General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2024)

[hanton]

If you guys want to look at sustainability, Vlad's launch angle sweet spot has crept up from 20th percentile to 32nd percentile since May. Honestly genuinely good news on that front. He's been putting together the better aspects of his 2022 and 2023 seasons.

 

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/vladimir-guerrero-jr-665489?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb

 

Since the lowpoint of his season in April, from April 26th onwards he's played 74 games at 319/375/528 good for a 155 wRC+.

 

There's good signs. Get him away from 1B to RF, where who knows maybe it even encourages him to maintain his current fitness levels and yeah we can sign him long term and feel ok that there's a floor there.

 

I think he either stopped listiening or the coaches decided to just let him do his thing; he looks much more relaxed at the plate

[AMS528]

I shudder to think what kind of butchery Vlad would give us in RF.

 

Hah yeah it could really be ugly, but like I mentioned earlier, he's horrific at 1B and it doesn't use his one strength which is his arm. He has reasonably average sprint speed as well. I'm not saying it would work out well necessarily, but maybe it's worth a shot.

[Brownie19]

I think he either stopped listiening or the coaches decided to just let him do his thing; he looks much more relaxed at the plate

 

I wouldn't conclude that at all. Vlad's always done his own thing. When he struggles, the Jays fly in his relatives to work with him because those are the only people he "trusts". This has been on-going for years, which was quite frustrating when he was a 118 wRC+ ground ball hitter who was pushing his hands forward. I actually think there's a possibility that Vlad finally gave up on using that approach and is finally listening to the professional hitting coaches on the team...

 

Castro Bros did a good breakdown of the adjustments he's made -

Castro Bros (@castro_bros) • Instagram reel

WWW.INSTAGRAM.COM

---

3,903 likes, 45 comments - castro_bros on July 6, 2024: "He is in better situation with the hands now 🫡🔥 #softball #softballlife #softballdrills #softballstrong #fastpitch #softballlove #softballsisters #miami #florida #fastpitchsoftball #fastpitchlife #baseballmom #baseballlife #baseballisback #baseballseason #baseballboys #baseballplays #baseballlove #baseballfan #hitting #hittingdrills #hittingpost #hittingcoach #hittingmechanics #hittingbombs #hittinggoals #hittinginstructor #texasbaseball #californiabaseball".

[Stangstag]

In a market as big as Toronto, I don’t think that’s true. Fans want to see a winner, and they will move on to the next “franchise player” when the time comes. I’m sure casuals will be upset if Vlad is traded, but if the team is good again in 2-3 years, I don’t see it having any long lasting impact. On the flip side, if the team has Vlad, even an extended Vlad, on a bunch of s***** teams trying to compete over the next 2 years, will attendance still be up? I don’t know about that. Unless fans really love the stadium renovations, I think interest will drop regardless. Jays saw a ~1 million fan drop from 2017 to 2018. The 2024 attendance is likely in part due to the renovations and in part due to the 2021-23 run, but next season’s attendance will be a real test.

 

With that said, if the Jays aren’t trading him now, and Rogers wants to keep him, then extend him. If you want to dangle a carrot at free agents, at least having an extended Vlad shows that another “star” will be there for a while.

 

True enough, but if we trade Vlad AND have a bad team you can guarantee attendance will immediately crater. IF you keep Vlad and try to hover 80ish wins most of the casuals don't understand the team is bad until August/September

[Brownie19]

He shouldn't be the face of the franchise? He is so just deal with that.

 

He won't be the face of the franchise if we trade him! Problem solved.

[Olerud363]

walk rate / on base will normalize once they start pitching around him again. Ill take June vlad and his .290 ISO driven 172 wrc+ over his May 166 wrC+ driven by walking and slapping singles with a .112 ISO all day.

 

Sure, overall the wRC+ is close enough to a wash, but the power driven wRC+ is far sexier and not sustained by BABIP, but sustained by smashing the piss out of baseballs.

 

His batting average was the same in both cases. It was only walk rate that was different.

 

April/May Vlad was like .290 12 homers 100 walks, June/July is like .290 36 homers 30 walks. The first is better and also sustainable. Many, many players have done that.

 

I agree his walk rate will probably rebound and hopefully the power stays too.

[John_Havok]

His batting average was the same in both cases. It was only walk rate that was different.

 

April/May Vlad was like .290 12 homers 100 walks, June/July is like .290 36 homers 30 walks. The first is better and also sustainable. Many, many players have done that.

 

I agree his walk rate will probably rebound and hopefully the power stays too.

 

BABIP in May .413 (unsustainable)

BABIP in June .310 (sustainable)

[Carlos Danger]

They are talking about why fans are going to the ballpark on Fan590 today. 38K plus last night on a Tuesday vs the Rays.

