General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2024)

[keggy]

Kind of a little too optimistic on Kirk IMO at 4 WAR

 

It tells us how historically valuable a defensive catcher with a good hit tool are. I'm guessing the projections don't adequately account for how slow and out of shape Kirk is, even for a catcher.

 

Kirk is really pissing away a lot of potential by not getting into better shape, not to mention his long term health beyond baseball.

[Brownie19]

And the Jays rostered Justin Turner for half a season as well. Geez, no wonder why this lineup was so awful at scoring runs.

 

Weren't you hoping we signed Soler last offseason?

[Brownie19]

Ideally if money was no issue.

 

Not sure the Jays could sign both Bregman and one of Teo/Santander etc. If they could, this team definitely becomes a serious contender.

 

Even with Bregman and Teo/Santander, I doubt we're serious contenders. No bullpen still and in all likelihood, either Bregman or Teo/Santander will disappoint in their 1st year here. You see players struggle to adjust to new homes quite commonly. I mean they could contend of course, but it would probably take most things falling into place for that to happen.

[Eat My Shatkins]

Currently sitting at roughly $228 million LT payroll.

 

Ideally I'd like to see the Jays add two more high end FA's, but realistically they probably only have the budget for one.....and hell, they may not be able to land any.

 

I think it's much more likely that one of their developing position players has a break out than a starting pitcher, so my first choice would be Burnes and the hope they get a decent OF/DH at a discount later on or that someone like Barger/Orelvis/Schneider/Loperfido/Wagner/Roden completely blow their projections out of the water.

 

Might be why we're still sitting here waiting, the Jays are waiting on Burnes while he waits on the Giants to bring their offer closer to the Jays offer lol

 

LEVRIDGE

[max silver]

It tells us how historically valuable a defensive catcher with a good hit tool are. I'm guessing the projections don't adequately account for how slow and out of shape Kirk is, even for a catcher.

 

Kirk is really pissing away a lot of potential by not getting into better shape, not to mention his long term health beyond baseball.

 

Take this with a massive grain of salt to be certain but there are posters on other online venues that claim Kirk is looking slimmer in his instagram photos. I read similar claims last offseason and he showed up looking no fitter than usual though.

[burlingtonbandit]

Feels like Kirk's bowling body type actually helps with his blocking lol. That projection does feel a bit optimistic though, as we've seen how a higher amount of playing time leads to him getting worn down and being less productive. Also him being slow likely means he will underperform his xWOBA and I'd take the over on his baserunning being worse than the current projection.

[Brownie19]

Feels like Kirk's bowling body type actually helps with his blocking lol. That projection does feel a bit optimistic though, as we've seen how a higher amount of playing time leads to him getting worn down and being less productive. Also him being slow likely means he will underperform his xWOBA and I'd take the over on his baserunning being worse than the current projection.

 

Tend to agree. The most optimistic thing for Kirk is that he should be entering his prime as he heads into his age 26 season and in his 4th full season catching at the ML level, he should be past the "play defense first" stage and able to focus on offense more. There should still be optimism in his bat moving forward.

[max silver]

Tend to agree. The most optimistic thing for Kirk is that he should be entering his prime as he heads into his age 26 season and in his 4th full season catching at the ML level, he should be past the "play defense first" stage and able to focus on offense more. There should still be optimism in his bat moving forward.

 

It does feel like there should be some available upside in the bat as he's produced at a high clip previously.

[Omar]

This franchise is turning into a laughing stock...

 

[Terminator]

This franchise is turning into a laughing stock...

 

 

These other GMs must hate Atkins. Just price checking them left and right.

[glory]

Next Jays pickup has to be Naylor because the Guardians might be the only team to pity Atkins enough to actually deal with him.

[jaysblue]

Currently sitting at roughly $228 million LT payroll.

 

Ideally I'd like to see the Jays add two more high end FA's, but realistically they probably only have the budget for one.....and hell, they may not be able to land any.

