Former Blue Jays Thread

[BigCecil]

Teo had 3 straight 130 wRC+ seasons for us. Yet, when it suits the argument of convenience pick the one anomalous SEA season.

 

Even in '23 he had a .178 ISO, which is what this team needs more of.

 

So instead of beating the $20.3M AAV LAD gave him on a 1 year deal the Jays had a better strategy. Lets invest $50M AAV on a collective that has produced .0.9 WAR in just under half a season. The Jays looked in on Teo for PR purposes (which works on some) but thats about it.

 

I mean we couldn't really use the .260 ISO in '24 he has. We are already consistently scoring plenty of runs as it is in both the '23 and '24 seasons. Right?

 

I understand that this orgs issues run deeper than what Teo could have addressed, but he would made this team more effective offensively. And he is more useful than the the $15M AAV JT Vogelbach combo on D.

[Eat My Shatkins]

They should have increased their payroll to $300 million for another 1-2 fWAR that we can easily pick.out now with hindsight

 

Haha yup

[Spanky99]

Just sayin'...

 

As has been the Blue Jays’ habit over the last few offseasons, the club was linked to a wide range of available players. Beyond Ohtani and Yamamoto, multiple reports suggested the Jays had some degree of interest in the likes of free agents Cody Bellinger, Aaron Nola, Blake Snell, J.D. Martinez, Teoscar Hernandez, Jeimer Candelario, Jorge Soler, Joc Pederson, Michael Brantley, Rhys Hoskins, Gio Urshela, Michael A. Taylor, Amed Rosario, Domingo German, and their own incumbent free agent in Matt Chapman. On the trade front, the Blue Jays reportedly looked into deals involving such players as Juan Soto, Eugenio Suarez, Isaac Paredes, Dylan Carlson, Jonathan India, and Jake Cronenworth, with the first two of those names actually changing teams in other deals.

 

The slow-moving nature of the free agent market means that the Blue Jays probably didn’t really miss out on many opportunities while focusing primarily on Ohtani for the offseason’s first five weeks. Hindsight being 20-20, it can be argued that the Jays should’ve or could’ve pushed more to acquire Soto than Ohtani, though there’s no guarantee that the Jays were willing to match or exceed the pitching-centric trade package the Yankees needed to pry Soto away from the Padres. As much as the fans were begging for a big strike, cleaning out an already thin farm system to land Soto might not have been feasible for the Jays in the long run.

[glory]

Teo had 3 straight 130 wRC+ seasons for us. Yet, when it suits the argument of convenience pick the one anomalous SEA season.

 

Even in '23 he had a .178 ISO, which is what this team needs more of.

 

So instead of beating the $20.3M AAV LAD gave him on a 1 year deal the Jays had a better strategy. Lets invest $50M AAV on a collective that has produced .0.9 WAR in just under half a season. The Jays looked in on Teo for PR purposes (which works on some) but thats about it.

 

I mean we couldn't really use the .260 ISO in '24 he has. We are already consistently scoring plenty of runs as it is in both the '23 and '24 seasons. Right?

 

I understand that this orgs issues run deeper than what Teo could have addressed, but he would made this team more effective offensively. And he is more useful than the the $15M AAV JT Vogelbach combo on D.

 

Yeah, it's been mentioned many times now, Teoscar from 2020-22 was essentially a 3-4 WAR/130-140 wRC+ player, and then was destroyed by Safeco in 2023 (he hit closer to 2020-22 levels on the road last season). He was a very reasonable free agent target pre-2024 hindsight. What he would have signed for with the Jays versus what he signed for with the Dodgers is something we don't know, but to suggest that anyone who thinks Teoscar would have been an upgrade is using hindsight rather than numbers that were readily available prior to this season is ridiculous.

[Spanky99]

Teo had a 105 wRC+ last year but the Jays should have outbid the Dodgers for him because there was never any doubt he'd bounce back in the middle of a stacked Dodgers line up. I mean it was all but guaranteed now that we can see it happening in real time.

