General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2024)

[Laika]

I haven't been keeping track of EVs as much lately as I've been busy with work and honestly not following as closely as other years because of the mediocre boring team.

 

However I used to check the EV box scores every night for anything odd. Curious if other people have caught weird things.

 

The weirdest one I've seen this year is a Vlad fly ball out in Kansas City that was like 109 mph 31 degrees. That should go 440 but it went 390. Not sure if it was a EV misreading, bad spin, or a weird dead ball (like maybe in a batch some are deader than others).

 

Anybody else notice any other weird ones? How do Judge and Soto dominate? Their EVs are similar to Vlad's. Just such a weird thing that Vlad can't keep up with them (or even with Schneider and Varsho at least in terms of homers).

 

we will find out later in Vlad's career that he was corking his bad or something super dumb and that was ruining the trajectory

[Brownie19]

I haven't been keeping track of EVs as much lately as I've been busy with work and honestly not following as closely as other years because of the mediocre boring team.

 

However I used to check the EV box scores every night for anything odd. Curious if other people have caught weird things.

 

The weirdest one I've seen this year is a Vlad fly ball out in Kansas City that was like 109 mph 31 degrees. That should go 440 but it went 390. Not sure if it was a EV misreading, bad spin, or a weird dead ball (like maybe in a batch some are deader than others).

 

Anybody else notice any other weird ones? How do Judge and Soto dominate? Their EVs are similar to Vlad's. Just such a weird thing that Vlad can't keep up with them (or even with Schneider and Varsho at least in terms of homers).

 

Yes - there's been several discussions over the last few years about how Vlad's flyballs don't go as far as other players. Nobody knows why. Must be spin or something. It's kind of infuriating.

[Terminator]

I haven't been keeping track of EVs as much lately as I've been busy with work and honestly not following as closely as other years because of the mediocre boring team.

 

However I used to check the EV box scores every night for anything odd. Curious if other people have caught weird things.

 

The weirdest one I've seen this year is a Vlad fly ball out in Kansas City that was like 109 mph 31 degrees. That should go 440 but it went 390. Not sure if it was a EV misreading, bad spin, or a weird dead ball (like maybe in a batch some are deader than others).

 

Anybody else notice any other weird ones? How do Judge and Soto dominate? Their EVs are similar to Vlad's. Just such a weird thing that Vlad can't keep up with them (or even with Schneider and Varsho at least in terms of homers).

 

Maybe he doesn't "cut" the ball as well as other guys? If you cut the ball you aim center to bottom half of the ball and when cutting it properly it creates backspin which helps the ball stay in the air longer.

[Brownie19]

KK was so damn good last year. 2.8 fWAR and 3.9 bWAR. His batting line was a lot of fluff though. Seems like they got a best case scenario last year and paid a bit of a premium for it this year and now they are on the lower end of his outcomes.

 

And even with bringing him back, we really need another OF. One that can at least share time with KK but ideally a full-time player with a good stick. Then lock in IKF at 3B and Schneider at 2B (great stick for a 2B). That would make the lineup look a lot better without sacrificing too much defense.

 

Yeah - I love KK a player, but that never seemed like a good fit. It's not like it was terrible value. Bader signed for the same amount, coming off a much shittier year, Heyward got $9M, Whit got $8M. We could have gone with like Hunter Renfroe or Joey Gallo or tried to lure McCutchen here, but these guys all f***ing suck.

 

There was Teo at $23M or you use your magical crystal ball and get Profar for $1M....or you had to sign clubhouse cancers who can't play defense like Winker or Pham I guess? The other option was to trade for someone. The farm system is pretty grim, so I suspect the Jays felt more comfortable bringing KK back instead of going the trade route. It has not worked.

[Eat My Shatkins]

Even of they sign Teo instead of KK all they get is an extra 1 fWAR to this point for an extra $9.9 million and that's assuming Teo would have take the same 1 year deal with the Jays which we know he wouldn't because he said so when the Dodgers were in town. He wanted a multi year deal from the Jays.

 

Maybe they squeeze a little more value out of Varsho to this point because he's fulltime CF too

[Abomination]

Yes - there's been several discussions over the last few years about how Vlad's flyballs don't go as far as other players. Nobody knows why. Must be spin or something. It's kind of infuriating.

 

Vlad hits fly balls?

[Stangstag]

If the ball is in fact dead this year, I think Turner may have been impacted the most out of anyone. He's got 4 balls off the very upper part of the fence. Close enough to where another 1% in distance (or even less) and they are gone.

 

If you click on his statcast page, you kind of wonder how they didn't go out based on where they are on the map:

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/justin-turner-457759?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb

 

Remember when Pete Alonso accused MLB of altering the balls year to year?? MLB using dead balls for this upcoming FA class would make sense.... some big names like Bregman, Soto, Alonso, Goldy, Bellinger, etc.

[Stangstag]

KK was so damn good last year. 2.8 fWAR and 3.9 bWAR. His batting line was a lot of fluff though. Seems like they got a best case scenario last year and paid a bit of a premium for it this year and now they are on the lower end of his outcomes.

