Blue Jays acquire Daulton Varsho for Moreno and Gurriel

[bluejaysinternNo5]

Simmons was also a good example of a defense first player who actually got better with age and improved his hitting in his peak years (27 and 28). That's a good example of the upside that Varsho has.

 

There's always a possibility that a player falls off the cliff, no matter what their skill set is. I can provide example of good hitters who completely died at age 29 also. I think there's a very high probability that Varsho's floor is a 2 WAR player. Obviously nobody wants to see that - and if he's hitting the floor for the next 3 years, we'll probably all agree that trade was a flop. But most players have a much lower floor than that. Defense and speed rarely take days off - especially when you're under 30 years old.

 

You make some good points as well! True it will be nice to have possibly the best center fielder in baseball to watch next season. I am excited for that. Here's hoping we see 4 WAR Varsho in 2024.

[bluejaysinternNo5]

I think the two of us also see the the acquisition cost differently. I don't think Gurriel carried any meaningful value. So I see the trade as being Moreno for Varsho. And I think that cost reflects the warts you've correctly pointed out in Varsho's profile: he gets a lot of his value from defense, and doesn't hit the ball hard often enough. A 26-year old old with 4 years of control who had put of 7 war over 900 PA the previous two years and who had arrived there with less defense and more bat probably doesn't get traded for Moreno and whatever marginal value you want to attribute to Gurriel. All that to say: I don't think the Jays paid sticker price for a guy you'd expect to continue putting up 4-5 win seasons for the remaining 4 years of team control. Bichette is a 4-5 win player who gets there with his bat, and the forum would have had an aneurism if he were traded last offseason for the same value Varsho returned.

 

This is also another good point - although I would say Bichette had a bit more of a track record but I do see what you mean.

[Marew]

Gotta feel bad for varsho. He’s a nice kid and mean people are making mean articles about him. Hopefully he can still sleep well on his pile of cash and bikini adorned women.

[The Cats Ass]

Simmons was also a good example of a defense first player who actually got better with age and improved his hitting in his peak years (27 and 28). That's a good example of the upside that Varsho has.

 

There's always a possibility that a player falls off the cliff, no matter what their skill set is. I can provide example of good hitters who completely died at age 29 also. I think there's a very high probability that Varsho's floor is a 2 WAR player. Obviously nobody wants to see that - and if he's hitting the floor for the next 3 years, we'll probably all agree that trade was a flop. But most players have a much lower floor than that. Defense and speed rarely take days off - especially when you're under 30 years old.

 

I think 2 WAR is a fair floor for him. Ceiling is what, 6 WAR?

[Krylian]

They'd never say that, but why would they say it now? Gurriel had almost no value - he was a 2-win corner OF who's a free agent this offseason and won't get a QO. He would have been almost free if Arizona had sold at the deadline. The meat of the trade was 6 years of Moreno vs. 4 years of Varsho. They were about a wash in 2023. Moreno has to be a perennial all-star for this to actually register as a significant long-term mistake. And maybe he will be that, but it remains to be seen. Most likely outcome is probably that Moreno puts up like 10-12 WAR over the next 5 years year and Varsho puts up like 6-8 over the next 3.

 

I can't believe the hysterics over this, and I would have fired Atkins like two weeks ago

 

I know they'd never say it. Doesn't mean that isn't what I want to hear. I wish they were more relatable and transparent and would say 'Yup. That didn't work out. We'll do better next time.'. Would make me feel like they weren't full of s***.

 

I understand how the business works... Just saying I wish they could be completely honest about their mistakes.

[John_Havok]

I know they'd never say it. Doesn't mean that isn't what I want to hear. I wish they were more relatable and transparent and would say 'Yup. That didn't work out. We'll do better next time.'. Would make me feel like they weren't full of s***.

 

I understand how the business works... Just saying I wish they could be completely honest about their mistakes.

 

What difference would that even make? The process behind the trade would still happen if they had to do it over again, and it can't be walked back.

 

Publicly stating the trade was a mistake makes no sense. Using the Dbacks current post season success as a measuring stick of the travel makes even less sense.

