General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2023)

[Eat My Shatkins]

I think the Jays want Vladdy to recover his value, trading him now would be selling very low.

 

If Bo is not interested in extending and wants to get to FA, then he makes the most sense for franchise altering trade bait.

 

Padres/Jays making a huge swap makes sense to me. Both teams are good but struggling to get over the hump, and now the Padres trying to cut payroll.

[glory]

Gausman would have a lot of trade value as well but it's hard to imagine the team improving as a whole if he were moved in trade.

 

Yeah I don't think Gausman is even a candidate to be moved at this point. He's on a well below market value deal and is locked up for three more years. Plus the Jays aren't exactly a pitching factory when it comes to development so replacing him would be next to impossible. Vlad and Bo are a lot easier to replace, though Bo would be tough to replace short term depending on what they got back for him. I see those two as more "franchise altering" because they are the faces of the franchise at this point and this run was predicated on them leading the way. Moving on from one of them now would be pretty significant in that sense.

 

I'm not sure what a 2024 version of Alomar-Carter/McGriff-Fernandez would even look like at this point. The only name that jumps out to me is Tatis, but I don't think there's a fit there as they have Xander locked up for 100 years and Vlad makes more than Tatis in 2024-25 so it doesn't help the Padres shed salary.

[jaysblue]

I'm cool with trading Bo if the rumors are true and he isn't amenable to signing an extension before he reaches free agency. I'm incredibly hesitant to ship Vlad at this point given how young he is and the tremendous upside he still offers. I have serious doubts the eventual return would be close to the value Vlad will offer the team if he finally reaches his ceiling year in and year out. Everything he's said publicly makes it appear as though he wants to be a career Blue Jay but it's up to him to prove he's worth an extension in the next few seasons if this is to occur.

 

Yeah I think the most likely player they trade would be Bo if they are leaning towards making a big franchise altering move. Bo still has the most value, whereas Vladdy's value has taken a hit over the past two seasons. Maybe that's why they signed IKF as insurance in case they can't acquire a better shortstop offensively if they trade Bo. If they do move Bo, they could target Adames via trade or free agency next season.

 

From the sounds of it, the Jays want to work with Vlad and help him make those adjustments, so probably they're not looking to trade him at this exact moment.

[max silver]

Yeah I think the most likely player they trade would be Bo if they are leaning towards making a big franchise altering move. Bo still has the most value, whereas Vladdy's value has taken a hit over the past two seasons. Maybe that's why they signed IKF as insurance in case they can't acquire a better shortstop offensively if they trade Bo. If they do move Bo, they could target Adames via trade or free agency next season.

 

From the sounds of it, the Jays want to work with Vlad and help him make those adjustments, so probably they're not looking to trade him at this exact moment.

 

Despite how lost at the plate Vlad appeared to be for a good chunk of the season he still hit the s*** out of the baseball and his expected stats support something in the 130-140 wRC+ range. I don't think he's that far away from producing a monster season at the plate but that's certainly far from a certainty given his career trajectory. I thought that his 2022 season likely represented a "down" season for Vlad after the 2021 offensive explosion but unfortunately his floor was much worse.

[Carlos Danger]

I'm cool with trading Bo if the rumors are true and he isn't amenable to signing an extension before he reaches free agency. I'm incredibly hesitant to ship Vlad at this point given how young he is and the tremendous upside he still offers. I have serious doubts the eventual return would be close to the value Vlad will offer the team if he finally reaches his ceiling year in and year out. Everything he's said publicly makes it appear as though he wants to be a career Blue Jay but it's up to him to prove he's worth an extension in the next few seasons if this is to occur.

 

This is like selling a stock. You think there is upside and you want to hold it and make more. However, you might keep holding and find out it is what is is, or worse and now you have lost value because the quarterly report is out and things are still not looking great.

 

Or in this case, another year of control lost and more metrics to show the “upside” is a fallacy.

 

Point being, Vlad’s value may never be higher. Sell while there is upside potential and control.

[Cbert]

I'm not sure what a 2024 version of Alomar-Carter/McGriff-Fernandez would even look like at this point. The only name that jumps out to me is Tatis, but I don't think there's a fit there as they have Xander locked up for 100 years and Vlad makes more than Tatis in 2024-25 so it doesn't help the Padres shed salary.

