Former Blue Jays Thread

[jaysblue]

It doesn't sound like anybody was hot for Kirk.

 

Most of this board was.

[Laika]

Most of this board was.

 

I mean... with good reason

 

hindsight is 20/20 and he kind of sucks this year but you can't fake a 5.8% SwStr%

 

he looked like Fat Jose Altuve

 

maybe he still is and this is just an adjustment year. it's frustrating that he just completely lost his power stroke.

 

i feel like he is at least a significantly better defender than Jansen all things considered

[jaysblue]

I mean... with good reason

 

hindsight is 20/20 and he kind of sucks this year but you can't fake a 5.8% SwStr%

 

he looked like Fat Jose Altuve

 

maybe he still is and this is just an adjustment year. it's frustrating that he just completely lost his power stroke.

 

i feel like he is at least a significantly better defender than Jansen all things considered

 

Most of his 2022 season offensively was driven by a very hot May and June. Otherwise, he didn't do much those other four months power wise.

 

Agree with you that he is a better defender than Jansen.

 

Kirk can still be a solid regular and piece on this team. I'll take a 3 WAR player who can hit .250/.370/.400 with 10-15 HR's and great defense behind the plate everyday. I do think he was overhyped on here however. Hope he could find some of his power stroke back and gets in better shape for 2024 and I think he'll be fine.

[Laika]

Most of his 2022 season offensively was driven by a very hot May and June. Otherwise, he didn't do much those other four months power wise.

 

Agree with you that he is a better defender than Jansen.

 

Kirk can still be a solid regular and piece on this team. I'll take a 3 WAR player who can hit .250/.370/.400 with 10-15 HR's and great defense behind the plate everyday. I do think he was overhyped on here however. Hope he could find some of his power stroke back and gets in better shape for 2024 and I think he'll be fine.

 

You could say this about almost every player having a great season, if you look under the hood

[jaysblue]

You could say this about almost every player having a great season, if you look under the hood

 

Power wise, there is a huge difference. As well, we're talking about 8 months of subpar performance dating back from last July.

[Laika]

Power wise, there is a huge difference. As well, we're talking about 8 months of subpar performance dating back from last July.

 

If the narrative you are painting is:

 

"he was always mediocre and the team was fooled by two hot months in 2022"

 

then I just don't buy it.

 

his three worst months in the big leagues are all from 2023

 

when he cooled off in 2022 he was still better by monthly splits than any of his horrible months this season

 

and his production in the minors was obviously phenomenal

 

he's just putting up a horrible season that could only be predicted if you dislike people his shape. Which would be entirely fair, lol

[Brownie19]

Yeah he still has loads of potential and definitely has the opportunity to take his game to the next level.

 

I don't want to start an argument by talking about that Jays/D'Backs trade for the 1000th time on here knowing the Atkins Homer brigade will be looking to attack. Though while still early, given the results so far this season, looks like the Jays might have traded away the wrong catcher. But like I've said numerous times, given the Jays timeline and the season Kirk was coming off of, was tough to trade him and roll with an inexperienced guy like Moreno, plus we don't know who the D'Backs preferred anyways.

 

It's such a polarizing trade. Hard to know exactly which catchers to keep, which catchers that teams wanted and what they were willing to give up. We all need to keep in mind that this team needed a CF of the future and they are costly to acquire. SD had to give up Urias, who was once the 23rd overall prospect in baseball and Eric Lauer (25th overall draft pick) to get Trent Grisham - and Grisham wasn't coming off 2.3 and 4.8 WAR seasons.

 

I'm happy to see Moreno having success in the 2nd half. Good to see his ISO > 0.100 (as I don't think he'll amount to anything as a starter with an ISO <0.100) finally. Hope the trade works out for both teams and expect it will to some extent.

[Brownie19]

If the narrative you are painting is:

 

"he was always mediocre and the team was fooled by two hot months in 2022"

 

then I just don't buy it.

 

his three worst months in the big leagues are all from 2023

 

when he cooled off in 2022 he was still better by monthly splits than any of his horrible months this season

 

and his production in the minors was obviously phenomenal

 

he's just putting up a horrible season that could only be predicted if you dislike people his shape. Which would be entirely fair, lol

 

Kirk's 2022 statcast page was full of beautiful red colours, regardless of a hot start and slow finish. It was glorious. Now it's all grumpy bear blue FFS. His max EV went from 63rd percentile down to 32nd and his average EV went from 78th percentile to f***ing the 19th percentile. Disgusting.

[max silver]

Kirk's 2022 statcast page was full of beautiful red colours, regardless of a hot start and slow finish. It was glorious. Now it's all grumpy bear blue FFS. His max EV went from 63rd percentile down to 32nd and his average EV went from 78th percentile to f***ing the 19th percentile. Disgusting.