 

Haha yup

 

You're getting roasted dude, should've zipped this one up, lol.

[Eat My Shatkins]

You're getting roasted dude, should've zipped this one up, lol.

 

I disagree. Even if they were confident Teo would bounce back away from safeco there is no guarantee he'd even sign with Toronto instead of the Dodgers.

 

I know I wouldn't if given the choice.

 

So in other words he may have never been a realistic option to begin with, at least not without an absurd overpayment.

 

That's the whole point. Lots of options to fix the offense my ass haha

[Spanky99]

I disagree. Even if they were confident Teo would bounce back away from safeco there is no guarantee he'd even sign with Toronto instead of the Dodgers.

 

I know I wouldn't if given the choice.

 

So in other words he may have never been a realistic option to begin with, at least not without an absurd overpayment.

 

That's the whole point. Lots of options to fix the offense my ass haha

 

I get your point, but Teo had 3 beastly seasons prior to last year. Anyhow, the only way the Jays get Teoscar is if they gave him more term. Jays tried though. Most know the FA market was both barren and eventually the market cratered, there was slim f***ing pickings in FA.

[max silver]

Teo had 3 straight 130 wRC+ seasons for us. Yet, when it suits the argument of convenience pick the one anomalous SEA season.

 

Even in '23 he had a .178 ISO, which is what this team needs more of.

 

So instead of beating the $20.3M AAV LAD gave him on a 1 year deal the Jays had a better strategy. Lets invest $50M AAV on a collective that has produced .0.9 WAR in just under half a season. The Jays looked in on Teo for PR purposes (which works on some) but thats about it.

 

I mean we couldn't really use the .260 ISO in '24 he has. We are already consistently scoring plenty of runs as it is in both the '23 and '24 seasons. Right?

 

I understand that this orgs issues run deeper than what Teo could have addressed, but he would made this team more effective offensively. And he is more useful than the the $15M AAV JT Vogelbach combo on D.

 

I just don't think the team had the available payroll to beat the Dodgers offer to Teoscar at the point where he eventually signed. Obviously we all have the benefit of hindsight to know that Teo eventually signed for a 1 year show me kind of deal, but the front office didn't have the benefit of knowing that would eventually come to fruition.

[Laika]

If you wanted the Blue Jays to shop in the Teoscar bucket, they could have realistically ended up with Soler instead which would have been a disaster.

 

Tier 1 - Ohtani (elite)

 

Tier 2 - Bellinger, Chapman (flawed but good)

 

Tier 3 - Teoscar, Soler, maybe Candelario (combo of age, offensive upside, or position make them more competitive)

 

Tier 4 - Gurriel, Hoskins, Garver (slightly younger, may take 2+ years)

 

Tier 5 - JDM, Turner, Pederson, maybe KK (one year geezers)

 

Atkins is a cheapo. He never wanted to f*** around in tiers 2-4 at all.

 

Can't really blame him when you look at the FA landscape as a whole.

[Terminator]

Teoscar was traded two seasons ago when he only had 1 year of team control left. Get over it.

 

The only reason the Debbie Downers even bring him up is because they can't whine anymore about any other former Jays like Gurriel, Moreno, Frasso, etc.

[Terminator]

126 wrc+ away from Safeco because he said he can't see the ball there. Super genius dodgers can read splits and press clippings

 

Yeah and he was in the best shape of his life this past offseason. Super motivated to put 2023 behind him (and whatever other platitudes players use), I'm sure.

[Laika]

Fair to wonder, though, why they thought Turner was The One.

 

39 years old coming off 1.1 fWAR in 626 PA, kind of disgusting to throw $13M at that

 

Like, racism aside, why was the 36 year old Tommy Pham who can sort of play the outfield and run still and just had a 1.9 fWAR truncated season not preferable, for less money?

 

Only mentioning Pham because jaysblue and I were banging the table for him all offseason. Pham, Pham, Pham, Pham, Pham.

[L54]

Fair to wonder, though, why they thought Turner was The One.

