Toronto Blue Jays Roster Discussion (2022)

[Laika]

I traded a late 1st in 2024 + Tejay Antone + Carson Williams for Bellinger in the LOD.

 

He should be worth even less than that (or nothing?) in a 20 team league of course.

[Terminator]

 

I thought the Jansen fanboys and the Craig Biggio's Son fanboys were bad enough.

 

But the Bellinger fanboys are a new low for BJMB.

[Jimcanuck]

So swear by projection systems, except when it doesn't fit your narrative?

[L54]

I saw a little chink in Jim’s armor when BTS asked about him in trade. Jim would cut his losses for sure. How much I’m not sure

 

Maybe for a price nobody would be willing to pay

[Jimcanuck]

Maybe for a price nobody would be willing to pay

 

I consider every trade proposal that comes my way.

[Terminator]

You have to massage the projection systems when true talent changes occur.

 

For example, if a pitcher has a new effective pitch he throws 30% of the time his true talent has changed and one should consider that the projections rate him too low.

 

Another example is when a stoner CF/1B hybrid player has an MVP level season and then his shoulder turns into hamburger meat and he all of the sudden looks like Bradley Zimmer out there for a couple years running. In that case you'll want to be skeptical that the projection systems are factoring in the hamburger meat shoulder appropriately.

[Krylian]

 

I thought the Jansen fanboys and the Craig Biggio's Son fanboys were bad enough.

 

But the Bellinger fanboys are a new low for BJMB.

 

I'm going to enjoy watching some people on here implode if the Jays sign Bellinger. Will provide entertainment during a dreary offseason.

[Spanky99]

You have to massage the projection systems when true talent changes occur.

 

For example, if a pitcher has a new effective pitch he throws 30% of the time his true talent has changed and one should consider that the projections rate him too low.

 

Another example is when a stoner CF/1B hybrid player has an MVP level season and then his shoulder turns into hamburger meat and he all of the sudden looks like Bradley Zimmer out there for a couple years running. In that case you'll want to be skeptical that the projection systems are factoring in the hamburger meat shoulder appropriately.

 

Thanks Tips, lol

[BTS]

I traded a late 1st in 2024 + Tejay Antone + Carson Williams for Bellinger in the LOD.

 

He should be worth even less than that (or nothing?) in a 20 team league of course.

 

Late 2nd/early 3rd value in 20-teamers IMO. But probably only a couple teams willing to gamble on him. I doubt Jim would agree.

[BTS]

You have to massage the projection systems when true talent changes occur.

 

For example, if a pitcher has a new effective pitch he throws 30% of the time his true talent has changed and one should consider that the projections rate him too low.

 

Another example is when a stoner CF/1B hybrid player has an MVP level season and then his shoulder turns into hamburger meat and he all of the sudden looks like Bradley Zimmer out there for a couple years running. In that case you'll want to be skeptical that the projection systems are factoring in the hamburger meat shoulder appropriately.

 

Is the projection system even seeing his MVP season at this point?

[L54]

 

I thought the Jansen fanboys and the Craig Biggio's Son fanboys were bad enough.

 

But the Bellinger fanboys are a new low for BJMB.

 

Man at least these guys are fanboys of MLB players, you’re a fanboy of a BJMB poster lmao time to settle down

[wilko]

 

i thought the jansen fanboys and the craig biggio's son fanboys were bad enough.

 

But the bellinger fanboys are a new low for bjmb.

 

He hAs A NaMe!!!

[Laika]

Late 2nd/early 3rd value in 20-teamers IMO. But probably only a couple teams willing to gamble on him. I doubt Jim would agree.

 

yeah 3rd seems light, he was still a top 20 CF in our DDL settings with his 2022 stats.

 

but I probably would not give up a top 20 draft pick for him. maybe a 2nd + a young player I was not in love with.

[Terminator]

I'm going to enjoy watching some people on here implode if the Jays sign Bellinger. Will provide entertainment during a dreary offseason.

 

I wouldn't mind if they sign him. I think L54 said we should offer him 10 mil and if he rejects it who cares, just move on and find someone else and that sounds like a good plan to me.

[Jimcanuck]

You have to massage the projection systems when true talent changes occur.

 

For example, if a pitcher has a new effective pitch he throws 30% of the time his true talent has changed and one should consider that the projections rate him too low.

