GDT: 1/3 Red Sox vs Jays (7:07pm et)

[Laika]

This is what bothers me more than the "could have signed/traded for X instead" arguments. If the FA market sucked, and the trade market couldn't lead to anything useful, then why spend $40m on IKF, Turner, KK, and Vogelbach? Those signings were a big reason why they are a tax paying team this season (barring a trade deadline sell off). Like, the Yankees are spending more than ownership wants, but a big part of that is bringing Judge back, signing Rodon, trading for Soto, etc. They are spending big because they aimed as high as possible. What Atkins did was borderline irresponsible given the penalties that come with going over the CBT. He could have started the season with Barger/Clement at 3B, Horowitz (+ platoon buddy) at DH, and Tommy Pham or equivalent in LF, and the team would be no better or worse off, except younger and well below the tax. That's not hindsight. KK is 34 coming off an offensive season he wasn't going to duplicate, and Turner is 100 coming off a season that had red flags all over it. IKF is what he is. Vogelbach probably helped the Toronto food industry in the 2 months he was around, but a fat DH who can't do anything except hit RHP being used as a once a week bench player made no sense.

 

They had, and continue to have, almost NO faith in their young players.

 

To sign KK and his ~2 WAR projection and IKF and his ~1.5 WAR projection means they must have had internal projections of like 1 WAR and 0.6 WAR at LF and 3B, from their internal players (Schneider and Barger?). And somehow had Vogelbach as a push at worst with Horwitz.

 

Atkins hates the Buffalo boys half the time. That's why they hit leadoff or 2nd and then get the next game on the bench. It's all desperate stupid nonsense.

[MikeM3]

All low ceiling signings that a 100 win team would make. The correct process was someone like Giolito with 5 win upside to take the #5 spot. Unlikely that he hits but if he does you gain 5 wins because #5 is 0.0.

 

Our signings were just drawing dead. Said at the time so this isn't hindsight

[Terminator]

The other thing they do that is annoying is that they don't use their bench after the game starts.

 

This is the best bench we've had in franchise history. They should be make changes very early in the game.

 

We've got a 3 run lead in the 5th inning and Horwitz just slap hit a single? Pinch run with Clement and let him take over 2B for the defense.

 

KK comes up to bat in a huge spot in the 4th and we are down by 3 runs? Put Barger in there to see if he can get an extra base hit.

 

Instead, the starting 9 plays until the end of the game almost no matter what.

[glory]

They had, and continue to have, almost NO faith in their young players.

 

To sign KK and his ~2 WAR projection and IKF and his ~1.5 WAR projection means they must have had internal projections of like 1 WAR and 0.6 WAR at LF and 3B, from their internal players (Schneider and Barger?). And somehow had Vogelbach as a push at worst with Horwitz.

 

Atkins hates the Buffalo boys half the time. That's why they hit leadoff or 2nd and then get the next game on the bench. It's all desperate stupid nonsense.

 

It's an organization with no plan or direction. Between how they've handled prospects this season, to how they've handled injuries (Gausman, Romano, Swanson), to how they've handled playing time (ex. Springer will get 600 PA even if he never gets another extra base hit for the rest of the season), to how they've handled payroll, to how they handled the off-season....it's been about as bad all around as I can remember. Like this is the same FO that talked about waves of talent and sustainable contention, yet they hate their prospects and built an old tax paying team almost entirely through free agency. Nothing makes sense. The 2021-22 teams and the 2023-24 teams feel like they were built by two different FO's.

[Terminator]

Maybe Ross is reading the board because we have 4 Buffalo Boys in the starting lineup tonight and he just called up a 5th.

[Omar]

Nothing could have been done other than what Atkins actually did.

 

I mean that the end result was more destiny than anything else. Free will is an illusion. The decisions made this offseason were more or less pre-ordained, pre-determined by context and circumstance and common sense and the choices the Blue Jays have made over the last few years. And more remotely, in some respects, Atkins' parents put this all in motion since they are the ones who formed his personality. But even his hiring was inevitable. Mark Shapiro was always going to be the President of the Blue Jays. He was always going to hire Ross. These things were meant to be.

 

We exist at the tail end of an unimaginably complex Rube Goldberg machine, which God himself triggered into motion.

 

Our suffering is unavoidable and intentional and mechanical.

 

There is no reason to be upset.

 

I knew it! Eventually this whole season would reduced to hard determinism. Just didn't think Laika would be the one.