 

Feedback from fans is they are going to the park as part of a vacation, to see the new renovations a social experience on a nice summer night etc.

 

I went and saw the Jays play the Giants the other day just to go to the stadium. I am going to see the Jays play the Orioles in August to have something to do at night while on a business trip and see the new renovations. I will see the Jays at Fenway later in August to for the experience.

 

Key point- None of the feedback or my reason for going to games has to do with wanting to see Vlad. I couldn't care less about that factor.

 

Vlad is not the majority reason buts are in the seats.

[Olerud363]

BABIP in May .413 (unsustainable)

BABIP in June .310 (sustainable)

 

Now do April and May together... Jesus.

 

Vlad hit .230 in April, .276 babip, .360 in May, .400 babip. Combine the two months like I have.

[John_Havok]

Now do April and May together... Jesus.

 

Vlad hit .230 in April, .276 babip, .360 in May, .400 babip. Combine the two months like I have.

 

Great, his ISO was still garbage in april. My overall point is that I'd rather see Vlad driving his wRC+ with an average BABIP, and .290 ISO rather than limp noodling oppo singles and walks. Yes, i'd rather see his walk rate at 10% or higher, which i think will return in short order.

[hanton]

I wouldn't conclude that at all. Vlad's always done his own thing. When he struggles, the Jays fly in his relatives to work with him because those are the only people he "trusts". This has been on-going for years, which was quite frustrating when he was a 118 wRC+ ground ball hitter who was pushing his hands forward. I actually think there's a possibility that Vlad finally gave up on using that approach and is finally listening to the professional hitting coaches on the team...

 

Castro Bros did a good breakdown of the adjustments he's made -

Castro Bros (@castro_bros) • Instagram reel

WWW.INSTAGRAM.COM

---

3,903 likes, 45 comments - castro_bros on July 6, 2024: "He is in better situation with the hands now 🫡🔥 #softball #softballlife #softballdrills #softballstrong #fastpitch #softballlove #softballsisters #miami #florida #fastpitchsoftball #fastpitchlife #baseballmom #baseballlife #baseballisback #baseballseason #baseballboys #baseballplays #baseballlove #baseballfan #hitting #hittingdrills #hittingpost #hittingcoach #hittingmechanics #hittingbombs #hittinggoals #hittinginstructor #texasbaseball #californiabaseball".

 

that's not pushing the hands forward that's called swinging down on the ball, if you heard the phrase "short to the ball, long through the zone" that's what he was doing - kills your power. It's a Mattingly thing which is weird because even he didn't swing like that, he hates long swings.

[Spanky99]

Imagine contemplating trading the face of the franchise (who has openly stated that he wants to stay) and risk getting fleeced in the exchange (a distinct possibility!) just to save a few bucks while maybe also alienating any free agent you may want to attract? If you think this season is bad just wait. This has pr disaster written all over it.

 

You guys really want to see Davis Schneider doing Uncrustable commercials with Springer for the next three years? Imagine all the crumbs stuck in his stache? Not a good look.

 

lol... on point.

[BTS]

Very surprised at how many of you are fine throwing 250-300M at a fat defensive butcher 1B with a career 132 wRC+. He'll be 27 when the extension kicks in. This type of contract, for this type of player, has typically been a sunk cost by like the first third of the deal. I could see if we had reason to believe he was going to be more of a 150-160 wRC+ guy over at least the first half of the deal, but he hasn't been that player and doesn't project to be. Very Blue Jays to get tunnel vision on this one guy instead of focusing on what else competent management (fingers crossed) could do with 300M.

[L54]

If you guys want to look at sustainability, Vlad's launch angle sweet spot has crept up from 20th percentile to 32nd percentile since May. Honestly genuinely good news on that front. He's been putting together the better aspects of his 2022 and 2023 seasons.

 

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/vladimir-guerrero-jr-665489?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb

 

Since the lowpoint of his season in April, from April 26th onwards he's played 74 games at 319/375/528 good for a 155 wRC+.

 

There's good signs. Get him away from 1B to RF, where who knows maybe it even encourages him to maintain his current fitness levels and yeah we can sign him long term and feel ok that there's a floor there.

 

I noticed last night that the launch angle sweet spot had gone up, I just wasn’t sure how much. Is there a way to look by dates or do you just remember that it was 20th percentile at the end of May? Because that’s the biggest factor l turning him into Yordan Alvarez instead of Luis Arraez

[John_Havok]

Very surprised at how many of you are fine throwing 250-300M at a fat defensive butcher 1B with a career 132 wRC+. He'll be 27 when the extension kicks in. This type of contract, for this type of player, has typically been a sunk cost by like the first third of the deal. I could see if we had reason to believe he was going to be more of a 150-160 wRC+ guy over at least the first half of the deal, but he hasn't been that player and doesn't project to be. Very Blue Jays to get tunnel vision on this one guy instead of focusing on what else competent management (fingers crossed) could do with 300M.