 

He just stopped squaring up baseballs for whatever reason. Maybe his belly finally got so big that he can't properly get the bat through the zone or something of that sort.

[jaysblue]

It's such a polarizing trade. Hard to know exactly which catchers to keep, which catchers that teams wanted and what they were willing to give up. We all need to keep in mind that this team needed a CF of the future and they are costly to acquire. SD had to give up Urias, who was once the 23rd overall prospect in baseball and Eric Lauer (25th overall draft pick) to get Trent Grisham - and Grisham wasn't coming off 2.3 and 4.8 WAR seasons.

 

I'm happy to see Moreno having success in the 2nd half. Good to see his ISO > 0.100 (as I don't think he'll amount to anything as a starter with an ISO <0.100) finally. Hope the trade works out for both teams and expect it will to some extent.

 

Yeah if Varsho can return to being a 4-5 WAR player in 2024 and 2025, I don't think many will be regretting the trade in the long run. He's definitely the X factor. Like you said, young CFs with control can be very expensive and difficult to acquire.

 

We don't know the discussions the Jays had with the D'Backs and other teams regarding their catchers. So to say the Jays should have kept Moreno over Kirk is a moot point. Glad to see Moreno having success in the second half as well and hope the trade does work out for both teams - Arizona is one of the teams I like to follow in the NL.

 

Also, I think Kirk can bounce back somewhat and be decent offensively in 2024 if he gets himself into better shape and rediscovers some of his power stroke. I'll take Gregg Zaun offensive output from Kirk everyday of the week, which I think he's capable of doing given his OBP skills. Add in his plus defending behind the plate, Kirk can be a solid overall player for the Jays moving forward.

[MikeM3]

Trading Moreno is not terrible but you'd like to trade him for more of a slam dunk than Varsho

[Jonn]

Trading Moreno is not terrible but you'd like to trade him for more of a slam dunk than Varsho

 

I can agree with this. Trading your #1 prospect you would hope you’re getting more of an established star. Varsho had control, great defense, good base running, and upside for more power but he was still a flawed and inconsistent player.

 

With that being said he will settle into CF next Season and be a solid contributor for atleast the next 3 Seasons. 2.5-3 WAR player. Moreno upside is much higher but I think his floor is probably lower if he doesn’t hit for power.

 

It just wasn’t a very sexy move.

[Spanky99]

The trade meant all the sense in the world for both teams, and they'll both end up fine. Shaddup!

 

 

[glory]

I said at the time there was an argument to be made to trade any of the 3 catchers. Jansen had the fewest years of control, Kirk was a fat slob coming off a great season (2nd half power drop aside), and Moreno had six years of control + upside. The Jays likely preferred keeping the two “vets” and not take a chance on waiting for Moreno to pan out, or they just took what they felt was the best value. Probably both. In hindsight, the fact that Moreno is having a better 2023 than Kirk without the caveat of being incredibly out of shape and slow, it certainly appears that they chose the wrong catcher to trade, but as argued here many times, we don’t know what the offers for Kirk were.

 

I fully expect Varsho to be a 3+ WAR player in CF next season so if he does that then the Jays got what they traded for regardless of how Moreno turns out. If Varsho was in CF in 2023 and there was a better bat in LF, then we might be looking at him differently. They just put him in LF and that put way too much pressure on his bat.

[jaysblue]

The trade meant all the sense in the world for both teams, and they'll both end up fine. Shaddup!

 

 

 

We really won't know who "won" the trade until a couple of years down the road.

 

Moreno has had a strong second half in what has been a solid year considering its his first full season. He still has room to grow obviously but he could also never develop any power.

 

Varsho has struggled heavily in the first half, though has turned the corner somewhat. He still has time to prove he could be a 4-5 WAR outfielder for this team in 2024 and 2025.

 

LGJ's bat would have been nice considering the Jays offensive struggles, but he's likely just a 1.5 WAR left fielder for the D'Backs this season and leaves as a FA. No huge loss.

 

It all comes down to what Moreno and Varsho both do long term.

[Spanky99]

We really won't know who "won" the trade until a couple of years down the road.

 

Moreno has had a strong second half in what has been a solid year considering its his first full season. He still has room to grow obviously but he could also never develop any power.

 

Varsho has struggled heavily in the first half, though has turned the corner somewhat. He still has time to prove he could be a 4-5 WAR outfielder for this team in 2024 and 2025.

 

LGJ's bat would have been nice considering the Jays offensive struggles, but he's likely just a 1.5 WAR left fielder for the D'Backs this season and leaves as a FA. No huge loss.

 

It all comes down to what Moreno and Varsho both do long term.

