Around Baseball 2024

[John_Havok]

I think people are underestimating just how f***ing good Soto is. This is like signing a 26 year old Pujols, or even Frank Thomas. He's potentially one of the best hitters of all-time. He's plenty marketable and is worth a f***ton of money.

 

For reference, Pujols provided 51.7 WAR in his age 26-35 (10 year span) seasons.

 

I think you are overestimating how good he is. Pujols consistently put up >8 bwar seasons from age 23-25. Soto has a high water mark of 7.9 this year following two years of 5.5. He simply doesn't have the hit tool nor the power tool either Thomas or Pujols had (at least not consistently). You need to get major value in the early years to make Soto's later years not extremely painful (Let's be honest, this is likely a 13 year contract). I'm not sure that value exists at 600-700 million unless you get 2020-2021 Soto but that's the outlier right now.

 

Even at $10mil/WAR, Pujols 26-35 is only worth $517 million. I just can't how anyone justifies $700 million...Ohtani at least had the Japan marketing bonus (imagine how may sportsnetNow subs rogers would have sold). Yes, 1 WAR going from 8 to 9 is extremely more valuable than going from 1 to 2 but I'm not sure we ever see Soto at 9 plus WAR.

 

These are exactly the figures bumping around in my head. For Soto to be worth $700M on the field in free agency $/WAR figures, he might have to put up 80-90+ WAR over the term of the contract. He'd have to be 8+ WAR consistently and I'm not making that bet. We all know how great a player he is, but at some point those dollars are better spent elsewhere.

 

I also don't think there is some sort of magical unicorn dollars that Rogers will have for Soto that don't impact the rest of the Jays budget for 10+ years. I think what the owners are communicating is "go for it" if there is a very special player, a huge marketing opportunity, and a chance to put together a contender.

 

$700M for Ohtani, OK, but Soto? ehhh. That said, I'd be willing to run around the block naked if we sign him.

 

First - who the f*** uses bWAR? I can't even figure out how to find WAR totals on the BR site! Drives me nuts.

 

Second - Soto put up 9.2 WAR before Pujols even entered the league. Ages 21-25, Pujols put up 37.6 WAR, Soto put up 32.7 WAR (having extrapolated 2020 out to a full season). Soto's defensive metrics in 2022 drag him down a bit, but yes, Pujols' defense and baserunning early in his career are better than Soto's (Pujols was actually a great baserunner at the time).

 

As for $/WAR, it depends on what Soto is really going to sign for. Ohtani was really $460M when you remove the deferrals (we all need to stop suggesting it was $700M). I don't know where Soto lands and I expect there will be deferrals that make the # look higher, but it might be right around that $520M value that Pujols provided when you strip away deferrals. Finally - organizations only get a few opportunities to add a 26 year old generational hitter on their team.

 

This is the most sane and logical back and forth i've seen here in a long time.

 

Kudos.

[mphenhef]

First - who the f*** uses bWAR? I can't even figure out how to find WAR totals on the BR site! Drives me nuts.

 

Second - Soto put up 9.2 WAR before Pujols even entered the league. Ages 21-25, Pujols put up 37.6 WAR, Soto put up 32.7 WAR (having extrapolated 2020 out to a full season). Soto's defensive metrics in 2022 drag him down a bit, but yes, Pujols' defense and baserunning early in his career are better than Soto's (Pujols was actually a great baserunner at the time).

 

As for $/WAR, it depends on what Soto is really going to sign for. Ohtani was really $460M when you remove the deferrals (we all need to stop suggesting it was $700M). I don't know where Soto lands and I expect there will be deferrals that make the # look higher, but it might be right around that $520M value that Pujols provided when you strip away deferrals. Finally - organizations only get a few opportunities to add a 26 year old generational hitter on their team.

 

If it is with heavy money deferred than that is a different story but many in the industry are talking like he is getting 700-800 million without deferrals which is ludicrous to me.