 

To be clear, I'm not cool with 300 million.

[Laika]

Very surprised at how many of you are fine throwing 250-300M at a fat defensive butcher 1B with a career 132 wRC+. He'll be 27 when the extension kicks in. This type of contract, for this type of player, has typically been a sunk cost by like the first third of the deal. I could see if we had reason to believe he was going to be more of a 150-160 wRC+ guy over at least the first half of the deal, but he hasn't been that player and doesn't project to be. Very Blue Jays to get tunnel vision on this one guy instead of focusing on what else competent management (fingers crossed) could do with 300M.

 

Step 1 sign him in his current form (3 WAR fat 1B) for 10/$200

Step 2 make him a LF, this instantly turns him into a 4 WAR funny LF (he will be no worse than Davis Schneider, his arm is better, and he sucks at 1B anyway)

Step 3 solve the offensive riddle that he is so he is 140+ wRC+ forever

 

profit, ez

 

this guy will end his career as a Manny Ramirez type, universally beloved, and go into Cooperstown with a Blue Jay hat because of this process.

[John_Havok]

I noticed last night that the launch angle sweet spot had gone up, I just wasn’t sure how much. Is there a way to look by dates or do you just remember that it was 20th percentile at the end of May? Because that’s the biggest factor l turning him into Yordan Alvarez instead of Luis Arraez

 

As far as I know we cant search by dates at baseball savant. But yeah, i had mentioned the increased a few posts above as well. It's definitely increased dramatically in the last month or so

 

A not so perfect system is using the fangraphs splits tool... in July, GB rate is down to 46% from over 53 in May /june, FB rate has increased from 22% in May to 35% in June, and again to 38% in July. It's messy, but it at least it seems to show a change in approach or mechanics.

Edited July 24, 2024 by John_Havok

[L54]

As far as I know we cant search by dates at baseball savant. But yeah, i had mentioned the increased a few posts above as well. It's definitely increased dramatically in the last month or so

 

I remember it being ice cold blue but now the temperature is getting warmer …

[Laika]

You can look at his LA by time period on Fangraphs though

 

season: 6.5 degrees

season up to May 31: 5.9 degrees (11.6% barrel rate)

June 1 to present: 7.3 degrees (14.3% barrel rate)

just July: 12.2 degrees, 17.6% barrel rate

[AMS528]

I noticed last night that the launch angle sweet spot had gone up, I just wasn’t sure how much. Is there a way to look by dates or do you just remember that it was 20th percentile at the end of May? Because that’s the biggest factor l turning him into Yordan Alvarez instead of Luis Arraez

 

Just recollection. I think I made a few posts about it. And here I replied to John where he mentions it's at the 23rd percentile on June 28.

 

Compare him to Shohei.... realistically the only meaningful difference in Shohei vs Vlad is the LA Sweet Spot.... shohei 84th percentile, Vlad ... 23rd percentile.

 

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/shohei-ohtani-660271?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb

[John_Havok]

You can look at his LA by time period on Fangraphs though

 

season: 6.5 degrees

season up to May 31: 5.9 degrees (11.6% barrel rate)

June 1 to present: 7.3 degrees (14.3% barrel rate)

just July: 12.2 degrees, 17.6% barrel rate

 

Or use this.... didnt know this existed.

[max silver]

Or use this.... didnt know this existed.

 

Statcast search is the tool you need for this. It's a little finicky to utilize compared to Fangraphs but it provides more granular data, including the ability to sort expected stats over specified time frames. The best way I've found to change the included statistics is using the "change included stats" tab on the bottom of the page.

 

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_search

[Terminator]

Very surprised at how many of you are fine throwing 250-300M at a fat defensive butcher 1B with a career 132 wRC+. He'll be 27 when the extension kicks in. This type of contract, for this type of player, has typically been a sunk cost by like the first third of the deal. I could see if we had reason to believe he was going to be more of a 150-160 wRC+ guy over at least the first half of the deal, but he hasn't been that player and doesn't project to be. Very Blue Jays to get tunnel vision on this one guy instead of focusing on what else competent management (fingers crossed) could do with 300M.

 

I think you are probably right but he's on month+ heater right now so the fan in everyone wants to dream about a 10 year extension where we get the 5+ WAR version of Vlad.

 

I wonder if Vlad would be open to a Dodger-style deferment where he technically becomes the highest paid 1B in the game but in reality he is getting closer to Matt Olson money. A deal like that could possibly appease all parties and keep him in TO.

[Laika]

I think you are probably right but he's on month+ heater right now so the fan in everyone wants to dream about a 10 year extension where we get the 5+ WAR version of Vlad.