 

Just because the Jays got something like a 20th percentile outcome this season doesn't mean the trade was a mistake. Had Varsho been injured by in spring training and missed half the season or more...would the trade still have been a mistake?

[connorp]

I know they'd never say it. Doesn't mean that isn't what I want to hear. I wish they were more relatable and transparent and would say 'Yup. That didn't work out. We'll do better next time.'. Would make me feel like they weren't full of s***.

 

I understand how the business works... Just saying I wish they could be completely honest about their mistakes.

 

Imagine being Bud Light.

[bluejaysinternNo5]

What difference would that even make? The process behind the trade would still happen if they had to do it over again, and it can't be walked back.

 

Publicly stating the trade was a mistake makes no sense. Using the Dbacks current post season success as a measuring stick of the travel makes even less sense.

 

Just because the Jays got something like a 20th percentile outcome this season doesn't mean the trade was a mistake. Had Varsho been injured by in spring training and missed half the season or more...would the trade still have been a mistake?

 

It's not fair to consider Varsho getting injured and missing the whole season to be the equivalent of Varsho failing at the plate, when Varsho has an xwOBA of .298 in 2022 and an actual wOBA of .293 in 2023. There was a very real chance that he hit like he did in 2023.

[Laika]

I find it incredible difficult to understand how fans see it any other way. I understand fans are irrational at times, but the success of the Diamondbacks in the playoffs shouldn't really be changing your view of this trade.

 

Is anyone who feels this might be one of the worst trades in history actually able to articulate why they feel that way? What do you think the probability of Moreno becoming a 5+ WAR superstar are? Do you just struggle to understand how someone with a low average can still be valuable?

 

Obviously there's a lot of people who fall into this category - because the Toronto Star is writing and article as click bait. Help us understand your side better.

 

The somewhat knowledgeable fan would just be an fWAR skeptic, basically. They think Varsho doesn't have the potential that fWAR illustrates and Moreno is better than the green website gives him credit for.

 

The more casual fans are just reacting to the obvious optics. Moreno is hitting 3rd on a team going to the World Series. Varsho was hitting 7-9th and getting pinch hit for on one of the most depressing Jays teams ever.

[Brownie19]

I know they'd never say it. Doesn't mean that isn't what I want to hear. I wish they were more relatable and transparent and would say 'Yup. That didn't work out. We'll do better next time.'. Would make me feel like they weren't full of s***.

 

I understand how the business works... Just saying I wish they could be completely honest about their mistakes.

 

I mean - they told us at the press conference that it's short sighted to judge a trade like this after 1 year. That's 100% correct, so not sure why you'd expect anything different. Do you want them to say "well that didn't work out great in Year 1?" I mean they could probably say that, but it's 100% going to be followed by "however, we have confidence in Varsho and believe he'll be a key/core part of our outfield for the foreseeable future".

 

Would that make you happy?

 

re: bolded portion - they basically said that. Shapiro said they need to improve and get better. What more do you want?

 

 

At the end of the day, I think you'd be better off not listening to press conferences or interviews. Nobody is going to say much of use for obvious reasons. Stop expecting them to tell you exactly how they are feeling. It's a waste of time.

[deanmike]

The somewhat knowledgeable fan would just be an fWAR skeptic, basically. They think Varsho doesn't have the potential that fWAR illustrates and Moreno is better than the green website gives him credit for.

 

The more casual fans are just reacting to the obvious optics. Moreno is hitting 3rd on a team going to the World Series. Varsho was hitting 7-9th and getting pinch hit for on one of the most depressing Jays teams ever.

 

Not sure why any Jays fan would doubt the potential that fWAR illustrates Varsho clearly has. You can wish the Jays traded any of the other 2 catchers besides Moreno, and also be a big fan of Varsho moving forward.

 

On a semi-related note, would you consider a 1B/DH who put up only 0.4 fWAR in 525 PA at 1B this season, but is projected to make 20M+ in arbitration, a trade/non-tender candidate?

[max silver]

Not sure why any Jays fan would doubt the potential that fWAR illustrates Varsho clearly has. You can wish the Jays traded any of the other 2 catchers besides Moreno, and also be a big fan of Varsho moving forward.

