Former Blue Jays Thread

[Spanky99]

Exactly.

 

Teoscar makes $14 mill this season. Swanson makes $1.3 mill. They paid Kiermaier $9 mill for a 2.1 fWAR season. And they got a high-upside arm in Macko. It's a no-brainer smart trade for this FO.

 

Swanson and Kiermaier have 3.1 fWAR this season at less money than Teoscar's 1.9 fWAR.

 

Yup.

[jaysblue]

Well this season was obvious, they got plenty of years service for Swanson but you're forgetting the money saved and acquisition of KK and Macko make that pretty much a no brainer. Excellent trade.

 

Jay, I never criticized the trade. It's still a great trade. Just said it would have been nice to have Teo's bat this season. They did a great job using that money in adding KK. Jays likely took a bit of a hit in 2023 in terms of value but long term if Swanson is a 1-2 WAR reliever and Macko contributes something, it's a great deal for the Jays. I wouldn't say it's "excellent" until we see what Swanson and Macko do in 2024 and 2025.

[Spanky99]

The 2023 Blue Jays would definitely have been a bit better if they didn't do the trade, but that was always going to be the trade-off.

 

Downgrade in 2023 for "years of control" of a pitching prospect who will never make it and a reliever who would not be an athlete in any other sport.

 

 

 

I think if Teoscar never gets traded his WAR this year is much higher. Kind of assuming his s***** first half was due to pressing, etc.

 

Should've picked him up from me dude, you'd be coasting to a title.

[Spanky99]

Jay, I never criticized the trade. It's still a great trade. Just said it would have been nice to have Teo's bat this season. They did a great job using that money in adding KK. Jays likely took a bit of a hit in 2023 in terms of value but long term if Swanson is a 1-2 WAR reliever and Macko contributes something, it's a great deal for the Jays. I wouldn't say it's "excellent" until we see what Swanson and Macko do in 2024 and 2025.

 

Where am I saying you criticized it, just bringing up the money KK and Macko acquisitions as well? I answered your post that Teo hypothetically could've been better, but who cares, deal's done. Now acquiring him at the deadline is different, but the M's weren't throwing in their hat.

[jaysblue]

Where am I saying you criticized it, just bringing up the money KK and Macko acquisitions as well? I answered your post that Teo hypothetically could've been better, but who cares, deal's done. Now acquiring him at the deadline is different, but the M's weren't throwing in their hat.

 

Yeah the trade is done now. Swanson has done a solid job and has added stability to the pen. Will be nice to have him for another two seasons. If he can stay healthy and be a 1-2 WAR reliever, nothing to complain about at all.

[MikeM3]

The SEA is logical. The annoying thing is having to trade your cleanup hitter because you can't find a reliever otherwise.

[jaysblue]

The SEA is logical. The annoying thing is having to trade your cleanup hitter because you can't find a reliever otherwise.

 

Yeah you make a good point Mike. The plus with Swanson is the years of control, but a team contending for a World Series in 2023 shouldn't have to trade one of their big bats for a non-closing reliever during the offseason. I still think it's a solid trade overall long term, but not calling it "excellent" by any means.

[Laika]

There is no sense in focusing on the "traded him for a reliever" part

 

They could have traded him for just prospects and signed a RP.

 

Or traded him for a CF and signed a RP.

 

I can guarantee that Toronto's thought process was not "we need to trade Teoscar for a reliever"

 

It was instead, "Teoscar is expensive and this type of player is overvalued. We should trade him. We need to make SOME value trades so our window of contention does not shut abruptly."

 

They elected to get Swanson in the package but you might as well consider Swanson just one piece they brought in over the course of the entire offseason where they brought in CF, LF, SP, RP, and 1B/DH additions.

 

Also, the team looks much better at the whole RP acquisition thing right now. Swanson has been good, Cabrera looks okay, Mayza has developed more, Francis is great, Richards is great.

[Brownie19]

You don't have to be very smart to see that trading 1 year of Teo for Swanson, Macko and 1 year of Belt (or KK) was a fantastic decision and excellent roster management that allowed us to compete this year and sustain winning in the future. I don't see any other way to look at this honestly.

[Olerud363]

Gabriel Moreno is who we thought they thought we thought he thought he was, after all!

 

Gabriel Moreno (2023 version) vs Alejandro Kirk (2023 version)

 

(approximate numbers from glancing at fangraphs this morning, some small errors likely)

 

Homeruns - Moreno 7-6

fWARs - Kirk 1.8 to 1.3

Slugging - Moreno .420 to .360

On base - Kirk .340 to .320

Defense - Kirk 10 fangraphs defense to 7 or something

Height - Moreno 5'9"" to 5'7": ???