 

I wonder if Vlad would be open to a Dodger-style deferment where he technically becomes the highest paid 1B in the game but in reality he is getting closer to Matt Olson money. A deal like that could possibly appease all parties and keep him in TO.

 

Do this and put him in LF

 

I have already emailed Ross with these ideas

 

My friend's cousin's dog walker's husband's niece's best friend's therapist's ex-common law partner's step-son goes to the same pickle ball court as Shapiro's kids so I have connections

[John_Havok]

Do this and put him in LF

 

I have already emailed Ross with these ideas

 

My friend's cousin's dog walker's husband's niece's best friend's therapist's ex-common law partner's step-son goes to the same pickle ball court as Shapiro's kids so I have connections

 

You know Jack too? What are the odds....

[Olerud363]

You can look at his LA by time period on Fangraphs though

 

season: 6.5 degrees

season up to May 31: 5.9 degrees (11.6% barrel rate)

June 1 to present: 7.3 degrees (14.3% barrel rate)

just July: 12.2 degrees, 17.6% barrel rate

 

And none of this changes his value since since June 1st because his walk rate went from 15% to 5% in the same period.

 

Hey maybe some day he'll put it all together again, and he is having his second best season, but still a shadow of Ohtani, Soto, Judge and his 2021 self.

 

Some may like 30/30 Vlad (30 walks 30 homers), some may like prime Yandy Diaz Vlad, the latter is a little better by math.

 

I think most people assume that he's not really a 15% walk rate guy, or 5%, more like 10% and when he gets back there with the power it will be great...

 

But he's fooled us before. Maybe just randomness but so weird his walk rate collapsed when the power returned...

 

Like he's not quite an elite hitter really and when he was patient some timing thing was off... and maybe to get the timing back he has to start earlier or something so the walk rate collapses...

 

Or maybe it is random and he will be awesome awesome going forward and sign with the Blue Jays instead of Red Sox and bring 15 more years of joy to all the boys and girls in the GTA and Rogers Sports Net broadcasting zone.

[Spanky99]

Step 1 sign him in his current form (3 WAR fat 1B) for 10/$200

Step 2 make him a LF, this instantly turns him into a 4 WAR funny LF (he will be no worse than Davis Schneider, his arm is better, and he sucks at 1B anyway)

Step 3 solve the offensive riddle that he is so he is 140+ wRC+ forever

 

profit, ez

 

this guy will end his career as a Manny Ramirez type, universally beloved, and go into Cooperstown with a Blue Jay hat because of this process.

 

I'd be down for this... 20 AAV, think he'd do it? I feel that's light to keep him here.

[Terminator]

Do this and put him in LF

 

I have already emailed Ross with these ideas

 

My friend's cousin's dog walker's husband's niece's best friend's therapist's ex-common law partner's step-son goes to the same pickle ball court as Shapiro's kids so I have connections

 

His defense is weird. Most of the metrics have rated him fine at 1B since he started playing it in 2020. The exception is OAA which thinks he SUCKS at 1B the past two years even though the other metrics still think he's okay. If you look at his plot the past two years it looks like he sucks when he has to make a play where it involves feeding the pitcher: https://shorturl.at/IcI48. That seems to track the eye test.

 

But otherwise his plot looks ok, including on plays where he has to move back (also tracks the eye test as he seems ok when chasing down pop ups). His sprint speed is close to league average and his arm is well above average. Maybe he would be be okay in LF? Heck, maybe he's even better at 3B than he is at 1B. He has the arm for it and he doesn't have to feed the pitcher. Metrics were fine in a SSS.

 

Sounds kind of crazy but we are now living in a world where Spencer Horwitz is an above average 2B so I would definitely consider Vlad in LF.

[Spanky99]

His defense is weird. Most of the metrics have rated him fine at 1B since he started playing it in 2020. The exception is OAA which thinks he SUCKS at 1B the past two years even though the other metrics still think he's okay. If you look at his plot the past two years it looks like he sucks when he has to make a play where it involves feeding the pitcher: https://shorturl.at/IcI48. That seems to track the eye test.

 

But otherwise his plot looks ok, including on plays where he has to move back (also tracks the eye test as he seems ok when chasing down pop ups). His sprint speed is close to league average and his arm is well above average. Maybe he would be be okay in LF? Heck, maybe he's even better at 3B than he is at 1B. He has the arm for it and he doesn't have to feed the pitcher. Metrics were fine in a SSS.

 

Sounds kind of crazy but we are now living in a world where Spencer Horwitz is an above average 2B so I would definitely consider Vlad in LF.

 

I think Tom Tango and John Havok discussed D on that thread when he passed by, honestly, I thought if he couldn't stick at 3B, they'd have him moved to the OF the following year in ST, but they ultimately moved him to 1B the dumbasses.

[glory]