General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2024)

[Olerud363]

The organization's overreaction to one tough playoff loss in 2022 may be the biggest mistake they ever made!

 

Alternitive reality

 

Moreno + something not Gurriel for Varsho

No Teoscar trade

 

rf Springer .260 27 70

ss Bo Bichette .310 24 80

1b Vlad .280 36 102

lf Hernandez .275 30 100

dh Gurriel .281 24 83

3b Chapman .225 27 77

cf Varsho .230 27 76

c Kirk/Jansen .280 22 80

2b Schneider .276 17 42

 

This makes some very simple assumptions

 

1. Everyone is cool and relaxed and excited to put on the homerun jacket, so basically they get 5 extra homers each, except Vlad who gets 10 more because who loves the homerun jacket more than anyone.

2. Schneider doesn't get sat down after going 0 for 7 or something. Comes up in August, plays everday, he hits so many homers everyone loves him because they love putting homerun jacket on others, thus J. Schneider just can't ever take him out of lineup and he works his way out of slump using fun.

 

This is actually pretty conservative modelling. The effect of fun could be even greater but even above is an awesome run scoring team with fun.

[Brownie19]

You have so little self awareness that it's astounding. You are the poster child for ascribing all of Atkin's successes to "luck" so there's no reason to be patting yourself on the back.

 

Is he still obsessed with everything I say? How f***ing sad.

 

Let it be known I was a huge AA fan and still am. Pretty sure I've said that a few times. Unlike some, I can objectively look at things and point out that Devon Travis was good for 2 seasons....the only 2 seasons the AA regime was competitive. I can also notice Colabello was only good and roided up for 1 season and it was the 1 year we REALLY needed him (Smoak wasn't good then). AA rolled Osuna out there as our closer in 2015 as a 20 year old rookie and he was immediately dominant. We got 28+ starts from 4 starters (Dickey, Estrada, Buehrle and Hutchinson....a rather sad/boring, yet healthy rotation that year before we got Price). It was glorious watching Jose, EE, Martin and JD dominate (with Pillar patrolling CF), but AA needed several risky moves to work out (and mask that we gave 127 innings to Delabar, Schultz, Jeff Francis and Tepera, who combined for -1.1 WAR and 428 PA's to an 85 wRC+ Ryan Goins (in what was his career year)).

 

I loved AA and I loved the 2015 Jays, but it's not difficult to see that SEVERAL things broke right for this team that year - including the Rangers making like 17 errors in the 7th inning of Game 5.

Edited May 7, 2024 by Brownie19

[Stangstag]

I do recall the majority of this board hated the HR jacket and hated all the fun the players were having. Most wanted a team focused on winning over fun.

 

I think most of us just hated seeing the homerun jacket when someone hit a solo homer while we were losing a game 8-2

[Stangstag]

Oh boy, more AA discussion

[BCZ]

Call up the replacements - replacements! Replacements! Replacements!

[BCZ]

Poor turner has to end his career in a garbage can

[Stangstag]

Poor turner has to end his career in a garbage can

 

Not exactly, he’s definitely a trade candidate if we’re out of it.

[Nexii]

I wonder if something like a coaching WAR could be calculated. Expected WAR +/- actual. Probably would have to take out injuries, that's assuming they're mostly luck. Might be complex where good players get promoted and bad ones demoted.

 

I feel like often draft pick # is a bit of a cop-out for poor development - Orioles for example a lot of others say just got good draft picks. But were they also better than average at development? Wouldn't each draft pick position have an estimated future WAR?

[M.E.]

What would you think of Joe Madden to come in and manage? I don’t get that he would be a puppet and may be a veteran presence versus the first time manager path they have been going. Still need Atkins gone though.

[BCZ]

Should have traded high on mr babip (Bichette)

[BCZ]

Pillar 2 bombs today - straight trade pillar for springer???

[MikeM3]

How does Springer lose 20% of pull % in 2 years. Did he lose 15 mph of bat speed?

[Stangstag]

How does Springer lose 20% of pull % in 2 years. Did he lose 15 mph of bat speed?

 

Might be that his legs are f***ed, similar to Vlad

[L54]

Probably an organizational philosophy

[Spanky99]

Latest News

May 7, 2024 5:43 PM EDT

 

Green (shoulder) has progressed to playing long toss, and the team is hopeful he can throw off a mound later this week, Arden Zwelling of Sportsnet.ca reports.

 

Analysis

Green has been on the injured list since April 20 due to a teres major strain in his right shoulder. A clearer timeline on his return may emerge once he gets back on a mound, but he figures to still be at least a week or two away from rejoining Toronto's bullpen.