 

Another example is when a stoner CF/1B hybrid player has an MVP level season and then his shoulder turns into hamburger meat and he all of the sudden looks like Bradley Zimmer out there for a couple years running. In that case you'll want to be skeptical that the projection systems are factoring in the hamburger meat shoulder appropriately.

 

Nothing is static in baseball, mate.

 

Projection systems are the best tools available, to us anyway. Expect most teams have their own more advanced proprietary systems.

 

As I said, Belly is a viable target to be the Jays CF.

[G-Snarls]

Happy to have Bellinger on a short deal (what he wants) as long as the team recognizes you have to have solid offense from elsewhere. If he hits better than theast few years it's a bonus but you sure can't count on it.

 

OF defense with Bellinger in center and Springer in right would be a big improvement over 2022. Sorry Teo.

[Jonn]

“n0body is a fAn8b0y lulz”

 

Followed up by two paragraphs of unbridled adoration for Cody Bellinger, a guy who hasn’t been good in years

 

I think you’re starting to lose your mind old man.

[Deadpool]

Happy to have Bellinger on a short deal (what he wants) as long as the team recognizes you have to have solid offense from elsewhere. If he hits better than theast few years it's a bonus but you sure can't count on it.

 

OF defense with Bellinger in center and Springer in right would be a big improvement over 2022. Sorry Teo.

 

This team is going to score runs, so I'm honestly less worried about replacing Teo's bat than many seem to be. We had 7 players with at least 120 games and at least 114 wRC+ We also had Jansen (140), Moreno (113) and Merrifield (119) who contributed.

 

Losing Teo's bat isn't ideal, but even with his 129 wRC+, he only managed 2.4 WAR, and there are lots of ways to replace that 2.4 WAR (Bellinger was 1.7 last year with an 83 wRC+ for example).

 

I'm not super keen on taking a hacksaw to the lineup, and we still probably see a catcher moved so we'll lose something there, but hitting wasn't the team's problem and losing Teo probably won't hurt all that much depending on who we add as a CF.

[Krylian]

I wouldn't mind if they sign him. I think L54 said we should offer him 10 mil and if he rejects it who cares, just move on and find someone else and that sounds like a good plan to me.

 

I'm intrigued by Bellenger's upside and would like to see the Jays land him (for a reasonable amount). Also...I don't want him being the Teo replacement...he should be the Tapia replacement.

[Brownie19]

I'm intrigued by Bellenger's upside and would like to see the Jays land him (for a reasonable amount). Also...I don't want him being the Teo replacement...he should be the Tapia replacement.

 

I mean that would be ideal, but I strongly doubt he's going to sign with a team that doesn't offer him 550+ PA's in a fulltime role.

[glory]

I don't know if it's so much Bellinger love or just realistically looking at the options. Nimmo is going to cost something ridiculous like 5/120 or 6/130. Kiemaier is going to be 33 coming off hip surgery. FA market is not good for CF. Bellinger only wants a 1 year deal so even if he still sucks with the bat it's not going to tie the team down for years. With that said, the team definitely needs to add another OF even if they sign Bellinger, preferably one that is controllable. Next year's CF market isn't any better.

 

I've always been on the "trade with Arizona" train, but I'm doubling down on it now. CF is hard as hell to fill, especially a LH CF. They have 4 LH CF and the Jays have 3 big league catchers. There's a trade in there somewhere. Just find it already.

[InsideThePark]

I wonder how much of this Bellinger/Nimmo smoke is the Jays trying to put some pressure on Arizona. 2 days ago there was that Arizona won't trade Carroll and probably won't trade Varsho thing. The Jays are likely telling them Moreno/Kirk are off limits for Thomas. Arizona needs a catcher. If the Jays go out and fill that hole then Arizona has to look elsewhere. Perhaps trying to see if Arizona is serious about making something work or if they're content to look elsewhere by making it seem like the Jays are about to do something else.

[Solaxys]

If only Terminator was AZ's GM, he'd trade Carrol and throw in Galen for Kirk.

[John_Havok]

I mean that would be ideal, but I strongly doubt he's going to sign with a team that doesn't offer him 550+ PA's in a fulltime role.

 

Guaranteed he's going to Tampa. Them signing Bellinger for 1 year would be the 100% typical Rays move.