 

All pre ordained, a prisoner in chains. Oh well....I'm outta here.

Edited June 18, 2024 by Omar

[Omar]

Maybe Ross is reading the board because we have 4 Buffalo Boys in the starting lineup tonight and he just called up a 5th.

 

Of course he reads the board.

 

I think Ross Atkins is Olerud363.

[wilko]

Of course he reads the board.

 

I think Ross Atkins is Olerud363.

 

[Laika]

Maybe Ross is reading the board because we have 4 Buffalo Boys in the starting lineup tonight and he just called up a 5th.

 

sick as f*** wow

 

super awesome dude

[AMS528]

Yeah just does not make much too much sense to hate on Atkins FA signings.

 

Really the only one I think everyone can agree on disliking cause it just didn't make any sense is KK. When you luck into a 4 WAR season by a 33 year old, the thing to not do is see if you'll get lucky again. Especially when you already have an elite CF on your roster.

 

That was 10 million that could have been used elsewhere.

[Stangstag]

I find it hilarious that short term FA signings are now one of the top complaints of this FO. That's literally been one of the things that Atkins has consistently gotten right in his time in Toronto. Free agency signings are a crapshoot at best and Atkins has a pretty damn good track record - but as soon as he misses on a few, he's s*** on by fans for not being perfect.

 

Drafting, player development - s*** on that all you want. It's the reason there's was so much pressure on them to "hit" in the FA market the last couple of years. But the Jays have been in the playoffs in 3 of the past 4 years (should have been 4 for 4) on the back of Atkin's ability to bring in quality free agents (and for the team to fix them and/or get the most out of them).

 

I generally agree, I just think they took the wrong route signing 2 defense-first guys that could have easily been replaced by Buffalo guys. Would have rather had another bat, especially after how bad the offense looked last year.

 

End of the day, these short-term deals won’t hurt but I feel they were too worried about overall WAR vs putting more emphasis on offensive WAR.

 

Theoretically it’s supposed to balance out in the end but IDK its just hard to watch this team consistently fail to score runs

[glory]

Atkins being really good with FA signings over the last 3-4 years is the reason why the KK, Turner, and IKF off season was so disappointing.

[G-Snarls]

Atkins being really good with FA signings over the last 3-4 years is the reason why the KK, Turner, and IKF off season was so disappointing.

 

Yeah, they seemed a far cry from Gausman, Ryu, Ray, Semien, Belt, etc. Springer was also good for the first half of the contract.

[max silver]

Atkins being really good with FA signings over the last 3-4 years is the reason why the KK, Turner, and IKF off season was so disappointing.

 

Turner might not be a total writeoff as he had a tremendous month of April and appears to have righted the ship in June as well. He had a legitimately awful 3 weeks where he looked like his career was over so hopefully he can avoid these types of deep slumps over the rest of the season.

[jaysblue]

I find it hilarious that short term FA signings are now one of the top complaints of this FO. That's literally been one of the things that Atkins has consistently gotten right in his time in Toronto. Free agency signings are a crapshoot at best and Atkins has a pretty damn good track record - but as soon as he misses on a few, he's s*** on by fans for not being perfect.

 

Drafting, player development - s*** on that all you want. It's the reason there's was so much pressure on them to "hit" in the FA market the last couple of years. But the Jays have been in the playoffs in 3 of the past 4 years (should have been 4 for 4) on the back of Atkin's ability to bring in quality free agents (and for the team to fix them and/or get the most out of them).

 

I don't think anyone complained about short term FA signings or are s***ing on Atkins on a couple of FA misses. No GM is ever perfect when it comes to FA signings or trades. Atkins has been very rock solid when it comes to FA signings for the most part. However, given the issue dating back from the beginning of last season, they should have targeted FA's or trades that would have helped the lineup, rather than doubling down on defensive first players like KK or targeting a 40-year-old DH.

 

Should have been 4 for 4 indeed and we should be talking about 5 for 5. It's unfortunate Atkins hasn't been able to take advantage of this window.

[Terminator]

FYI we declared a truce on the offseason posts.

 

We primarily talk about the Buffalo Boys now.

[jaysblue]

I generally agree, I just think they took the wrong route signing 2 defense-first guys that could have easily been replaced by Buffalo guys. Would have rather had another bat, especially after how bad the offense looked last year.

