General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2023)

[Terminator]

https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/87585/transaction-analysis-plesac-sign-better-players-kiner-falefa-martin-perez-kiermaier/

 

Spanky can you paste the relevant Jays stuff from that? Thanks

[BTS]

https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/87585/transaction-analysis-plesac-sign-better-players-kiner-falefa-martin-perez-kiermaier/

 

Spanky can you paste the relevant Jays stuff from that? Thanks

 

The Toronto Blue Jays sign CF Kevin Kiermaier to a one-year, $10.5 million contract.

The Toronto Blue Jays sign UTIL Isiah Kiner-Falefa to a two-year, $15 million contract.

Times really were simpler back in the day. That isn’t to say they were bettert—they were absolutely not better, except maybe in terms of carcinogens inhaled per minute—but it’s undeniable that everything existed on fewer axes.

 

If one were to analyze this transaction 20 years ago, it’d be simple. You’d hardly even need the words: an embedded minor-key MIDI file, maybe a tinny minor-key square-wave rendition of “Everybody Hurts” would accompany the blinking HTML text. “SUBOPTIMAL USE OF RESOURCES,” the page would read, and that’d be that, you’d be free to log off (people still logged off at that point) and go to work to pay for your $700 rent.

 

Pity that poor made-up version of you. Instead we live in an enlightened age, with so many new ideas and perspectives to consider, so many metrics that provide us new insights to better understand the wisdom of baseball teams staffed with all those guys who got into baseball when the blink tag was still around, so many… $15 million? In American dollars, you say. For… wait. Don’t the Blue Jays already have that guy? No, not that one. I’m talking about the other other guy.

 

The Kiermaier thing, fine. The Blue Jays need a center fielder, and there’s two of them on the market—I don’t know what you’re talking about, there’s only two, Bellinger’s a first baseman and wants a lot of money and that’s the end of the conversation—and they’re basically exactly the same guy, except one of them you’ve met and you know you can stand to be in the same room with him for six months. You don’t know if Harrison Bader chews really loud, or can’t shut up about his grind mindset. He’ll start in center about 100 times, which is better than watching Daulton Varsho start in center 130 times, or worse yet watching Daulton Varsho hit while starting in center 130 times. He’ll hit fastballs and whiff on everything else, but it’s okay because he’s hitting ninth and he’s fine for a guy hitting ninth.

 

But you can only have one guy hitting ninth.

 

Look, I don’t want to be this guy. In doing the TA94 series this offseason, I’ve read a lot of articles by This Guy: beat writers, forged and honed on the toxic masculinity of sports radio and alcoholism, who get paid to be angry about the idiocy of the baseball team whose blood feeds them. But this transaction is their origin story. This transaction is the mirror in which madness lies. The Blue Jays have Santiago Espinal. They have Davis Schneider. They have Cavan Biggio. They have Ernie Clement and Orelvis Martinez and Addison Barger and Leo Jimenez.

 

So let’s travel back in time again, and do this differently. Because there’s another phenomenon that used to be a ubiquitous concept in our lives, before they were invaded by smartphones: not knowing things. You’d be sitting in line and suddenly wonder: “Who was Shoeless Joe Jackson in Eight Men Out” and your line of inquiry would just die there, instantly. You couldn’t look up the fact that it was D.B. Sweeney, a tidbit that enriches your life in no way whatsoever except to suffocate your sense of humility and curiosity.

 

I don’t know what the Blue Jays were thinking here. We waited weeks, working on this book, waiting for the truth to reveal itself, and it just didn’t. We have nothing to go on except that it’s a SUBOPTIMAL USE OF RESOURCES. Consider all the ways that it makes sense, on some invisible axis just beyond the periphery of your imagination. There isn’t really an alternative. —Patrick Dubuque

[Spanky99]

https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/87585/transaction-analysis-plesac-sign-better-players-kiner-falefa-martin-perez-kiermaier/

 

Spanky can you paste the relevant Jays stuff from that? Thanks

 

Don't have access, just BA as BP suxxxxxx

[Eat My Shatkins]

Holy f*** what a pile of horse s*** that article is.

