred payments somewhere in there. No chance the Jays coming off a miserable season are going to compete with that unless they blow the other offers out the water, which won't happen.

 

If they make a big splash anywhere, then I think it's probably Bregman, although not sure that's the best idea given his age and performance this season. Regardless he's the best combination of filling a big need and a realistic signing (I can't imagine the market for him will be crazy high).

[Brownie19]

Yeah Rogers has to have some reservations at this point, though I'm sure Shapiro can talk them into it, especially if Vlad isn't signed to an extension. The only way to maximize (or at least attempt to maximize) what's left of this group is to spend big. If Rogers isn't willing to go into the 2nd tax threshold then they might as well sell in the off season.

 

With that said, Soto is a pipe dream. They would be competing with the Yankees who are already going to make the playoffs with Soto on the roster (so there's familiarity there), in addition to the Mets who look like they might make the playoffs this year + have Steve Cohen, and I'm sure the Dodgers will take a run at him as well with $500m in deferred payments somewhere in there. No chance the Jays coming off a miserable season are going to compete with that unless they blow the other offers out the water, which won't happen.

 

If they make a big splash anywhere, then I think it's probably Bregman, although not sure that's the best idea given his age and performance this season. Regardless he's the best combination of filling a big need and a realistic signing (I can't imagine the market for him will be crazy high).

 

I agree with all of this. We aren't signing Soto. Bregman would scare the s*** out of me on a long term deal. Big drop in BB% this year, which typically means the bat speed and skills are eroding. I'd take him on a 1 year deal if he wants to rebuild his value though...

 

That got me thinking about the Rogers park factor and whether it's changed much this year. Even found the numbers myself - https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/statcast-park-factors?type=year&year=2024&batSide=&stat=index_wOBA&condition=All&rolling=

 

Looks like Rogers Centre has been pretty consistent, before and after the renos. I thought that was interesting as there was a lot of chatter last year that the team f***ed up the hitting environment.

[tango47]

This team is in a load of hurt. No way will it be competitive for at least 3 years. Gausman, Bassitt and Berrios are all having subpar seasons. Especially Berrios, who started off fine this season but is now being regularly lit up. These guys may all be on the downsides of their careers. Rodriguez is still a question mark and Bloss is an unknown quantity. If you're depending on Schneider, Barger , Jimenez et al to be everyday players then there are major holes in your lineup. Varsho is what he's shown . Maybe a .240 hitter in a good season. I like what Horwitz and Clement have demonstrated but we'll see next year when pitchers have a book on them. Kirk hit .285 in his first season and it's been steadily downhill since then. Springer may be serviceable for another year or two. With Bichette, who knows where his mind is at. He knows now that this team will stink in the foreseeable future and it seems that he wanted out of here even before the trades. I think that they have to keep Vladdy to give the fans an illusion of hope. I agree that the bullpen is the easiest fix but I don't trust the clown duo .

[Laika]

I don't think they have a shot at Soto, New York is going to be under so much pressure to keep him after his monstrous season

 

Bregman is a trap

 

I'd rather give big money to Burnes if chasing one of the stud FA

 

Or maybe do something like sign Adames for a mid-range contract and trade Bo for another need.

[Abomination]

I agree with all of this. Bregman would scare the s*** out of me on a long term deal. Big drop in BB% this year, which typically means the bat speed and skills are eroding. I'd take him on a 1 year deal if he wants to rebuild his value though....too bad the dome isn't the hitters paradise like it used to be - it made it attractive to hitters. Or at least I don't think it's a hitter paradise anymore. Does anyone have updated stadium factors? Any change from last year?

 

We're 23rd.

[G-Snarls]

I don't think they have a shot at Soto, New York is going to be under so much pressure to keep him after his monstrous season

 

Bregman is a trap

 

I'd rather give big money to Burnes if chasing one of the stud FA

 

Or maybe do something like sign Adames for a mid-range contract and trade Bo for another need.

 

Signing a #1 SP and RPs via free agency and trading for bats probably the only way to go

[Laika]

Signing a #1 SP and RPs via free agency and trading for bats probably the only way to go

 

While remaining on the prowl for pillow contracts

 

Maybe Pete Alonso is forced to sign a 1 year deal for example

[Brownie19]

We're 23rd.

 

Not according to this - https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/statcast-park-factors?type=year&year=2024&batSide=&stat=index_wOBA&condition=All&rolling=

 

Sorry - instead of asking, I decided to just go look myself and edited my post. Where'd you get 23rd from?

[L54]

Doesn’t this board do the same thing every offseason

 

Sign 2 of the top 5 and 4 of the top 10 free agents and our problems are solved!