 

And even with bringing him back, we really need another OF. One that can at least share time with KK but ideally a full-time player with a good stick. Then lock in IKF at 3B and Schneider at 2B (great stick for a 2B). That would make the lineup look a lot better without sacrificing too much defense.

 

I really didn't like bringing back KK. Like you say, we got the best possible outcome in 2023 and we had to pay MORE for him this year, when we knew we needed more offense

[Olerud363]

we will find out later in Vlad's career that he was corking his bad or something super dumb and that was ruining the trajectory

 

Not sure if the EV and LA data just isn't reliable, and I am glad Vladdy hit a spectacular blast to help our great Blue Jays team in the 8 team WC3 race

 

but...

 

EV=103 LA=33 distance = 356?

 

Seems a little low so thought I'd look at some similar hits from the yesterday

 

s*** dudes. Check out this random game between LA Dodgers and Pittsburgh

 

Ohtani EV=105 LA = 32 distance = 415

McCuthecn EV = 93 LA = 33 distance = 357

Andy Page EV = 101 LA = 37 distance = 392

 

If Vladdy's fly balls don't go as far as they should because of stupid spin then his expected average and OPS is just crap and he is getting what he deserves

[Olerud363]

Not sure if the EV and LA data just isn't reliable, and I am glad Vladdy hit a spectacular blast to help our great Blue Jays team in the 8 team WC3 race

 

but...

 

EV=103 LA=33 distance = 356?

 

 

In 2021 a Vladdy oppo, same spot, same EV, 28 degrees went 395 and hit the second deck ...

 

Ball different, but that doesn't explain everything. Other players are getting distance still...

 

Ohtani, Judge and Vladdy all hit it 105 mph 30 degrees. What are the distances?

 

420, 420, and 375. lol

[hanton]

If the ball is in fact dead this year, I think Turner may have been impacted the most out of anyone. He's got 4 balls off the very upper part of the fence. Close enough to where another 1% in distance (or even less) and they are gone.

 

If you click on his statcast page, you kind of wonder how they didn't go out based on where they are on the map:

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/justin-turner-457759?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb

 

or xx% chance of it going over vs hitting the ball on the ground zero chance.

 

his hitting style is to get the ball in the air over the infielders for either base hits or home runs.

[Jays24]

Vlad hits fly balls?

 

Hit 2 nice oppo flyballs today so far today lol

[glory]

I really didn't like bringing back KK. Like you say, we got the best possible outcome in 2023 and we had to pay MORE for him this year, when we knew we needed more offense

 

Yeah the KK signing was the most egregious one of the off season, with Turner 2nd. IKF, while an overpay, at least made sense given positional need. The Jays literally have no one anywhere in the org who looks like a capable 3B. They had a great defensive CF already in Varsho, and Horowitz in AAA who they could have platooned at DH with a cheap RHB off the bench.

[Orgfiller]

Not sure if the EV and LA data just isn't reliable, and I am glad Vladdy hit a spectacular blast to help our great Blue Jays team in the 8 team WC3 race

 

but...

 

EV=103 LA=33 distance = 356?

 

Seems a little low so thought I'd look at some similar hits from the yesterday

 

s*** dudes. Check out this random game between LA Dodgers and Pittsburgh

 

Ohtani EV=105 LA = 32 distance = 415

McCuthecn EV = 93 LA = 33 distance = 357

Andy Page EV = 101 LA = 37 distance = 392

 

If Vladdy's fly balls don't go as far as they should because of stupid spin then his expected average and OPS is just crap and he is getting what he deserves

 

Almost gotta wonder if his bat is comically small. Like in order to stop drilling the ball into the ground he changed to a lighter bat to give him a few extra mph of bat speed with increased bat control, but now when he demolishes a ball it's just missing some oomph from the decreased bat weight.

[Laika]

Almost gotta wonder if his bat is comically small. Like in order to stop drilling the ball into the ground he changed to a lighter bat to give him a few extra mph of bat speed with increased bat control, but now when he demolishes a ball it's just missing some oomph from the decreased bat weight.

 

smaller bat might cause lower EVs but I don't see how it could or would cause decreased FB distances vs the EV....

 

what a f***show

 

hire a f***ing physicist you dumb org

[AMS528]

I'm sure they did man. It's all probabilities. The current outcome is probably a 15th percentile result, which just really sucks. I doubt any of the data they have suggested there was a high probability that he'd completely fall off the cliff. There was also a probability he bounced back and was a 115-125 wRC+ bat this year. That probability was likely just as high as the probability he'd be a 80 wRC+ hitter.

 

His wRC+ is 83 this year, and I think he's likely to get to 90 by seasons end cause of his batted ball profile. Maybe he won't manage it because of his start.

 

I can't find the article (think it was a fangraphs one from years ago) but I think on average there's something like a 9% drop in hitting performance (by wRC+) during this age range from 30-35 or so.