 

Do they not realize that one of the negatives of signing KK was NOT being able to start Varsho fulltime in CF now? Guy is talking like it saved us from Varsho who was as valuable as KK was last season and projects to be better this season, especially if he was in CF full time.

[Laika]

The Toronto Blue Jays sign CF Kevin Kiermaier to a one-year, $10.5 million contract.

The Toronto Blue Jays sign UTIL Isiah Kiner-Falefa to a two-year, $15 million contract.

Times really were simpler back in the day. That isn’t to say they were bettert—they were absolutely not better, except maybe in terms of carcinogens inhaled per minute—but it’s undeniable that everything existed on fewer axes.

 

If one were to analyze this transaction 20 years ago, it’d be simple. You’d hardly even need the words: an embedded minor-key MIDI file, maybe a tinny minor-key square-wave rendition of “Everybody Hurts” would accompany the blinking HTML text. “SUBOPTIMAL USE OF RESOURCES,” the page would read, and that’d be that, you’d be free to log off (people still logged off at that point) and go to work to pay for your $700 rent.

 

Pity that poor made-up version of you. Instead we live in an enlightened age, with so many new ideas and perspectives to consider, so many metrics that provide us new insights to better understand the wisdom of baseball teams staffed with all those guys who got into baseball when the blink tag was still around, so many… $15 million? In American dollars, you say. For… wait. Don’t the Blue Jays already have that guy? No, not that one. I’m talking about the other other guy.

 

The Kiermaier thing, fine. The Blue Jays need a center fielder, and there’s two of them on the market—I don’t know what you’re talking about, there’s only two, Bellinger’s a first baseman and wants a lot of money and that’s the end of the conversation—and they’re basically exactly the same guy, except one of them you’ve met and you know you can stand to be in the same room with him for six months. You don’t know if Harrison Bader chews really loud, or can’t shut up about his grind mindset. He’ll start in center about 100 times, which is better than watching Daulton Varsho start in center 130 times, or worse yet watching Daulton Varsho hit while starting in center 130 times. He’ll hit fastballs and whiff on everything else, but it’s okay because he’s hitting ninth and he’s fine for a guy hitting ninth.

 

But you can only have one guy hitting ninth.

 

Look, I don’t want to be this guy. In doing the TA94 series this offseason, I’ve read a lot of articles by This Guy: beat writers, forged and honed on the toxic masculinity of sports radio and alcoholism, who get paid to be angry about the idiocy of the baseball team whose blood feeds them. But this transaction is their origin story. This transaction is the mirror in which madness lies. The Blue Jays have Santiago Espinal. They have Davis Schneider. They have Cavan Biggio. They have Ernie Clement and Orelvis Martinez and Addison Barger and Leo Jimenez.

 

So let’s travel back in time again, and do this differently. Because there’s another phenomenon that used to be a ubiquitous concept in our lives, before they were invaded by smartphones: not knowing things. You’d be sitting in line and suddenly wonder: “Who was Shoeless Joe Jackson in Eight Men Out” and your line of inquiry would just die there, instantly. You couldn’t look up the fact that it was D.B. Sweeney, a tidbit that enriches your life in no way whatsoever except to suffocate your sense of humility and curiosity.

 

I don’t know what the Blue Jays were thinking here. We waited weeks, working on this book, waiting for the truth to reveal itself, and it just didn’t. We have nothing to go on except that it’s a SUBOPTIMAL USE OF RESOURCES. Consider all the ways that it makes sense, on some invisible axis just beyond the periphery of your imagination. There isn’t really an alternative. —Patrick Dubuque

 

LOL I like this

 

pretty funny

[L54]

Pretty good recap tbh

[glory]

I'm not sure what half of that meant, but do agree that signing KK when you already have Varsho, and signing IKF period (presumably to start a large chunk of games at 3B) is not the best use of resources.