 

On a semi-related note, would you consider a 1B/DH who put up only 0.4 fWAR in 525 PA at 1B this season, but is projected to make 20M+ in arbitration, a trade/non-tender candidate?

 

This is a bit of an unfair way to frame this as this particular player also served time as a DH this season and the 0.4 doesn't measure his entire contribution. It's not like his actual season WAR total of 1.0 is anything to get excited about either but it's not like he only received plate appearances while playing first base.

 

This same player is two seasons removed from an MVP caliber 6.3 FWAR season and a single season removed from a 2.9 FWAR season. His underlying metrics for the 2023 season much more closely resemble the MVP type season vs the 2022 season as well. Imagine if he were DFA'd/traded for pennies on the dollar and made a few minor swing tweaks (this is likely all he needs to do to return to being a monster at the plate) and then returned to producing 150 WRC+ seasons for a different team. How would you feel about that?

[Dick_Pole]

Are the people who constantly cry about this trade trolls and/or idiots? Yes

Do they have a point? Also, yes.

 

Debate all the boring stats until the thread gets called cancer. Fine. Moreno has had multiple positive plays in the playoffs and if Arizona wins and he continues to contribute to that, he will have his legacy that doesn't show up in trade value. You can't take that away from him, even if his career turns into a dud. There are guys in the HOF based on above average careers that were topped off with playoff heroics. Players like Joe Carter and Pat Borders would be seen as "just another average player on good teams" on this board, but to any casual or non-nerd who lived through 1992 and 1993, they are heroes.

[Dick_Pole]

There is a lot of (rightful) anger and frustration at this franchise and the front office that is laser focused on this trade at the moment because of the unique situation. The trade is merely symptom of a greater underlying cause. Ross Atkins is simply not very good at his job. Not the worst, but certainly not the best. Probably somewhere in the middle. Middling front office + high payroll = playoff team that doesn't get anywhere.

 

I see a lot of parallels between the Moreno and Stroman trades. Atkins is an awful poker player. He has a laser focus on something that needs to be done and other GMs smelled blood. Resulting in two trades that were overpays by the Jays. How do you take a strength (3 good catchers) that's generally an in demand position and someone else's weakness and turn it into a mediocre trade? Everyone could smell a mile away that the Jays weren't going into 2023 with three good catchers with a black hole in the OF and the Varsho trade was the best that came up. Why trade Hernandez a month before this one? So that everyone in the league sees your OF depth is on Little League level? A more adept FO would come into the spring with Hernandez, Kiermaier and the three catchers, have one or more of the three take reps elsewhere, and THEN make a move with a team desperate for a starting catcher. Then trade Hernandez if he's not part of the plan for 2023.

 

Ross Atkins is a beta male weenie. I said it before and circled right back to my initial opinion. He might be able to read fast, or land on Jeopardy or do math in his head, hire other beta male weenies who pulls the team's $100 million star pitcher in the 4th inning of a do-or-die game based on nerd stats out of a computer. But he lacks the skills of alpha males like winning at poker or building winning teams efficiently.

[L54]

Oofta well said

[Dick_Pole]

While the Varsho traders complainers are not on a very high level, the Varsho trade defenders are not that much better. Listen to yourselves, man. The range of scenarios for this trade is "maybe a slight win over the next few years" to "massive overpay and fail". That's not a very good range of outcomes for the Jays. Just go ahead, take the L, and leave the trolls to whine into this vacuous black hole of a thread until 2027.

[Brownie19]

There is a lot of (rightful) anger and frustration at this franchise and the front office that is laser focused on this trade at the moment because of the unique situation. The trade is merely symptom of a greater underlying cause. Ross Atkins is simply not very good at his job. Not the worst, but certainly not the best. Probably somewhere in the middle. Middling front office + high payroll = playoff team that doesn't get anywhere.