[Captain_Obvious]

If only Terminator was AZ's GM, he'd trade Carrol and throw in Galen for Kirk.

 

It balances out that he is not Toronto's GM. He would have traded Toronto's best player - Danny Jansen - for a rich man's Tapia.

[Spanky99]

[Terminator]

Looks like the Jansen Fanboys have got their panties in a bunch tonight lol

 

In a sea of endless Jansen Fanboy posts some sensible takes like mine might come across like I just "LOVE" Kirk and "HATE" Jansen. But if all you Jansen Fanboys upgraded your eyeglass prescriptions to the same level as your hero you would see that I'm just posting FACTS.

 

Kirk is a 23 year old silver slugger whose comparables are all HoFers. That's a fact. Danny Jansen gets hurt multiple times every year. That's also a fact.

 

Here's a few more facts for you: I don't think the D-Bags need a C as much as you guys hope (and I certainly wouldn't be overpaying for Kirk if I were running that team) and I've also come up with some perfect trade scenarios involving Jansen that get us a backend SP and ace reliever. But of course you fanboys are all as blind as Jansen himself so you don't see it.

 

Now excuse me while I go and win yet another Fall Darts League Championship and you guys can get back to arguing about your dream lineup of Crag Biggio's son at leadoff, Cody Bellinger hitting 2nd and Danny Jansen batting cleanup lmao

[Jonn]

Looks like the Jansen Fanboys have got their panties in a bunch tonight lol

 

In a sea of endless Jansen Fanboy posts some sensible takes like mine might come across like I just "LOVE" Kirk and "HATE" Jansen. But if all you Jansen Fanboys upgraded your eyeglass prescriptions to the same level as your hero you would see that I'm just posting FACTS.

 

Kirk is a 23 year old silver slugger whose comparables are all HoFers. That's a fact. Danny Jansen gets hurt multiple times every year. That's also a fact.

 

Here's a few more facts for you: I don't think the D-Bags need a C as much as you guys hope (and I certainly wouldn't be overpaying for Kirk if I were running that team) and I've also come up with some perfect trade scenarios involving Jansen that get us a backend SP and ace reliever. But of course you fanboys are all as blind as Jansen himself so you don't see it.

 

Now excuse me while I go and win yet another Fall Darts League Championship and you guys can get back to arguing about your dream lineup of Crag Biggio's son at leadoff, Cody Bellinger hitting 2nd and Danny Jansen batting cleanup lmao

 

I can’t wait until Kirk is traded.

[Terminator]

I can’t wait until Kirk is traded.

 

If Kirk gets traded and the return is fair I'm all for it Jonny Boy.

 

Unlike you Jansen Fanboys I just want what is best for the TEAM. I don't oddly devote myself to one good but incredibly flawed player while actively rooting that the team trade 23 year old silver sluggers or the #1 prospect in all of baseball like you guys do.

[Pendleton]

Looks like the Jansen Fanboys have got their panties in a bunch tonight lol

 

In a sea of endless Jansen Fanboy posts some sensible takes like mine might come across like I just "LOVE" Kirk and "HATE" Jansen. But if all you Jansen Fanboys upgraded your eyeglass prescriptions to the same level as your hero you would see that I'm just posting FACTS.

 

Kirk is a 23 year old silver slugger whose comparables are all HoFers. That's a fact. Danny Jansen gets hurt multiple times every year. That's also a fact.

 

Here's a few more facts for you: I don't think the D-Bags need a C as much as you guys hope (and I certainly wouldn't be overpaying for Kirk if I were running that team) and I've also come up with some perfect trade scenarios involving Jansen that get us a backend SP and ace reliever. But of course you fanboys are all as blind as Jansen himself so you don't see it.

 

Now excuse me while I go and win yet another Fall Darts League Championship and you guys can get back to arguing about your dream lineup of Crag Biggio's son at leadoff, Cody Bellinger hitting 2nd and Danny Jansen batting cleanup lmao

 

They've been linked to Willson Contreras, at least speculatively. I wonder if that means they have designs on using Varsho elsewhere on the diamond and at DH.

 

I can't believe there's any notion of moving Kirk, f*** that. He's an absolute treasure and needs to be protected from you savages. Nothing against Jansen but I'd trade him to connor to be his next wife if it meant the Jays keep Kirk.