General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2024)

[Terminator]

Feel like most of the shine is off of Davis Schneider now. He's still only going to be 26 next year, but there's some strong Cavan Bigigo vibes there. Unless he has a strong end of the year can't imagine he's got more than a utility role going into next year.

 

We've probably got a few too many infield utility player types, Clement/Jimenez/Schneider/Barger all fall into that category, and now we've got Wagner as well. At some point Orelvis will be up post suspension. I want to see them stick with Horwitz at 2B cause I've got more faith in his bat there. Barger is still entirely a question mark and Jimenez hasn't shown much. If we're lucky one of those guys can be a starter for a while and my money is on Horwitz.

 

If we trade Bo and sign/trade for a replacement or if we decide to stick with Bo then we definitely should be seeing what reliever we can get for some of our utility pieces. Clement's had the strongest showing so far as a bench piece I think.

 

Yeah the dreams of him being a 3 WAR player are gone. He should be a good short side platoon player and bench player though. He does lack defensive versatility but he's actually much better in the OF than I thought. So he at least can play close to average at both 2B and LF. He and Wagner would make for a great 2B platoon.

[AMS528]

Yeah the dreams of him being a 3 WAR player are gone. He should be a good short side platoon player and bench player though. He does lack defensive versatility but he's actually much better in the OF than I thought. So he at least can play close to average at both 2B and LF. He and Wagner would make for a great 2B platoon.

 

Maybe this is ill-advised or a waste of a potentially good platoon, but given the statcast numbers, and his bat (so far), it feels like Horwitz could put up good value at 2B. Is it more valuable to the team to do possibly effective platoon and stick him at DH (plus starts at 1st and 2nd on occasion) where his bat is potentially just ok?

[Terminator]

Maybe this is ill-advised or a waste of a potentially good platoon, but given the statcast numbers, and his bat (so far), it feels like Horwitz could put up good value at 2B. Is it more valuable to the team to do possibly effective platoon and stick him at DH (plus starts at 1st and 2nd on occasion) where his bat is potentially just ok?

 

Yeah it's definitely an annoying problem. We've got some good options that are cheap and young but their best position is 2B.

[Brownie19]

Yeah the dreams of him being a 3 WAR player are gone. He should be a good short side platoon player and bench player though. He does lack defensive versatility but he's actually much better in the OF than I thought. So he at least can play close to average at both 2B and LF. He and Wagner would make for a great 2B platoon.

 

I applaud the Jays for giving DS an extended look as a full-time player this year, but the reality is the probability of him becoming a ML starter were never high. I think most of the advanced metrics predicted he was a flawed player who probably couldn't hack it. It explains why the Jays used him in specific matchups to start this year and didn't trust him in the playoffs (after his 0-35 streak). Fans love to bitch about those predictive systems, but this is probably a good example of the system working.

 

He's probably going to have to be a lefty MASHER - ala Steve Pearce, if he's going to stick at the ML level (which is something he certainly hasn't been). He simply doesn't do anything else well enough to warrant a roster spot.

 

To be honest, most of these Buffalo kids are going to fail. We'll probably be lucky if 1 of them becomes a ML starter for the Jays over the next 3-5 years and 1 of them becomes a quality backup player.

[Terminator]

I applaud the Jays for giving DS an extended look as a full-time player this year, but the reality is the probability of him becoming a ML starter were never high. I think most of the advanced metrics predicted he was a flawed player who probably couldn't hack it. It explains why the Jays used him in specific matchups to start this year and didn't trust him in the playoffs (after his 0-35 streak). Fans love to bitch about those predictive systems, but this is probably a good example of the system working.

 

He's probably going to have to be a lefty MASHER - ala Steve Pearce, if he's going to stick at the ML level (which is something he certainly hasn't been). He simply doesn't do anything else well enough to warrant a roster spot.

 

To be honest, most of these Buffalo kids are going to fail. We'll probably be lucky if 1 of them becomes a ML starter for the Jays over the next 3-5 years and 1 of them becomes a quality backup player.

