The Ship is Sinking

[Masterbather]

I'm still team not panicking at this point. If the team doesn't put together a decent run against this weaker opposition then the death certificate that most of the fanbase wants to sign may actually be warranted.

 

It's not just a matter of bringing up the record and getting back into the mix with the glut of teams that will be competing for the wild card. It's a matter of honestly assessing whether this team has the horses to actually make the playoffs over these other teams and realistically win a world series.

 

There's an opportunity cost, especially for a team that is as thin in the minor leagues as we are, to passing on the chance to sell at the deadline. We are foregoing assets that we would need to build the next core of what is hopefully a contender. Is this core worth that sacrifice?

 

I don't think it is, I think there's too much rot in this core. I think we need to move on.

[jaysblue]

I'm still team not panicking at this point. If the team doesn't put together a decent run against this weaker opposition then the death certificate that most of the fanbase wants to sign may actually be warranted.

 

Nobody wants to sign it, but you need to stop taking the blue pill when it comes to this organization. You're living in an illusion if you think this team is built for success to go on a deep Postseason run or that this is one of the best front offices in baseball, when there are obviously many red flags currently with this core as pointed out by many of the prominent posters on this board.

[Olerud363]

If I could get a head count on team not panicking that would be great. Is it just Randy and Jim Lahey left?

 

The chances that team 'not panicking' look correct at the end are pretty good.

 

It's a 7 team race. Say there is a 1/7 chance the Jays do it. Not good for team 'not panicking'.

 

However there is probably a great chance the Jays win 83, the 3rd wild card is a dud with 85, and the Jays look like they are in it until the last weekend. Like if everyone is tied with 82 wins last Thursday of the season, team not panicking can gloat and say 'no matter what boys we did, we made it a season'.

 

Odds of making WC3? 15% or so? Odds of looking like they put up a fight? 50% at least I would guess.

[Olerud363]

The chances that team 'not panicking' look correct at the end are pretty good.

 

It's a 7 team race. Say there is a 1/7 chance the Jays do it. Not good for team 'not panicking'.

 

However there is probably a great chance the Jays win 83, the 3rd wild card is a dud with 85, and the Jays look like they are in it until the last weekend. Like if everyone is tied with 82 wins last Thursday of the season, team not panicking can gloat and say 'no matter what boys we did, we made it a season'.

 

Odds of making WC3? 15% or so? Odds of looking like they put up a fight? 50% at least I would guess.

 

The flaw in team not panicking is that say the Jays playoff odds stay at 1/7 (because they are in a 7 team race) the whole season. TNP will keep looking batter and better even though nothing has changed odds wise.

 

On the last Thursday of the season, when 7 teams are tied for WC3 with 82 wins, Jays are in the same s***** situation they are in now (1/7 chance), but it looks a lot better, like they are fighters. When in reality they still have only a small chance of making playoffs because of April/May slump. So if they just miss losing 2/3 last weekend of the season it will seem better, but playoff chances were still ruined in May, and the May negative Nancies were right.

[Spanky__99]

Nobody wants to sign it, but you need to stop taking the blue pill when it comes to this organization. You're living in an illusion if you think this team is built for success to go on a deep Postseason run or that this is one of the best front offices in baseball, when there are obviously many red flags currently with this core as pointed out by many of the prominent posters on this board.

 

This ain't the Matrix, meat. Just saying.

[BigCecil]

The chances that team 'not panicking' look correct at the end are pretty good.

 

It's a 7 team race. Say there is a 1/7 chance the Jays do it. Not good for team 'not panicking'.

 

However there is probably a great chance the Jays win 83, the 3rd wild card is a dud with 85, and the Jays look like they are in it until the last weekend. Like if everyone is tied with 82 wins last Thursday of the season, team not panicking can gloat and say 'no matter what boys we did, we made it a season'.

 

Odds of making WC3? 15% or so? Odds of looking like they put up a fight? 50% at least I would guess.

 

"The Far Side" by Olerud363. Chances ain't great. We have to let it play out. Remember...that one time....at band camp...when LAA went all in at the deadline Leone, Giolito and Lopez - because they had a puncher's chance. They held on to FA to be Ohtani too long - and when they all departed nothing was left but the husk of Trout, and the smoldering ruin called the LAA.

 

My 2 wishes are we let this play out awhile this season 80 gms and see where we are then, and that Atkins is punted before the deadline so we have clinical unbiased eyes making these next critical big business recommendations for our franchise. Not someone half pregnant and trying to save their own skin.

[L54]

The chances that team 'not panicking' look correct at the end are pretty good.

 

It's a 7 team race. Say there is a 1/7 chance the Jays do it. Not good for team 'not panicking'.

 

However there is probably a great chance the Jays win 83, the 3rd wild card is a dud with 85, and the Jays look like they are in it until the last weekend. Like if everyone is tied with 82 wins last Thursday of the season, team not panicking can gloat and say 'no matter what boys we did, we made it a season'.

 

Odds of making WC3? 15% or so? Odds of looking like they put up a fight? 50% at least I would guess.