 

He was at 104 last year, and he suffered a very major decline last year, but if you're just giving him a normal age related decline this year we are talking about like a wRC+ of 94. The other side of that is that he was a really good bat before last year so the projection systems give him a lot of leeway in assuming last year is an anomaly which is fair I suppose. But it wasn't like he massively underperformed his peripherals. His statcast went from solid reds to plenty of middling or below average data points. His exit velocity tanked, he wasn't barrelling it etc.

 

I guess I don't think sub 100 wRC+ was unlikely. He's underperformed that and maybe I'm splitting hairs but that feels like a 35th percentile outcome and I think he's likely to end at like 90wRC+ which is like a 40th percentile outcome.

 

I feel like Kirk and Bo are 15th percentile outcomes.

[Brownie19]

His wRC+ is 83 this year, and I think he's likely to get to 90 by seasons end cause of his batted ball profile. Maybe he won't manage it because of his start.

 

I can't find the article (think it was a fangraphs one from years ago) but I think on average there's something like a 9% drop in hitting performance (by wRC+) during this age range from 30-35 or so.

 

He was at 104 last year, and he suffered a very major decline last year, but if you're just giving him a normal age related decline this year we are talking about like a wRC+ of 94. The other side of that is that he was a really good bat before last year so the projection systems give him a lot of leeway in assuming last year is an anomaly which is fair I suppose. But it wasn't like he massively underperformed his peripherals. His statcast went from solid reds to plenty of middling or below average data points. His exit velocity tanked, he wasn't barrelling it etc.

 

I guess I don't think sub 100 wRC+ was unlikely. He's underperformed that and maybe I'm splitting hairs but that feels like a 35th percentile outcome and I think he's likely to end at like 90wRC+ which is like a 40th percentile outcome.

 

I feel like Kirk and Bo are 15th percentile outcomes.

 

That's fair. I wonder if that 9% drop off is different for "star" players v. your average player. I suspect it is. And you should post most - these are nice logical discussions!

Edited June 6, 2024 by Brownie19

[Brownie19]

Hey - we won a game and got a split today. Team showed a bit of grit. No GDT is a little sad (unless one of the tampon brothers started it, in which case, I won't see it).

[G-Snarls]

Hey - we won a game and got a split today. Team showed a bit of grit. No GDT is a little sad (unless one of the tampon brothers started it, in which case, I won't see it).

 

There was a GDT, yes.

[Eat My Shatkins]

Jays are 17-24 against above .500 teams, them and Boston are tied for the 2nd most games played vs above .500 teams at 41

 

The most is the White Sox at 47

 

The Phillies have played 6 games against above .500 teams

The Dodgers have played 9

[Laika]

Jays are 17-24 against above .500 teams, them and Boston are tied for the 2nd most games played vs above .500 teams at 41

 

The most is the White Sox at 47

 

The Phillies have played 6 games against above .500 teams

The Dodgers have played 9

 

It's a little self fulfilling though innit

 

If you suck then your opponents are more likely to be or become "above .500 teams"

[Eat My Shatkins]

It's a little self fulfilling though innit

 

If you suck then your opponents are more likely to be or become "above .500 teams"

 

The smaller the sample size for sure, sample size is getting up there now though with all the teams over 60 games in.

 

Imagine being the Phillies and having played 63 games now with just 6 of them against teams that are currently above .500

[Brownie19]

It's a little self fulfilling though innit

 

If you suck then your opponents are more likely to be or become "above .500 teams"

 

Agreed, but still crazy to see the Phillies at 6 and White Sox at 47.

[Orgfiller]

Agreed, but still crazy to see the Phillies at 6 and White Sox at 47.

 

The Phillies have been personally responsible for turning a couple of > .500 at the time of play teams into sub .500.

 

Strength of schedule is a thing of course, and it only becomes apparent the longer in the season you go, but as Laika points out, if these teams were worse their % of good teams faced would be much bigger as they’re handing out wins to make them look better.

 

We’re hanging on close to .500 almost entirely on the backs of the White Sox lol.

[Terminator]

Salvaging the split was huge.

 

2 games under .500 with a 3 game set against the A's coming up.

 

[Masterbather]

Salvaging the split was huge.

 

2 games under .500 with a 3 game set against the A's coming up.

 

 

I can totally see the A's kicking our ass. Those West coast trips, they can be rough. Blue jays are generally not migratory.

[Stangstag]

Salvaging the split was huge.

 

2 games under .500 with a 3 game set against the A's coming up.

 

 

The 2024 Blue Jays experience

[Terminator]

I can totally see the A's kicking our ass. Those West coast trips, they can be rough. Blue jays are generally not migratory.

 

Yeah the A's are a little bit better than everyone thought they would be and a 3 game series with them after a game and long flight today won't be walk in the park

 

Would love a sweep to get to a game over .500 but winning the series might be a more realistic goal

[Laika]

3.5 games back with 100 games to go

 

Nobody from KC down to HOU is obviously better than Toronto on paper

 

The playoffs will be easy to make

[Terminator]

3.5 games back with 100 games to go

 

Nobody from KC down to HOU is obviously better than Toronto on paper

 

The playoffs will be easy to make

 

Oh hell yeah

 

Reading posts like this gives me a dopamine hit similar to when I dabbled with nose beers in the 80s