Blue Jays Free Agents and Qualifying Offers

[Eat My Shatkins]

It'd be nice to add another mid rotation starter for sure. Hopefully Berrios and Kikuchis troubles are behind them, but let's not forget how bad they were last year.

 

Manoah is such a wild card at this point that you certainly can't count on him for anything.

 

Tiedemann should factor in somehow if he stays healthy, but certainly not a sure thing in any way.

 

Schultz seems to have been moved into a reliever role.

 

White has had a resurgence at AAA, but if he provides anything at the MLB level it'll be a surprise bonus IMO.

 

Gausman

Berrios

Bassitt

Kikuchi

 

Manoah

White

Tiedemann

 

Nobody else is really kicking the door down right now in the minors, need another SP for sure.

[hanton]

Yeah, knew that. Thought the OP was meaning to include all pending FAs, not just the ones that are QO eligible. My misunderstanding there

 

oh right

[Omar]

A QO is a must for Chappy and sign Ryu, i like Greenwood's suggestion, 2/20 Max though, should be able to get him cheaper I think.

 

 

Why is it a must? What if he takes the $20m QO? Expensive, D on the slow decline and questionable bat. Let him go.

[L54]

Yeah there's lots of fish out there this offseason

 

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/free-agents/starting-pitcher/?ref=trending-page

 

No kidding there’s tons

 

I’d probably try and poach the splitter out of Sam Francisco again and target Cobb

[G-Snarls]

Why is it a must? What if he takes the $20m QO? Expensive, D on the slow decline and questionable bat. Let him go.

 

So he doesn't walk for nothing

 

95% likely he declines and you get a draft pick

 

5% chance he accepts and you have a guy at 3B you're overpaying by a few mil but have another year to sort out your 3B situation

 

The good thing is the players have to decide very soon in the off season (mid-late October I think?) whether to accept the QO or not so you have lots of time to sort out your payroll parameters and to look for players after that piece of business is done

[G-Snarls]

No kidding there’s tons

 

I’d probably try and poach the splitter out of Sam Francisco again and target Cobb

 

Nice. We need to either keep Ryu or sign someone else off this list.

 

I would go into the off season assuming we get nothing out of Pearson and Manoah next year and that if they do produce it's a bonus rather than expected.

[L54]

Why is it a must? What if he takes the $20m QO? Expensive, D on the slow decline and questionable bat. Let him go.

 

Because there’s no 3B on the market. He probably declines but if he doesn’t you’re only committed to one more season

 

Which is key because there are at least two guys in the upper minors who might be able to takeover in 2025 in Barger and Martinez.

 

If Chapman declines it’ll be interesting to see how they fill third next year

[G-Snarls]

Because there’s no 3B on the market. He probably declines but if he doesn’t you’re only committed to one more season

 

Which is key because there are at least two guys in the upper minors who might be able to takeover in 2025 in Barger and Martinez.

 

If Chapman declines it’ll be interesting to see how they fill third next year

 

Trade 4 Jose Ramirez

 

I'm sorry I can't help myself

[L54]

Nice. We need to either keep Ryu or sign someone else off this list.

 

I would go into the off season assuming we get nothing out of Pearson and Manoah next year and that if they do produce it's a bonus rather than expected.

 

100%. Not counting on Manoah at all. MikeM is going to hate when the Jays sign another veteran starter but they pretty much have to

[G-Snarls]

100%. Not counting on Manoah at all. MikeM is going to hate when the Jays sign another veteran starter but they pretty much have to

 

They really do

 

And if that pitcher AND Manoah look good in the first half you trade someone at the deasline

 

"Excess SP" is never a real problem

[Omar]

So he doesn't walk for nothing

95% likely he declines and you get a draft pick

 

5% chance he accepts and you have a guy at 3B you're overpaying by a few mil but have another year to sort out your 3B situation

 

The good thing is the players have to decide very soon in the off season (mid-late October I think?) whether to accept the QO or not so you have lots of time to sort out your payroll parameters and to look for players after that piece of business is done

 

Yeah, we all know this. But the Jays are in the over luxury tax threshold catagory so they get a pick after the fourth round; basically nothing.

[Laika]

Because there’s no 3B on the market. He probably declines but if he doesn’t you’re only committed to one more season

 

Which is key because there are at least two guys in the upper minors who might be able to takeover in 2025 in Barger and Martinez.

 

If Chapman declines it’ll be interesting to see how they fill third next year

 

I'm thinking low cost veteran.

 

They have Schneider and Biggio and Orelvis/Barger/Clement/Palmegiani. I am thinking they line up with some veteran at 3B and Schneider at 2B, with Biggio being a possible platoon partner for both if they don't hit. If Biggio performs he could steal a starting role at either spot. Then Orelvis/Barger/Palmegiani as MiLB infield depth. I'd prefer if Espinal is just thought of as a backup SS and nothing more...