 

It essentially comes down to what is it that TNP is not panicking about?

 

Is it making the playoffs? Okay sure, there is like a 15% chance. Not great but it’s baseball and almost anything can happen

 

Is it the direction of the franchise and the bones of the structure? TNP seems only focused on making a playoff push to save face and say see I told you so at the expense of the future. Masterbather is right, the opportunity cost looms large

 

I wonder where the line in the sand is when it comes to selling at the deadline for them?

[L54]

"The Far Side" by Olerud363. Chances ain't great. We have to let it play out. Remember...that one time....at band camp...when LAA went all in at the deadline Leone, Giolito and Lopez - because they had a puncher's chance. They held on to FA to be Ohtani too long - and when they all departed nothing was left but the husk of Trout, and the smoldering ruin called the LAA.

 

My 2 wishes are we let this play out awhile this season 80 gms and see where we are then, and that Atkins is punted before the deadline so we have clinical unbiased eyes making these next critical big business recommendations for our franchise. Not someone half pregnant and trying to save their own skin.

 

Pretty much have to. Nobody is paying top dollar yet with such a cluster of teams around the wild card in both leagues

[keggy]

'

[h=1]“You either die a hero or you live long enough to see yourself become the villain.”[/h]

 

AA is the guy who got dumped because at the time the GF thought she could do better. AA deleted social media, started lifting, and moved to a new city and now he's nailing models on a regular basis. Meanwhile the GF is middle aged and blown out and tells all her blind dates in her hometown Applebees what an ******* her ex was even though it's been more 9 years. AA is reminded of her once every few years, but she still talks about him all the time.

[gruber92]

We're not winning a f***ing thing until Ross is sent packing. It's that simple.

[L54]

AA is the guy who got dumped because at the time the GF thought she could do better. AA deleted social media, started lifting, and moved to a new city and now he's nailing models on a regular basis. Meanwhile the GF is middle aged and blown out and tells all her blind dates in her hometown Applebees what an ******* her ex was even though it's been more 9 years. AA is reminded of her once every few years, but she still talks about him all the time.

 

Well done

[Brownie19]

We're not winning a f***ing thing until Ross is sent packing. It's that simple.

 

We've won 2 WS in like 45 years. We're probably not winning a f***ing thing under the next 3 GMs we hire and subsequently fire.

[mphenhef]

If I could get a head count on team not panicking that would be great. Is it just Randy and Jim Lahey left?

 

I would call myself team worried, but not panicking

[Spanky__99]

We've won 2 WS in like 45 years. We're probably not winning a f***ing thing under the next 3 GMs we hire and subsequently fire.

 

lol... touch some grass mate. Preferably in Florida.

[Spanky__99]

I would call myself team worried, but not panicking

 

Yup.

[Terminator]

It essentially comes down to what is it that TNP is not panicking about?

 

Is it making the playoffs? Okay sure, there is like a 15% chance. Not great but it’s baseball and almost anything can happen

 

Is it the direction of the franchise and the bones of the structure? TNP seems only focused on making a playoff push to save face and say see I told you so at the expense of the future. Masterbather is right, the opportunity cost looms large

 

I wonder where the line in the sand is when it comes to selling at the deadline for them?

 

We’ve rebranded to Team It’s Not Over Yet

[Olerud363]

We’ve rebranded to Team It’s Not Over Yet

 

This team should only be proven right if Jays win a playoff game. If they don't team 'it's over, start over' is proven right.

 

Lots of things could happen. Jays could win 90 but the WC3 race heats up and Seattle wins out or something... Jays could sneak into WC3 with 83 wins and get beat by Cleveland 5-0 in a 2 game series. Of 11-9 blowing another lead.

 

If any of those happen team 'It's over' was right.

 

So Jays have to win a playofff game. Bo/Vlad finally get a playoff win. Even if they lose a 3 game series just the thrill of getting ready for an elimination game on an October thursday will be great. 1 playoff win is needed for Team It's Not over to be proven right.

[Olerud363]

If Shaprio/Atkins/Bo/Vlad end up with 0 playoff wins then the entire thing is a colossal failure and they all need to go live in a van down by the river.

 

If they win a single game. 1 playoff win, then I will look back fondly on this era and the genius management that made it all happen.

[Eat My Shatkins]

Vlad and Bo are both trending up, Manoah has looked good, you gotta think Gausman is gonna shove at some point and the bullpen might be healthy soon. They've finally punted Springer from the lead off spot, Jansen playing more, Schneider playing more...

 

I am indeed fully on team it's not over yet. It'd be nice to see a 10-5 or 20-10 stretch to get back into the WC3 driver seat.

[Spanky__99]

We’ve rebranded to Team It’s Not Over Yet

 

lol... yes sir.

[Laika]

The complete TNP bull thesis looks like this:

 

- the core physical talents will shine through despite the poor record and run differential and this team therefore has a much better playoff chance than the websites say. also, a better chance to actually do something in the playoffs.

