General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2023)

[connorp]

His sprint speed has been slowly declining since peaking at 28.4 ft/second in 2021. He's down to an average of 27.9 ft/second so far this season. I just have a hard time seeing him continuing to be an elite center field defender if this trend continues.

 

He’s not built like a gliding gazelle, so makes sense

[max silver]

And acceleration. Dude seems to get to top speed in 2 or 3 strides.

 

Acceleration is something that I wish Statcast directly measured, as well as directly displaying top overall sprint speeds as well. Average sprint speed is really only showing a small part of the overall picture.

[G-Snarls]

But why? Jansen has never had a season anywhere as good as Kirk's 2022, and is closer to exiting his prime than Kirk is to entering his lol. Defensively he wasn't even as good as Kirk last year, and the latter's bat is better. His only true advantage over Kirky is he's a significantly better runner, much like 99% of the league lol.

 

I just think Jansen is the better all around catcher. I think he's better at blocking, game calling and managing the pitching staff. (I grant there is no way to easily quantify this so it's somewhat subjective).

 

Kirk will of course rack up more hits. But he's slow AF and I just don't think the overall defense is as good.

[max silver]

interestingly his outfielder jump has cratered this year, from 99th percentile to 47th

 

i bet that improves dramatically going forward.

 

Perhaps part of this could be due to primarily playing a less familiar position in left field.

[G-Snarls]

He’s not built like a gliding gazelle, so makes sense

 

He's built like a tight end

[Orgfiller]

I wouldn't necessarily choose Jansen over Kirk, however preferring Jansen is hardly indefensible. Starting from 2021 when Kirk became more of a regular Jansen has actually outproduced Kirk in overall value on a rate basis. Jansen comes in at 3.96 FWAR/550 vs Kirk at 3.17 FWAR/550. Jansen has had a hard time staying on the field, but when on the field he played like a 4.5-5 WAR player in 2022, and sustained this type of production despite having a lot of starts and stops due to making several trips to the injured list. I think it's up in the air what kind of offensive player he eventually settles in as, but I don't think the power surge over the second half of 2021 and entire season in 2022 is some kind of fluke.

 

Jansen's lack of availability is a legitimate concern though, and I still feel like a portion of his success has been SSS. Jansen's PAs from 2021-2023 are the same amount as Kirk had all of 2022. The projections like Jansen, but they still view Kirk as more valuable on a per rate basis. Jansen is both prone to injury and hot/cold streaks, if he wasn't injured for a lot of 2021 and 2022 there's no way of knowing if his numbers would look any better or (most likely) any worse since he would've also had to deal with stretches of less than elite performance. Like he's not the true talent 140 wRC+ bat from last year, so if he regresses to 115-120 over a full season he's going to look worse on a per-game basis.

[max silver]

I just think Jansen is the better all around catcher. I think he's better at blocking, game calling and managing the pitching staff. (I grant there is no way to easily quantify this so it's somewhat subjective).

 

Kirk will of course rack up more hits. But he's slow AF and I just don't think the overall defense is as good.

 

Statcast has a blocking leaderboard. According to their methodology Kirk is one of MLB's best blocking catchers since the start of 2022. He leads in blocks above average per game at 0.21. Interestingly enough Jansen shows up in third place in the same metric, so each of these guys are great in this skill.

[Orgfiller]

I just think Jansen is the better all around catcher. I think he's better at blocking, game calling and managing the pitching staff. (I grant there is no way to easily quantify this so it's somewhat subjective).

 

Kirk will of course rack up more hits. But he's slow AF and I just don't think the overall defense is as good.

 

I think Kirk's defense is really underrated. Last year he was a much better framer than Jansen and also an excellent blocker, he's not just some potato behind the dish. Game calling and managing the pitching staff is such a difficult thing to quantify that I don't even know if I can accept that as a real argument, he was Manoah's personal catcher last year and look how well that went for us. Manoah sure likes pitching to him, and I don't see why the rest of the pitching staff wouldn't either.

 

In fact, I just looked it up. Kirk leads the entire MLB in blocking runs above average: https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/catcher-blocking?players=592663-2023-143&selected_idx=0

 

The man is a rock behind the plate.

[John_Havok]

Acceleration is something that I wish Statcast directly measured, as well as directly displaying top overall sprint speeds as well. Average sprint speed is really only showing a small part of the overall picture.

 

The way they calculate the average sprint speed is good though.