 

For what it is worth, Fangraph's WAR also has Soto a step behind when looking at equivalent aged seasons. I avoided comparisons of 19, 20, 21 due to Pujols debuting at 21 and Soto having a short season for his age 21 season. Pujols arguably had an 80 grade hit tool and 65-70 power. Soto is arguably a 60-70 hit tool with less power. He does have an 80 grade eye mind you.

[Brownie19]

If it is with heavy money deferred than that is a different story but many in the industry are talking like he is getting 700-800 million without deferrals which is ludicrous to me.

 

For what it is worth, Fangraph's WAR also has Soto a step behind when looking at equivalent aged seasons. I avoided comparisons of 19, 20, 21 due to Pujols debuting at 21 and Soto having a short season for his age 21 season. Pujols arguably had an 80 grade hit tool and 65-70 power. Soto is arguably a 60-70 hit tool with less power. He does have an 80 grade eye mind you.

 

Yeah that's all fair and I'd agree that $700-$800M without deferrals would be an insane number to get to. Regardless, this is still a very rare opportunity to land a generational bat at age 26. It's crazy to think we might be the ones losing the same type of bat next offseason!

[Spanky__99]

Mason Miller should have AL ROY over Luis Gil.

 

Cowser was robbed.

[Key22]

The thing is the Jays have multiple holes to fill and as great as one hitter can be - it didn't help the Angels who had two hall-of-fame bats in the line-up or the Yankees - sure they made the WS but they would have been like the 7th best team in the NL.

 

The Mets can buy Soto and then add three more $200m contracts - the Jays probably won't (though they can and probably should) do that.

 

I am not really sure why the Jays say they are "going for it" because they have way too many holes to fill and they don't seem to be a team ready to outbid the field.

[Masterbather]

The thing is the Jays have multiple holes to fill and as great as one hitter can be - it didn't help the Angels who had two hall-of-fame bats in the line-up or the Yankees - sure they made the WS but they would have been like the 7th best team in the NL.

 

The Mets can buy Soto and then add three more $200m contracts - the Jays probably won't (though they can and probably should) do that.

 

I am not really sure why the Jays say they are "going for it" because they have way too many holes to fill and they don't seem to be a team ready to outbid the field.

 

Doesn't make sense to me either. They won't get Soto, which probably allows them to fill more holes as a result, but while I admire Rogers' willingness to spend, I think most people see this attempt to fix poor drafting and development with gobs of money as an act of desperation and I tend to agree.

 

Fixing a fundamentally flawed team with little internal talent through free agency makes for an intriguing offseason but it's not a prudent approach.

[Olerud363]

First - who the f*** uses bWAR? I can't even figure out how to find WAR totals on the BR site! Drives me nuts.

 

Second - Soto put up 9.2 WAR before Pujols even entered the league. Ages 21-25, Pujols put up 37.6 WAR, Soto put up 32.7 WAR (having extrapolated 2020 out to a full season). Soto's defensive metrics in 2022 drag him down a bit, but yes, Pujols' defense and baserunning early in his career are better than Soto's (Pujols was actually a great baserunner at the time).

 

As for $/WAR, it depends on what Soto is really going to sign for. Ohtani was really $460M when you remove the deferrals (we all need to stop suggesting it was $700M). I don't know where Soto lands and I expect there will be deferrals that make the # look higher, but it might be right around that $520M value that Pujols provided when you strip away deferrals. Finally - organizations only get a few opportunities to add a 26 year old generational hitter on their team.

 

Some of this is just sequencing of the good seasons. Soto/Thomas/Pujols have all hit .320 with massive power and great eye. All have hit .250 with 25 homers... Pujols and Thomas look great because their good seasons were sequenced consecutively.

 

Not saying this is all random, but maybe just a bit random.. We won't know for 15 years, but could turn out when looking back on it, Soto has just as many great seasons as Pujols and Thomas, and just as many lesser seasons, but just hit some lesser ones earlier....

