General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2023)

[BigCecil]

Not really too concerned…. He’s a great hitter. I think maybe his conditioning this offseason went out the window with his Wife’s pregnancy and birth during spring training. That few weeks of missed time really f***ed him.

 

I’m really just seeing parallels with Vladdy’s 2020. Kirk has to work on his weight this offseason.

 

I think his conditioning every off season has gone out the window. If he doesn't lay off the churros and go like Vlad has he wont sustain the career he has the potential to have. Which is unfortunate because he is a great story coming out of Tijuana as a nobody making the bigs.

[spats]

The other teams in the A.L. East refuse to lose. Going to be a tough road back.

[Masterbather]

So are people finally done riding the nuts of the front office and willing to acknowledge, as some of us always knew, they failed to take this team to another level in the off season?

 

Bullpen still only okay, no starting pitching depth (even though this hasn't come back to really haunt us, yet), downgraded offense. Traded our top prospect for Daulton f***ing Varsho (although I'm sure people aren't done riding Varsho's nuts yet).

 

Or do you require more evidence because I assure you it's coming with this schedule.

[tossingthiscoin]

I can't believe Shatkins decided to extend Schneider after what he did in the wild card series lol.

[tossingthiscoin]

After looking at our schedule, I think we won't win any series until we face the Athletics on June 23. Other teams we face prior to the A's series are very strong.

[Olerud363]

So are people finally done riding the nuts of the front office and willing to acknowledge, as some of us always knew, they failed to take this team to another level in the off season?

 

Bullpen still only okay, no starting pitching depth (even though this hasn't come back to really haunt us, yet), downgraded offense. Traded our top prospect for Daulton f***ing Varsho (although I'm sure people aren't done riding Varsho's nuts yet).

 

Or do you require more evidence because I assure you it's coming with this schedule.

 

 

I'm with the posters who are complaining about the pitching development, except it applies to both hitting and pitching development at the minor and major league level.

 

The Daulton Varsho trade itself doesn't bother me, it's the fact that he comes here and at an age when he should improve he has regressed and looked awful. Maybe that is just who he is, but his minor league numbers, Arizona numbers, athleticism indicated he could be something age 26-29. Instead he's a more athletic Cavan Biggio (so far).

 

And the secondary guy they give up for Varsho, Gurriel rebounds with a new organization, addressing last years flaw (power).

 

So what was up with Gurriel anyway last year? He goes from 30 homer power in 2019/20 to 5 homer power in a full 2022? Now back to his old power? Was it injury? Hitting mechanics. Hitting strategy? A weird power slump

[Daniel Labude]

I'm with the posters who are complaining about the pitching development, except it applies to both hitting and pitching development at the minor and major league level.

 

The Daulton Varsho trade itself doesn't bother me, it's the fact that he comes here and at an age when he should improve he has regressed and looked awful. Maybe that is just who he is, but his minor league numbers, Arizona numbers, athleticism indicated he could be something age 26-29. Instead he's a more athletic Cavan Biggio (so far).

 

And the secondary guy they give up for Varsho, Gurriel rebounds with a new organization, addressing last years flaw (power).

 

So what was up with Gurriel anyway last year? He goes from 30 homer power in 2019/20 to 5 homer power in a full 2022? Now back to his old power? Was it injury? Hitting mechanics. Hitting strategy? A weird power slump

 

Its clear they are focusing on less power more contact this year as whole for the team

[Stangstag]

I'm with the posters who are complaining about the pitching development, except it applies to both hitting and pitching development at the minor and major league level.

 

The Daulton Varsho trade itself doesn't bother me, it's the fact that he comes here and at an age when he should improve he has regressed and looked awful. Maybe that is just who he is, but his minor league numbers, Arizona numbers, athleticism indicated he could be something age 26-29. Instead he's a more athletic Cavan Biggio (so far).

 

And the secondary guy they give up for Varsho, Gurriel rebounds with a new organization, addressing last years flaw (power).

 

So what was up with Gurriel anyway last year? He goes from 30 homer power in 2019/20 to 5 homer power in a full 2022? Now back to his old power? Was it injury? Hitting mechanics. Hitting strategy? A weird power slump

 

Yup its all frustrating. Could be random luck or could be an organizational issue. Or maybe just a coaching issue. Hard for us to tell really.

[Olerud363]

Its clear they are focusing on less power more contact this year as whole for the team

 

That is ironic then because they are hitting for a lower average and on base percentage than the last 2 years. So whatever they are doing it actually hurt the team batting average and on base as team hit about .265 last year and .258 this year last I checked.