 

End of the day, these short-term deals won’t hurt but I feel they were too worried about overall WAR vs putting more emphasis on offensive WAR.

 

Theoretically it’s supposed to balance out in the end but IDK its just hard to watch this team consistently fail to score runs

 

Yeah perfectly said. Nothing wrong with this criticism at all. Given the offensive struggles dating back from the beginning of 2023, they should have targeted more offensive minded players in LF and at DH.

 

Otherwise, overall Atkins has made a lot of fantastic FA signings in the past and I don't think anyone on here is questioning that. Just question the strategy they took this previous offseason to address a significant issue that was evident during all of the 2023 season. Some FA bats would have helped more than KK and Turner.

[connorp]

Nothing could have been done other than what Atkins actually did.

 

I mean that the end result was more destiny than anything else. Free will is an illusion. The decisions made this offseason were more or less pre-ordained, pre-determined by context and circumstance and common sense and the choices the Blue Jays have made over the last few years. And more remotely, in some respects, Atkins' parents put this all in motion since they are the ones who formed his personality. But even his hiring was inevitable. Mark Shapiro was always going to be the President of the Blue Jays. He was always going to hire Ross. These things were meant to be.

 

We exist at the tail end of an unimaginably complex Rube Goldberg machine, which God himself triggered into motion.

 

Our suffering is unavoidable and intentional and mechanical.

 

There is no reason to be upset.

 

Butterfly effect/chaos theory is scientific terminology, not religious

[Spanky99]

There were lots of moves

 

Do tell... remember Birds were in on them all. Choice is different.

[Brownie19]

But the answer wasn’t doubling down on KK and the fielding % championships after it didn’t work the first time

 

Interesting...but you do think the answer was to double down on an offensive team that was below average defensively after we missed the playoffs in 2021 and had the 2022 WC game defensive collapse?

 

Personally, I certainly enjoy a team that hits the snot out of the ball and scores a lot of runs, but that didn't exactly produce the results we wanted either and blowing games with defensive lapses is still super frustrating. I can't say I blame the FO for trying to find some balance - it just hasn't worked out at all, as the offensive core we expected to produce simply hasn't at all.

[L54]

Interesting...but you do think the answer was to double down on an offensive team that was below average defensively after we missed the playoffs in 2021 and had the 2022 WC game defensive collapse?

 

Personally, I certainly enjoy a team that hits the snot out of the ball and scores a lot of runs, but that didn't exactly produce the results we wanted either and blowing games with defensive lapses is still super frustrating. I can't say I blame the FO for trying to find some balance - it just hasn't worked out at all, as the offensive core we expected to produce simply hasn't at all.

 

Pal you’re putting words in my mouth

 

I didn’t say double down on an offensive team with below average defender but it probably would’ve been smarter to do that. At least that team looked like it had a chance

 

I don’t think they found a balance at all. s*** happens last year but to double down on it this year was dumb

[Brownie19]

Pal you’re putting words in my mouth

 

I didn’t say double down on an offensive team with below average defender but it probably would’ve been smarter to do that. At least that team looked like it had a chance

 

I don’t think they found a balance at all. s*** happens last year but to double down on it this year was dumb

 

I didn't put words in your mouth - I literally asked you a question...

 

The Jays were a Top 2 offense, with a middling defense (ranked 15th overall combined in 2021/22 in Def) in 2021/2022 and the results weren't there. I fully expected they though they could sacrifice "some" offense for defense and field a team with a Top 5-7 offense and a Top 5-10 defense. I think most would have supported this adjustment and felt it would lead to better results. And to be fair, that's almost what happened last year. The team's wRC+ was 7th in baseball and their def was 4th overall. The issue was the wRC+ didn't produce runs at the same rate. Whether that was RISP issues, lack of power or bad luck, the actual runs scored fell well behind some of the other offensive metrics they would use.

 

If you're the Jays FO, they probably looked at this and said "f*** sakes - the projections and metrics suggest we're actually quite close to executing the plan. RISP success isn't consistent from year to year and if a few of our key core players rebound even a bit, there's a good chance we could be a Top 5-7 offense with a Top 5 defense. We also have several prospects in the upper minors who are close and/or ready who can fill in if we get injuries or need a boost". Obviously that's completely blown up in their faces, but I don't think it's that difficult to understand why they decided to double down for a second season (I do think the difficulty in understanding it comes from the incredible frustration of watching if fail again).

