General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2023)

[Orgfiller]

Wells is pitching well also and Gibson is keeping them in games.. If you have 4 starters anda great pen, you can go places... Just ask the Rays..

The Rays have the third best rotation in the MLB by WAR, best on a per-inning basis - lead the MLB in K/9, ERA, FIP and xFIP. They are not the same at all. Not to mention the Rays are absolutely pummeling the competition offensively, the gap between them and the next closest position player group is as big as second place and 24th place, which is absurd.

 

Nobody is keeping them "in games", their rotation has an ERA over 5 which is 9th worst in the league if you want to go by "results". Kyle Gibson and Tyler Wells f***ing suck. Their only starter with any sort of upside is Grayson Rodriguez, Kyle Bradish has pitcherish traits but mostly has sucked and doesn't project that well at all. Eventually if your rotation blows the bullpen will start to feel it as well, as we very well know with the Blue Jays this season.

[Orgfiller]

So everyone s*** on Ross Atkins all offseason for not getting enough swing and miss guys. The Jays pitching staff as a collective currently have the 7th highest K rate in the bigs, 10th highest from the starters and 7th highest in the bullpen who have an excellent 10.24 K/9. Is everyone still concerned about swing and miss in the bullpen, or has that narrative shifted to a different discussion?

[jaysblue]

A lot of teams look different now than two weeks ago. Like the Sheriff said, 2.5 months is still an eternity in baseball.

 

- Mets are 18-19 and now 7 GB behind ATL. Would have thought the Mets and Braves would be battling for top spot in the division but that doesn't look like it will happen.

 

- Dodgers have turned it around recently, going 8-2 in their last 10. They looked mediocre a couple weeks ago, now they look like they're the team to beat in the division.

 

- Giants, while still just 16-20, have played better and looking more like a .500 team.

 

- Pirates are starting to show their true colours now. 1-9 in their last 10.

 

- Brewers have been disappointing, 2-8 in their last 10. Two weeks ago, they were looking like one of the elite teams in the NL.

 

- Astros started off mediocre but have played much better baseball as of late.

[glory]

If the Jays won the two games in Philly, we wouldn't even be talking about 2026.

 

Yes frustrating losses will admit.

 

If Jays take 2 of 3 from ATL and 2 of 3 from the Yankees, we'll be talking about how amazing this team is!

 

The 2026 talk doesn't negate the fact that 2023 (and likely/hopefully 2024-25) should be good, competitive seasons. It's just looking more and more likely that this is going to be a 3 year window, followed by a forced rebuild. I guess we have to hope Atkins has some Houdini trades left in him where he trades minor league junk and gets good, controllable MLB talent in return.

[Olerud363]

The Rays have the third best rotation in the MLB by WAR, best on a per-inning basis - lead the MLB in K/9, ERA, FIP and xFIP. They are not the same at all. Not to mention the Rays are absolutely pummeling the competition offensively, the gap between them and the next closest position player group is as big as second place and 24th place, which is absurd.

 

Nobody is keeping them "in games", their rotation has an ERA over 5 which is 9th worst in the league if you want to go by "results". Kyle Gibson and Tyler Wells f***ing suck. Their only starter with any sort of upside is Grayson Rodriguez, Kyle Bradish has pitcherish traits but mostly has sucked and doesn't project that well at all. Eventually if your rotation blows the bullpen will start to feel it as well, as we very well know with the Blue Jays this season.

 

This years Rays yes. In past years Rays have had somewhat meddling rotations. In fact the 100 win 2021 Rays had 2 horrible starting pitchers leading the team in innings.

 

Yarbaraugh and Wacha had 5+ ERAs. However somehow the Rays made it work because everyone else was good and bullpen was good.

 

In 2021 the Rays won 100 games with bulk starters that weren't that great. Seattle last year is another example. Smart organizations with a couple of bulk starters that aren't the best, but a bunch of good bullpen arms and up and comers will do fine.

 

Bradish does project not to great, but not horrible and struck out 288 in 220 minor league innings. Kind of guy a smart organization will find a way to get 120 good innings from.