 

Yikes, I don't think he's THAT bad. You are describing him like he should be in the Mexican League but I think it's clear at this point that he belongs in MLB. It's probably just as a bench/platoon player and not a starter.

 

He does plenty of things well enough. Average/acceptable D at both 2B and LF. Very good walk rate. Solid power. His main problem is that he has high launch angle, mid exit velos, and high K's, all of which combine to tank his average. But even so he's projected to be a 2+ WAR player. He's not bad.

[Brownie19]

Yikes, I don't think he's THAT bad. You are describing him like he should be in the Mexican League but I think it's clear at this point that he belongs in MLB. It's probably just as a bench/platoon player and not a starter.

 

He does plenty of things well enough. Average/acceptable D at both 2B and LF. Very good walk rate. Solid power. His main problem is that he has high launch angle, mid exit velos, and high K's, all of which combine to tank his average. But even so he's projected to be a 2+ WAR player. He's not bad.

 

Perhaps. Most quality benches are constructed of:

 

1. backup catcher;

2. someone who can play SS;

3. someone who can play CF (ideally all 3 OF positions); and

4. someone who can do some damage offensively.

 

Now not everyone carries a 4th OFer who can play CF or is strong defensively in the OF, so maybe he can fill the 4th OF role on a team - but he's really not ideal in that role. In terms of #4, the guy who can do some damage often has strong platoon splits so you can start him in favorable matchups.

 

I like Davis. I hope he improves and carves out a long career at the ML level. I just think he's facing an uphill battle.

[Stangstag]

Unless it's a promotion to a made up VP position or a President roll have we ever seen a GM re-assigned to something lateral or a supposed demotion (scouting)?

 

I think Atkins is gone altogether.

 

Didn’t Ruben Amaro get demoted to base coach?? Lol

[metafour]

Yikes, I don't think he's THAT bad. You are describing him like he should be in the Mexican League but I think it's clear at this point that he belongs in MLB. It's probably just as a bench/platoon player and not a starter.

 

He does plenty of things well enough. Average/acceptable D at both 2B and LF. Very good walk rate. Solid power. His main problem is that he has high launch angle, mid exit velos, and high K's, all of which combine to tank his average. But even so he's projected to be a 2+ WAR player. He's not bad.

 

His ISO is down to .155 this season (xSLG = .374) and he combines that with low BA, a really high strikeout rate, and below average contact rates.

 

Even with the above average walk rate and chase rate, that profile is pretty ugly. Traditionally the guys that stick around in the MLB with high strikeouts/poor contact are typically guys with raw power who can mash and run into HR's even when they dont make the best contact. Schneider isn't even that, as his EV's are all very average. He is dependant on pulling the ball with optimal launch-angle to generate power, but the fact that he doesn't make contact and strikes out so much limits the number of occurrences where he is able to pull and barrel the ball properly.

 

The other Buffalo guys (Wagner, Horwitz, Roden, Kasevich) are all contact freaks. I have a much easier time seeing those guys stick. Roden by the way hits the ball VERY hard. I've been looking at Buffalo games on Statcast recently and he is reaching 110+ mph EV's seemingly every couple games.

[G-Snarls]

Didn’t Ruben Amaro get demoted to base coach?? Lol

 

Sort of

 

Philies fired him from his GM job (they hired him to replaced Pat Gillick - had forgotten that)

 

He presumably couldn't get another front office job anywhere

 

Red Sox hired him as a base coach

 

So yes, quite the career drop off LOL

[Terminator]

Didn’t Ruben Amaro get demoted to base coach?? Lol

 

Lmao I forgot about that. He must hate his wife or something and wanted any ole job that would get him out of the house.

[Olerud363]

Maybe this is ill-advised or a waste of a potentially good platoon, but given the statcast numbers, and his bat (so far), it feels like Horwitz could put up good value at 2B. Is it more valuable to the team to do possibly effective platoon and stick him at DH (plus starts at 1st and 2nd on occasion) where his bat is potentially just ok?

