AL Beasts of the East - Division Race '23

[BigCecil]

Not sure if it will get hit but with all 5 teams over .500 so far, I thought a thread dedicated to the AL East Division race makes sense. Its a special Division in baseball in 2023. Better than just using "Around Baseball".

 

Last night BAL comes back on the Yanks from 5-1 down to win 9-6. Their offense, D and pen is legit. Rutschman leading AL in BBs.

[Olerud363]

Not sure if it will get hit but with all 5 teams over .500 so far, I thought a thread dedicated to the AL East Division race makes sense. Its a special Division in baseball in 2023. Better than just using "Around Baseball".

 

Last night BAL comes back on the Yanks from 5-1 down to win 9-6. Their offense, D and pen is legit. Rutschman leading AL in BBs.

 

Here is an example of why the Orioles are a great, great organization. They traded their closer and got another guy, Yennier Cano or something who is now an even better reliever than Lopez, another guy they got Cade Povich or something has 55 ks in 35 innings at aa. And I haven't even looked at the other 2 guys they got in that trade. Well I just did. Don't worry it's just an 18 year old lottery ticket and a 22 year old lottery ticket...

[John_Havok]

Cano definitely changed something, he was pure dogshit for them and Minnesota last season.

 

LIke 10 walks per 9 dogshit.

 

Whatever tweak they made, it worked really well.

[BigCecil]

Cano definitely changed something, he was pure dogshit for them and Minnesota last season.

 

LIke 10 walks per 9 dogshit.

 

Whatever tweak they made, it worked really well.

 

Dropped arm angle a lot. Doesnt always work but worked for his offspeed.

[Olerud363]

Not sure if it will get hit but with all 5 teams over .500 so far, I thought a thread dedicated to the AL East Division race makes sense. Its a special Division in baseball in 2023. Better than just using "Around Baseball".

 

Last night BAL comes back on the Yanks from 5-1 down to win 9-6. Their offense, D and pen is legit. Rutschman leading AL in BBs.

 

AL East Payrolls according to USA Today

 

NY Yankees $276,999,872

Toronto Blue Jays $209,938,983

Boston Red Sox $181,207,484

Tampa Bay Rays $73,184,811

Baltimore Orioles $60,722,300

[Laika]

Toronto is just mediocre at everything. It's incredibly frustrating.

 

Mediocre coaching.

Mediocre analytics.

Mediocre managing.

Mediocre drafting.

Mediocre development.

Mediocre trading.

 

The franchise is mid.

 

The only do a couple of things well. Those are probably spending money and executing the business side of things (Shapiro is godly).

 

This is starting to feel like the Ricciardi era. Except instead of winning 87 games and missing the playoffs they win 91 games and sneak into the playoffs only to get bounces in the minimum number of games.

[Olerud363]

Toronto is just mediocre at everything. It's incredibly frustrating.

 

Mediocre coaching.

Mediocre analytics.

Mediocre managing.

Mediocre drafting.

Mediocre development.

Mediocre trading.

 

The franchise is mid.

 

The only do a couple of things well. Those are probably spending money and executing the business side of things (Shapiro is godly).

 

This is starting to feel like the Ricciardi era. Except instead of winning 87 games and missing the playoffs they win 91 games and sneak into the playoffs only to get bounces in the minimum number of games.

 

# Playoff wins Olerud/Alomar Blue Jays = 17

# Playoff wins Bautista/Donaldson Blue Jays = 10

# Playoff wins Delgado/Wells Blue Jays = 0

# Playoff wins Vladdy/Bichette Blue Jays = 0

 

Will Vladdy Bichette era get even 1 playoff win? Will they move to 3rd place?

[John_Havok]

# Playoff wins Olerud/Alomar Blue Jays = 17

# Playoff wins Bautista/Donaldson Blue Jays = 10

# Playoff wins Delgado/Wells Blue Jays = 0

# Playoff wins Vladdy/Bichette Blue Jays = 0

 

Will Vladdy Bichette era get even 1 playoff win? Will they move to 3rd place?

 

Technically, they're already tied for 3rd.

[Terminator]

Toronto is just mediocre at everything. It's incredibly frustrating.

 

Mediocre coaching.

Mediocre analytics.

Mediocre managing.

Mediocre drafting.

Mediocre development.

Mediocre trading.

 

The franchise is mid.

 

The only do a couple of things well. Those are probably spending money and executing the business side of things (Shapiro is godly).

 

This is starting to feel like the Ricciardi era. Except instead of winning 87 games and missing the playoffs they win 91 games and sneak into the playoffs only to get bounces in the minimum number of games.

 

The trades and FA signings seem to be pretty good considering neither of those is ever going to be perfect.

[Laika]

The trades and FA signings seem to be pretty good considering neither of those is ever going to be perfect.