 

Would you rather have a Top 2 offense with the 15th best defense, or a Top 5-7 offense with a Top 5 defense?

Edited June 24, 2024 by Brownie19

[Stangstag]

I didn't put words in your mouth - I literally asked you a question...

 

The Jays were a Top 2 offense, with a middling defense (ranked 15th overall combined in 2021/22 in Def) in 2021/2022 and the results weren't there. I fully expected they though they could sacrifice "some" offense for defense and field a team with a Top 5-7 offense and a Top 5-10 defense. I think most would have supported this adjustment and felt it would lead to better results. And to be fair, that's almost what happened last year. The team's wRC+ was 7th in baseball and their def was 4th overall. The issue was the wRC+ didn't produce runs at the same rate. Whether that was RISP issues, lack of power or bad luck, the actual runs scored fell well behind some of the other offensive metrics they would use.

 

If you're the Jays FO, they probably looked at this and said "f*** sakes - the projects and metrics suggest we're actually quite close to executing the plan. RISP success isn't consistent from year to year and if a few of our key core players rebound even a bit, there's a good chance we could be a Top 5-7 offense with a Top 5 defense. We also have several prospects in the upper minors who are close and/or ready who can fill in if we get injuries or need a boost". Obviously that's completely blown up in their faces, but I don't think it's that difficult to understand why they decided to double down for a second season (I do think the difficulty in understanding it comes from the incredible frustration of watching if fail again).

 

Would you rather have a Top 2 offense with the 15th best defense, or a Top 5-7 offense with a Top 5 defense?

 

If im the Jays FO I wouldn’t double down and leave things to chance. I would’ve sacrificed some defense for extra offense in 2024.

 

Top 2 O with 15th D would be a much better product to watch, even if the record was the same. And then they could also say that THEY f***ING TRIED. Instead of sitting on their asses and not bothering to address the #1 problem from last year.

[Eat My Shatkins]

If im the Jays FO I wouldn’t double down and leave things to chance. I would’ve sacrificed some defense for extra offense in 2024.

 

Top 2 O with 15th D would be a much better product to watch, even if the record was the same. And then they could also say that THEY f***ING TRIED. Instead of sitting on their asses and not bothering to address the #1 problem from last year.

 

How in the world were they supposed to get a top 2 offense in 2024?

[Brownie19]

If im the Jays FO I wouldn’t double down and leave things to chance. I would’ve sacrificed some defense for extra offense in 2024.

 

Top 2 O with 15th D would be a much better product to watch, even if the record was the same. And then they could also say that THEY f***ING TRIED. Instead of sitting on their asses and not bothering to address the #1 problem from last year.

 

I sure hope the FO worries more about the results vs. how fans perceive the product they are watching. I also don't think that bailing on a sound strategy after one failed season makes sense - especially if it's to try and revert back to a strategy that they tried for 2 seasons without the desired results. I suspect they felt the offense should have been better last year and should have been a top 5-10 offense, which, coupled with a great defense and good pitching, was a good recipe for success. Obviously that hasn't worked out at all, but I can appreciate the logic. Had they known Bo would hit like Goins and that Kirk, Springer, Vlad, KK, even Jansen would take another step back offensively, I do think they would have taken a different approach this offseason. Why that happened is the real nugget to answer.

 

The team entered the season with a 50-60% chance of making the playoffs, so it's not like this approach was projected to produce horrible results.

[glory]

Interesting...but you do think the answer was to double down on an offensive team that was below average defensively after we missed the playoffs in 2021 and had the 2022 WC game defensive collapse?

 

Personally, I certainly enjoy a team that hits the snot out of the ball and scores a lot of runs, but that didn't exactly produce the results we wanted either and blowing games with defensive lapses is still super frustrating. I can't say I blame the FO for trying to find some balance - it just hasn't worked out at all, as the offensive core we expected to produce simply hasn't at all.

 

The 2021 team had a 99-63 pythWL, and the 2022 team had the 3rd best record in the AL. They were doing just fine even with the lack of playoff success.

 

In game 2 of the Wild Card round, the Jays were up 8-1 and had to get a replacement in LF (I think Merrifield had to leave the game but my memory is fuzzy there). There was a guy on the bench whose only skill was playing defense (JBJ), but at that point, with a 7 run lead just put your best defender in the game and hold it. Instead, they put Tapia into the game (someone who they non tendered like 5 minutes after the season ended) and he misplayed at least 1-2 balls that would have potentially saved the game for the Jays if a competent defender was out there. That wasn't due to an organizational weakness with defense, it was due to a manager not knowing how to manage (never mind Mayza facing Santana who kills LHP). They didn't need to deviate from what they were doing to the degree in which they did.