 

Who knows for sure, but based on fangraphs numbers so far the Jays might be 2 wins better with Horwitz at first and Vlad at DH.

 

I can't remember exactly how the fangraphs d-number translates to wins, but right now Vlad is like a -20 per 162 games and Horwitz close to 0. So Horwitz at DH (-15) and Vlad at first (-20) is minus 35, but say Horwitz at first (-5) and Vlad at DH (-15) is only -20. And that could be a bit better if Howritz could score near 0 at first.

[Olerud363]

Who knows for sure, but based on fangraphs numbers so far the Jays might be 2 wins better with Horwitz at first and Vlad at DH.

 

I can't remember exactly how the fangraphs d-number translates to wins, but right now Vlad is like a -20 per 162 games and Horwitz close to 0. So Horwitz at DH (-15) and Vlad at first (-20) is minus 35, but say Horwitz at first (-5) and Vlad at DH (-15) is only -20. And that could be a bit better if Howritz could score near 0 at first.

 

Like Howritz, if he is actually OK defensively, isn't wasted at first, because he can still contribute there. Variation between best and worst first base defense is a WAR or 2.

[Laika]

Imagine how awesomely bad the Vlad - Bo - Horwitz 3B-SS-2B infield would be though

 

I must see it

[Terminator]

Imagine how awesomely bad the Vlad - Bo - Horwitz 3B-SS-2B infield would be though

 

I must see it

 

Tight game in the 8th inning and setup man Zach Pop induces his patented ground ball to SS. Bo bobbles it before feeding Horwitz who can't get the ball out of his glove before throwing a 70 mph strike to Vlad who has the ball go through the webbing of his glove.

 

Giancarlo Stanton just beats out the GIDP before Anthony Volpe hits a 3-run bomb the next AB. Jays lose 6-4.

[Orgfiller]

Imagine how awesomely bad the Vlad - Bo - Horwitz 3B-SS-2B infield would be though

 

I must see it

 

Don't forget Wagner at 2B for maximum chaos. The new market inefficiency is gonna be pairing Berrios and other slick fielding pitchers to cover up for the abysmal infield defense.

[John_Havok]

Don't forget Wagner at 2B for maximum chaos. The new market inefficiency is gonna be pairing Berrios and other slick fielding pitchers to cover up for the abysmal infield defense.

 

For Berrios, do we get a fielder in the bleachers?

[wilko]

For Berrios, do we get a fielder in the bleachers?

 

An angel in the outfield.

[G-Snarls]

Tight game in the 8th inning and setup man Zach Pop induces his patented ground ball to SS. Bo bobbles it before feeding Horwitz who can't get the ball out of his glove before throwing a 70 mph strike to Vlad who has the ball go through the webbing of his glove.

 

Giancarlo Stanton just beats out the GIDP before Anthony Volpe hits a 3-run bomb the next AB. Jays lose 6-4.

 

Wow

 

You nailed the visual that Laika never should have asked for

[Spanky99]

Wow

 

You nailed the visual that Laika never should have asked for

 

Hilarious.

[connorp]

His EV data is close to the values for Altuve, Semien, Bregman, Bogaerts. These are all guys with low K rates that sacrifice power for contact, but are good hitters that they can punish mistakes.

 

Again, he has made approach changes, he is not the same hitter he was pre-injury.

 

Some team is going to give Bregman like 6 years and really regret it

[Spanky99]

Some team is going to give Bregman like 6 years and really regret it

 

Why are you bumping s*** from February, ya Bird?

[Jimcanuck]

Some team is going to give Bregman like 6 years and really regret it

 

He's one of the most consistent players in baseball. For the year he is at 116 wRC+ (152 in the 2nd half), and is at 3.2 WAR. He'll have a wRC+ over 120 and over 4 WAR again this year.

 

30 yrs old.

 

What is the basis of your "really regret it"?