Fatness - Kirk 260 pounds to 175 or something

Board thinks he looks like an Athlete - Moreno Yes to Kirk No

 

Past performance (pre-2023) - Kirk has 1 all star season, this season is a down year but he has shown better, Moreno doesn't have much of a past

Future performance (post-2023) - Moreno the athlete will hit .300, contend for batting titles, and bring joy to his fanbase, Kirk will go to the Mexican minor leagues or the old country buffet

 

Commentary - despite the potential future divergence of the two, they are pretty much the same this year with Kirk rated higher on fangraphs.

[jaysblue]

You don't have to be very smart to see that trading 1 year of Teo for Swanson, Macko and 1 year of Belt (or KK) was a fantastic decision and excellent roster management that allowed us to compete this year and sustain winning in the future. I don't see any other way to look at this honestly.

 

What happens if Belt and KK didn't have the seasons they were having? Just asking.

 

Overall, I still like the deal in the long run given the years of control Swanson has. Nothing against the deal at all. Mike does offer some valid points and I understand where he's coming from though.

 

The trade is done now. Would have been nice to both trade for Swanson and keep Teo in hindsight or trade for him at the deadline, but yeah not complaining at all given the results with Swanson, Belt and KK.

Edited September 6, 2023 by jaysblue

[Olerud363]

What happens if Belt and KK didn't have the seasons they were having? Just asking.

 

Overall, I still like the deal in the long run given the years of control Swanson has. Nothing against the deal at all. Mike does offer some valid points and I understand where he's coming from though.

 

Varsho's 2022, was exactly the same as Teos 2019 at the same age. So really Varsho was set up to replace Teo... it didn't exactly happen though with Varsho slumping

 

Point is they set it up to have redundancy

 

1. Varsho could have replaced Teo

2. Belt could have replaced Teo

3. A minor leaguer like Barger or someone could have taken a big step forward

\

It turned out 2 was what happened, and 3 might have happened too (or has happened with small sample size), so if 2 didn't happen Schneider or Horwitz would have been called up earlier.

 

Option 1. (Varsho) didn't happen, really hoping he can recover from this weird season. Others have (see some of Alex Rios' bad seasons, followed by normal seasons for example).

[Brownie19]

What happens if Belt and KK didn't have the seasons they were having? Just asking.

 

Overall, I still like the deal in the long run given the years of control Swanson has. Nothing against the deal at all. Mike does offer some valid points and I understand where he's coming from though.

 

The trade is done now. Would have been nice to both trade for Swanson and keep Teo in hindsight or trade for him at the deadline, but yeah not complaining at all given the results with Swanson, Belt and KK.

 

I mean what if Teo had a down year? (which he has...)

 

Again, it's all about the probability of the outcomes. As Olerud has explained, the Jays had several options which could have replaced Teo. It turns out that both KK and Belt have replaced what Teo has provided this year, while Varsho was also projected to (in the preseason) and has from a pure WAR perspective. They traded him for long term assets, with the plan of adding a various others who could replace him.

 

Could it all have failed miserably? Of course there was a probability that happened, but the Jays probably felt it was a reasonably low chance. And while it's hard to say this now because we didn't add one at the deadline (when I would agree we should have), but replacing bat first (only?) corner outfielders has historically been one of the easiest positions in baseball to fill - so a backup plan would have been an in-season addition.

[Jonn]

I do feel the Jays went to hard in one direction on Outfield defense. Getting a premium CF and moving Springer RF would have dramatically improved the Defense alone. You could have almost had anyone in LF and would have been fine.

 

Next season when they put Varsho in CF you need a bopper in LF. Hopefully they aren't a train wreck defensively but you need offense from that position. Varsho has been very s*** offensively outside of some small hot stretches' which plays fine in CF but not in LF.

 

I don't like trading everyday players for Relievers though. I remember thinking during that trade that's all we got?

[John_Havok]

I do feel the Jays went to hard in one direction on Outfield defense. Getting a premium CF and moving Springer RF would have dramatically improved the Defense alone. You could have almost had anyone in LF and would have been fine.

 

Next season when they put Varsho in CF you need a bopper in LF. Hopefully they aren't a train wreck defensively but you need offense from that position. Varsho has been very s*** offensively outside of some small hot stretches' which plays fine in CF but not in LF.

 

I don't like trading everyday players for Relievers though. I remember thinking during that trade that's all we got?