 

Actually last year they were first in batting average, on base and slugging. Why would a team that is first in everything change it's philosophy too much? And they were 3rd best in not striking out.

 

If they really decided to try and strikeout even less and it backfired, another reason to fire all the low performance team and s***** hitting strategists.

 

The player changes are basically Varsho replacing Teoscar, Belt replacing Gurriel, and Kiemaier replacing Tapia. I think projections for those 3 would actually be pretty even, so most of the loss is underperformance (Varsho/Springer/Kirk)

[MikeM3]

Atkins has to go and Shapiro can stay to manage the business side only.

[Krylian]

If the Jays don't make the playoffs heads will roll

[G-Snarls]

If the Jays don't make the playoffs heads will roll

 

With this hype and this payroll, yes

[G-Snarls]

Its clear they are focusing on less power more contact this year as whole for the team

 

I don't think that's on purpose

 

More a side effect of having fewer bad defenders and more good ones

[TorontonianJD]

I can't believe Shatkins decided to extend Schneider after what he did in the wild card series lol.

 

I agree with this. But I guess they had to save face after the Montoyo fiasco.

 

And holy sh*t, I just looked at the standings and the Jays are last in the AL East. Wonder what the next moves will be. Heads have to roll.

[goldbug103]

Jays will battle Red Sox for rights to last place. Os are for real and will battle Rays for first.

[DCJaysF]

I'm with the posters who are complaining about the pitching development, except it applies to both hitting and pitching development at the minor and major league level.

 

The Daulton Varsho trade itself doesn't bother me, it's the fact that he comes here and at an age when he should improve he has regressed and looked awful. Maybe that is just who he is, but his minor league numbers, Arizona numbers, athleticism indicated he could be something age 26-29. Instead he's a more athletic Cavan Biggio (so far).

 

And the secondary guy they give up for Varsho, Gurriel rebounds with a new organization, addressing last years flaw (power).

 

So what was up with Gurriel anyway last year? He goes from 30 homer power in 2019/20 to 5 homer power in a full 2022? Now back to his old power? Was it injury? Hitting mechanics. Hitting strategy? A weird power slump

 

I think LGJ was battling some physical issues last year from what I recall, although he still hit for avg. He’s always been a decent hitter with a lot of upside potential. His brother who has had a great career has maintained that LGJ is the best hitter of the two of them.

 

I never wanted to trade LGJ tbh, but I get his fielding was subpar and sometimes his goofing around too much might have been a distraction for Vladdy.

 

As far as Varsho goes I still have high hopes but like most on here I have concerns as well. There is no question he is a great defender.

 

As far as his bat goes, we got him after he surged offensively at the end of last year. But that was over a small sample size. The scary thing is that his dreadful offensive stats right now are not that far below his lifetime stats. Lifetime heÂ’s hitting .229 with .722 OPS. So there is the scary possibility that this is just who he is.

 

I’ve seen us do this with bullpen pitchers too. A relief pitcher who wasn’t great has one good season of 60 Innings and suddenly he’s a new man and we believe he’s turned the corner only for them to regress to who they were over a larger sample size.

 

 

Not that there aren’t some examples of people actually making some changes and becoming whole new players or progressing, but a lot of the time I trust the larger sample size once you get past the first year or two of a guys career.

 

The good news is Daulton only has around 1100 AB’s in the Majors which equates to around 2 full seasons. So he’s still in the zone where I think he could make a leap forward offensively. If he puts up another full year of the same stats though then I’ll have to be inclined to believe that this is just who he is.

For better or worse we have control of him until 2027 so let’s hope for better lol.

[Olerud363]

The good news is Daulton only has around 1100 ABÂ’s in the Majors which equates to around 2 full seasons. So heÂ’s still in the zone where I think he could make a leap forward offensively. If he puts up another full year of the same stats though then IÂ’ll have to be inclined to believe that this is just who he is.

For better or worse we have control of him until 2027 so letÂ’s hope for better lol.

 

I agree with all of this. With Varsho there was a bunch of publicly available positive indicators that made the trade look good at the time.

 

1. Like you mention Varsho only had 900 ABs going into 2023.

2. Had good minor league average (.300) and k/bb

3. Was entering age 26 season which should be his prime.

4. Was athletic and had great base-running and defensive stats.

 

Anyone with an internet connection could find all that out so trade made sense. However front office should have better information than random fans with an internet connection. Watching Varsho just looks like he both can't hit and can't lay off of high velocity. That's my totally unskilled scouting report from watching 1/2 a game a day. Also seems like a nice outfielder but that the stats over-rated him last year.