[Olerud363]

Some of this is just sequencing of the good seasons. Soto/Thomas/Pujols have all hit .320 with massive power and great eye. All have hit .250 with 25 homers... Pujols and Thomas look great because their good seasons were sequenced consecutively.

 

Not saying this is all random, but maybe just a bit random.. We won't know for 15 years, but could turn out when looking back on it, Soto has just as many great seasons as Pujols and Thomas, and just as many lesser seasons, but just hit some lesser ones earlier....

 

 

Through age 25 Thomas's top 3 fWAR were 7.2, 7.1 and 6.3, and Soto's are 8.1, 6.8, and 6.0, with another potential 7-8 WAR season wiped out by Covid.

 

Frank Thomas's career wRC+ is 154 (including his 30s), Soto's is 158.

 

A lot of guys have their peaks 26 through 31. Would be interesting to add in Ramirez, Sheffield, Cabrera and others into a comparison group.

 

I think when normalized to league norms even Vlad compares well to Ramirez, Sheffield and Cabrera through age 25... because the league hit's .240 .300 .390 now that is hard to see....

 

Vlad's agents

 

a) Soto is the greatest of the greatest and better than Thomas at same age and projects better 25-33.

Vlad is right with Soto in almost all stats and has more raw power, hit tool, and more hard hit balls in play.

[Olerud363]

a) Soto is the greatest of the greatest and better than Thomas at same age and projects better 25-33.

Vlad is right with Soto in almost all stats and has more raw power, hit tool, and more hard hit balls in play.

 

Just also noticed that Vlad beat Yordan Alvarez by a few places in MVP voting even though they were equal this year.

 

Life time Yordan I think has the highest wRC+ of any active player even higher than Aaron Judge.

 

Yordan is very under-rated, Vladdy very over-rated (despite good 2021 and 24)

 

Yordan misses 30 games a year so no 40 homer and only 1 100 rbi season, Vlad plays every single game and gets better counting stats... It's just unfortunate but I feel no matter what level he plays at Vlad will always be over-rated in a sense, even his good seasons, 160 games great triple crown stats will be over-rated in the industry (like 5.5 WAR seasons, that are viewed better than that).

 

Seems like won't be a long term Jay because the organization is going to be too logical about a good but over-rated player as compared to his agents.

[Stangstag]

Just also noticed that Vlad beat Yordan Alvarez by a few places in MVP voting even though they were equal this year.

 

Life time Yordan I think has the highest wRC+ of any active player even higher than Aaron Judge.

 

Yordan is very under-rated, Vladdy very over-rated (despite good 2021 and 24)

 

Yordan misses 30 games a year so no 40 homer and only 1 100 rbi season, Vlad plays every single game and gets better counting stats... It's just unfortunate but I feel no matter what level he plays at Vlad will always be over-rated in a sense, even his good seasons, 160 games great triple crown stats will be over-rated in the industry (like 5.5 WAR seasons, that are viewed better than that).

 

Seems like won't be a long term Jay because the organization is going to be too logical about a good but over-rated player as compared to his agents.

 

I think it'll happen. It will just be more like an Aaron Judge scenario where the Jays match/exceed the highest bid in free agency. Rogers needs a face of franchise and wont allow Vlad to be poached. The casuals love him.

[Terminator]

I think it'll happen. It will just be more like an Aaron Judge scenario where the Jays match/exceed the highest bid in free agency. Rogers needs a face of franchise and wont allow Vlad to be poached. The casuals love him.

 

I agree, I think he remains a Jay. But I think he signs an extension right before some sort of self-imposed spring training deadline.

 

If he heads to FA I'm not sure how that will play out. The Yankees have a certain sort of stature that the Jays don't. If Vlad dips his toes in FA and he's getting strong offers from some of the premier teams as well as some southern teams it seems more plausible that he could leave. Whereas with Judge, if he left the Yankees to join San Fran it's kind of a downgrade.