 

I think it's much more likely that one of their developing position players has a break out than a starting pitcher, so my first choice would be Burnes and the hope they get a decent OF/DH at a discount later on or that someone like Barger/Orelvis/Schneider/Loperfido/Wagner/Roden completely blow their projections out of the water.

 

Might be why we're still sitting here waiting, the Jays are waiting on Burnes while he waits on the Giants to bring their offer closer to the Jays offer lol

LEVRIDGE

 

I get the same feeling unfortunately. It doesn't surprise me if Atkins is waiting to hear on Burnes before moving onto someone else like Santander or Teo or Bregman. Hope that's not the case because they might miss the boat on others.

[jaysblue]

Even with Bregman and Teo/Santander, I doubt we're serious contenders. No bullpen still and in all likelihood, either Bregman or Teo/Santander will disappoint in their 1st year here. You see players struggle to adjust to new homes quite commonly. I mean they could contend of course, but it would probably take most things falling into place for that to happen.

 

Obviously yes would have to add to the bullpen if they added both Teo and Bregman. That should be a given lol.

 

I don't know why Teo would struggle in his first year here? He's had most of his success playing with Toronto.

[Brownie19]

Obviously yes would have to add to the bullpen if they added both Teo and Bregman. That should be a given lol.

 

I don't know why Teo would struggle in his first year here? He's had most of his success playing with Toronto.

 

It's been a couple of years. The park has changed significantly, new teammates, new coaching staff and I'm told the # of bums and addicts has increased dramatically in TO. Also, the word "or" suggests it could also be the other person named who struggles. It's obviously not guarantee, but it's more common than you think.

[Pendleton]

Currently sitting at roughly $228 million LT payroll.

 

Ideally I'd like to see the Jays add two more high end FA's, but realistically they probably only have the budget for one.....and hell, they may not be able to land any.

 

I think it's much more likely that one of their developing position players has a break out than a starting pitcher, so my first choice would be Burnes and the hope they get a decent OF/DH at a discount later on or that someone like Barger/Orelvis/Schneider/Loperfido/Wagner/Roden completely blow their projections out of the water.

 

Might be why we're still sitting here waiting, the Jays are waiting on Burnes while he waits on the Giants to bring their offer closer to the Jays offer lol

 

LEVRIDGE

 

I think it's spelled Lethbridge

[G-Snarls]

These other GMs must hate Atkins. Just price checking them left and right.

 

Yuuuuuuuuuppppppppp! - Ross Atkins

[Abomination]

We need to start charging other teams and players a commission for using us.

[jerb]

[Jays24]

These other GMs must hate Atkins. Just price checking them left and right.

 

And that includes his own fanbase, along with the other GMs lol.

[Jays24]

 

This works out great if you got "waves of talent" coming through the farm to replace the more expensive talent. Instead we've been getting rid of our good players and replacing them with nothing... it's why we're where we are...

[Dagagad]

Atkins genius is convincing fans he is smart when he isn't. Great.. he understands team control. So does everyone else. His FO cannot identify talent that they can develop. They are a mediocre ass front office that runs a pretty high pay roll. Should have been gone. Should be replaced now so that when we do have to trade vlad and bo, its done by a competent person.

[burlingtonbandit]

I feel like you could put a strong peoples person in Atkins role and he would do a lot better. The Jays like most teams seem to be quite process driven with their systems identifying players values. Yet when it comes to contract negotiations/trades/talking to media he’s so unremarkable.

 

When AA was here right after a trade or signing a lot of the time it felt “wow that was a great trade, or wow the jays signed him for lower $ than I thought it would cost”

 

With Atkins he’s made some good trades/signings that have worked out well but nothing right off the moment it was announced where you went “wow that was a steal” (The Chapman trade I could agree felt like a big win).

 

Not to mention it seems like a lot of players don’t have much respect for him.