 

Yeah, but Of defense wasnt the only thing they were trying to improve. Baserunning was also a needed area of upgrade and both Teo and LGJ were boneheads on the bases. Having those 2 along with Vlad running into multiple outs every week just wasn't going to work, along with Kirk's tortoise speed was 4 guys out of 9 who couldnt be relied on to do anything productive while "running"

 

Now, along with the improved D, theyre down to 2 out of 9 being unreliable, and only 1 out of 9 if Kirk is sitting, though that number might be different depending on how the Buffalo boys grade out. Im not expecting much from Horwitz but Schneider and Clement should be average or better. McCoy as well in his limited action

[BigCecil]

LGJ with his 23rd bomb today and down the stretch drive regains WAR leadership over Varsho whose bat has gone cold the last 15 gms.

[Spanky99]

For the most part, I want to see LGJ and Teo to do well, for personal reasons as well, own these meatheads in fantasy, haha!

[metafour]

He's in his mid 20s, his medicals are longer than a CVS receipt and he's got a 4.63 K/9 in AAA lol

 

Any rag that put this guy in the Top 100 isn't serious

 

Nick Frasso start #3 in AAA:

 

2.2 IP, 7 H, 4 ER, 0 BB, 2 K

 

Threw 73 pitches and didn't get out of the 3rd inning. Just 5 whiffs and a 26% CSW%. Average FB velocity: 93.8 mph again.

 

He really hasn't been good since promotion. His velocity is nothing like it was with the Jays and he's not missing any bats.

 

Another ugly data point: he gave up 4 of the 5 highest EV's of the entire game (including the 3 hardest hit balls). The hardest hit ball off him was 108.4 mph. In his previous start, he gave up a 114 mph EV.

[Spanky99]

Nick Frasso start #3 in AAA:

 

2.2 IP, 7 H, 4 ER, 0 BB, 2 K

 

Threw 73 pitches and didn't get out of the 3rd inning. Just 5 whiffs and a 26% CSW%. Average FB velocity: 93.8 mph again.

 

He really hasn't been good since promotion. His velocity is nothing like it was with the Jays and he's not missing any bats.

 

Another ugly data point: he gave up 4 of the 5 highest EV's of the entire game (including the 3 hardest hit balls). The hardest hit ball off him was 108.4 mph. In his previous start, he gave up a 114 mph EV.

 

He'll end up a high leverage reliever.

[hanton]

He's in his mid 20s, his medicals are longer than a CVS receipt and he's got a 4.63 K/9 in AAA lol

 

Any rag that put this guy in the Top 100 isn't serious

 

BA had him in the 60's I believe then he dropped off.

[Spanky99]

BA had him in the 60's I believe then he dropped off.

 

Yup.

[hanton]

Yup.

 

It does look like he will end up a reliever - never know though, The Dodgers have a s*** ton of arms like this both in the minors and on the major league club. I guess they figure we can go as far as possible with him and see where it goes.

[Spanky99]

It does look like he will end up a reliever - never know though, The Dodgers have a s*** ton of arms like this both in the minors and on the major league club. I guess they figure we can go as far as possible with him and see where it goes.

 

Yeah, as they should, they're always stacked and manipulate playing time and use these guys as swing man, high leverage multi inning pitchers, etc... his mind set needs to be right for that or it goes squirrelly.

[Spanky99]

Like Zulu climbed close to top 100, fell about 20 something spots short last season, now he's likely dropped back a couple hundred spots, these rankings are fickle. And it's always go time... s*** or get off the pot.

[hanton]

Trent Thornton acting as the opener for the Mariners today

[Ehjays]

[Pendleton]

[Stangstag]

 

Sorry but I just can’t believe any of these guys that claim they were “framed” or never used. Usually turns out they’re lying through their teeth.

 

Ryan Braun fooled us and we won’t get fooled again.

[Masterbather]

Sorry but I just can’t believe any of these guys that claim they were “framed” or never used. Usually turns out they’re lying through their teeth.

 

Ryan Braun fooled us and we won’t get fooled again.

Who did Ryan Braun fool? Honestly when he tried to throw the urine collector under the bus I immediately thought he was the biggest piece of s*** I've ever seen.

 

I think it's possible that there could be problems with the testing methods. s*** happens. I don't know enough either way.

[Omar]

Sorry but I just can’t believe any of these guys that claim they were “framed” or never used. Usually turns out they’re lying through their teeth.

 

Ryan Braun fooled us and we won’t get fooled again.

 

Colabello seems sincere. Who knows what the truth is?