The Ship is Sinking

[Dick_Pole]

This post is a complete indictment of the Blue Jays front office and their strategy for the past nine years. Surprised at some of the people giving it a like actually.

 

Does anyone here even truly like this front office or what they have accomplished to date? It's a spectrum. People who are on the "wait and see" or "they did an okay, but not great job" end are going to look like supporters relative to the ones who have the pitchforks out.

 

Even people who seem like they are sucking up aren't really doing so imo. Let's take Spanky for example. He's probably one of the biggest homers who frequently posts on here. He says consistently and overly positive things about the team because that's how he wants to show support and keep his spirits up about its chances of winning. Not because he thinks Atkins has done a bang up job. At least that's my interpretation of his and other people's homerism. There seems to be a contingent of people who take offense to that. Who is anyone to say how someone else wants to enjoy watching baseball? It's not like "supporters" of Atkins are in a position of power to keep him there. If someone's lack of apparent hatred of this front office is so grating to someone else, that second person should take some time off from this board.

[Jays333]

What is it like 8th highest payroll and a bottom 5 farm system with a below .500 record almost 40 games in. This is a scary downward trajectory.

[Eat My Shatkins]

What is it like 8th highest payroll and a bottom 5 farm system with a below .500 record almost 40 games in. This is a scary downward trajectory.

 

Thankfully the high pay roll isn't locked in for long and they have the ability to do a quick reset to somewhat replenish the farm if this doesn't get turned around and they so choose.

[Carlos Danger]

Thankfully the high pay roll isn't locked in for long and they have the ability to do a quick reset to somewhat replenish the farm if this doesn't get turned around and they so choose.

 

First step to solving a problem, is admitting you have a problem. We have had the same problem since June of 2023. We failed to address it at the trade deadline. We failed to address it in the off season. We have failed to address it 40 games into the 2024 season. This all in the context of a division and league where our direct competition has raised the bar and will be getting reinforcements as the season goes on.

 

The FO is behind the curve and failed to recognize the competitive realties going on around us in the WC3 calculation.

Edited May 11, 2024 by Carlos Danger

[Eat My Shatkins]

First step to solving a problem, is admitting you have a problem. We have had the same problem since June of 2023. We failed to address it at the trade deadline. We failed to address it in the off season. We have failed to address it 40 games into the 2024 season. The in the context of a division and league where our direct competition has raised the bar and will be getting reinforcements as the season goes on.

 

The FO is behind the curve and failed to recognize the competitive realties going on around us in the WC3 calculation.

 

The problem with this team is the core players are not as good as they should be.

 

Vlad and Kirk both took huge steps back, and now Bo is doing it, plus Springer aged about 10 years in one f***ing off season.

 

Manoah is another issue, but our starting pitching can survive without him, the bats cannot survive with Vlad, Kirk, Bo and Springer all useless garbage hitters.

 

I fear this can is going to get kicked down the road for one more year, because Bo and Vlad are next to worthless in a trade playing the way they are playing right now and Springer is nothing more than a sunk cost at this point. As for Kirk....well someone has to catch and he's the only MLB catcher we have under control past this season right now.

[BCZ]

Burn it to the ground

[Krylian]

Burn it to the ground

 

In 3 years we'll say they should've burned it down after 2023 but they waited 2 seasons too long, like back after 2016.

[connorp]

Re: #6 - I do know that Clement loves to party and f*** chicks. Whatever that's worth. Seems to be working for him. Maybe they need more Wade Boggs plane trips and less booster juice.

 

I didn’t know this. Always bet the over on those guys.

 

Edit: well, if they keep it within the limits I guess.

[BigCecil]

When you aggregate the war we hit on for a dollar cost basis, I think it's actually pretty good BUT most likely would pale in comparison to the value you get on hitting draft picks and developing 35+s into big leaguers.

 

100%. I think a majority of posters would agree that drafting and development have been the primary area Shatkins have struggled to deliver. Thats our Achilles heel. Its obvious. Our 2nd biggest issue is our core offensive players aren't what we thought they were and/or are under performing. Vlad has been in slow decline production wise since 2021.

 

For '24 the FO made a strategic decision to invest in pitching and D in IFK/KK/Green. For offense JT & Vogelbach.

 

FO spent $43M ARO on this ^ combination of talent.