 

These guys are ugly options but as a one year stop gap on the cheap, maybe they would be fine (2023 WAR):

 

Brian Anderson (0.5), Giovanny Urshela (0.4), Evan Longoria (0), Donaldson (0.2), Tim Anderson (-0.4), IKF (0.3), Amed Rosario (0.2), Brandon Crawford (0.6), Donovan Solano (1.1)

 

I mean there is nothing in free agency so the only other option is a trade. There are few trade options though, if you think realistic and only focus on minor moves like 2025 free agents. Brandon Drury? He's a good f***ing target tbh.

[Stangstag]

Why is it a must? What if he takes the $20m QO? Expensive, D on the slow decline and questionable bat. Let him go.

 

20m/1yr for a 3-4 WAR third baseman is not a bad deal at all.

[glory]

Because there’s no 3B on the market. He probably declines but if he doesn’t you’re only committed to one more season

 

Which is key because there are at least two guys in the upper minors who might be able to takeover in 2025 in Barger and Martinez.

 

If Chapman declines it’ll be interesting to see how they fill third next year

 

Chapman is a Boras guy so as long as he's healthy he's going to decline. Unless the next 10 days are so abysmal for him that his numbers spiral, but even then Boras could probably do better than 1/20 for him given how bad the FA market is.

 

I think I'm more interested in who the Jays get to fill LF next season. The 3B market is really bad, to the point where just plugging Biggio in there until Orelvis is ready might be the best option. Left field is more important because internally there are no suitable options and they desperately need to add a power bat there.

[Spanky99]

Why is it a must? What if he takes the $20m QO? Expensive, D on the slow decline and questionable bat. Let him go.

 

Who plays 3rd, at worst we get a pick or a bounceback, 3rd base is slim pickin's bro?

[G-Snarls]

Yeah, we all know this. But the Jays are in the over luxury tax threshold catagory so they get a pick after the fourth round; basically nothing.

 

OK well in favour of your point, to be fair:

 

1. The draft picks aren't as good as they used to be for losing free agents, especially if you're a luxury tax team

2. Chapman only made 12.5M this year so a bump to a little over 20M could negatively impact the budget to address LF

 

All in all though it still makes sense to do it and he almost certainly walks anyway

[Spanky99]

I'm thinking low cost veteran.

 

They have Schneider and Biggio and Orelvis/Barger/Clement/Palmegiani. I am thinking they line up with some veteran at 3B and Schneider at 2B, with Biggio being a possible platoon partner for both if they don't hit. If Biggio performs he could steal a starting role at either spot. Then Orelvis/Barger/Palmegiani as MiLB infield depth. I'd prefer if Espinal is just thought of as a backup SS and nothing more...

 

These guys are ugly options but as a one year stop gap on the cheap, maybe they would be fine (2023 WAR):

 

Brian Anderson (0.5), Giovanny Urshela (0.4), Evan Longoria (0), Donaldson (0.2), Tim Anderson (-0.4), IKF (0.3), Amed Rosario (0.2), Brandon Crawford (0.6), Donovan Solano (1.1)

 

I mean there is nothing in free agency so the only other option is a trade. There are few trade options though, if you think realistic and only focus on minor moves like 2025 free agents. Brandon Drury? He's a good f***ing target tbh.

 

Yuck, not Drury of course.

[John_Havok]

Yeah, we all know this. But the Jays are in the over luxury tax threshold catagory so they get a pick after the fourth round; basically nothing.

 

For the Jays don't think of it as a pick, but extra bonus money.

[hanton]

It's a week 3B market, offer him the QO - kind of a win - win, decline and we get the comp pick otherwise 1 year at 20m not that bad for a proven player

[WryNGinger]

For the Jays don't think of it as a pick, but extra bonus money.

 

That is the way I think of it as well. That slot value should work out to be in the $460-$500 thousand range I think.

[Sorrow]

Because there’s no 3B on the market. He probably declines but if he doesn’t you’re only committed to one more season

 

Which is key because there are at least two guys in the upper minors who might be able to takeover in 2025 in Barger and Martinez.

 

If Chapman declines it’ll be interesting to see how they fill third next year

 

Barger seems to have been moved to RF and hasn’t played 3B in a while even when pinch hitting for Mason McCoy as an example and Martinez has been moved to 2B.

[G-Snarls]

who's the best 3b in the league? We need to find him, then get him. Then we do the same for all other positions. Like the padres did.

 

Jose Ramirez leads all 3B in WAR this season

 

So.....

 

Yes!

[Stangstag]

Jose Ramirez leads all 3B in WAR this season

 

So.....

 

Yes!

 

And he’s set to be a free agent after this season!!!…. oops nevermind.