 

they were doing okay on trades

 

then they went and traded gabriel f***ing moreno plus a kicker for a platoon player

[Omar]

Shapiro has his heart set on being the next commissioner; on field performance of his team is secondary to his career aspirations.

[Spanky99]

they were doing okay on trades

 

then they went and traded gabriel f***ing moreno plus a kicker for a platoon player

 

That you loved.

[Olerud363]

they were doing okay on trades

 

then they went and traded gabriel f***ing moreno plus a kicker for a platoon player

 

Stroman, the 5th pick and 140 million for Berrios was a very bad trade/draft/sign sequence. 3 related transactions bad at each aspect.

[Terminator]

they were doing okay on trades

 

then they went and traded gabriel f***ing moreno plus a kicker for a platoon player

 

Yeah trading a Top 5 prospect plus a decent kicker for someone who Ernie Clement just pinch hit for isn't a good look lol

[John_Havok]

The disrespect to Ernie Clement here is alarming

[glory]

Toronto is just mediocre at everything. It's incredibly frustrating.

 

Mediocre coaching.

Mediocre analytics.

Mediocre managing.

Mediocre drafting.

Mediocre development.

Mediocre trading.

 

The franchise is mid.

 

The only do a couple of things well. Those are probably spending money and executing the business side of things (Shapiro is godly).

 

This is starting to feel like the Ricciardi era. Except instead of winning 87 games and missing the playoffs they win 91 games and sneak into the playoffs only to get bounces in the minimum number of games.

 

I was just thinking how much the current team/situation reminds me of the JP years. Farm system is ass cheeks with Tiedemann playing the role of Snider as being the only guy in the system currently that the team can pin their hopes on (hopefully it ends up better than Snider did), and the team looks like it's going to be a high 80s win team barring a big 2nd half run. At least JP had some excuse for having to work around a pretty low/modest payroll, while Atkins built this team while paying the luxury tax.

 

I don't know. Maybe we overstated how good this 2023 team is/was. I suspect they'll still end up being pretty good (whether it's enough to get a playoff spot with more good teams this season remains to be seen), but the short and long term prognosis looks pretty grim. If I'm Shapiro, I'm replacing Atkins with Click as soon as I can.

[Omar]

 

I don't know. Maybe we overstated how good this 2023 team is/was. I suspect they'll still end up being pretty good (whether it's enough to get a playoff spot with more good teams this season remains to be seen), but the short and long term prognosis looks pretty grim. If I'm Shapiro, I'm replacing Atkins with Click as soon as I can.

 

Maybe we understated how good the rest of the East would be.

Edited May 25, 2023 by Omar

[Eat My Shatkins]

The Orioles look like their rebuild.has zoomed past ours, they still have an unbelievably stacked prospect pool and a $60 million payroll

 

The Rays....well, they're the godamn fcuking Rays

 

The Yanks...well, they're the godamn fcuking Yanks

 

The Red Sox, they're supposed to suck but pushed the Jays s*** in at Fenway.

 

Jays might be in trouble haha

 

Hopefully they get it figured out. Something is rotten in Denmark. They shouldn't be getting owned like this.

[Jays333]

Here is an example of why the Orioles are a great, great organization. They traded their closer and got another guy, Yennier Cano or something who is now an even better reliever than Lopez, another guy they got Cade Povich or something has 55 ks in 35 innings at aa. And I haven't even looked at the other 2 guys they got in that trade. Well I just did. Don't worry it's just an 18 year old lottery ticket and a 22 year old lottery ticket...

 

I would hardly call the O's a great, great organization. Were they not the most unsuccessful team in the league for 5 seasons to acquire all their talent? Don't all O's fans hate their owners cause they never pay their homegrown talent. Id be willing to bet in 5 years the O's will be back in the basement cause they didn't want to pay all the guys currently leading the team.

 

However that doesn't take away the fact that it sure seems like Atkins has sold us a mirage, making us all think this was a world series contending team. I think we got worse with the Teo and Varsho trade. We have the same issues as last year. Crap bullpen and mediocre starting pitching. Good offense that lacks consistency. The whole focus on improving the defense is not showing either. Farm system has no reinforcements in sight outside of Tiedmenn.

 

I think we are a mediocre run organization, better run than the O's for sure. Get rid of Atkins and maybe the Bo/Vladdy era can be salvaged and this might become a "good" run organization. Maybe im just over reacting and we will get it together. But it sure looks like to me that this team is not nearly as good as most of us thought.

[Carlos Danger]

We got booted in two games in 2020, didn’t make it in 2021, and got booted in two games in 2022. That was all with Teo and LGR. So we needed to do something to change the status quo, it was not working.