 

The pads have been a team I’ve wondered about all off-season as a good partner for a big ML level trade. I know they’ve got Bogaerts, but Bo could slide over to 2nd if Kim were in the deal. Some framework of Bo and Tiedemann + for Tatis and Kim? Would kill our pitching depth but maybe a guy like Kikuchi would be willing to tack a couple more years onto his deal.

[max silver]

This is like selling a stock. You think there is upside and you want to hold it and make more. However, you might keep holding and find out it is what is is, or worse and now you have lost value because the quarterly report is out and things are still not looking great.

 

Or in this case, another year of control lost and more metrics to show the “upside” is a fallacy.

 

Point being, Vlad’s value may never be higher. Sell while there is upside potential and control.

 

This outlines exactly why I would never trade in the stock market as I would be exactly the type to get attached to certain stocks. I let my financial adviser steer me in the proper direction in terms of investment opportunities.

 

At any rate Vlad is still projected for a 144 wRC+ and his quality of contact supported much better results than he obtained in 2023. I simply think it's a bad time to cut bait as the team would stand to gain far more value if he's kept and breaks out vs the value they would lose if he's traded and breaks out for a different team.

[max silver]

The pads have been a team I’ve wondered about all off-season as a good partner for a big ML level trade. I know they’ve got Bogaerts, but Bo could slide over to 2nd if Kim were in the deal. Some framework of Bo and Tiedemann + for Tatis and Kim? Would kill our pitching depth but maybe a guy like Kikuchi would be willing to tack a couple more years onto his deal.

 

Tatis and Kim are the two targets I like from the Padres, but Kim is a massive bargain and they are trying to win so it's hard to see them being particularly interested in trading him. Tatis has legitimate potential to be MLB's best player but he's signed basically forever and his deal is actually reasonable for a young superstar so the cost to attain him would be prohibitive.

[Eat My Shatkins]

The Jays can probably get a couple very good players from the Padres, but only because those players have terrible contracts, and also only because the Padres are trying to cut payroll.

 

Guys like Boegarts and Machado

 

Not a bad proposition if the Padres pay a portion of the deals

[Tmlrapsjays10]

I know ok Vlad there were articles by Davidi insinuating the coaching stuff with Vladdy.

 

I think it’s going to be interesting to see what happens with the balance of the offseason.

 

I know the KK stuff happened really fast, Atkins called his agent as KK let the team know he was open to coming back at the end of the season and an hour later a verbal agreement was in place. KK and his wife love the city.

 

I know the team has been looking for OF help and I think they still want one more whether it’s someone like Bellinger who can play all 3 OF and 1B which lets everyone get load management. I think it means if Belli does happen we would need a DH that can play a position.

 

Ben Nicholson-Smith made it sound last night like the Jays were close on a Joc Pederson signing, so that could be the OF platoon bat there, if they get a Turner type to go with him

[Cbert]

Tatis and Kim are the two targets I like from the Padres, but Kim is a massive bargain and they are trying to win so it's hard to see them being particularly interested in trading him. Tatis has legitimate potential to be MLB's best player but he's signed basically forever and his deal is actually reasonable for a young superstar so the cost to attain him would be prohibitive.

 

Oh yea was definitely my pie in the sky trade dream. I’d also consider Tatis and taking on like 250 of Machado’s contract but doubt the Pads would do that while still trying to compete, nor lessen Tatis’ value by pairing him with Machado.

[Spanky99]

Well here goes attempt two after I accidentally deleted the post.

 

Happy new years everyone. I spent this afternoon hanging out with my pal and the actual source of all information.

 

The biggest takeaway I had is the team is trying to work on a massive franchise altering trade, think something like 92 where you take from the MLB roster to add to the MLB roster.

 

The teams preference is not avoid doing so but they're balking at the asking price on prospects, the TV deal fiasco is causing a lot of issues with trades and is slowing down free agency.

 

Tiedeman is available if the team can get in his words "a 4-5 win player with 3-4 years of control if you were looking at FanGraphs".

 

Interest in the Cuban starter is real, thinks the team has approached him about more of a bulk reliever or swing man role.

 

Manoah and Espinal are both getting a lot of trade interest from teams. Teams like that they're under control and affordable. Teams view Espinal as an everyday SS for basically nothing if it allows them to drop salary based on their new economic outlook. Thinks Espinal is just a matter of time but expects the off season to stay as slow as it is. Manoah they're not getting fair value back so its looking less likely he'll be moved unless it's in a package.