[jaysblue]

Some possible 3B trade candidates this offseason:

 

- Manny Machado

- Nolan Arenado

- Jake Burger

- Ryan McMahon

- J.D. Davis

- Yoán Moncada

 

Jays would have to take on significant payroll for Machado or Arenado, along with trading prospect capital (more for Machado). Very unlikely to happen.

 

Burger is a 30HR + bat but defensively isn't that great and doesn't have a great BB rate. Probably going to finish with a 2.5 WAR this season and doesn't become a FA until 2029. Marlins are always unpredictable though.

 

McMahon could be interesting given his control and contract, but hasn't been anything special with the bat even at Coors Field. Posted a 3 WAR season in 2022 and is sound defensively.

 

J.D. Davis has one more year of control so likely is expendable and since the Giants have Wilmer Flores.

 

Moncada has one more year of control + a 2025 club option. Last two seasons he's been awful but had a 5.5 WAR in 2019 and 4 WAR in 2021. Some more risk but high reward if he returns close to his 2019/2021 seasons and he's still only 28.

 

Out of that group, I think McMahon or Moncada could be great fits here.

[polar bear]

who's the best 3b in the league? We need to find him, then get him. Then we do the same for all other positions. Like the padres did.

Then suck,and miss the playoffs.

[L54]

JD Davis would be interesting too I think. McMahon is an okay option. I don’t want Moncada at all

[THANOS]

Some possible 3B trade candidates this offseason:

 

- Manny Machado

- Nolan Arenado

- Jake Burger

- Ryan McMahon

- J.D. Davis

- Yoán Moncada

 

Jays would have to take on significant payroll for Machado or Arenado, along with trading prospect capital (more for Machado). Very unlikely to happen.

 

Burger is a 30HR + bat but defensively isn't that great and doesn't have a great BB rate. Probably going to finish with a 2.5 WAR this season and doesn't become a FA until 2029. Marlins are always unpredictable though.

 

McMahon could be interesting given his control and contract, but hasn't been anything special with the bat even at Coors Field. Posted a 3 WAR season in 2022 and is sound defensively.

 

J.D. Davis has one more year of control so likely is expendable and since the Giants have Wilmer Flores.

 

Moncada has one more year of control + a 2025 club option. Last two seasons he's been awful but had a 5.5 WAR in 2019 and 4 WAR in 2021. Some more risk but high reward if he returns close to his 2019/2021 seasons and he's still only 28.

 

Out of that group, I think McMahon or Moncada could be great fits here.

 

I think you just grab a 1Y plug off FA for 3B and let Barger/Martinez/etc fight in AAA for the call-up to takeover.

 

What we truly need is a masher for LF. I'm comfortable with Schneider and Biggio rotating to cover 2B and 3B/LF but would rather a masher for LF.

[jaysblue]

JD Davis would be interesting too I think. McMahon is an okay option. I don’t want Moncada at all

 

Yeah JD Davis wouldn't be a bad option as well. Should be good for 2-3 WAR. Who do you think the Jays would have to trade?

 

Moncada comes with some huge risk. Wouldn't give up anything of significance for him and would probably want to bring in another vet 3B like Donaldson or Longoria just in case. Not sure if he'll ever put together another 4-5 WAR season. Still only 28 and if the Jays can't bring in anyone better, would take a flier on him though.

[jaysblue]

I think you just grab a 1Y plug off FA for 3B and let Barger/Martinez/etc fight in AAA for the call-up to takeover.

 

What we truly need is a masher for LF. I'm comfortable with Schneider and Biggio rotating to cover 2B and 3B/LF but would rather a masher for LF.

 

Some FAs who likely will sign a 1 year deal are Donaldson, Longoria, Urshela, and Brian Anderson. Actually like the idea of bringing in Donaldson as a guy who plays some 3B and DHs. Same with Longo.

 

Urshela wouldn't be bad at all if he could stay healthy. If he could come on a 1-year deal, would definitely welcome that. Has shown he's capable of putting up a 2-3 WAR season. Not sure he can return to his 2019/2020 offensive form.

[Terminator]

QO offer to Chapman is a no brainer.

 

Chad Green's options are tempting. I'd decline the 3 year, pray he takes the 1 year and then would strongly consider the 2 year option. He looks dominate lately and the market for setup men is insane so 2 years, 21 mil for him is not bad at all if he's healthy. He can be a multi-inning guy or a late inning guy and he's been one of the best relievers in baseball when healthy. Bringing him back would also allow us to trade a reliever for something.

 

The rest of them can walk although I wouldn't hate the idea of bringing Kiermaier or Ryu back. The rotation will be interesting because if Manoah is healthy we'd have 5 already with Francis, Tiedemen and even Mitch White as depth.