 

Its fair to speculate closing deal(s) for more offensive power might have been a better strategic bet. I'm not as forgiving as some when it comes to business for "being in on" guys or trying. You close a deal or you don't. If you didn't close because you felt it didn't make sense financially thats totally fine, but be accountable for the choices and the outcome consequences good or bad. (This thinking usually prompts posts replies about slow wRC+ starts for some of our reported targets to support weak "see, they wouldnt have helped us anyway arguments" - Soler etc - and if they are off to good starts we had 100% had no chance at them - Teo, Tyler O'Neil etc etc). These are arguments of convenience in the moment.

 

JT, IFK and KK when healthy have been pretty effective. IKF more than thought he would be so far. His D has been excellent.

 

Its a long season. JT started hot and is trending down. No surprise. With a larger sample size on this season it will all be easier to evaluate. In any case, big decisions coming this deadline or before.

Edited May 11, 2024 by BigCecil

[bluejaysinternNo5]

The ship has sunk

[L54]

Mayday mayday

[connorp]

Burn it

[Jays24]

I think the Jays need a couple of more defensive first players... our defense hasn't been good enough to hold teams to 0 runs. I'm sure Atkins is working the phones to get Goins out of retirement lol.

[Dick_Pole]

So which GM will have the more pathetic list of homegrown (drafted and developed) talent under their watch? Ricciardi with Adam Lind, Aaron Hill, Shaun Marcum and Ricky Romero or Atkins with Kirk, Manoah, Schneider, Pearson and whatever other jobber might come from the Jays mediocre system in the next year or two?

[connorp]

I think the Jays need a couple of more defensive first players... our defense hasn't been good enough to hold teams to 0 runs. I'm sure Atkins is working the phones to get Goins out of retirement lol.

 

Yep, they need to take advantage of the market inefficiency that just this team and its fans here know about. Triple down.

Meanwhile, I won’t name the poster, but supposedly the NYY who were hopeless long term and desperate for at Volpe to be good, are doing just fine. Who knew?

 

I hate and will always hate the NYY, but never count them out.

[Key22]

If they do decide to sell - do you trust that Atkins is the right man for the job?

 

The reality is I don't think Shapiro will fire him as they have worked for years in Cleveland and now for years here - they're probably best buddies. Shapiro isn't going anywhere - the brass likes what he has done with the facilities. So I think the only way Atkins goes is if Shapiro also goes.

 

But if I am wrong and Shapiro does fire Atkins - who do they hire - presumably you would want someone like Kim Ng - someone from outside the organization so they have a free hand to revamp the entire organization. An outsider GM can fire the entire coaching staff (except Pete Walker who seems immune). She could also trade pretty much anyone/everyone.

 

The reality is this team was never going to beat anyone good in the playoffs - at best they're a "barely make the wild card" sort of club - as they were last year.

 

I wish there was draft pick trading in MLB - it would make it more interesting.

[Jays24]

Thought I'd add this tidbit in here too.

 

How bad is the Blue Jays offense? The Blue Jays currently have a slugging % of .289 with RISP. If they keep this up, that'll be the 7th worst in the history of baseball, and the worst in 56 years.

 

- From Reddit

[Stangstag]

If they do decide to sell - do you trust that Atkins is the right man for the job?

 

The reality is I don't think Shapiro will fire him as they have worked for years in Cleveland and now for years here - they're probably best buddies. Shapiro isn't going anywhere - the brass likes what he has done with the facilities. So I think the only way Atkins goes is if Shapiro also goes.

 

But if I am wrong and Shapiro does fire Atkins - who do they hire - presumably you would want someone like Kim Ng - someone from outside the organization so they have a free hand to revamp the entire organization. An outsider GM can fire the entire coaching staff (except Pete Walker who seems immune). She could also trade pretty much anyone/everyone.

 

The reality is this team was never going to beat anyone good in the playoffs - at best they're a "barely make the wild card" sort of club - as they were last year.

 

I wish there was draft pick trading in MLB - it would make it more interesting.

 

I’d happily punt Atkins in favor of giving someone like Ng a shot, like TODAY.

[Key22]

I’d happily punt Atkins in favor of giving someone like Ng a shot, like TODAY.

 

I know large chunks of the league have a lot of respect for her ability - and Miami is a tough gig.