[John_Havok]

Doesn't make sense to me either. They won't get Soto, which probably allows them to fill more holes as a result, but while I admire Rogers' willingness to spend, I think most people see this attempt to fix poor drafting and development with gobs of money as an act of desperation and I tend to agree.

 

Fixing a fundamentally flawed team with little internal talent through free agency makes for an intriguing offseason but it's not a prudent approach.

 

That's one way to see it.

 

But, if you consider that signing Soto means they will be operating in Luxury Tax territory, that could also mean blasting past the penalty lines and not just signing Soto, but other upper end guys that fill obvious holes.

 

Kinda like last year, there's a budget for Ohtani+, or a stop gap budget. This year it's probably the same. A Soto+ budget instead tho

Edited November 23, 2024 by John_Havok

[Jays24]

Reds trade India, Wiemer to Royals for Singer

https://thescore.com/mlb/news/3136605

[Carlos Danger]

Reds trade India, Wiemer to Royals for Singer

https://thescore.com/mlb/news/3136605

 

If you wonder why they give up a solid 4/5 SP, the Royals need a lead off hitter. Their lead off hitters were 28th in the league or something like that... Both the guys they acquired get on base and can set the table for Bobby jr, etc...

[Spanky__99]

Reds trade India, Wiemer to Royals for Singer

https://thescore.com/mlb/news/3136605

 

I don't get this trade, legit. Other than KC is married to defense.

[Spanky__99]

Rule 5 is going to be interesting. A lot of players unprotected, because of the lost year from Covid, apparently, according to Bader.

 

This year is apparently the blip, Jays might be eyeballing some fellas? Cause, I still don't understand why they didn't protect guys when it was readily available, risky gamble on the minor sides of things anyway.

[Jimcanuck]

If you wonder why they give up a solid 4/5 SP, the Royals need a lead off hitter. Their lead off hitters were 28th in the league or something like that... Both the guys they acquired get on base and can set the table for Bobby jr, etc...

 

They may like what they see from Kyle Wrights rehab too

[Laika]

Some really interesting non tenders this year

[Spanky__99]

Some really interesting non tenders this year

 

Indeed.

[Pendleton]

I don't get this trade, legit. Other than KC is married to defense.

 

KC had such an underwhelming lineup last year, needed to add and probably still should. They are Witt and Perez regressions away from having f*** all, and had no one other than Witt had notable on base skills like Carlos mentioned.

 

They have their (super random) big two arms in Lugo/Ragans assuming they hold up, backed up by Wacha and some decent depth options (Wright/Bubic etc). This free agent market seems rather flush with SP options, so they could very conceivably go out and add a decent upgrade to the middle or even top of that group, ending up far ahead in aggregate.

 

If you slide another good vet into the top 3, Wacha makes for a solid #4 and you have a quality competition for the last spot. I think that was their mindset here, replace or upgrade the rotation spot in free agency and the bats acquired are found money.

 

Some really interesting non tenders this year

 

I'm guessing it has something to do with the quality of the free agent crop. Teams are looking to dump as much money from the bottom end of the roster as possible because there's an unusual amount of middle to top tier talent available.

[Spanky__99]

Rule 5 is going to be interesting. A lot of players unprotected, because of the lost year from Covid, apparently, according to Bader.

 

This year is apparently the blip, Jays might be eyeballing some fellas? Cause, I still don't understand why they didn't protect guys when it was readily available, risky gamble on the minor sides of things anyway.

 

KC had such an underwhelming lineup last year, needed to add and probably still should. They are Witt and Perez regressions away from having f*** all, and had no one other than Witt had notable on base skills like Carlos mentioned.