 

And it never happens and probably never will

 

Then the assumption that Rogers is going to add 50M in payroll again. What is the incentive? I don’t see one

 

Even after selling this team is still stuck in limbo

[tango47]

Signing a #1 SP and RPs via free agency and trading for bats probably the only way to go

 

They've used up just about all of their trade capital. I don't think that you'll get a haul for any of our starters given their contracts.A blockbuster Bichette or Vladdy trade. Maybe. But you'd be selling Bichette low considering his poor season. There are a myriad of holes on this team that is not fixable in one off season. Don't believe anything the clown says. Remember that just a few weeks ago he said emphatically that he had faith in all of his players and that they would rebound for a playoff push. He was either lying or he's just plain incompetent and can't judge talent.

[Abomination]

Not according to this - https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/statcast-park-factors?type=year&year=2024&batSide=&stat=index_wOBA&condition=All&rolling=

 

Sorry - instead of asking, I decided to just go look myself and edited my post. Where'd you get 23rd from?

 

You have it set to a rolling 3 year average, not just 2024.

[Brownie19]

Doesn’t this board do the same thing every offseason

 

Sign 2 of the top 5 and 4 of the top 10 free agents and our problems are solved!

 

And it never happens and probably never will

 

Then the assumption that Rogers is going to add 50M in payroll again. What is the incentive? I don’t see one

 

Even after selling this team is still stuck in limbo

 

I think that depends on your definition of success. You see zero playoff wins and think that means it's a colossal failure. Others see a team that averaged 90 wins, but didn't win the coin flips in the playoffs. For all we know, Rogers is quite happy with the recent results (outside of this year). I kind of expect that the objective next year may be to assemble a 80-85 win team - keep the stadium packed with naive fans, while hopefully developing some younger players. There's an avenue for this to happen with some FA dollars. You and other fans may hate this idea, but the Owners may love it.

[Omar]

They've used up just about all of their trade capital. I don't think that you'll get a haul for any of our starters given their contracts.A blockbuster Bichette or Vladdy trade. Maybe. But you'd be selling Bichette low considering his poor season. There are a myriad of holes on this team that is not fixable in one off season. Don't believe anything the clown says. Remember that just a few weeks ago he said emphatically that he had faith in all of his players and that they would rebound for a playoff push. He was either lying or he's just plain incompetent and can't judge talent.

 

What do you expect him to say? That we suck and the season is over and thereby undermine his trade advantage by telling all of baseball that we are desperate? Give it a rest.

[tango47]

What do you expect him to say? That we suck and the season is over and thereby undermine his trade advantage by telling all of baseball that we are desperate? Give it a rest.

 

So he was lying. Thanks for confirming that. MLB GMs are generally not idiots. They could plainly see that this team wasn't going anywhere.

[BTS]

Doesn’t this board do the same thing every offseason

 

Sign 2 of the top 5 and 4 of the top 10 free agents and our problems are solved!

 

And it never happens and probably never will

 

Then the assumption that Rogers is going to add 50M in payroll again. What is the incentive? I don’t see one

 

Even after selling this team is still stuck in limbo

 

And there's usually a base of talent to dream on. This year there isn't. The offense is Vlad and a bunch of guys you hope can be league average. The pitching is Gausman and a couple of shitballers. The team is -85 after today's game. How bad will it get? -150? This team f***ing sucks.

[Terminator]

Doesn’t this board do the same thing every offseason

 

Sign 2 of the top 5 and 4 of the top 10 free agents and our problems are solved!

 

And it never happens and probably never will

 

Then the assumption that Rogers is going to add 50M in payroll again. What is the incentive? I don’t see one

 

Even after selling this team is still stuck in limbo

 

Soto is ridiculous. I cringed while typing his name out. It's not happening. Forgive me.

 

But in this new era of Jays ball we do sign top FAs pretty consistently now. Springer (6 for 150), Gausman (5 for 110), Ryu (4 for 80), traded for Berrios and extended him immediately (7 for 131), Bassitt (3 for 63). We also paid pretty good money for a RP in Chad Green and hand out 1 year 10M-ish deals all the time. Even last year we were among the biggest spenders in AAV we just spread it around.

 

So with 60 mil to spend before we hit the luxury tax and the team targeting older prospects, I think it's a pretty reasonable assumption to think that we will be players in FA this year. We also traded enough guys to get just under the luxury tax and the team seemed to purposefully do that which could be another tell.

 

Whether the team should spend is an entirely different discussion and I agree with you on the team being in limbo. But they do seem to want to try and win in '25 so I think discussing the FAs that aren't Soto is somewhat realistic.

[Stangstag]

And there's usually a base of talent to dream on. This year there isn't. The offense is Vlad and a bunch of guys you hope can be league average. The pitching is Gausman and a couple of shitballers. The team is -85 after today's game. How bad will it get? -150? This team f***ing sucks.

 

So we're just completely writing off Bo now after a bad year? Next year is his walk year too, i'd put money on a rebound.