[jaysblue]

I feel like you could put a strong peoples person in Atkins role and he would do a lot better. The Jays like most teams seem to be quite process driven with their systems identifying players values. Yet when it comes to contract negotiations/trades/talking to media he’s so unremarkable.

 

When AA was here right after a trade or signing a lot of the time it felt “wow that was a great trade, or wow the jays signed him for lower $ than I thought it would cost”

 

With Atkins he’s made some good trades/signings that have worked out well but nothing right off the moment it was announced where you went “wow that was a steal” (The Chapman trade I could agree felt like a big win).

 

Not to mention it seems like a lot of players don’t have much respect for him.

 

Brownie and Max responses incoming.

[Dagagad]

I feel like you could put a strong peoples person in Atkins role and he would do a lot better. The Jays like most teams seem to be quite process driven with their systems identifying players values. Yet when it comes to contract negotiations/trades/talking to media he’s so unremarkable.

 

When AA was here right after a trade or signing a lot of the time it felt “wow that was a great trade, or wow the jays signed him for lower $ than I thought it would cost”

 

With Atkins he’s made some good trades/signings that have worked out well but nothing right off the moment it was announced where you went “wow that was a steal” (The Chapman trade I could agree felt like a big win).

 

Not to mention it seems like a lot of players don’t have much respect for him.

 

We don't need a people person. We need people who can build a development system and then acquire talent that we can develop.

 

He's not bad at soft skills, he's bad at core skills. Just because he's bad at social skills does not mean he is smart.

[burlingtonbandit]

We don't need a people person. We need people who can build a development system and then acquire talent that we can develop.

 

He's not bad at soft skills, he's bad at core skills. Just because he's bad at social skills does not mean he is smart.

 

Well yeah they clearly need better player development, but that’s more of having the right coaches/systems in place. And to be honest that’s something that doesn’t just show up in one year it probably takes 3-5 years for it to show up in a meaningful way.

 

They could finally have the proper development coaches in place now, and it’s very likely Atkins is gone before we find out.

[Spanky99]

You have this backwards. The majority of Vlad's negative run value was based on holding instead of attempting to take an extra base when the opportunity presented itself. He was essentially even when he attempted to take an extra base (+2 advances/-2 thrown out) but he was -4 due to holding when there was an extra base available to him.

 

Kirk's extreme passivity on the bases was the primary reason why he rated so poorly. He accumulated -3 runs on holds alone, where he had an opportunity to advance an extra base based on various factors and decided to not attempt to take the extra base. It's definitely a double edged sword with someone that slow though as the inherent risk of being thrown out on all but the easiest opportunities to advance would essentially negate most of these opportunities.

 

His problem is essentially, harebrained decisions. Not sure if that can be fixed with Vlad, his baseball IQ is abysmal.

[Spanky99]

It's probably due to his low baseball IQ.

 

Bingo.

[Spanky99]

Just looked it up and Vlad's sprint speed is 45th percentile and his baserunning score is 1st percentile ! lol. Kirk's sprint is 4th and baserunning 6th percentile.

 

So Vlad should be able to clean up his baserunning a lot. Kirk is what he is.

 

I don't think that's true with Vlad, his decisions on the basepaths are terrible, and I love Vladdy. I'd gladfully like to be wrong here.

[Spanky99]

From Ben Clemens latest chat: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/ben-clemens-fangraphs-chat-12-16-24/

 

Do you have to pay for this now, or do use a VPN?

[Spanky99]

It tells us how historically valuable a defensive catcher with a good hit tool are. I'm guessing the projections don't adequately account for how slow and out of shape Kirk is, even for a catcher.

 

Kirk is really pissing away a lot of potential by not getting into better shape, not to mention his long term health beyond baseball.

 

It sure does, and bsr is certainly calculated in that number. Here's to hoping he's working on the latter, last year his wedding was in the way of his training apparently, and he did come to camp in better shape than prior seasons. I'm crossing my fingers.