 

defined as “feet per second in a player’s fastest one-second window” on individual plays. For a player’s seasonal average, the following two types of plays currently qualify for inclusion in Sprint Speed. The best of these runs, approximately two-thirds, are averaged for a player’s seasonal average.

* Runs of two bases or more on non-homers, excluding being a runner on second base when an extra base hit happens

* Home to first on “topped” or “weakly hit” balls.

 

Basically they only take the plays where players are actually trying to run hard, and average those out.

[Orgfiller]

Statcast has a blocking leaderboard. According to their methodology Kirk is one of MLB's best blocking catchers since the start of 2022. He leads in blocks above average per game at 0.21. Interestingly enough Jansen shows up in third place in the same metric, so each of these guys are great in this skill.

 

Yup, Kirk is second since the start of 2022 in blocking runs above average, with 18 BRAA, trailing Realmuto by 2 in half as many chances. He's elite at it.

[Carlos Danger]

Perhaps part of this could be due to primarily playing a less familiar position in left field.

 

I really think that is it.. I always found it harder to play left field than CF because in LF the ball is normally hit more directly at you where in CF you can take an angle to it. Hence, you would be more likely to be getting better jumps etc on an angle ball vs direct balls.

 

heheheh he said balls!

[G-Snarls]

I think Kirk's defense is really underrated. Last year he was a much better framer than Jansen and also an excellent blocker, he's not just some potato behind the dish. Game calling and managing the pitching staff is such a difficult thing to quantify that I don't even know if I can accept that as a real argument, he was Manoah's personal catcher last year and look how well that went for us. Manoah sure likes pitching to him, and I don't see why the rest of the pitching staff wouldn't either.

 

In fact, I just looked it up. Kirk leads the entire MLB in blocking runs above average: https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/catcher-blocking?players=592663-2023-143&selected_idx=0

 

The man is a rock behind the plate.

 

Yes they are both good at blocking. I shouldn't call that an advantage for Jansen.

[max silver]

Jansen's lack of availability is a legitimate concern though, and I still feel like a portion of his success has been SSS. Jansen's PAs from 2021-2023 are the same amount as Kirk had all of 2022. The projections like Jansen, but they still view Kirk as more valuable on a per rate basis. Jansen is both prone to injury and hot/cold streaks, if he wasn't injured for a lot of 2021 and 2022 there's no way of knowing if his numbers would look any better or (most likely) any worse since he would've also had to deal with stretches of less than elite performance. Like he's not the true talent 140 wRC+ bat from last year, so if he regresses to 115-120 over a full season he's going to look worse on a per-game basis.

 

I guess some of this depends on what you would ultimately qualify as a small sample, but Jansen was a legitimate offensive force for most of two seasons. He offered a tantalizing glimpse of power potential over early May 2021 until the end of season in 2022. After a return from the injured list (if I recall correctly) he mashed for the following 121 game appearances. It's really too bad he found himself on the injured list so frequently, but he managed a 148 WRC+ over nearly two full seasons, just without a ton of actual game appearances during this time. 4.8 FWAR/148 WRC+ is a lot more than Kirk has shown at any point of his own career up to this point.

[John_Havok]

I guess some of this depends on what you would ultimately qualify as a small sample, but Jansen was a legitimate offensive force for most of two seasons. He offered a tantalizing glimpse of power potential over early May 2021 until the end of season in 2022. After a return from the injured list (if I recall correctly) he mashed for the following 121 game appearances. It's really too bad he found himself on the injured list so frequently, but he managed a 148 WRC+ over nearly two full seasons, just without a ton of actual game appearances during this time. 4.8 FWAR/148 WRC+ is a lot more than Kirk has shown at any point of his own career up to this point.

 

Kirk and Jansen pretty much represent the high floor and high ceiling. I don't think there's much to argue that Kirks floor is higher with his contact ability and average-ish power, whereas Jansen can go on a heater for a few weeks and (if healthy) would be a legit 30 HR threat at his peak, but is also prone to cratering for stretches. Small rolling hills Kirk vs high peaks and low valleys Jansen.

[Orgfiller]

I guess some of this depends on what you would ultimately qualify as a small sample, but Jansen was a legitimate offensive force for most of two seasons. He offered a tantalizing glimpse of power potential over early May 2021 until the end of season in 2022. After a return from the injured list (if I recall correctly) he mashed for the following 121 game appearances. It's really too bad he found himself on the injured list so frequently, but he managed a 148 WRC+ over nearly two full seasons, just without a ton of actual game appearances during this time. 4.8 FWAR/148 WRC+ is a lot more than Kirk has shown at any point of his own career up to this point.