 

Obviously I'm not a scout and this is all in hindsight, but just seems like the guys in the scouting room should have talked about this kind of stuff last December. Another example is Austin Martin. In hindsight he was obviously just a pretty typically coillege kid. Polished but no power or exit velocity. Easy to see looking up his stats 3 years later. But how could a professional baseball organization not pick this up before using a 5th pick on him ? To be fair, that happens all the time, but as a fan it's frustrating.

[saskjayfan]

I'm with the posters who are complaining about the pitching development, except it applies to both hitting and pitching development at the minor and major league level.

 

The Daulton Varsho trade itself doesn't bother me, it's the fact that he comes here and at an age when he should improve he has regressed and looked awful. Maybe that is just who he is, but his minor league numbers, Arizona numbers, athleticism indicated he could be something age 26-29. Instead he's a more athletic Cavan Biggio (so far).

 

And the secondary guy they give up for Varsho, Gurriel rebounds with a new organization, addressing last years flaw (power).

 

So what was up with Gurriel anyway last year? He goes from 30 homer power in 2019/20 to 5 homer power in a full 2022? Now back to his old power? Was it injury? Hitting mechanics. Hitting strategy? A weird power slump

 

If you looked at Gurriel's career numbers it shouldn't be a shocker that he's regained the power. He made some adjustments last year to be a better contact hitter. The power numbers were bound to rebound. A top 10 prospect in baseball plus Gurriel. The Varsho trade may be Atkins undoing.

[max silver]

If you looked at Gurriel's career numbers it shouldn't be a shocker that he's regained the power. He made some adjustments last year to be a better contact hitter. The power numbers were bound to rebound. A top 10 prospect in baseball plus Gurriel. The Varsho trade may be Atkins undoing.

 

I recall Gurriel had off season wrist surgery. It seems very likely that was directly behind the power slump last season. His batted ball metrics were all surprisingly close to his career norms but his barrel rate in particular cratered, and his HR/FB% did the same. He's not hitting the ball much harder on average this season, and he's not hitting more flyballs either, however he is pulling the ball a bit more so perhaps that's helped more balls leave the park.

[bones10]

Lol gurriel literally never had a war above 2 in the entire time the jays had him, him having a career year in his contract year and bitching about it is hindsight 20/20. I almost don’t even want to consider him as a piece in that trade, unless you think he’ll out WAR varsho in his one year with the diamondbacks compared to the entire time we have varsho. Moreno is where you can make a stink, but with Kirk and Jansen on the team someone had to be moved cause one of them weren’t going to play here, even with Jansen and kirks cold starts.

[max silver]

Lol gurriel literally never had a war above 2 in the entire time the jays had him, him having a career year in his contract year and bitching about it is hindsight 20/20. I almost don’t even want to consider him as a piece in that trade, unless you think he’ll out WAR varsho in his one year with the diamondbacks compared to the entire time we have varsho. Moreno is where you can make a stink, but with Kirk and Jansen on the team someone had to be moved cause one of them weren’t going to play here, even with Jansen and kirks cold starts.

 

People seem to be very quick to forget that Gurriel is one of MLB's streakiest hitters. He's capable of looking like of the best hitters on the planet for months at a time but then also completely capable of having his bat completely disappear for months at a time as well. He's defensively challenged and not much of a baserunner either, so when the bat goes cold like it's prone to doing for long stretches he isn't able to really help his team win games by doing other small things on the field.

Edited May 22, 2023 by max silver

[John_Havok]

People seem to be very quick to forget that Gurriel is one of MLB's streakiest hitters. He's capable of looking like of the best hitters on the planets for a months at a time but then also completely capable of having his bat completely disappear for months at a time as well. He's defensively challenged and not much of a baserunner either, so when the bat goes cold like it's prone to doing for long stretches he isn't able to really help his team win games by doing other small things on the field.

 

I don’t think people forgot. People like Stottlemyer or others of his ilk, all they do is bitch when things are bad, they never cheer when things are good.

 

I bet we could go back into the gdts from last year and the year before and find the exact same posters who are now crying about the trade, bitching about Gurriel and his bat all of the last 2 seasons.

[DCJaysF]

LGJ has 9.3 BWAR in 1882 ABÂ’s. He had an 127 OPS+ and a 138 OPS+ season. HeÂ’s also had two season with a slugging percentage over .500 with .541 and .534. He hadnÂ’t figured out defending in the OF yet and took a lot of horrible lines to balls. His arm was decent though.