[jaysblue]

The 2026 talk doesn't negate the fact that 2023 (and likely/hopefully 2024-25) should be good, competitive seasons. It's just looking more and more likely that this is going to be a 3 year window, followed by a forced rebuild. I guess we have to hope Atkins has some Houdini trades left in him where he trades minor league junk and gets good, controllable MLB talent in return.

 

It's always been a three-year window in my book, four if you include last season. If the Jays don't win or get to a World Series during these next three years, Atkins is likely gone anyways. He's not staying on as GM forever.

 

How long did the retooling take after the 2016 season? They expected to compete in 2017 but injuries to their star players changed things. 2018 and 2019 were tough years and 2020 was a shortened season but the team did make the Postseason. In 2021, they missed out by only 1 game.

[Olerud363]

The 2026 talk doesn't negate the fact that 2023 (and likely/hopefully 2024-25) should be good, competitive seasons. It's just looking more and more likely that this is going to be a 3 year window, followed by a forced rebuild. I guess we have to hope Atkins has some Houdini trades left in him where he trades minor league junk and gets good, controllable MLB talent in return.

 

They've already had 3 years of the window. 2020 was weird but by the end of it they had Ryu, Ray, Shoemaker, Walker, Stripling, Biggio/Teoscar/Gurriel at their peak value... don't know what moves would have available without Covid and the weird half season, but in September of that year they actually had a nice team.

 

So it may end up being a 6 year window. It is already the first time they had back to back 90 win seasons since early 90s.

 

Bo/Vlad still haven't won a playoff game and they've done 4 years of their 6.5. It goes fast. Teoscar/Gurriel/Rowdy and Biggio (collapse) already done.

 

It's dissapointing that the 'sustainable' winner thing looks like it might nor happen, though minor league systems are hard to predict. Since 2002 and Riccardi they've all promised this magical prospect machine which will provide a young player or two every year, and then all of a sudden they are signing Frank Thomas/Tulo/Springer along with a bunch of others... lol. Happened with every regime at about year 4.

[Brownie19]

So everyone s*** on Ross Atkins all offseason for not getting enough swing and miss guys. The Jays pitching staff as a collective currently have the 7th highest K rate in the bigs, 10th highest from the starters and 7th highest in the bullpen who have an excellent 10.24 K/9. Is everyone still concerned about swing and miss in the bullpen, or has that narrative shifted to a different discussion?

 

Fully expect the narrative and goal posts will just move. Or they'll just blame Schneider for mis-using the bullpen. Rinse and repeat.

[Carlos Danger]

The Rays have the third best rotation in the MLB by WAR, best on a per-inning basis - lead the MLB in K/9, ERA, FIP and xFIP. They are not the same at all. Not to mention the Rays are absolutely pummeling the competition offensively, the gap between them and the next closest position player group is as big as second place and 24th place, which is absurd.

 

Nobody is keeping them "in games", their rotation has an ERA over 5 which is 9th worst in the league if you want to go by "results". Kyle Gibson and Tyler Wells f***ing suck. Their only starter with any sort of upside is Grayson Rodriguez, Kyle Bradish has pitcherish traits but mostly has sucked and doesn't project that well at all. Eventually if your rotation blows the bullpen will start to feel it as well, as we very well know with the Blue Jays this season.

 

I was making a general reference to the Rays org as a whole and not specifically this season. The Rays were using 4 SPs the past few years and doing a lot of opener stuff the 5th day...

 

My point is, with a very good pen you can have success with just a few decent SPs.. 2015 Royals if their starter could make it to the 5th, it was lock down pen from the 6th through the 9th.

 

That was before the Royals acquired Cueto. The Orioles have the assets to go out and get a damn good SP/s at the deadline if they can just hang in there.

 

The Orioles are not as sucky as some on this board are saying. They also have the ability to do a hell of a lot more than us or the Yankees, or the Red Sox for that matter at the deadline.

[Spanky99]

They have Rodriquez and Bradish with not many innings and high k-rates and minor league numbers this board would love, and then they have most of their innings pitched by starters with low k-rates who WAR will hate. So it is a bit deceptive.

 

If the crafty veterans hold it together with their low k-rates and Rodriquez and Bradish perform the rotation will be fine at run prevention but under-rated by WAR.

 

You'll likely get a better picture by looking at their bWAR or even their RA9 WAR.