 

I think the issue always is - who do you hire - if it is anyone with experience chances are they were booted out of their prior organization and usually the fans were irate that it took so long to get fired. So experienced GM mostly always means they were canned.

 

If you hire someone from within the organization - it's probably going to be more of the same.

 

The only reason I mention Ng is because she left over the situation she was in - she already turned down the Red Sox I believe - so it seems like she wants to be in charge and not have to answer to a bunch of dumbasses.

 

Thus, Ng in Toronto - she'd probably have to be President and GM.

 

Women always do the work of two for half the salary - We're saving Rogers money already

[L54]

I’m not going to pretend like I know who would be available for hire or make a good replacement for Atkins but it should be a desirable job

 

Large market

Top 10 payroll ability

Brand new High Performance site and revamped stadium

[Terminator]

You guys want Kim Ng to be the GM? The woman that ran the Marlins? Lmaooooo

[Olerud363]

I didn’t know this. Always bet the over on those guys.

 

Edit: well, if they keep it within the limits I guess.

 

You gotta wonder if it's coincidence that Clement made 2 errors in a Sunday day game if the rumors of his partying are true....

[Olerud363]

I know large chunks of the league have a lot of respect for her ability - and Miami is a tough gig.

 

I think the issue always is - who do you hire - if it is anyone with experience chances are they were booted out of their prior organization and usually the fans were irate that it took so long to get fired. So experienced GM mostly always means they were canned.

 

If you hire someone from within the organization - it's probably going to be more of the same.

 

The only reason I mention Ng is because she left over the situation she was in - she already turned down the Red Sox I believe - so it seems like she wants to be in charge and not have to answer to a bunch of dumbasses.

 

Thus, Ng in Toronto - she'd probably have to be President and GM.

 

Women always do the work of two for half the salary - We're saving Rogers money already

 

Very simple list of qualifications.

 

1. Progressive thinking and understand game theory. This means they are willing to eat up whatever is public knowledge but also understand that what is not public knowledge is the most important.

 

2. Willing to dive into problems at multiple scales. High scale important. Kirk fat. Kirk weak. Kirk hit .200 with 1 homerun. Kirk used to be good. Kirk now bad. We all know this, but sometimes it is useful for the GM to acknowledge this, and make sure resources are allocated into finding out why did this bad thing happen to Kirk. Then you get to the finer scale of Kirks genetic and mental makeup, biochemistry, batting mechanics, psychology... but need the high scale to first acknowledge the problems, look for simple solutions, then low scale.

 

3. Acknowledge the great front offices that are doing good - need to suck Baltimore dick with modesty and respect. Tell the fans the truth. Baltimore is shaping to have a generational-dynasty, LA and NY Yankees have a generational dynasty with no apparent end. To compete drastic steps may need to be taken. All resources feasible will be allocated to understanding the processes that have led to these generational dynasty with the hope that in a few years the Blue Jays can at least modestly compete with them.

 

4. Care. You may have to look into a Canadian. Need someone who cares as much as this message board does. Will stay up all night, every night, while a Nanny takes care of his children while his wife isn't (she's sleeping around). But the GM of the Blue Jays doesn't care of this. MUST FIND OUT WHY VLAD SUCKS. MUST MAKE SURE JACE BOHOFREN doesn't become MR. "NO POWER BRO". Must solve these problems. Must defeat failure. Must develop pitching prospects. Do not care about wife and what she is up to, or kids (that is Nanny's job).

 

5. Good at bullshitting and acting normal - Needs to care as much or more than the maniacs and disunctional weirdos on this board, but can't act like it in public and with other GMs. Even though wife is having affairs needs to act like it is all great, and he is well adjusted, and knows how to schmooze, and send "trust signals", and negotiate, and convince others he/she is an alpha...

[glory]

If they do decide to sell - do you trust that Atkins is the right man for the job?

 

These are the names of the prospects Atkins acquired during his selling in 2017-19: Teoscar Hernandez, Samad Taylor, Thomas Pannone, Santiago Espinal, Forrest Wall, Chad Spanberger, Bryan Baker, Billy McKinney, David Paulino, Hector Perez, Jacob Waguespack, Corey Copping, Julian Merryweather, Demi Orimoloye, Trent Thornton, Ronny Brito, Andrew Sopko, Juan De Paula, Edisson Gonzalez, Curtis Taylor, Simeon Woods Richardson, Anthony Kay, Thomas Hatch, Kyle Johnston, Derek Fisher.