 

I liked LGJ for his potential, itÂ’s not like he had put up amazing numbers with the Jays but he was a decent contributor. He only had two seasons where he got full playing time and those were seasons he was battling some injuries etc.

 

I always thought that one year heÂ’d put together a .300 plus avg with 30 hrs if he put it all together. He might never do that still idk. IÂ’m willing to admit he was a decent player at best but an ok number 6-7 spot in the line up.

 

I was ok with trading him though. Him and Moreno were definitely a steep price though. But as others have said, more on the Moreno side who is controllable until 2029.

 

Jury is still out on Varsho. We all know itÂ’s hard to transition to a new team and often players will press to impress and not be their best right away. Defense is strong but defensive measurements are less accurate then offensive so weÂ’ll have to see how strong year in year out.

But he has the speed and chops to play CF if needed.

 

Offense IÂ’m nervous about. At least we moved him down in the lineup until he improves, canÂ’t have him batting 4th or 5th hitting with a .638 OPS. We know he has power potential though, he hit 27 HRÂ’s last year. HeÂ’s looks like a mini Mike Trout in terms of physical stature. In fact heÂ’s thicker than Trout if baseball reference is accurate, Trout is 6Â’2 237, Varsho is 5Â’10 217 ( so really a little tank).

 

But I think the component that might have over sold the Jays management is that he can catch and use to be a catcher which weÂ’re all forgetting. So that lets us carry one less catcher on the playoff roster. Could help with the BP in terms of arms we can carry etc.

 

All said though itÂ’s very clear that at the moment Arizona is getting much more out of LGJ and Moreno then we are yet of Varsho.

[M.E.]

Likely line for Trevor Kelley tonight: 7IP, 5 hits, 1ER. It should be 2 IP, 10 hits, 10ER

[Olerud363]

Likely line for Trevor Kelley tonight: 7IP, 5 hits, 1ER. It should be 2 IP, 10 hits, 10ER

 

I think he is just an opener, but still, they should hammer him for a couple of runs than hammer the bulk guy for 5 more. They probably won't though.

 

Another advantage of the opener is that they can work with him for a couple of hours before the game going over who he is going to face, and every pitch he'll throw to each of them.

 

Normally when a reliever comes in it is a bit random who he faces, may or may not be guys on, may be in the middle of an inning. They can also give him his redbull at exactly the right time so it has maximum effect by gametime.

[gruber92]

Too bad Clement is not on the 40 man. I would like to have seen him called up to see what he can do instead of Otto Lopez.

[John_Havok]

Too bad Clement is not on the 40 man. I would like to have seen him called up to see what he can do instead of Otto Lopez.

 

It is interesting to wonder isn’t it? Instead we get Lopez, who just like Lukes will be relegated to the bench 99% of the time and pinch run every few games. It’s almost like the Jays are cool with running their hitters with 2 fewer roster spots than every other team, and then there’s Biggio….

[Terminator]

Too bad Clement is not on the 40 man. I would like to have seen him called up to see what he can do instead of Otto Lopez.

 

Yeah what Clement is doing is interesting and Lopez has sucked so bad this year. I don't know what his deal is.

 

But about 140 AAA ABs ago, Lopez was a real prospect having a good year and Clement was a nobody. Maybe Clement would have been the better choice but like you said 40 man roster considerations probably played a role. Regardless, I hope they give Lopez the lion's share of the bench ABs to see what he's got.

[Terminator]

One thing to consider is that Belt is likely a component of the Varsho for Moreno and Gurriel trade.

 

Gurriel has one year and about 6 mil left on his deal and he was going to be getting a lot of his PT at DH. The Jays wanted to get more left-handed so they turned around and gave Belt about 9 mil.

 

So the trade is more like Moreno, Gurriel and the 3 mil bucks they would have saved for Varsho and Belt.

 

I'm not sure that Belt is going to help this make look any better though lol. But he has been improving this month.

[John_Havok]

One thing to consider is that Belt is likely a component of the Varsho for Moreno and Gurriel trade.

 

Gurriel has one year and about 6 mil left on his deal and he was going to be getting a lot of his PT at DH. The Jays wanted to get more left-handed so they turned around and gave Belt about 9 mil.

 

So the trade is more like Moreno, Gurriel and the 3 mil bucks they would have saved for Varsho and Belt.

 

I'm not sure that Belt is going to help this make look any better though lol. But he has been improving this month.

 

114 wRC+ on the season and climbing (190 in May!?)

 

I bet if he hit that 125 ROS projection the Jays would be fine with that. I doubt they considered a return to the 150-170 he was running at in 2020 and 2021 as realistic for a full season