 

Since everyone keeps bringing this up as "the only time Kirk has had power", from April 2022 - June 2022 Kirk had 246 PAs with a 166 wRC+, I don't know how to get the WAR values for that, but presumably it would've been much better on a WAR/game basis given that he also provides very good defense behind the plate. Unfortunately for Kirk, he was actually healthy all year so his numbers understandably took a tumble (regressed) the rest of the season. But if he got injured for the year on July 1st then Kirk would look incredible on a WAR/game basis. This is why this argument about Jansen doesn't sit too well for me, yeah he was good, of course, but he never sustained the success because he would get injured for long stretches at any point where his numbers could've regressed.

 

Jansen's numbers btw did not come over "nearly two full seasons", but rather barely one full one.

[Brownie19]

Yup, Kirk is second since the start of 2022 in blocking runs above average, with 18 BRAA, trailing Realmuto by 2 in half as many chances. He's elite at it.

 

This seems really ironic given that almost everyone wants to compare Moreno to Realmuto like you have to be this athletic freak to be a great defensive catcher. Meanwhile, our very own oompa loompa is right there with Realmuto in terms of blocking.

[G-Snarls]

Know what's great? Having two above average catchers.

 

I guess all things considered, my biggest concern is how well Kirk would hold up if/when Jansen has an extended IL stint and he has to catch a lot more games.

[max silver]

Since everyone keeps bringing this up as "the only time Kirk has had power", from April 2022 - June 2022 Kirk had 246 PAs with a 166 wRC+, I don't know how to get the WAR values for that, but presumably it would've been much better on a WAR/game basis given that he also provides very good defense behind the plate. Unfortunately for Kirk, he was actually healthy all year so his numbers understandably took a tumble (regressed) the rest of the season. But if he got injured for the year on July 1st then Kirk would look incredible on a WAR/game basis. This is why this argument about Jansen doesn't sit too well for me, yeah he was good, of course, but he never sustained the success because he would get injured for long stretches at any point where his numbers could've regressed.

 

Jansen's numbers btw did not come over "nearly two full seasons", but rather barely one full one.

 

The numbers I referenced from Jansen ran from early May of 2021 until the end of 2022, that's nearly two full MLB seasons. I also referenced the fact that Jansen only played about a full season's worth of games for a typical starting catcher during this time due to injuries. It's certainly possible he would experience cold stretches if he were to remain healthy more often and experience the typical accumulation of fatigue of a typical MLB regular, however he managed to maintain this type of production over several seasons, despite a ton of stops and starts due to trips to the injured list. He maintained excellent peripherals, barrel rate, plate discipline etc. which to me suggests this wasn't entirely an unsustainable fluke run of success.

 

I was curious what's lead to the lack of success this season, and one thing that stands out is inability to get balls into the air to the pull side. He has hit a larger percentage of pull side fly balls out of the park compared to 2022, however far too frequently his batted balls to the pull side have been on the ground. Another change is that Jansen has been hitting the ball more frequently to right field with awful results to show for it. Hopefully this isn't a conscious choice as he was easily at his most productive when pulling the ball in the air.

 

Kirk managed to stay healthy for the entire season of 2022, but it's not out of the question that he wore down as the season progressed due to how much his overall production reduced as the season went on. I'm not one to rag on the guy at all as I think he's almost the perfect backup catcher who's bat is so good that he can regularly DH on days when he's not catching, and while he is catching he is a great defender. I just won't ignore the fact that his build greatly limits how frequently he is available to catch.

[John_Havok]

Know what's great? Having two above average catchers.

 

I guess all things considered, my biggest concern is how well Kirk would hold up if/when Jansen has an extended IL stint and he has to catch a lot more games.

 

He wouldn't hold up well at all most likely. We saw what Kirk looked like down the stretch last season and Jansen had 2 month long stretches on the injury list early in the season. Kirk's body type just will not hold up over long periods of being played as a catcher.

[max silver]

Know what's great? Having two above average catchers.

 

I guess all things considered, my biggest concern is how well Kirk would hold up if/when Jansen has an extended IL stint and he has to catch a lot more games.

 

That's where the team's strength at catcher takes a real nosedive as it necessitates running a depth player from AAA at catcher a good chunk of the time.