 

In addition, with all this chest puffing about the AL East and crappy AL central, the Indians beat us 5-2 in series play last year. No assumptions we would have won the division prior to balanced schedules even if we were in the central.

 

Maybe this is like the s***** start in Moneyball prior to the A’s running off 22 in a row. If we trade for Rincon at the deadline you know it to be true…

[BigCecil]

Big hit off Clay Holmes by Hayes. Os go up 3-0 on the Yanks in the 8th. Normally I would be very happy about this. Lol.

[Olerud363]

I would hardly call the O's a great, great organization. Were they not the most unsuccessful team in the league for 5 seasons to acquire all their talent? Don't all O's fans hate their owners cause they never pay their homegrown talent. Id be willing to bet in 5 years the O's will be back in the basement cause they didn't want to pay all the guys currently leading the team.

 

However that doesn't take away the fact that it sure seems like Atkins has sold us a mirage, making us all think this was a world series contending team. I think we got worse with the Teo and Varsho trade. We have the same issues as last year. Crap bullpen and mediocre starting pitching. Good offense that lacks consistency. The whole focus on improving the defense is not showing either. Farm system has no reinforcements in sight outside of Tiedmenn.

 

I think we are a mediocre run organization, better run than the O's for sure. Get rid of Atkins and maybe the Bo/Vladdy era can be salvaged and this might become a "good" run organization. Maybe im just over reacting and we will get it together. But it sure looks like to me that this team is not nearly as good as most of us thought.

 

Issue with this narrative is that the Os haven't called up any of their high first rounders yet except for Rutchman. Their current really good team is entirely built on developing lower round picks, savy trades, getting the most out of guys.

 

Current Orioles - mostly built from saviness and only a 60 million dollar payroll

 

Future Orioles - several prospects hitting .320 .420 .620 to come, one 'greatest ever' prospect hitting .390 .500 .700 to come, payroll could be increased by 100 million (this market isn't Tampa Bay and still drew a million+ in their horrible seasons).

[Olerud363]

Issue with this narrative is that the Os haven't called up any of their high first rounders yet except for Rutchman. Their current really good team is entirely built on developing lower round picks, savy trades, getting the most out of guys.

 

Current Orioles - mostly built from saviness and only a 60 million dollar payroll

 

Future Orioles - several prospects hitting .320 .420 .620 to come, one 'greatest ever' prospect hitting .390 .500 .700 to come, payroll could be increased by 100 million (this market isn't Tampa Bay and still drew a million+ in their horrible seasons).

 

 

Also - when I say 'great, great organization' I'm not talking about the last 20 years history of the organization just the current regime, Mike Elias, graduate of Yale, graduate of Houston Astros, certified genius, ethical, an alpha, I think he also has a side kick.

 

This whole 'they sucked for 5 years in a row' thing is wrong. First they were good in 2016 and ran out the same guys in 2017 and were neck in neck with the Jays. In 2018 they collapsed unexptedly, and then Elias was hired in December 2018. Both Jays and Orioles sucked in 2019. Orioles more and got a better draft. Did it matter that the Jays won 67 instead of 57 that year?

 

The differences start with how they handled Covid. Of course going in to 2020 no one knew Covid would happen. Jays started building for a run with the Ryu then Springer signings, and did make some savy pickups (Ray, Semien). Orioles held off on really trying, assessing that revenue would be down in 2020 and 2021 anyway.

 

So current regime really only tanked 3 years, 2 of them Covid years.

[jaysblue]

Shapiro has his heart set on being the next commissioner; on field performance of his team is secondary to his career aspirations.

 

Shapiro from a business perspective has been one of the best Presidents this team has had. Blue Jays are definitely generating a lot of money and he's made huge upgrades to the in-game experience which will pay dividends, even if this team on the field is just mediocre.

 

I think Shapiro definitely has his eyes sets on being the next commissioner. He definitely has the resume for it and would do a great job!

[jaysblue]

I was just thinking how much the current team/situation reminds me of the JP years. Farm system is ass cheeks with Tiedemann playing the role of Snider as being the only guy in the system currently that the team can pin their hopes on (hopefully it ends up better than Snider did), and the team looks like it's going to be a high 80s win team barring a big 2nd half run. At least JP had some excuse for having to work around a pretty low/modest payroll, while Atkins built this team while paying the luxury tax.

 

I don't know. Maybe we overstated how good this 2023 team is/was. I suspect they'll still end up being pretty good (whether it's enough to get a playoff spot with more good teams this season remains to be seen), but the short and long term prognosis looks pretty grim. If I'm Shapiro, I'm replacing Atkins with Click as soon as I can.

 

Yeah I think it's a bit of both. Also I think none of us or the front office expected the AL East to be this good. A lot of us thought Boston was only going to win 70 something games, and the Orioles were going to be maybe an 85 win team because they never made any big additions. Yankees didn't look like they were going to be as elite but they still were going to be good. Rays probably along the same lines as last season 90 something win team instead of what they're on pace for this season.