 

39 years old coming off 1.1 fWAR in 626 PA, kind of disgusting to throw $13M at that

 

Like, racism aside, why was the 36 year old Tommy Pham who can sort of play the outfield and run still and just had a 1.9 fWAR truncated season not preferable, for less money?

 

Only mentioning Pham because jaysblue and I were banging the table for him all offseason. Pham, Pham, Pham, Pham, Pham.

 

Stop asking questions what’s done is done. Justin Turner had a 136 wrc+ through May 19

[Terminator]

Fair to wonder, though, why they thought Turner was The One.

 

39 years old coming off 1.1 fWAR in 626 PA, kind of disgusting to throw $13M at that

 

Like, racism aside, why was the 36 year old Tommy Pham who can sort of play the outfield and run still and just had a 1.9 fWAR truncated season not preferable, for less money?

 

Only mentioning Pham because jaysblue and I were banging the table for him all offseason. Pham, Pham, Pham, Pham, Pham.

 

Definitely fair to question Turner.

 

I think they saw it like this. 3B was a huge gaping hole and there weren't many options out there other than Chapman. I don't think they fully trusted IKF so they thought they could throw spaghetti at the wall with IKF, a DH/3B who could play there for ~40 games, Biggio who had somewhat of a bounceback year and then the AAA guys like Barger and Orelvis.

 

IKF is the real deal so it turns out it would have been better to sign a DH/LF like Pham. Especially since he's so cheap. And Turner was signed just a couple of weeks before everyone had realized that the market had cratered and every FA left was scrambling to sign anything.

 

Turner is playing a lot better than his numbers suggest though. He won't beat Pham on a WAR per dollar basis, of course, but he might end the season with better numbers than him. Their xwOBA is nearly identical right now.

[Eat My Shatkins]

This is what happens when you're filling out your roster from a free agent pool that's full of crap.

 

Some of it works, some of it doesn't, and with the benefit of hindsight you can piss and moan until the cows come home every time a performer from that free agent pool hits a dinger.

[Brownie19]

Fair to wonder, though, why they thought Turner was The One.

 

39 years old coming off 1.1 fWAR in 626 PA, kind of disgusting to throw $13M at that

 

Like, racism aside, why was the 36 year old Tommy Pham who can sort of play the outfield and run still and just had a 1.9 fWAR truncated season not preferable, for less money?

 

Only mentioning Pham because jaysblue and I were banging the table for him all offseason. Pham, Pham, Pham, Pham, Pham.

 

I do wonder if Turner's track record with RISP was a factor.

 

Let's be honest, there were a lot of DH types that didn't project well that were getting big $$$

 

Player | Projected WAR | AAV

 

Teo 1.6 $23M

Hoskins 1.9 $17M

LGR 1.4 $14M

Soler 1.8 $14M

Turner 1.0 $13M

Joc 1.1 $12.5M

Garver 1.4 $12M

JDM 0.4 $12M

 

And Pham was only projected for 0.7 WAR FWIW.

 

Most of these guys suck.

[Spanky99]

Stop asking questions what’s done is done. Justin Turner had a 136 wrc+ through May 19

 

Uhmm... you had no problem adding Turner?

[Spanky99]

Fair to wonder, though, why they thought Turner was The One.

 

39 years old coming off 1.1 fWAR in 626 PA, kind of disgusting to throw $13M at that

 

Like, racism aside, why was the 36 year old Tommy Pham who can sort of play the outfield and run still and just had a 1.9 fWAR truncated season not preferable, for less money?

 

Only mentioning Pham because jaysblue and I were banging the table for him all offseason. Pham, Pham, Pham, Pham, Pham.

 

I was hoping for Pham as a LF nearing March for sure, but that was on top of someone of Turner's ilk. KK signing kind of sucks buttholes.

[Stangstag]

I do wonder if Turner's track record with RISP was a factor.