[Carlos Danger]

So everyone s*** on Ross Atkins all offseason for not getting enough swing and miss guys. The Jays pitching staff as a collective currently have the 7th highest K rate in the bigs, 10th highest from the starters and 7th highest in the bullpen who have an excellent 10.24 K/9. Is everyone still concerned about swing and miss in the bullpen, or has that narrative shifted to a different discussion?

 

I think the swing and miss topic was because of lack of previous results. Those stats can all be padded by games against Detroit and the Pirates etc...I honestly have no idea what the breakdown is... Great to be 7th place, but what does that mean in the big picture??

 

What I do know, is that amongst other issues, our pen is not getting overall results. We are blowing saves, giving up GW runs in tie game or allowing a blow out from what was a close game so that the offence has no chance.

 

Our pen blew it in Boston and it blew in Philly... coupled with s*** D... = LLLLLL

[Spanky99]

lol... Chicken Little s*** going on up in this bitch, also the Orioles rotation suxxxxxxx. 2 guys, the rest are GARB!

[M.E.]

What bad couple of weeks? they've won 4 of the 6 series they've played since leaving Houston.

 

3-7 over last 10. OK your right not a full 14 days.

[Spanky99]

3-7 over last 10. OK your right not a full 14 days.

 

You're not wrong, that's terrible. Get better Jays, FFS's.

[Governator]

Next 14 games: Braves, Yankees, O's, Rays.. hopefully a healthy Vlad & Springer in the line up but I'd say this stretch should tell us if we can compete with Tier 1.

[Spanky99]

Next 14 games: Braves, Yankees, O's, Rays.. hopefully a healthy Vlad & Springer in the line up but I'd say this stretch should tell us if we can compete with Tier 1.

 

No doubt, go out and win series Toronto, no excuse.

[Omar]

I can give my reason. It's May of 2023 and we are in the middle of season where 2026 should likely be one of the furthest topics from discussion. It also seems very reactionary to a bad couple of weeks.

 

It really has nothing to do with the current performance of the team. It is simply conjecture on the long term viability of a team with or without one of Bo and Vladdy with very little in the current pipeline. We are allowed to think in terms beyond the current season, or no? Don’t worry, I won’t bring it up again so we can go back to talking about Manoah’s weight.

[Terminator]

So everyone s*** on Ross Atkins all offseason for not getting enough swing and miss guys. The Jays pitching staff as a collective currently have the 7th highest K rate in the bigs, 10th highest from the starters and 7th highest in the bullpen who have an excellent 10.24 K/9. Is everyone still concerned about swing and miss in the bullpen, or has that narrative shifted to a different discussion?

 

Amen! Brought this up last week but I had to throw in some Biggio and Jansen comments on top of it so everyone ignored it lol

[WryNGinger]

Wow...Belt with a .956 OPS last 15 games. I told you guys not to doubt him! (f***ing ginger is lying again...)

[mphenhef]

 

It's dissapointing that the 'sustainable' winner thing looks like it might nor happen, though minor league systems are hard to predict. Since 2002 and Riccardi they've all promised this magical prospect machine which will provide a young player or two every year, and then all of a sudden they are signing Frank Thomas/Tulo/Springer along with a bunch of others... lol. Happened with every regime at about year 4.

 

AA dealt many away but he also rebuilt the system quickly to the point where he could deal guys away twice (2013 and then again in 2015). Even on today's team, Vlad, Jansen, Mayza and Romano were signed/drafted by AA's regime. The Syndergaard trade was the one that you wish he didn't make of course.

[mphenhef]

Building the farm for a sustainable winner doesnt simply mean keeping every prospect they ever have. It means a combination of keeping them and bringing them up (Bo, Vlad, Kirk, Espinal, Jansen, Biggio, Manoah, Romano, Pearson, Mayza) or trading them for other assets which they did to acquire Berrios and others.

 

It's not a good look for this regime when after 7 years, 4 of the 10 keepers are from the previous regime and Biggio, Espinal and Pearson are 3 of your 6.

[gruber92]

Hindsight is 20/20 and it's super early, but which trade scenario would you prefer? The Moreno/Gurriel for Varsho or if the Pirates would have traded for Kirk /Gurriel for Reynolds?