 

Team has ownerships go ahead to eat a few bad contracts if it makes the team a lot better and doesn't add to the payroll dramatically for 4+ years.

 

No formal offer in on Bellinger but one was made on Chapman in November, not sure if it's still out there. They've asked Boras to circle back on Bellinger when the term, not dollar value comes down.

 

Vladdy is working with Jays staff in Florida to correct a mechanical issue they identified in May that he refused to work with their staff during the season. Team has a lot of belief he'll rebound from 2023 but they were done with his stubbornness. They are hoping that now that hes a bit older he'll have fewer brainfarts on the basses and on D. Mattingly and Vlad have a good relationship and Mattingly was the one who identified the issue with Guerrero's swing in May.

 

I inquired about a Guerrero extension and he can state the conversation has never even happened. I asked why and he says the team saw what happened once the team left MiLB parks in 2021, it was basically identical output to what he did in 2022, within something like 5%, which is a slightly above league average player. Team knows he is young, IIRC he's the youngest player on the team, so they're fine with seeing him put up some consistency.

 

I did ask about prospects the team is high on and he said obviously Horowitz, if he could hit left handed pitching he would have been up earlier in the season. Alan Roden is the teams internal number one position player prospect - 20/20 potential, well above average D in a corner (likely LF), likely to hit for a higher average with a high OBP and run into a lot of doubles. I was a bit surprised and asked about Martinez and the team loves the bat but doesn't think he has a position, they're hoping he could do something like Dan Uggla and be an ugly defensive 2B with enough of a bat to still be a good (he later defined this a 3 win player using fWAR for public information). His defensive issues are throwing, he has a weird sidearm motion and horrendous footwork on the left side of the infield. I did ask about Barger and he is a RF, may still get reps at 2B/3B but but view him as a RF. Similar issues with footwork to Martinez but the arm is elite and plays in RF. Need to see what the bat does in 2024.

 

Damn, juicy. Me likey, thanks for sharing.

[Stangstag]

This is like selling a stock. You think there is upside and you want to hold it and make more. However, you might keep holding and find out it is what is is, or worse and now you have lost value because the quarterly report is out and things are still not looking great.

 

Or in this case, another year of control lost and more metrics to show the “upside” is a fallacy.

 

Point being, Vlad’s value may never be higher. Sell while there is upside potential and control.

 

Lettheballfly would absolutely lose his house, family, and everything on Vladdy stock.

[Laika]

2. Blue Jays presser:

 

As noted by Keegan Matheson of MLB.com, Blue Jays GM Ross Atkins is expected to address the media at 9am CT this morning followed by recent signings Kevin Kiermaier and Isiah Kiner-Falefa later in the day. The press conference comes on the heels of a December that saw the Blue Jays connected to many of the league’s top free agents including Shohei Ohtani, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Cody Bellinger, and Matt Chapman. Since then, however, Toronto has come up short in their bids for both Ohtani and Yamamoto while the signings of Kiermaier and Kiner-Falefa seemingly cast doubt on the club’s odds of landing Bellinger to play center field or reuniting with Chapman at third base. Will today’s presser provide additional clarity regarding Toronto’s pursuits of a the two biggest bats left on the market?

[RobinThicc]

 

If theres going to be a big addition, seems more likely it will be at the trade deadline

[Laika]

Oh boy, people are going to hate this press call.

 

Asked Ross Atkins if the #BlueJays have their third-baseman on the roster:

 

“We feel really good about the team that we have. Between Espinal, Biggio and Kiner-Falefa, we have opportunities to deploy different lineups and different players playing third base potentially.”

 

Ross Atkins repeated several times that he likes the team the #BlueJays have.

 

How many moves are left? "I don't think we'll add three players. I think, most likely, that it's closer to one."

 

Atkins said that “would most likely be in the outfield or DH category”...

 

#BlueJays GM Ross Atkins on what's missing from this team:

 

“The things I think we’re missing aren’t people. The things that we’re missing were our ability to support and help the players. We feel like we’ve worked to offset that and put ourselves in a much better position.”

 

This is either just positioning to lowball players, or they will really just add an old DH and call it an offseason.

 

KK the fulltime CF. IKF to get 650 PA.

[max silver]

Oh boy, people are going to hate this press call.

 

 

 

This is either just positioning to lowball players, or they will really just add an old DH and call it an offseason.