- lots of money is coming off the books after 2025 and this is a top 10 payroll organization so with shrewd spending there is no reason they can't just remain competitive indefinitely

- the problems on the farm are overstated and there may be enough talent in AAA alone to at least form part of the next core.

- Ross's track record of quality MLB-level moves will help along the way.

[max silver]

Nobody wants to sign it, but you need to stop taking the blue pill when it comes to this organization. You're living in an illusion if you think this team is built for success to go on a deep Postseason run or that this is one of the best front offices in baseball, when there are obviously many red flags currently with this core as pointed out by many of the prominent posters on this board.

 

We simply don't know what this team's ceiling is yet. The way some of the board posters are carrying on is downright embarrassing. There is literally no conceivable way the offense and pitching staff are as bad over a full season of play as they have respectively been over the first 7 weeks of the season based on the talent that's on the roster. I'm not fooling myself into thinking this team as currently constructed is some sort of surefire world series contender or ignoring the deficiencies, but at the same time there is a ton of season left and the team is basically a hot week away from being within reach of a wild card position. Every single season sees a team flounder for most of the regular season, getting hot at the right time heading into the playoffs and making serious noise in the playoffs. This could still be one of these teams, but if they continue to struggle towards the deadline it will be time to consider at least shipping off some of the expiring contracts and reassessing in the offseason what direction to go. To suggest that the entire organization should be blown up because of a slow start to a season is total folly and just reeks of panic.

 

Nobody here is saying that this front office is one of the best so take your weak strawmen arguments elsewhere. It's easy to see that the biggest factor that's turned the goal of sustainable contention into a potential window team is the lack of elite pieces from the minor league system to use to add to the 26 man roster, whether that's in the form of trade or calling these players up directly.

[max silver]

Nobody wants to sign it. You’re speaking in hyperbole

 

Half the board wants the entire organization razed to the ground so there's no hyperbole in my statements whatsoever.

[Spanky__99]

Half the board wants the entire organization razed to the ground so there's no hyperbole in my statements whatsoever.

 

Ding, ding, ding!!!

[BigCecil]

Half the board wants the entire organization razed to the ground so there's no hyperbole in my statements whatsoever.

 

Replacing Atkins after 9 years to get new minds, that don't have a dog in previous fights, to make recommendations on major decisions affecting our team that are in our windshield, is not razing to the ground. For the first time, I thought he needed to go this past off season. The 48 games since and his presser last week only reinforce my view.

 

And while they are at it, maybe new leadership can help improve on our last 9 years of drafting & development work. Its not a high bar.

[Spanky__99]

Replacing Atkins after 9 years to get new minds, that don't have a dog in previous fights, to make recommendations on major decisions affecting our team that are in our windshield, is not razing to the ground. For the first time, I thought he needed to go this past off season. The 48 games since and his presser last week only reinforce my view.

 

And while they are at it, maybe new leadership can help improve on our last 9 years of drafting & development work. Its not a high bar.

 

That's not his point, dude?

[max silver]

Replacing Atkins after 9 years to get new minds, that don't have a dog in previous fights, to make recommendations on major decisions affecting our team that are in our windshield, is not razing to the ground. For the first time, I thought he needed to go this past off season. The 48 games since and his presser last week only reinforce my view.

 

And while they are at it, maybe new leadership can help improve on our last 9 years of drafting & development work. Its not a high bar.

 

I have no issues whatsoever with suggestions like these. If the team is actually as bad as it's early play indicates the organization as a whole would be completely burying their head in the sand. I think Atkins has been a solid GM and deserves a shot to at least run out the rest of this season as he's built a generally solid team in his tenure. There has always been some sort of easily identifiable achilles heel during his time at the top that's held the team back in every season and the team has generally been less than the sum of the parts as well so new leadership could very well be warranted. If this team misses the playoffs I see very little chance Atkins is kept around as that would likely place Shapiro directly into the crosshairs as well.

[Spanky__99]

Ross' ass on the line, no doubt.

[BigCecil]

That's not his point, dude?

 

LOL. Well he writes essays like me sometimes so its hard to tell. I usually agree with Max and you ultimately, even though I'm much more glass half empty. Just my nature.

[BigCecil]

I have no issues whatsoever with suggestions like these. If the team is actually as bad as it's early play indicates the organization as a whole would be completely burying their head in the sand. I think Atkins has been a solid GM and deserves a shot to at least run out the rest of this season as he's built a generally solid team in his tenure. There has always been some sort of easily identifiable achilles heel during his time at the top that's held the team back in every season and the team has generally been less than the sum of the parts as well so new leadership could very well be warranted. If this team misses the playoffs I see very little chance Atkins is kept around as that would likely place Shapiro directly into the crosshairs as well.

 

I think first 81 gms is fine and if its clear we are for real, go Jays. That won't improve his past D & D record though.

 

This deadline is absolutely critical as some of our assets only diminish on an aggressive curve past that (think when we got Berrios or when Soto was first dealt). He is not the right leader for that. I don't want to 2023 LAA deadline it. Its nothing personal - just business.