[BTS]

So we're just completely writing off Bo now after a bad year? Next year is his walk year too, i'd put money on a rebound.

 

Yeah, I think we can basically write Bo off as an above-average player on this team. With the way he sulked through the season, openly mused about being traded, and apparently refuses to entertain an extension I don't even think he'll be here next year.

[Stangstag]

Yeah, I think we can basically write Bo off as an above-average player on this team. With the way he sulked through the season, openly mused about being traded, and apparently refuses to entertain an extension I don't even think he'll be here next year.

 

You’re far more flippant than I thought you were

[BTS]

You’re far more flippant than I thought you were

 

lol, OK good talk

[Eat My Shatkins]

Hard to even guess what the 2025 Jays will be.

 

Are we getting .580 OPS Springer or .750+ OPS Springer?

Are we getting Top 10 hitter Vlad, or are we getting Vladdy Groundballo Jr?

 

What in the actual f*** is Bichette, if he's even still here?

 

In a perfect Jays world you trade Bichette, sign Adames, Soto, Burnes. (Pipe dream though)

 

I'd also like to see Vlad play 3rd the rest of the season, what is there to lose?

[Laika]

Bo gets a full mulligan for me lol

 

I can't write him off

 

I mean we just all thought Vlad was completely busted for like, an entire year before he just found out how to be elite again

[Eat My Shatkins]

Bo gets a full mulligan for me lol

 

I can't write him off

 

I mean we just all thought Vlad was completely busted for like, an entire year before he just found out how to be elite again

 

Such a s***** situation with Bo.

 

If he bounces back next year then what? I guess if the Jays are out of it then it's an easy deadline trade, but if they're in the hunt they'll have to watch him walk for nothing. If they trade him this off season I doubt he has much value right now.

[Laika]

Such a s***** situation with Bo.

 

If he bounces back next year then what? I guess if the Jays are out of it then it's an easy deadline trade, but if they're in the hunt they'll have to watch him walk for nothing. If they trade him this off season I doubt he has much value right now.

 

It's okay

 

You don't need to milk surplus value that goes on forever out of every good player

 

Only poor teams need to do that

[Brownie19]

Bo gets a full mulligan for me lol

 

I can't write him off

 

I mean we just all thought Vlad was completely busted for like, an entire year before he just found out how to be elite again

 

Bo is going to be very motivated to prove this year was a fluke and that he's a franchise player heading into free agency as a 28 year old player. I think there's a massive probability that Bo rebounds next year.

[metafour]

Bo gets a full mulligan for me lol

 

I can't write him off

 

I mean we just all thought Vlad was completely busted for like, an entire year before he just found out how to be elite again

 

Bo has a lot of leg injuries that are piling up. All to the same leg as well I'm pretty sure.

 

Vlad was just a case of whether he could remember what made him good in the first place.

[L54]

I think that depends on your definition of success. You see zero playoff wins and think that means it's a colossal failure. Others see a team that averaged 90 wins, but didn't win the coin flips in the playoffs. For all we know, Rogers is quite happy with the recent results (outside of this year). I kind of expect that the objective next year may be to assemble a 80-85 win team - keep the stadium packed with naive fans, while hopefully developing some younger players. There's an avenue for this to happen with some FA dollars. You and other fans may hate this idea, but the Owners may love it.

 

My post had nothing to do with prior seasons or playoff wins. It’s the unreal expectations some people have of what’s capable of being done in an offseason. This team is nowhere close to competing

 

Yes it shouldn’t be that hard to assemble an 80 win team with an additional 50M in 2025 commitments. And I don’t really care if they try and sell at the deadline next year because it doesn’t change anything. I just don’t understand how anyone at Rogers could see this team and be like yup let’s do it again. It’s not like it’s a guarantee that spending is going to keep people coming to the ball park

[L54]

Soto is ridiculous. I cringed while typing his name out. It's not happening. Forgive me.

 

But in this new era of Jays ball we do sign top FAs pretty consistently now. Springer (6 for 150), Gausman (5 for 110), Ryu (4 for 80), traded for Berrios and extended him immediately (7 for 131), Bassitt (3 for 63). We also paid pretty good money for a RP in Chad Green and hand out 1 year 10M-ish deals all the time. Even last year we were among the biggest spenders in AAV we just spread it around.

 

So with 60 mil to spend before we hit the luxury tax and the team targeting older prospects, I think it's a pretty reasonable assumption to think that we will be players in FA this year. We also traded enough guys to get just under the luxury tax and the team seemed to purposefully do that which could be another tell.

 

Whether the team should spend is an entirely different discussion and I agree with you on the team being in limbo. But they do seem to want to try and win in '25 so I think discussing the FAs that aren't Soto is somewhat realistic.

 

Right but Springer, Ryu, Gausman, Bassitt etc span 4 offseasons of work. Some people are like just sign Burnes, Soto and Bregman and we can win 89 games