 

I see a lot of parallels between the Moreno and Stroman trades. Atkins is an awful poker player. He has a laser focus on something that needs to be done and other GMs smelled blood. Resulting in two trades that were overpays by the Jays. How do you take a strength (3 good catchers) that's generally an in demand position and someone else's weakness and turn it into a mediocre trade? Everyone could smell a mile away that the Jays weren't going into 2023 with three good catchers with a black hole in the OF and the Varsho trade was the best that came up. Why trade Hernandez a month before this one? So that everyone in the league sees your OF depth is on Little League level? A more adept FO would come into the spring with Hernandez, Kiermaier and the three catchers, have one or more of the three take reps elsewhere, and THEN make a move with a team desperate for a starting catcher. Then trade Hernandez if he's not part of the plan for 2023.

 

Ross Atkins is a beta male weenie. I said it before and circled right back to my initial opinion. He might be able to read fast, or land on Jeopardy or do math in his head, hire other beta male weenies who pulls the team's $100 million star pitcher in the 4th inning of a do-or-die game based on nerd stats out of a computer. But he lacks the skills of alpha males like winning at poker or building winning teams efficiently.

 

While I certainly agree with the premise that Atkins isn't a good GM, I think it's shorted to suggest he's some s***** poker player beta and suggest he should have done A, B & C instead. Moreno had a 78 wRC+ in the 1st half of this year. If he was doing that on the Jays, while playing out of position or some s***, his value likely would have dropped significantly.

 

You can rip Varsho all you want, but he was coming off 7.1 WAR over his past 900 PA's (which is about a 4.5 WAR pace over a full season). He was also coming off a 119 wRC+ second half in 2022. If he gets off to a hot start in 2023, there's a good chance he's simply not available anymore - especially for 1st half limp dick hitting version of Moreno. And the longer we held onto Teo, the more his value drops. He was awful in April and May this year. If we kept him, there's a chance we don't get someone as good as Swanson for him.

 

Then you have to factor in that the Jays were in a "win now" mode. Trying to play one of the catchers 'out of position' or proceeding with a suboptimal lineup may have cost them games in a season we couldn't afford to do that.

 

Now of course there's also a probability that following your formula would have given the Jays better results - but you shouldn't act like that was a given, or use that as your reasoning to rip the guy when you little to no idea if your approach would have worked or backfired.

[Laika]

The poker analogy is attractive but I dunno. I agree that there were some similarities between the Stroman and Moreno trades. It does seem like the league just saw his position from a mile away in both instances.

 

On the other hand, he shot from the hip with the Teoscar deal and that was good value in hindsight.

And in 2022 offseason everybody knew Toronto needed a 3B and they still ended up getting Matt Chapman for a song.

Dumped Panik and Groshans on Kim Ng in separate trades for useful relievers, when the whole league would have known Toronto was desperate for RP.

Stole Bowden Francis and Trevor Richards from Milwaukee in the same context.

Made good trades for Ray, Taijuan Walker, and Matz.

The Stripling trade worked out but Ryan Noda does seem like he was a piece worth keeping...

The White-Frasso trade doesn't look great.

 

I think on balance when you look at his complete trade record, there is much more good than bad. But a good chunk of the good trades are with bad orgs or GMs. Which I guess does support the characterization of him as a middle tier GM.

 

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/transactions/toronto-blue-jays/trade/

[MikeM3]

All Varsho has to do is hit some dead pull shots and he'll have a war over 5. Twitter nerds were all taking the under on his wrc+ projections bc his swing plane was s***. But he has pull power. It's an adjustment he can make to put it all together.

 

There's a decent chance he's better than Moreno next year. And I have no problem trading catchers bc they're unreliable. We should have got more than Varsho but it's not franchise crippling at all IMO.

 

Atkins should have dealt Kirk. That body type will not lend itself to long term success period. But maybe every other GM could see that.

[MikeM3]

The poker analogy is attractive but I dunno. I agree that there were some similarities between the Stroman and Moreno trades. It does seem like the league just saw his position from a mile away in both instances.

 

On the other hand, he shot from the hip with the Teoscar deal and that was good value in hindsight.

And in 2022 offseason everybody knew Toronto needed a 3B and they still ended up getting Matt Chapman for a song.