[Stangstag]

Holy f*** what a pile of horse s*** that article is.

 

Do they not realize that one of the negatives of signing KK was NOT being able to start Varsho fulltime in CF now? Guy is talking like it saved us from Varsho who was as valuable as KK was last season and projects to be better this season, especially if he was in CF full time.

 

Have you read some of the s*** around here? Numerous posters that would gladly DFA Varsho if they were in charge, or relegate him to a bench role.

[Terminator]

I'm not sure what half of that meant, but do agree that signing KK when you already have Varsho, and signing IKF period (presumably to start a large chunk of games at 3B) is not the best use of resources.

 

That's not what the article said. Kind of says the opposite tbh.

 

"The Kiermaier thing, fine. The Blue Jays need a center fielder....He’ll start in center about 100 times, which is better than watching Daulton Varsho start in center 130 times, or worse yet watching Daulton Varsho hit while starting in center 130 times."

[Jonn]

I'm not sure what half of that meant, but do agree that signing KK when you already have Varsho, and signing IKF period (presumably to start a large chunk of games at 3B) is not the best use of resources.

 

In retrospect both those moves made very little sense. Neither of them improved the roster in any kind of meaningful. I was hoping IKF would atleast mean Espinal is gone but apparently he’s very much still in the plans

[Stangstag]

That's not what the article said. Kind of says the opposite tbh.

 

"The Kiermaier thing, fine. The Blue Jays need a center fielder....He’ll start in center about 100 times, which is better than watching Daulton Varsho start in center 130 times, or worse yet watching Daulton Varsho hit while starting in center 130 times."

 

Right so now Daulton Varsho will be starting in LF 100 times and in CF the other 60 times... which is worse

[Laika]

The post is...

 

A post-modern commentary on front offices being "too clever by half" and the translation errors that causes between them and fans.

 

The post is not really about the moves. Don't read too much into the substantive commentary on the moves. Not the point of the screed.

[glory]

That's not what the article said. Kind of says the opposite tbh.

 

"The Kiermaier thing, fine. The Blue Jays need a center fielder....He’ll start in center about 100 times, which is better than watching Daulton Varsho start in center 130 times, or worse yet watching Daulton Varsho hit while starting in center 130 times."

 

Admittedly I skimmed it, but yeah I disagree with that part completely. Varsho in LF is not an optimal use of existing assets. Varsho had the worst offensive season of his pro career and was still a 2 WAR player playing mostly in LF. Put him in CF with anything close to a league average bat, and he's a significant asset. KK is too similar/redundant. They should have one or the other, not both. If they add a more offensive LF and KK is used as a 4th OF, then it becomes a much better move.

[Eat My Shatkins]

Have you read some of the s*** around here? Numerous posters that would gladly DFA Varsho if they were in charge, or relegate him to a bench role.

 

Oh yeah for sure, there's that one dude that keeps saying to fire Varsho into the sun. Yeah, fire a 2+ fWAR OF into the sun when he's making just a couple million and has upside to be a 3+ fWAR OF. Great f***ing idea buddy lol

[Frenchsoup]

Varsho could go 25/25 with elite d.

[Stangstag]

Oh yeah for sure, there's that one dude that keeps saying to fire Varsho into the sun. Yeah, fire a 2+ fWAR OF into the sun when he's making just a couple million and has upside to be a 3+ fWAR OF. Great f***ing idea buddy lol

 

He easily has 4+ WAR upside (he's already proven it in the past), and that's exactly why he was such a frustrating player last year. Really hope he turns it around next season.

[Brownie19]

He easily has 4+ WAR upside (he's already proven it in the past), and that's exactly why he was such a frustrating player last year. Really hope he turns it around next season.

 

Same. I really hope Varsho takes his meaty cock and shoves it right up that haters raw brown star, sans lube - on his way to another 4.5+ WAR season. That, combined with a WC birth that turns into winning multiple playoff rounds (maybe even the WS) would simply be sublime.