[Olerud363]

Hindsight is 20/20 and it's super early, but which trade scenario would you prefer? The Moreno/Gurriel for Varsho or if the Pirates would have traded for Kirk /Gurriel for Reynolds?

 

Kirk/Varsho have a lot more upside than Reynolds/Moreno though right now Reynolds and Moreno are playing better.

 

Kirk has elite contact skills and an elite eye and a huge hitting ceiling, Varsho is a great defensive player and hit .300 .372 .510 in the minors. His ceiling is hitting like Reynolds but with better baserunning and defense.

 

It's impossible to predict what any player is going to do, but Kirk and Varsho are hitting .235 together vs Moreno and Reynolds hitting .300 together. Yet Kirk and Varsho aren't too far behind in WAR because of their other skills.

 

If they all 'regressed' to hitting .280 then Kirk/Varsho would be much better players with their other skills.

 

EDIT - I know Varsho is a .230 lifetime hitter, the idea of 'regressing' to .280 is based on his minor league stats and fact he is entering his prime years. 'Regressing' may not be the right word, but based on minor league stats .230 may not be Varsho's 'true' talent level + he is entering his prime (26-28) 3 year period.

[Brownie19]

Hindsight is 20/20 and it's super early, but which trade scenario would you prefer? The Moreno/Gurriel for Varsho or if the Pirates would have traded for Kirk /Gurriel for Reynolds?

 

Reynolds can't play CF (or can't play CF much longer) and the Jays still needed that long term solution in CF (I expect Varsho to take over full time next year when KK leaves). 5 years of Varsho is also going to cost a s*** ton less than Reynolds (+ no guarantee he signs and extension with us).

 

So regardless of the early season results - I MUCH prefer the Varsho deal still.

[Stangstag]

Hindsight is 20/20 and it's super early, but which trade scenario would you prefer? The Moreno/Gurriel for Varsho or if the Pirates would have traded for Kirk /Gurriel for Reynolds?

 

Varsho still the better trade there IMO, Bryan Reynolds had 3 years left vs Varsho’s 4, and Kirk is better than Moreno

[Stangstag]

Reynolds can't play CF (or can't play CF much longer) and the Jays still needed that long term solution in CF (I expect Varsho to take over full time next year when KK leaves). 5 years of Varsho is also going to cost a s*** ton less than Reynolds (+ no guarantee he signs and extension with us).

 

So regardless of the early season results - I MUCH prefer the Varsho deal still.

 

And this too, Varsho probably plays CF full time after this year

[max silver]

Wow...Belt with a .956 OPS last 15 games. I told you guys not to doubt him! (f***ing ginger is lying again...)

 

Yeah Belt looked like he should retire after his first six games, but he's bounced back and been pretty damn good since then. His last 16 games he's produced a 154 WRC+ backed up by pretty decent peripherals/exit velocity, save for his still too high 35.5% k rate.

[max silver]

Reynolds can't play CF (or can't play CF much longer) and the Jays still needed that long term solution in CF (I expect Varsho to take over full time next year when KK leaves). 5 years of Varsho is also going to cost a s*** ton less than Reynolds (+ no guarantee he signs and extension with us).

 

So regardless of the early season results - I MUCH prefer the Varsho deal still.

 

I just don't know how many years Varsho will be able to effectively man center field as he appears to be slowly losing speed over time, and he wasn't really a burner to start with. He seems to have great instincts/get great jumps though so at least that part of his game should age a little more gracefully.

[max silver]

Hindsight is 20/20 and it's super early, but which trade scenario would you prefer? The Moreno/Gurriel for Varsho or if the Pirates would have traded for Kirk /Gurriel for Reynolds?

 

I see next to no chance that the Pirates would have made that deal. They already had a great catching prospect of their own and were also asking for the moon in Reynolds trade talks.

[BigCecil]

First game of 2nd Q of season today. 92 W pace for the first Q. Not too shabby.

 

Tough test vs Strider. Lets hope the Bassitt Hound can match up.

 

Thought we might see Calgary's own Soroka on Sunday but AA said he won't be available yet for it.

 

Will catch 3 NYY games next week in person - first ones of the season. Looking forward to it.