[Olerud363]

Yeah I think it's a bit of both. Also I think none of us or the front office expected the AL East to be this good. A lot of us thought Boston was only going to win 70 something games, and the Orioles were going to be maybe an 85 win team because they never made any big additions. Yankees didn't look like they were going to be as elite but they still were going to be good. Rays probably along the same lines as last season 90 something win team instead of what they're on pace for this season.

 

The front office and the high (a.k.a. low) performance team fell behind somehow. Tampa Bays numbers are unexplainable.

 

Did Tampa bay get even one new position player? I just went through their team stats and every player was also on the 650 run .377 slugging team last year.

 

They've improved their slugging percentage 120 points with 0 new players. Honestly what the hell is going on? Every single player has improved dramatically since last year, out performing projections.

 

Gone from 139 homeruns to on pace for 300 with the same team. Like f***ing honestly. Give us some answers here.

 

Meanwhile our guys, with historically better pedigree and track records, at least for power, are all losing a bit of power.

[Stangstag]

Yeah I think it's a bit of both. Also I think none of us or the front office expected the AL East to be this good. A lot of us thought Boston was only going to win 70 something games, and the Orioles were going to be maybe an 85 win team because they never made any big additions. Yankees didn't look like they were going to be as elite but they still were going to be good. Rays probably along the same lines as last season 90 something win team instead of what they're on pace for this season.

 

Do we... not think this anymore?? Both teams have terrible starting pitching

[Stangstag]

The front office and the high (a.k.a. low) performance team fell behind somehow. Tampa Bays numbers are unexplainable.

 

Did Tampa bay get even one new position player? I just went through their team stats and every player was also on the 650 run .377 slugging team last year.

 

They've improved their slugging percentage 120 points with 0 new players. Honestly what the hell is going on? Every single player has improved dramatically since last year, out performing projections.

 

Gone from 139 homeruns to on pace for 300 with the same team. Like f***ing honestly. Give us some answers here.

 

Meanwhile our guys, with historically better pedigree and track records, at least for power, are all losing a bit of power.

 

They're cheating

[Olerud363]

They're cheating

 

Not discounting that they are cheating but if so how. Do you mean with performance enhancers or sign stealing? If sign stealing how with teams using pitch com?

 

I look at it this way. Cheating works. Get loaded up on roids and amphetamines, and steal signs so you know what pitch is coming, it helps a lot. Is this type of cheating still possible? Cycle right, take the blue pill at the right time (not like Ben Johnson who took the blue pill too close to the Olympics)... can it be done? Hack the pitch com.

 

Or alternatively lets say a smart organization wants to get the benefits of cheating without technically cheating. Superb strength, reflexes like you were on amphetimines, hit pitches like you know what's coming.

 

1. For strength, optimize all workouts, diet, and legal supplements, as to be as strong as possible without technically cheating.

 

2. Instead of amphetamines use all legal alertness aids (coffee, red bull, nicotine, whatever else is legal), optimize sleep patterns to optimize alertness, minimize alcohol.

 

3. In lieu of sign stealing, use advanced pattern recognition (AI you don't even need a complicated one), to analyze sequences in almost real time so guys at the plate have an optimized plan. Perhaps even signal from the dugout what pitch to look for (probably not cheating if not stealing a sign, but just using a data predictor with the input the past pitch sequence).

 

4. Use AI and a video analysis team to figure out when pitchers are tipping.

 

4. Use video and pitch machines for 'early as possible' pitch recognition.

 

5. Massive analysis of pitch and swing mechanics with day to day adjustments.

[TheHurl]

Yeah I think it's a bit of both. Also I think none of us or the front office expected the AL East to be this good. A lot of us thought Boston was only going to win 70 something games, and the Orioles were going to be maybe an 85 win team because they never made any big additions. Yankees didn't look like they were going to be as elite but they still were going to be good. Rays probably along the same lines as last season 90 something win team instead of what they're on pace for this season.

 

Boston was 25-50 against the AL East (16-41 against the Rays, Jays and NYY) and 6 games under .500 overall. I don't think the 2022 sox were anything special, but if they were 9-10 against the Jays they are 2 games behind the Jays in the standings.

 

We can't expect to be an 85% win rate against anyone.

 

I said many times that this was the best 40 man in baseball. No one was projected to be below replacement level. Currently 2 SP and two highly used relievers are. On the offensive side it just happens to be two guys in the same role (utility IF) who are below replacement level. Overall, I am concerned for Kikuchi, Manoah, Cimber and Pop. They need to get at least 2 of those straight, or make trades at the deadline (which sucks for a team not having a great prospect season)