[Orgfiller]

This seems really ironic given that almost everyone wants to compare Moreno to Realmuto like you have to be this athletic freak to be a great defensive catcher. Meanwhile, our very own oompa loompa is right there with Realmuto in terms of blocking.

 

It's definitely ironic. Kirk has the hitting and defense of Realmuto, but Moreno has the speed and he's the one with the Realmuto ceiling lol. Yes I'm being obtuse.

[Orgfiller]

The numbers I referenced from Jansen ran from early May of 2021 until the end of 2022, that's nearly two full MLB seasons. I also referenced the fact that Jansen only played about a full season's worth of games for a typical starting catcher during this time due to injuries. It's certainly possible he would experience cold stretches if he were to remain healthy more often and experience the typical accumulation of fatigue of a typical MLB regular, however he managed to maintain this type of production over several seasons, despite a ton of stops and starts due to trips to the injured list. He maintained excellent peripherals, barrel rate, plate discipline etc. which to me suggests this wasn't entirely an unsustainable fluke run of success.

 

I was curious what's lead to the lack of success this season, and one thing that stands out is inability to get balls into the air to the pull side. He has hit a larger percentage of pull side fly balls out of the park compared to 2022, however far too frequently his batted balls to the pull side have been on the ground.

 

Kirk managed to stay healthy for the entire season of 2022, but it's not out of the question that he wore down as the season progressed due to how much his overall production reduced as the season went on. I'm not one to rag on the guy at all as I think he's almost the perfect backup catcher who's bat is so good that he can regularly DH on days when he's not catching, and while he is catching he is a great defender. I just won't ignore the fact that his build greatly limits how frequently he is available to catch.

 

You can't say two full MLB seasons when those stretches only add up to a season's worth of PAs/games sample size lol.

 

Wearing down is also a pretty normal thing to happen to a catcher as the season drags on. Yeah obviously Kirk doesn't have the body type to handle catching 130 games, but at least he stays healthy enough to catch the bulk of games and provide value at DH when he's starting behind the plate. I also think to some extent him catching as few games as he does is in part due to our luxury in riches at the catching position. If Jansen didn't exist and Moreno didn't get his feet wet last year, Kirk probably could have caught close to/over 100 games, but the team can afford to DH him to give him rest and still get production out of his bat.

 

This is all to say, I'd take Kirk over Jansen every time. But it's great that we have both and hopefully they both stay healthy these next couple of seasons.

[Carlos Danger]

That's where the team's strength at catcher takes a real nosedive as it necessitates running a depth player from AAA at catcher a good chunk of the time.

 

I know the Jays don't want to do it, and it takes away Varsho's OF defense which is a lot of value. However, Varsho was not a crappy catcher... That is not why he was in the OF. He was just so good in the OF and AZ had other catchers at the time... Varsho was a solid catcher if it ever comes to that...

Edited May 12, 2023 by Carlos Danger

[jaysblue]

This seems really ironic given that almost everyone wants to compare Moreno to Realmuto like you have to be this athletic freak to be a great defensive catcher. Meanwhile, our very own oompa loompa is right there with Realmuto in terms of blocking.

 

You're such a Blue Jay apologist and homer Brownie. There is nothing wrong with constructive criticism of certain players or pitchers or even the front office.

 

Kirk is a great catcher when he's clicking on all cylinders. Right now he's not clicking in terms of power. Only 4 extra base hits so far this season is very disappointing. If he doesn't rediscover his power stroke, what is wrong with saying he will be around a .700 OPS bat? Heck even in a down season if he only hits .260-.270 with a .370 OBP/.350 SLG and 2-3 WAR with strong defense behind the plate and working well with the Jays staff, I don't think anyone would complain.

 

I don't think anyone said Moreno is a guarantee to become the next Realmuto. It's a possibility if Moreno adds some muscle and develops more power over the next couple of seasons, he could turn into a similar bat as Realmuto in terms of hitting and power. I've also acknowledged that Moreno could just end up being a singles hitter with very little power.

 

Nobody is saying you need an athletic freak as a catcher to be great defensively. Kirk is very solid defensively, though as well he's had the privilege of sharing the catching duties with Jansen the past two seasons, therefore keeping him fresh when he's behind the plate and also allowing him to focus on his hitting when he DH's. I wonder how Kirk's build holds up both offensively and defensively over a full season if he had to catch 140-145 games per season versus 78 games he caught in 2022.