[glory]

Maybe this is ill-advised or a waste of a potentially good platoon, but given the statcast numbers, and his bat (so far), it feels like Horwitz could put up good value at 2B. Is it more valuable to the team to do possibly effective platoon and stick him at DH (plus starts at 1st and 2nd on occasion) where his bat is potentially just ok?

 

If Horwitz is a 115-120 wRC+ bat, then I think you can live with him at 1B/DH primarily. The one position you can envision the Jays being able to cobble together above average production internally is 2B (Wagner, Orelvis, DS, Jimenez, etc). They can’t do that anywhere else unfortunately. If they were set everywhere else and just needed a 2B, then yes I think Horwitz at 2B would be the right call. It may be the right call regardless (no guarantee that Wagner and others are any good), but given the team’s needs, intentions (contending), and resources, they might be better off at least initially with Horwitz as more of a 1B/DH/2B hybrid and investing in LF, 3B, rotation, etc. If they decide that they want to invest in a DH like Santander or something, then Horwitz at 2B becomes the best option, but you could argue that’s not the best use of whatever payroll wiggle room they will have.

[L54]

Make Spencer Horwitz the second piece of a Brent Rooker trade

[Terminator]

Make Spencer Horwitz the second piece of a Brent Rooker trade

 

Yeah he could be a good trade piece. I also think he'd be fine as the DH. Nothing wrong with having one that can also play the field.

[Terminator]

He's one of the most consistent players in baseball. For the year he is at 116 wRC+ (152 in the 2nd half), and is at 3.2 WAR. He'll have a wRC+ over 120 and over 4 WAR again this year.

 

30 yrs old.

 

What is the basis of your "really regret it"?

 

Yeah Bregman gets a lot of hate here. I think his personality subconsciously rubs people the wrong way but it's mostly because everyone assumes he's going to get some monster deal. Matt Chapman was projected to get 5 years, 120 mil and ended up getting 3 years, 54 mil. Need to monitor Bregman closely because he'd be a great add on the right deal. Same with Chapman.

[max silver]

Yeah he could be a good trade piece. I also think he'd be fine as the DH. Nothing wrong with having one that can also play the field.

 

I like Hortwitz just fine as a platoon DH who can spend some time at 1B/2B as needed. That allows the team to allocate the limited financial resources as needed to fill out the roster with DH largely filled. Having said that I'd have no issues with trading him as Wagner might end up as a pretty similar type of player.

[Terminator]

I like Hortwitz just fine as a platoon DH who can spend some time at 1B/2B as needed. That allows the team to allocate the limited financial resources as needed to fill out the roster with DH largely filled. Having said that I'd have no issues with trading him as Wagner might end up as a pretty similar type of player.

 

Yeah it makes sense. Wagner at 2B and Horwitz at DH allows the team to focus on LF, 3B, SP, and 4 relievers to turn this team into a contender. Lol that's a lot of holes to fill.

 

I'm also not ready to bury Schneider. With all these newfound lefties in the lineup he can sprinkle in at 2B or LF or maybe even DH as a platoon bat. It all fits pretty well.

[max silver]

Yeah it makes sense. Wagner at 2B and Horwitz at DH allows the team to focus on LF, 3B, SP, and 4 relievers to turn this team into a contender. Lol that's a lot of holes to fill.

 

I'm also not ready to bury Schneider. With all these newfound lefties in the lineup he can sprinkle in at 2B or LF or maybe even DH as a platoon bat. It all fits pretty well.

 

I wouldn't completely write Schneider off either. I think he could really benefit from some AAA time to get full time at bats in order to rediscover his stroke.

[AMS528]

 

I'm also not ready to bury Schneider. With all these newfound lefties in the lineup he can sprinkle in at 2B or LF or maybe even DH as a platoon bat. It all fits pretty well.

 

Given your hatred of Cavan Biggio I'm almost surprised at your optimism on Schneider. They basically have super similar batting profiles and even their usage potential as utility players. Launch angle guys with excellent chase rates who basically entirely rely on those two things.