 

They have their (super random) big two arms in Lugo/Ragans assuming they hold up, backed up by Wacha and some decent depth options (Wright/Bubic etc). This free agent market seems rather flush with SP options, so they could very conceivably go out and add a decent upgrade to the middle or even top of that group, ending up far ahead in aggregate.

 

If you slide another good vet into the top 3, Wacha makes for a solid #4 and you have a quality competition for the last spot. I think that was their mindset here, replace or upgrade the rotation spot in free agency and the bats acquired are found money.

 

 

 

I'm guessing it has something to do with the quality of the free agent crop. Teams are looking to dump as much money from the bottom end of the roster as possible because there's an unusual amount of middle to top tier talent available.

 

Yup, as for the trade, I don't hate it, but Singer still feels stiff.

Edited November 23, 2024 by Spanky99
My bad, Springer/Singer you know I don't get the difference, lol

[BTS]

First HoF ballot is in. Not terrible given that no PED guys were going to be picked.

 

[John_Havok]

First HoF ballot is in. Not terrible given that no PED guys were going to be picked.

 

 

On first pass, I dont agree with CC over Felix, id probably have voted for them both. I can understand people dinging Felix for his career ending early though.

 

I think Utley should get in too.

[BTS]

On first pass, I dont agree with CC over Felix, id probably have voted for them both. I can understand people dinging Felix for his career ending early though.

 

I think Utley should get in too.

 

I have CC above Felix, but the more I think about it the more I think Felix will get in. He was so good in his prime that a lot of his counting stats look great by today's standards, even though he was done at 33.

 

People are starting to talk about Wheeler as a potential HoFer and he's like 1200 IP, 900 Ks, 70 wins and 17 fWAR behind Hernandez, going into his age-35 season. He also doesn't have the CY that Felix does, and Felix has 3 more top-10 CY finishes.

[John_Havok]

I have CC above Felix, but the more I think about it the more I think Felix will get in. He was so good in his prime that a lot of his counting stats look great by today's standards, even though he was done at 33.

 

People are starting to talk about Wheeler as a potential HoFer and he's like 1200 IP, 900 Ks, 70 wins and 17 fWAR behind Hernandez, going into his age-35 season. He also doesn't have the CY that Felix does, and Felix has 3 more top-10 CY finishes.

 

I checked and going by 7 year peak, Felix has the edge over CC, imo. CC just managed to have those extra 5 seasons at the end where he wasn't as good, but still decent, so I understand why voters might vote this way.

[BTS]

I checked and going by 7 year peak, Felix has the edge over CC, imo. CC just managed to have those extra 5 seasons at the end where he wasn't as good, but still decent, so I understand why voters might vote this way.

 

Yeah, the counting stats matter to me even if I probably take Felix's peak by a hair. 3500 innings is crazy, and he has 3000 Ks and 250 wins. Huge part of a World Series winner in 2009 too.

[Barrelsandbombs]

Kikuchi to the Angels 63/3

 

[Stangstag]

Kikuchi to the Angels 63/3

 

 

Interesting move lol. Trying to recapture that market they lost with Ohtani leaving haha.

 

Also good for Yusei, he gets a contract twice as large as the one he signed 3 years ago

[mphenhef]

I checked and going by 7 year peak, Felix has the edge over CC, imo. CC just managed to have those extra 5 seasons at the end where he wasn't as good, but still decent, so I understand why voters might vote this way.

 

CC also wore pinstripes which I gaurantee you helps with getting votes.

[mphenhef]

I have CC above Felix, but the more I think about it the more I think Felix will get in. He was so good in his prime that a lot of his counting stats look great by today's standards, even though he was done at 33.

 

People are starting to talk about Wheeler as a potential HoFer and he's like 1200 IP, 900 Ks, 70 wins and 17 fWAR behind Hernandez, going into his age-35 season. He also doesn't have the CY that Felix does, and Felix has 3 more top-10 CY finishes.

 

People are talking about Wheeler as a Hall guy? That's crazy.