 

It's a luxury to have two solid catching options behind the plate who can both play solid defensively and hit as well. Lets hope Kirk can go on a hot streak with the bat over the next month or two.

[jaysblue]

You can't say two full MLB seasons when those stretches only add up to a season's worth of PAs/games sample size lol.

 

Wearing down is also a pretty normal thing to happen to a catcher as the season drags on. Yeah obviously Kirk doesn't have the body type to handle catching 130 games, but at least he stays healthy enough to catch the bulk of games and provide value at DH when he's starting behind the plate. I also think to some extent him catching as few games as he does is in part due to our luxury in riches at the catching position. If Jansen didn't exist and Moreno didn't get his feet wet last year, Kirk probably could have caught close to/over 100 games, but the team can afford to DH him to give him rest and still get production out of his bat.

 

This is all to say, I'd take Kirk over Jansen every time. But it's great that we have both and hopefully they both stay healthy these next couple of seasons.

 

Kirk wore down last season as you pointed out and only started 78 games behind the plate. You even now just admitted he doesn't have the build or body type to catch 130-140 games per season. I think we can both agree with that.

 

I'm not sure Moreno comes with the same question mark. Yeah he'll wear down over a full season as well, but I don't think he'll have an issue starting 130-140 games behind the plate, as long as he stays healthy. Probably why teams like Arizona valued Moreno more than Kirk, but we don't really know.

 

Blue Jays definitely have benefited having both Jansen and Kirk in the fold like you said. With Jansen, you don't have to worry about starting Kirk over 100 games. You can still keep him fresh and his bat in the lineup as a DH, and visa versa with Jansen who has had his own issues of staying on the field over the past several seasons. So overall, Blue Jays are in a good place with both Kirk and Jansen behind the plate over the next 2-3 seasons.

[max silver]

Kirk and Jansen pretty much represent the high floor and high ceiling. I don't think there's much to argue that Kirks floor is higher with his contact ability and average-ish power, whereas Jansen can go on a heater for a few weeks and (if healthy) would be a legit 30 HR threat at his peak, but is also prone to cratering for stretches. Small rolling hills Kirk vs high peaks and low valleys Jansen.

 

 

 

From looking at rolling XWOBA values it appears as though Kirk has both a higher ceiling and a higher floor as he's provided peak output of over .500 xWOBA while also largely avoiding the dips below league average expected offense. Having said that it also appears as though Jansen has managed to hit peak output more overall times than Kirk has.

[jaysblue]

Kirk and Jansen pretty much represent the high floor and high ceiling. I don't think there's much to argue that Kirks floor is higher with his contact ability and average-ish power, whereas Jansen can go on a heater for a few weeks and (if healthy) would be a legit 30 HR threat at his peak, but is also prone to cratering for stretches. Small rolling hills Kirk vs high peaks and low valleys Jansen.

 

Kirk's floor is definitely higher given his high on-base skills and contact ability. If his bat ends up like a Gregg Zaun and if he could play around 100-120 games behind the plate, I'm happy with that. Kirk also still has a high ceiling if he can consistently be a 20-25 HR bat, providing some 4-5 WAR seasons along the way splitting time between C and DH.

[max silver]

I know the Jays don't want to do it, and it take away Varsho's OF defense which is a lot of value. However, Varsho was not a crappy catcher... That is not why he was in the OF. He was just so good in the OF and AZ had other catchers at the time... Varsho was a solid catcher if it ever comes to that...

 

Playing Varsho at catcher just opens up another hole in the outfield. The team can cover some outfield innings with Merrifield at present, however using Varsho at catcher would necessitate playing the ice cold bats of Biggio and/or Espinal at second base more frequently. Maybe you're still better off going this route vs using a AAA catcher on a regular basis though.

[Spanky99]

Hindsight is 20/20 and it's super early, but which trade scenario would you prefer? The Moreno/Gurriel for Varsho or if the Pirates would have traded for Kirk /Gurriel for Reynolds?

 

Pirates were never going to move Reynolds for a catcher, they're loaded at the position.

[Spanky99]

First game of 2nd Q of season today. 92 W pace for the first Q. Not too shabby.

 

Tough test vs Strider. Lets hope the Bassitt Hound can match up.

 

Thought we might see Calgary's own Soroka on Sunday but AA said he won't be available yet for it.

 

Will catch 3 NYY games next week in person - first ones of the season. Looking forward to it.

 

Soroka pitched last night. Jays Got Dis'