Dumped Panik and Groshans on Kim Ng in separate trades for useful relievers, when the whole league would have known Toronto was desperate for RP.

Stole Bowden Francis and Trevor Richards from Milwaukee in the same context.

Made good trades for Ray, Taijuan Walker, and Matz.

The Stripling trade worked out but Ryan Noda does seem like he was a piece worth keeping...

The White-Frasso trade doesn't look great.

 

I think on balance when you look at his complete trade record, there is much more good than bad. But a good chunk of the good trades are with bad orgs or GMs. Which I guess does support the characterization of him as a middle tier GM.

 

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/transactions/toronto-blue-jays/trade/

 

These are insignificant one way or the other. You're just moving value to different areas of the team, not creating any. Teo for Swanson is fine. Are you producing anything out of thin air like other organizations though? No you're not.

 

Atkins is good maybe even GREAT at using payroll for free agents and moving mlb assets with value for other mlb assets with value to plug holes.

 

But we have no ability to produce value out of nothing and that puts us below the upper echelon organizations.

 

Like I get legitimately worried when the Os claim Tucker Davidson from the Royals..

[Laika]

These are insignificant one way or the other. You're just moving value to different areas of the team, not creating any. Teo for Swanson is fine. Are you producing anything out of thin air like other organizations though? No you're not.

 

Atkins is good maybe even GREAT at using payroll for free agents and moving mlb assets with value for other mlb assets with value to plug holes.

 

But we have no ability to produce value out of nothing and that puts us below the upper echelon organizations.

 

Like I get legitimately worried when the Os claim Tucker Davidson from the Royals..

 

Yeah I agree. The professional development has been s***.

 

And the MLB scouting/analysis when it comes to acquisitions has also not been good. Hit or miss. They have a small track record of acquiring pitchers who can be immediately better (Matz, Francis, Ray, Cabrera) but that's kind of the only thing they have shown any strength at. Throw Kikuchi in there and you can say they are kind of good at finding pitchers who would be better by just aiming for the middle of the strike zone half the time, and telling them to do that.

 

But this is nothing at the level of the Orioles who just steal pitchers in various ways and then make them studs.

[Spanky99]

All Varsho has to do is hit some dead pull shots and he'll have a war over 5. Twitter nerds were all taking the under on his wrc+ projections bc his swing plane was s***. But he has pull power. It's an adjustment he can make to put it all together.

 

There's a decent chance he's better than Moreno next year. And I have no problem trading catchers bc they're unreliable. We should have got more than Varsho but it's not franchise crippling at all IMO.

 

Atkins should have dealt Kirk. That body type will not lend itself to long term success period. But maybe every other GM could see that.

 

The bolded is obvious, they shopped em' all and took best value in their projections.

[BTS]

Yeah I agree. The professional development has been s***.

 

And the MLB scouting/analysis when it comes to acquisitions has also not been good. Hit or miss. They have a small track record of acquiring pitchers who can be immediately better (Matz, Francis, Ray, Cabrera) but that's kind of the only thing they have shown any strength at. Throw Kikuchi in there and you can say they are kind of good at finding pitchers who would be better by just aiming for the middle of the strike zone half the time, and telling them to do that.

 

But this is nothing at the level of the Orioles who just steal pitchers in various ways and then make them studs.

 

I think Baltimore might be getting too much credit for being a pitching factory. In the last 4 years they've taken Bradish, Cano, and maybe Coulombe from outside the org and turned them into excellent arms. Maybe a few other relievers who had a good year then fell off the year following. They've thrown a ton of s*** against the wall to find those guys though. I don't know if their working finding pitching from nothing is more impressive than Toronto turning Ray from a mess into a CY winner, Stripling into a 3-win SP etc...

[MikeM3]

I think Baltimore might be getting too much credit for being a pitching factory. In the last 4 years they've taken Bradish, Cano, and maybe Coulombe from outside the org and turned them into excellent arms. Maybe a few other relievers who had a good year then fell off the year following. They've thrown a ton of s*** against the wall to find those guys though. I don't know if their working finding pitching from nothing is more impressive than Toronto turning Ray from a mess into a CY winner, Stripling into a 3-win SP etc...