 

Other than Teoscar and a season and a half of Espinal, that's a depressing list. Couldn't even turn any of those arms into useful relievers. The closest thing he's done to selling since then is trading Teo to the Mariners, and we will see if Macko turns into anything.

 

So to answer the question, no, Atkins is not the right man for the job.

[MikeM3]

These are the names of the prospects Atkins acquired during his selling in 2017-19: Teoscar Hernandez, Samad Taylor, Thomas Pannone, Santiago Espinal, Forrest Wall, Chad Spanberger, Bryan Baker, Billy McKinney, David Paulino, Hector Perez, Jacob Waguespack, Corey Copping, Julian Merryweather, Demi Orimoloye, Trent Thornton, Ronny Brito, Andrew Sopko, Juan De Paula, Edisson Gonzalez, Curtis Taylor, Simeon Woods Richardson, Anthony Kay, Thomas Hatch, Kyle Johnston, Derek Fisher.

 

Other than Teoscar and a season and a half of Espinal, that's a depressing list. Couldn't even turn any of those arms into useful relievers. The closest thing he's done to selling since then is trading Teo to the Mariners, and we will see if Macko turns into anything.

 

So to answer the question, no, Atkins is not the right man for the job.

 

Lol what an amazing list

[Laika]

These are the names of the prospects Atkins acquired during his selling in 2017-19: Teoscar Hernandez, Samad Taylor, Thomas Pannone, Santiago Espinal, Forrest Wall, Chad Spanberger, Bryan Baker, Billy McKinney, David Paulino, Hector Perez, Jacob Waguespack, Corey Copping, Julian Merryweather, Demi Orimoloye, Trent Thornton, Ronny Brito, Andrew Sopko, Juan De Paula, Edisson Gonzalez, Curtis Taylor, Simeon Woods Richardson, Anthony Kay, Thomas Hatch, Kyle Johnston, Derek Fisher.

 

Other than Teoscar and a season and a half of Espinal, that's a depressing list. Couldn't even turn any of those arms into useful relievers. The closest thing he's done to selling since then is trading Teo to the Mariners, and we will see if Macko turns into anything.

 

So to answer the question, no, Atkins is not the right man for the job.

 

oh my god

[BigCecil]

Been reflecting on status of our team and looking back on lots of 2016-17 media interviews with Shapiro, talking about investment in development and perpetual waves of impact talent coming up from the Minors. It all sounds awesome. His thesis that you don’t need to be a “window” team because we will build a sustainable competitive team is tantalizing. What actually happened?

 

I remember not really liking him chucking AA under the bus at the time, but I was excited that we were going to have a cutting edge kick ass sustainable winner based on these waves. I had hoped that he was going to renovate the team, and not just the stadium. It’s a popular myth on this board that Shapiro is not involved in baseball operations. I know for certain that is inaccurate. Anyone who has worked at higher levels in in a big pubco knows that any GM has very rigid approval thresholds on decisions that impact asset valuations and capex. There are good reasons for this reality that should be obvious. The buck stops with the guy who is accountable for the valuations, forecast and budget he sold the Board. He has to review, give input and approve all material decisions.

 

This team has become the exact inverse of what Shapiro promoted. The Emperor has no clothes. It’s an old, very expensive team jacked up on Free Agents predominantly. They won 92,91,89 games 21-23. They benefitted from expanded wildcard. Pretty dam solid, but it’s a sustainability mirage without more drafting & development success. The 9 year sample size objectively is not good. A lot of their top picks and prospects were traded to create the past and current roster construction.

 

The point being I don’t know why we would trust them to do another reboot/rebuild and handle the end of this era, which is now right in our windshield. We all know only 26% of ’24 is complete, and we can all look at fangraphs playoff odds. Obviously they could get on a roll, but its bad bet. At a minimum Ross needs to go. Sooner the better to prep for deadline.

 

Shapiro has acknowledged that while the 2017 season was a disappointment, it was not unexpected, terming the club “fragile” because of the age of the 25-man roster, and a lack of upper level minor league talent. Shapiro has an eye of the future, stating that, “We’re trying to construct a development system that maximizes the potential of our players,” and he says that he’s encouraged by this year’s draft, the work of Assistant GM Andrew Tinnish (who heads up international scouting and player development), and by the development being done at the minor league level. “That building effort is a long-term play,” he added for good measure. Shapiro does not believe in taking short cuts when it comes to building a winner.