 

Let's be honest, there were a lot of DH types that didn't project well that were getting big $$$

 

Player | Projected WAR | AAV

 

Teo 1.6 $23M

Hoskins 1.9 $17M

LGR 1.4 $14M

Soler 1.8 $14M

Turner 1.0 $13M

Joc 1.1 $12.5M

Garver 1.4 $12M

JDM 0.4 $12M

 

And Pham was only projected for 0.7 WAR FWIW.

 

Most of these guys suck.

 

I have to think the answer is yes. If we were only going to add the 1 “big bat”, there were better options IMO. Unless you put a lot of stock into the clutch/RISP numbers, then Turner was probably the best choice.

 

I think positional versatility was also a factor, though it seems they overestimated Turner’s ability to play 3B/2B

[jaysblue]

Teo had 3 straight 130 wRC+ seasons for us. Yet, when it suits the argument of convenience pick the one anomalous SEA season.

 

Even in '23 he had a .178 ISO, which is what this team needs more of.

 

So instead of beating the $20.3M AAV LAD gave him on a 1 year deal the Jays had a better strategy. Lets invest $50M AAV on a collective that has produced .0.9 WAR in just under half a season. The Jays looked in on Teo for PR purposes (which works on some) but thats about it.

 

I mean we couldn't really use the .260 ISO in '24 he has. We are already consistently scoring plenty of runs as it is in both the '23 and '24 seasons. Right?

 

I understand that this orgs issues run deeper than what Teo could have addressed, but he would made this team more effective offensively. And he is more useful than the the $15M AAV JT Vogelbach combo on D.

 

EatMyShatkins tends to forget the solid years offensively Teo had for the Jays.

 

Funny when Teo has an off year in Seattle, he's done. But when an aging outfielder like Springer is in decline for two years or someone like Kirk's power disappears, it's too early to write them off just yet lol.

[Eat My Shatkins]

EatMyShatkins tends to forget the solid years offensively Teo had for the Jays.

 

Funny when Teo has an off year in Seattle, he's done. But when an aging outfielder like Springer is in decline for two years or someone like Kirk's power disappears, it's too early to write them off just yet lol.

 

jaysblue with another strawman argument

 

It's literally the only thing you can do is give me a position I've never taken and then try to make fun of me for it

[Terminator]

jaysblue with another strawman argument

 

It's literally the only thing you can do is give me a position I've never taken and then try to make fun of me for it

 

Oh yeah, the Debbie Downers love misconstruing an argument to create a strawman.

 

There isn't a day that goes by where they don't use this one: "But I thought there was nothing we could do to improve the offense?"

[Brownie19]

How about old fan favorite Kevin Pillar hitting cleanup for the Angels, casually hitting .317/.375/.577 with a 167 wRC+ at age 35. Good for you Kevin. Keep grinding Superman!

[Stangstag]

How about old fan favorite Kevin Pillar hitting cleanup for the Angels, casually hitting .317/.375/.577 with a 167 wRC+ at age 35. Good for you Kevin. Keep grinding Superman!

 

Yeah that would be nice to have him in RF over Springer right now… i guess we gotta hope for Springer’s dead cat bounce before the end of his deal

[Brownie19]

Yeah that would be nice to have him in RF over Springer right now… i guess we gotta hope for Springer’s dead cat bounce before the end of his deal

 

It's pretty ironic that we're talking about how all our old hitters suck and there are very few old guys in baseball who hit well these days....and one of the old dudes who's actually hitting is Kevin Pillar....who never hit much his whole career.

[Stangstag]

It's pretty ironic that we're talking about how all our old hitters suck and there are very few old guys in baseball who hit well these days....and one of the old dudes who's actually hitting is Kevin Pillar....who never hit much his whole career.

 

Beisbol

[Olerud363]

It's pretty ironic that we're talking about how all our old hitters suck and there are very few old guys in baseball who hit well these days....and one of the old dudes who's actually hitting is Kevin Pillar....who never hit much his whole career.

 

I bring this up time to time, but in the early 90s Bill James simulated thousands of baseball seasons for players. It was the first time anything like that had been done. Wade Boggs results were interesting.

 

A few thousand Wade Boggs hit as high as .400 but as low as .250 indicating that the real Wade Boggs 1992 could have been fluke.