...

[Laika]

How does Springer lose 20% of pull % in 2 years. Did he lose 15 mph of bat speed?

 

It seems like it

 

He doesn't even hit deep flyballs anymore. His maxEV this year is 109, way below his typical max of like 116

[BCZ]

The core of this team is trash. A complete rebuild is necessary which will take 5+ years.

[BigCecil]

Berrios gets POTM and most of the attention it feels like, but Kooch has actually been the better arm and worth about 3 times the WAR. Has to be an extension negotiation candidate.

[Stangstag]

Berrios gets POTM and most of the attention it feels like, but Kooch has actually been the better arm and worth about 3 times the WAR. Has to be an extension negotiation candidate.

 

I’d like to bring Kooch back on another short term deal, not sure if there’s a point though depending on how we finish in the standings

[Brownie19]

Berrios gets POTM and most of the attention it feels like, but Kooch has actually been the better arm and worth about 3 times the WAR. Has to be an extension negotiation candidate.

 

Kikucci is 33 this year. There is no point in extending him unless you get a sweetheart deal that increases his trade value. He should be traded this year to a contender. He's going to be approaching 40 and returning to Japan by the time we're contending again.

[BigCecil]

I’d like to bring Kooch back on another short term deal, not sure if there’s a point though depending on how we finish in the standings

 

Fair point. The price of pitching has increased. His 3/36 deal price has gone up and it wasn't a steal at that, due to '22 results. So far over term he has been worth net 3.3 WAR. Not bad.

 

If we are in semi rebuild not really much point. There is some risk he regresses to more like 2nd half of '21 or '22 to consider as well.

[glory]

Berrios gets POTM and most of the attention it feels like, but Kooch has actually been the better arm and worth about 3 times the WAR. Has to be an extension negotiation candidate.

 

He's a Boras guy. I doubt an extension is even possible. Boras got him $36 million coming off 3 subpar seasons. Now that he's actually breaking out, I can't imagine he's going to do anything except try to maximize his last big contract. Would have been nice if this break out happened in 2022 rather than the final year of his contract, but either way, it's a success story for the org as they definitely paid him based on potential rather than performance when they signed him to the contract.

[Stangstag]

He's a Boras guy. I doubt an extension is even possible. Boras got him $36 million coming off 3 subpar seasons. Now that he's actually breaking out, I can't imagine he's going to do anything except try to maximize his last big contract. Would have been nice if this break out happened in 2022 rather than the final year of his contract, but either way, it's a success story for the org as they definitely paid him based on potential rather than performance when they signed him to the contract.

 

He was pretty f***ing good in 2023 but yeah year 1 was a disaster.

 

Actually both of our best pitchers this season were absolute dumpster fires in 2022.

[Brownie19]

Fair point. The price of pitching has increased. His 3/36 deal price has gone up and it wasn't a steal at that, due to '22 results. So far over term he has been worth net 3.3 WAR. Not bad.

 

If we are in semi rebuild not really much point. There is some risk he regresses to more like 2nd half of '21 or '22 to consider as well.

 

Trading him now is 100% the best move. If you extend him, given his age, he could turn into a pumpkin pretty quick. No need to take on that risk - assuming he isn't going to come at some discount.

[BCZ]

Sell high on whoever you can... which is not much... Kikuchi

[BCZ]

Maybe Davis Schneider... that's it lol

[BCZ]

Oh maybe Turner

[Laika]

Oh maybe Turner

 

Maybe Davis Schneider... that's it lol

 

Sell high on whoever you can... which is not much... Kikuchi

 

Kikuchi, Turner, Varsho, Berrios, Yimi, Jansen

 

Don't see the point in selling Schneider right now.

[Sorrow]

Kikuchi, Turner, Varsho, Berrios, Yimi, Jansen

 

Don't see the point in selling Schneider right now.

 

If Bassitt and Gausman turn it around I'd look to move both as well, Gausman likely has some good trade value if he has 5-6 weeks of being vintage Gausman but with his control he may be worth keeping. Kiermaier might fetch something along the lines of a Santiago Espinal like prospect down the road. If Bichette gets hot and has a good stretch leading up to the All Star Break I'd consider moving him and I'd do the same with Guerrero. If Jansen is open to a long term deal I'd try and sign him but if not I'd trade him.

[BCZ]

Kikuchi, Turner, Varsho, Berrios, Yimi, Jansen

 

Don't see the point in selling Schneider right now.

 

Varsho doesn't have enough value. 1 month doesn't make up for an entire 1 year.

 

I like Jansen too much to ever sell him.

 

Berrios yeah.