 

"We are close to getting a significant renovation that I think has a chance to be a game-changer on both resources and culture for our player development system…ultimately, it’s shifting Dunedin away from just being a spring training site, where we prepare our players for the season, to a 365 days of the year, state-of-the-art training and rehabilitation centre, and a base for our US operations." - October 2017

 

Mark Shapiro says his club’s farm system is better than it was two years ago, but still largely a work in progress. “Not where it needs to be,” Shapiro told MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand in a recent Q&A. “I think we’re really excited about what’s happening at [high Class A], at Dunedin, the Florida State League and below. Still concerned about Double-A and Triple-A, the depth of prospects there.”

 

Shapiro said he would rank Toronto’s farm “probably in the upper half, maybe closing in on the upper third” of all MLB organizations and highlighted the success of top prospects Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who both began the season in Lansing before advancing to Dunedin. “You don’t just need two guys, you need waves of guys,” said Shapiro. “And behind them, you need another wave of guys. I feel like that’s coming. It’s probably two to four years away that it’s going to get here, but when it comes, what we’ve continued to execute on whether it’s [assistant GM] Andrew Tinnish leading us in international, we’ve got waves of guys coming. “I’m encouraged by that.” August - 2017

[MikeM3]

Waves of guys

[Olerud363]

 

This team has become the exact inverse of what Shapiro promoted. The Emperor has no clothes. ItÂ’s an old, very expensive team jacked up on Free Agents predominantly. They won 92,91,89 games 21-23. They benefitted from expanded wildcard. Pretty dam solid, but itÂ’s a sustainability mirage without more drafting & development success. The 9 year sample size objectively is not good. A lot of their top picks and prospects were traded to create the past and current roster construction.

 

[/i][/b]

 

1. The only good thing is payroll is in decent shape, so if they could find someone willing to take the money, maybe that is good. On the other hand who wants to come to Toronto except the A- class free agents once LA and NY chooses who they want. (And if there are no A- free agents the offseason sucks like last year).

 

2. Nimalla. If you want waves you need some guys like that to do exciting things at 18 (still 3 years away even if doing exciting things in low A). The Nimalla dissapointment just f***ing is representative of this front offices in ability to get exciting talent. The next Paul Dejong is not exicting.

 

f*** Shaprio. And you 'no power bro' boys who hate Spencer, and Roden and maybe now Bohofren or whatever... demand that Shapiro resign tonight for not providing you dudes with the power you deserve.

[Laika]

Shapiro said he would rank Toronto’s farm “probably in the upper half, maybe closing in on the upper third” of all MLB organizations and highlighted the success of top prospects Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who both began the season in Lansing before advancing to Dunedin. “You don’t just need two guys, you need waves of guys,” said Shapiro. “And behind them, you need another wave of guys. I feel like that’s coming. It’s probably two to four years away that it’s going to get here, but when it comes, what we’ve continued to execute on whether it’s [assistant GM] Andrew Tinnish leading us in international, we’ve got waves of guys coming. “I’m encouraged by that.” August - 2017

[/i][/b]

 

It's really sad when you think about it. Year 5 of the Vlad/Bo era (or year 6 of the Danny Jansen era...) and there has been no second wave. More like a dripping tap.

 

Kirk - came one year after Vlad/Bo but is now closer to a bench player than a star

Pearson - useless

Manoah - closer to a AAA SP than a major leaguer

Schneider - they still have time to screw him up

Clement - they still have time to screw him up

 

There is almost nothing here.

Most of the young players they have tried to break in since 2020 have just flopped completely. Some arms like White, Francis, Pop. Some bats like Josh Palacios.

Some have flopped here and then done well elsewhere. Merryweather, Otto Lopez. Trent Thornton.

Some of the other youngsters that may have broken in have been traded away. Moreno, mainly.

 

Waves of suck.

 

The org can't scout or develop prospects. The only saving grace is that the payroll commitments all expire in short order. The only things they are good at are having money to spend and not spending it horribly at the MLB level. And I guess some level of MLB development when it comes to pitchers like Ray, Kikuchi, Matz, Stripling.