 

Focusing on defense in 2023 wasn't the best decision, but whatever, they did it. The biggest issue as mentioned was doing the exact same thing in 2024 when it took completely unsustainable pitcher health/performance to succeed with that approach in 2023.

[Brownie19]

The 2021 team had a 99-63 pythWL, and the 2022 team had the 3rd best record in the AL. They were doing just fine even with the lack of playoff success.

 

In game 2 of the Wild Card round, the Jays were up 8-1 and had to get a replacement in LF (I think Merrifield had to leave the game but my memory is fuzzy there). There was a guy on the bench whose only skill was playing defense (JBJ), but at that point, with a 7 run lead just put your best defender in the game and hold it. Instead, they put Tapia into the game (someone who they non tendered like 5 minutes after the season ended) and he misplayed at least 1-2 balls that would have potentially saved the game for the Jays if a competent defender was out there. That wasn't due to an organizational weakness with defense, it was due to a manager not knowing how to manage (never mind Mayza facing Santana who kills LHP). They didn't need to deviate from what they were doing to the degree in which they did.

 

Focusing on defense in 2023 wasn't the best decision, but whatever, they did it. The biggest issue as mentioned was doing the exact same thing in 2024 when it took completely unsustainable pitcher health/performance to succeed with that approach in 2023.

 

There's probably some truth in all of that (some truly bizarre decisions), although there were some obvious defensive concerns with the LGJ/Springer/Teo OF defensively, especially as they aged. Several fans were quite sick of Teo's effort and ability defensively and moving LGJ and Teo before they became FA's should also have been viewed as a way to sustainable success. I still think if you told fans they were going to go from 2nd offensively and 15th defensively to 5th-7th offensively and Top 5-10 defensively that most would have been on board with that. Despite several unexpected down years, they did almost produce that last year....but the actual runs lagged way behind the wRC+ a ton, which meant we needed that unsustainable pitching health to succeed in 2023. Again, I suspect they felt that with some predicable improvements from core players, they'd be in much better shape. It didn't materialize AT ALL and now we're all miserable and Atkins will be fired.

[Eat My Shatkins]

It's not like they made a monumental shift to defense from 2022 to 2023.

 

 

They traded Teo and Gurriel. That's it

 

The problem is Springer went from 130 wRC+ to 100 wRC+, Kirk the same, Jansen 140 wRC+ to 115, Vlad from 135 to 115, and Varsho came over after 107 wRC with the Dbacks to 85 last year with the Jays.

 

That's a crap ton of bats that fell off and the FO expected (or hoped for) some of them to bounce back this year and they didn't. In fact most of them got worse and even Bo joined them.

[Brownie19]

It's not like they made a monumental shift to defense from 2022 to 2023.

 

 

They traded Teo and Gurriel. That's it

 

The problem is Springer went from 130 wRC+ to 100 wRC+, Kirk the same, Jansen 140 wRC+ to 115, Vlad from 135 to 115, and Varsho came over after 107 wRC with the Dbacks to 85 last year with the Jays.

 

That's a crap ton of bats that fell off and the FO expected (or hoped for) some of them to bounce back this year and they didn't. In fact most of them got worse and even Bo joined them.

 

Essentially - yes. I suspect they felt that Varsho would replace LGJ's offensive, while providing a massive upgrade defensively. The only real move from offense to defense was supposed to be Teo to KK (likely with some hope that moving Springer from CF would keep him healthier). Of course in a bubble, KK was better than Teo in 2023 and wasn't much of a downgrade offensively (albeit things may have been much different if Teo was still in TO). I doubt many people would have looked at the 2022 team and said if you replace Teo with KK, that the offense would go from amazing to "stab yourself in the eye with a fork" awful. This year they bet on the core rebounding, but it isn't going to happen. Even the 1 super consistent offensive performer, Bo, decided to tank his career this year. It's been a lot of fun.

 

Again, I get the logic. The execution sucks goats for whatever reason.

[Eat My Shatkins]

It was sound logic

It made sense on paper

It has blown up in their faces spectacularly