 

Well their whole bullpen was acquired for I think literally nothing. They got Lopez turned him around then got Povich and Cano, then claimed Lopez back. Of course they got Bautista for nothing and also Coloumbe. And Bryan Baker and Cionel Perez also.

 

I think ya basically every good RP they have was created from thin air

[BTS]

Well their whole bullpen was acquired for I think literally nothing. They got Lopez turned him around then got Povich and Cano, then claimed Lopez back. Of course they got Bautista for nothing and also Coloumbe. And Bryan Baker and Cionel Perez also.

 

I think ya basically every good RP they have was created from thin air

 

Bautista has been there for like 8 years. Perez and Baker kind of suck. This was the first year in the last 3 that Baltimore had a great pen overall. We'll see if it was a one-year thing, especially with Bautista dead.

[Dick_Pole]

I feel like an idiot. This is the third time this month I trolled myself reading "Blue Jays acquire Da...." on the main page, jump for a minute then realize it's just this f***ing thread. You all need to shut this s*** down for my own mental health.

[Spanky99]

I feel like an idiot. This is the third time this month I trolled myself reading "Blue Jays acquire Da...." on the main page, jump for a minute then realize it's just this f***ing thread. You all need to shut this s*** down for my own mental health.

 

[jaysblue]

There is a lot of (rightful) anger and frustration at this franchise and the front office that is laser focused on this trade at the moment because of the unique situation. The trade is merely symptom of a greater underlying cause. Ross Atkins is simply not very good at his job. Not the worst, but certainly not the best. Probably somewhere in the middle. Middling front office + high payroll = playoff team that doesn't get anywhere.

 

I see a lot of parallels between the Moreno and Stroman trades. Atkins is an awful poker player. He has a laser focus on something that needs to be done and other GMs smelled blood. Resulting in two trades that were overpays by the Jays. How do you take a strength (3 good catchers) that's generally an in demand position and someone else's weakness and turn it into a mediocre trade? Everyone could smell a mile away that the Jays weren't going into 2023 with three good catchers with a black hole in the OF and the Varsho trade was the best that came up. Why trade Hernandez a month before this one? So that everyone in the league sees your OF depth is on Little League level? A more adept FO would come into the spring with Hernandez, Kiermaier and the three catchers, have one or more of the three take reps elsewhere, and THEN make a move with a team desperate for a starting catcher. Then trade Hernandez if he's not part of the plan for 2023.

 

Ross Atkins is a beta male weenie. I said it before and circled right back to my initial opinion. He might be able to read fast, or land on Jeopardy or do math in his head, hire other beta male weenies who pulls the team's $100 million star pitcher in the 4th inning of a do-or-die game based on nerd stats out of a computer. But he lacks the skills of alpha males like winning at poker or building winning teams efficiently.

 

Very well said!

[Laika]

I think Baltimore might be getting too much credit for being a pitching factory. In the last 4 years they've taken Bradish, Cano, and maybe Coulombe from outside the org and turned them into excellent arms. Maybe a few other relievers who had a good year then fell off the year following. They've thrown a ton of s*** against the wall to find those guys though. I don't know if their working finding pitching from nothing is more impressive than Toronto turning Ray from a mess into a CY winner, Stripling into a 3-win SP etc...

 

Maybe

 

They've also made progress with some SP arms though

 

Bradish in particular but to a lesser extent they are getting the most out of Kremer. They had Wells going well for a bit. They get credit for drafting and developing Grayson. Shrewd Gibson signing.

[Terminator]

Creating something out of thin air is as much a result of necessity as it is anything else. Baltimore simply has to because they are cheapskates.

 

If the Jays have a hole at DH, Atkins isn't going to be dumpster diving for the Ryan O'Hearns of the world to fill it. Instead he signed Brandon Belt on a 1 year deal and he pumps out 2.3 WAR in 100 games. He also got 45 homers out of Semien on a one year deal and a Cy Young out of Robbie Ray on a 1 year deal. For a top 10 payroll that kind of stuff is similar to creating something out of nothing.