 

Say you have a process that results in a 'positive' 3 times out of 10. Then you draw 500 of them. Then you do 10000 500 sample trials.

 

What is the highest and lowest number of positives you can expect to get? The variation is pretty high.

 

So the question is, in real baseball, a few hundred mlb players a year with significant playing time, many years, there will be natural variation producing outliers.

 

Are the number of outlier seasons, good and bad, more than expected by statistics considering aging curves?

 

Almost certainly yes. A lot of it probably caused injury.

 

If you could factor out the randomness and injury is there another level of unexpected variation caused by an unknown factor?

 

The unknown factor could be cheating (PEDs, sign stealing) or legal enhancement (legal nutrition/sleep hacks, good hitting tips, tells on pitchers) ?

 

It is these unknown factors, whether they exist and which teams and players are taking advantage of them that is the great mystery to us casual fans.

[Omar]

I bring this up time to time, but in the early 90s Bill James simulated thousands of baseball seasons for players. It was the first time anything like that had been done. Wade Boggs results were interesting.

 

A few thousand Wade Boggs hit as high as .400 but as low as .250 indicating that the real Wade Boggs 1992 could have been fluke.

 

Say you have a process that results in a 'positive' 3 times out of 10. Then you draw 500 of them. Then you do 10000 500 sample trials.

 

What is the highest and lowest number of positives you can expect to get? The variation is pretty high.

 

So the question is, in real baseball, a few hundred mlb players a year with significant playing time, many years, there will be natural variation producing outliers.

 

Are the number of outlier seasons, good and bad, more than expected by statistics considering aging curves?

 

Almost certainly yes. A lot of it probably caused injury.

 

If you could factor out the randomness and injury is there another level of unexpected variation caused by an unknown factor?

 

The unknown factor could be cheating (PEDs, sign stealing) or legal enhancement (legal nutrition/sleep hacks, good hitting tips, tells on pitchers) ?

 

It is these unknown factors, whether they exist and which teams and players are taking advantage of them that is the great mystery to us casual fans.

 

Factor out randomness? Randomness is just a term we use as a placeholder because we don't know all the variables in any particular situation. As you yourself have noted, there are far too many variables for any model to be complete. Hence we live in a world of probabilities.

[BCZ]

How about old fan favorite Kevin Pillar hitting cleanup for the Angels, casually hitting .317/.375/.577 with a 167 wRC+ at age 35. Good for you Kevin. Keep grinding Superman!

 

Wasn't Reed Johnson nicknamed Superman? Is it appropriate to call Kevin Pillar that?

[BCZ]

I bring this up time to time, but in the early 90s Bill James simulated thousands of baseball seasons for players. It was the first time anything like that had been done. Wade Boggs results were interesting.

 

A few thousand Wade Boggs hit as high as .400 but as low as .250 indicating that the real Wade Boggs 1992 could have been fluke.

 

Say you have a process that results in a 'positive' 3 times out of 10. Then you draw 500 of them. Then you do 10000 500 sample trials.

 

What is the highest and lowest number of positives you can expect to get? The variation is pretty high.

 

So the question is, in real baseball, a few hundred mlb players a year with significant playing time, many years, there will be natural variation producing outliers.

 

Are the number of outlier seasons, good and bad, more than expected by statistics considering aging curves?

 

Almost certainly yes. A lot of it probably caused injury.

 

If you could factor out the randomness and injury is there another level of unexpected variation caused by an unknown factor?

 

The unknown factor could be cheating (PEDs, sign stealing) or legal enhancement (legal nutrition/sleep hacks, good hitting tips, tells on pitchers) ?

 

It is these unknown factors, whether they exist and which teams and players are taking advantage of them that is the great mystery to us casual fans.

 

Yeah I think PEDs hitting their peak effectiveness is the bigger factor. For example Chris Davis and adderall and 2013. Then you see the degradation factor of the drug no longer working or perhaps how he became reliant on them and his stats fell off a cliff.