[Stangstag]

Same. I really hope Varsho takes his meaty cock and shoves it right up that haters raw brown star, sans lube - on his way to another 4.5+ WAR season. That, combined with a WC birth that turns into winning multiple playoff rounds (maybe even the WS) would simply be sublime.

 

"WAR is flawed, how can a guy hitting .220 be rated as a good player, blah blah blah"

[Frenchsoup]

Well Meatball aka Kyle Schwarber hits .220 with potential 60 bombs and is manageable in LF, who wouldn't want that. I think Larnach and Winker have similar profiles. I'd love love love Winky Dink on a 1 year 1 million dollar deal.

[TheHurl]

LOL I like this

 

pretty funny

 

Laika is Patrick DuBuque

[MikeM3]

He easily has 4+ WAR upside (he's already proven it in the past), and that's exactly why he was such a frustrating player last year. Really hope he turns it around next season.

 

Probably 6 war upside

[Marew]

If varsho can crack 700 ops for a couple years and hit 250, he might get a 100m payday. Maybe even 200 depending on if there is deferrals.

[Frenchsoup]

Rough draft of a Trade proposal with the Twinkies:

Bluejays get Carlos Correa Byron Buxton Jorge Polanco Trevor Larnach Alex Kiriloff Caleb Thielbar Willi Castro Christian Vasquez Kyle Farmer Chris Paddack for Jordan Romano Bo Bichette Vlad Espinal Kiermier Kirk Davis Schneider Orelvis Martinez Spencer Horowitz Alek Manoah Ricky Tidemann Brandon Barria and a couple other guys with Money working for both clubs.

[Spanky99]

Rough draft of a Trade proposal with the Twinkies:

Bluejays get Carlos Correa Byron Buxton Jorge Polanco Trevor Larnach Alex Kiriloff Caleb Thielbar Willi Castro Christian Vasquez Kyle Farmer Chris Paddack for Jordan Romano Bo Bichette Vlad Espinal Kiermier Kirk Davis Schneider Orelvis Martinez Spencer Horowitz Alek Manoah Ricky Tidemann Brandon Barria and a couple other guys with Money working for both clubs.

 

lol... alright dude, see you on the flipside.

[Frenchsoup]

Lol Spanks it's just a rough draft, there's a trade there lol

[Jays24]

If varsho can crack 700 ops for a couple years and hit 250, he might get a 100m payday. Maybe even 200 depending on if there is deferrals.

 

So if Varsho becomes good at everything he sucks at, he'll be good eh... who knew

 

But yes, he has the potential to become a power hitting version of a prime KK, which could be amazing. Now whether he can do it, we'll see.

[jaysblue]

If Varsho can turn into Kyle Schwarber or Max Muncy with his bat, I think we all would take that along with his superior D.

 

He still has a lot to prove before we consider him a consistent 4-5 WAR player. Even after an awful season in 2023, he still posted a 2.3 WAR. He's entering his age 27 season, so he either stays as a 2 WAR type of guy or he fulfills his potential of being a 4-5 WAR player like he was in 2022. Let's hope he improves his offensive numbers and that his 2022 season wasn't a fluke. Not writing off Varsho just yet, but if he doesn't turn things around in 2024, I'll start to be worried.

[Laika]

At worst he's Kole Calhoun plus 2 extra WAR every year for superior D and baserunning.

 

But, I think there is more potential. Could figure some s*** out and pull off a Curtis Granderson career or something like it. A random 40 hr season and then gets some old man hitting skills as he ages.

[Marew]

So if Varsho becomes good at everything he sucks at, he'll be good eh... who knew

 

But yes, he has the potential to become a power hitting version of a prime KK, which could be amazing. Now whether he can do it, we'll see.

 

It would be ideal, destroy his confidence then get that extension, then build him back up again.

[BCZ]

It would be ideal, destroy his confidence then get that extension, then build him back up again.

 

rofl