 

 

I said all that in one sentence, man, lol.

[Terminator]

Kirk is only a year older than Moreno and catchers often develop in weird, non-linear ways.

 

Jansen is a great example. Offensive prospect who was actually a defensive stud early in his career. Now he's settling in to be a pretty balanced player.

 

Kirk made Fangraphs Top 50 Trade Value list at #39 and he's slashed about .279/.354/.419 since the article came out. The talent is there, the projections are high on him and his defense and eye at the plate provide a great floor for him.

[BigCecil]

I fully expect Varsho to be a 3+ WAR player in CF next season so if he does that then the Jays got what they traded for regardless of how Moreno turns out. If Varsho was in CF in 2023 and there was a better bat in LF, then we might be looking at him differently. They just put him in LF and that put way too much pressure on his bat.

 

 

I think this is fair on moving from LF to CF. Fans were tough on Varsho because we paid a very high price at the time for him. Expectations were high. We all saw the 5 WAR number by his 2022. A lot of fans imagined him to be a lock to improve offensively even though at 27 he is a career 95 wRC+ bat in 1500 PAs.

 

The team didn't help expectations when they started the season with Varsho batting clean up. He didn't help himself when he sucked at the plate.

 

Moving to CF and being a league avg bat will be solid value in 2024.

[Spanky99]

I think this is fair on moving from LF to CF. Fans were tough on Varsho because we paid a very high price at the time for him. Expectations were high. We all saw the 5 WAR number by his 2022. A lot of fans imagined him to be a lock to improve offensively even though at 27 he is a career 95 wRC+ bat in 1500 PAs.

 

The team didn't help expectations when they started the season with Varsho batting clean up. He didn't help himself when he sucked at the plate.

 

Moving to CF and being a league avg bat will be solid value in 2024.

 

He'll be better, than L.A, he'll be 10 to 15% better than average next year.

[G-Snarls]

I think this is fair on moving from LF to CF. Fans were tough on Varsho because we paid a very high price at the time for him. Expectations were high. We all saw the 5 WAR number by his 2022. A lot of fans imagined him to be a lock to improve offensively even though at 27 he is a career 95 wRC+ bat in 1500 PAs.

 

The team didn't help expectations when they started the season with Varsho batting clean up. He didn't help himself when he sucked at the plate.

 

Moving to CF and being a league avg bat will be solid value in 2024.

 

Man I agree with you >99% of the time

 

Including this time

[G-Snarls]

He'll be better.

 

Yeah other than maybe younger Springer he's probably the most "toolsy" guy on the team. It's all in there.

Edited August 29, 2023 by G-Snarls

[Spanky99]

Yeah other than maybe younger Springer he might be the most "toolsy" guy on the team. It's all in there.

 

He's a 4 > win player next season.

[Spanky99]

I'm taking odds.

[jaysblue]

He's a 4 > win player next season.

 

5 win player.

[hanton]

We really won't know who "won" the trade until a couple of years down the road.

 

Moreno has had a strong second half in what has been a solid year considering its his first full season. He still has room to grow obviously but he could also never develop any power.

 

Varsho has struggled heavily in the first half, though has turned the corner somewhat. He still has time to prove he could be a 4-5 WAR outfielder for this team in 2024 and 2025.

 

LGJ's bat would have been nice considering the Jays offensive struggles, but he's likely just a 1.5 WAR left fielder for the D'Backs this season and leaves as a FA. No huge loss.

 

It all comes down to what Moreno and Varsho both do long term.

 

from last night, the other way off a Bobby Miller 98mph FB

 

https://www.mlb.com/video/gabriel-moreno-homers-6-on-a-fly-ball-to-right-center-field-lourdes-gurri?cp=MIXED&p=0&q=PlayerId%20%3D%20%5B672515%5D%20Order%20By%20Timestamp%20DESC

[BigCecil]

He'll be better, than L.A, he'll be 10 to 15% better than average next year.

 

Screenshotted. I hope you are right. Projections were off on him this year. Unless he has a blistering Sept. We will need it Spank.

[Spanky99]

I'm taking odds.

 

Screenshotted. I hope you are right. Projections were off on him this year. Unless he has a blistering Sept. We will need it Spank.

 

lol

[BigCecil]

lol

 

I’d bet you on the League average, but it’s not a bet I’d want to win. So I don’t want to be hoping for that. Conflicts with my fandom of jays.

[wilko]

5 win player.

 

[hanton]

MLB Network interviewed Frasso and they specifically asked him about the difference between the jays and dodgers and he said the pitching development - it wasn't anything against the Jays but interesting that was the 1st question and he answered it without hesitation

 

He's in AAA now, never know they could call him, this trade is difficult to take tbh