 

KK the fulltime CF. IKF to get 650 PA.

 

Sheeeeit this team could have a really hard time scoring without significant bounceback seasons from most of the roster if Atkins isn't merely posturing in this presser.

[leaffie]

Someone should tell Atkins what is missing is OFFENSE

[RobinThicc]

Varsho bounce back, Kirk adds some pop, Vlad returns to 2022 form, make a deadline addition and the offense will be fine

[Laika]

Varsho bounce back, Kirk adds some pop, Vlad returns to 2022 form, make a deadline addition and the offense will be fine

 

It's possible. Patently obvious that multiple incumbent players need to just do better. And most of them are capable of it.

 

I would EXPECT more from Vlad, Kirk, and Varsho.

 

I would not expect much from Springer anymore, unfortunately.

 

KK will probably be worse with the bat.

 

 

The Jays need f***ing Danny Jansen (Mr. Glass) to stay healthy for 500 PA.

[L54]

Lmao

 

Gonna be streaming against the Jays all fantasy season long

[glory]

Vlad, Kirk, and Varsho being better is a reasonable expectation. Springer is old now so I don’t think a bounce back, while possible, is something that I’d feel comfortable counting on. Kiermaier is also likely to be closer to the 90 wRC+ player he normally is next season. Schneider is a bit of a wild card. IKF likely is what he is and it’s not good (offensively). Maybe they think they can turn some of that added exit velo into something closer to a league average bat but I’m not expecting that to happen.

 

Yeah the existing roster plus someone like Joc has potential to be a good offense but equal potential to be average/below average. They really should have picked one of IKF/KK instead of both (if both end up starting). With that said, nothing Atkins says at these things mean anything, as even if he’s not happy with the current roster, there is no upside to say that publicly, so we’re just going to have to wait to see what he does. This has been a long off season.

[Stangstag]

 

If theres going to be a big addition, seems more likely it will be at the trade deadline

 

Ugh. What a terrible offseason if true. From almost getting Ohtani to this lol.

[Stangstag]

Varsho bounce back, Kirk adds some pop, Vlad returns to 2022 form, make a deadline addition and the offense will be fine

 

All offset by Belt and Chapman leaving and KK likely regressing

[Brownie19]

Someone should tell Atkins what is missing is OFFENSE

 

I have to think they feel comfortable that Vlad, Kirk, Varsho and Springer will all be significantly better - then they'll add a Joc Pederson to the mix and call it a day. It's not a very inspiring offseason, but our offense was 7th in MLB last year in wRC+. I suspect all the models they have suggest the RISP issues they had last year was a lot of bad luck and are very unlikely to occur again (perhaps the talk of additional support to players will help in this regard?). Fans won't like it - but there's probably a lot of truth to this. A breakout season by someone like Davis Schneider, or a healthy season by Jansen may be needed to really provide that extra umph in the lineup.

[BatFlip]

All offset by Belt and Chapman leaving and KK likely regressing

 

Really not sure about management's dollar allocation this off-season on the fringes of the roster. The roster wasn't strong enough for just minor tinkering and if you're betting on Vlad bouncing back, now's the time to get ballsy.

 

The ~$19M spent on KK and Chad Green are finishing moves on a largely completed roster - that would have been way better spent bringing in two big bats, like a Teo and a JD, or a Joc and JD. Let's hope Atkins is being cagey and has something up his sleeve.

[Brownie19]

All offset by Belt and Chapman leaving and KK likely regressing

 

I think the DH/OFer signing will have a decent shot of replicating what Belt provided last year and the bounce back seasons from various players should balance the drop from Chapman to IKF. The offense wasn't as brutal as most claim it was last year. The actual runs scored had to be one of the worst possible outcomes that anyone could have reasonably expected. 107 wRC+ as a team, but only 746 runs score. Cincy had a 98 wRC+ and scored 783 runs. Cubs were 6th in MLB with 819 runs scored, with only a 104 wRC+

[Eat My Shatkins]

Yeah I wouldn't expect a 140-150 wRC+ from Springer anymore but hopefully he can get it back up to 115-125 wRC+

[Spanky99]

Lmao

 

Gonna be streaming against the Jays all fantasy season long

 

You mean betting the under or something, why stream against good pitching and D?

[MikeM3]

I can see bounce backs for the position players.

 

But Atkins is on crack if he's comfortable with our pitching depth.