General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2022)

[glory]

If they try to stretch him out again I will f***ing cry

 

Yeah seriously. Pearson better be a 1 inning max reliever going forward.

[L54]

He certainly 'looks' like a starter. It will be fascinating to see where his career goes from here. Right now it's obviously in our pen as we head into the playoffs.

 

The fact that Manoah emerged as a dude and Tiedemann isn’t far behind from getting a look means that you just plant big Nate in the bullpen and see what happens. Probably best for him and the team.

[Jimcanuck]

I see Nate as a potential Andrew Miller type, to come in for those starters that shouldn't do 3x through the order

[BigCecil]

lmao Merryweather you plug

 

how can someone be so ineffective with his stuff

 

the mind, it boggles

 

Yep. Jays and him have to figure this out. I thought he would be a sneaky material piece for our pen this year, but no matter who hard i squint at his performance, it boggles my mind how hittable and inconsistent he is with that stuff.

[Laika]

Yep. Jays and him have to figure this out. I thought he would be a sneaky material piece for our pen this year, but no matter who hard i squint at his performance, it boggles my mind how hittable and inconsistent he is with that stuff.

 

His 4S velo, extension, and spin rate all look very good

 

It must be something like spin direction that is very bad

 

Like the pitch just moves right into the barrel of the bat

[Solaxys]

 

LOL; we probably have the most ~1-run+ differential games against us than any other team.

[Daniel Labude]

Well they wanted to see back to back outings, now that has changed again

 

[Stangstag]

Well they wanted to see back to back outings, now that has changed again

 

 

Ugh this is so dumb. Let him contribute SOMETHING to the major league team

[Jimcanuck]

Ugh this is so dumb. Let him contribute SOMETHING to the major league team

 

Yes, why not stretch out to a 2 inning guy throwing darts for the Jays?

 

Anyway, he will on the team for the post season, def.

[keggy]

Are high sliders the 'new thing'? I don't think those pitches get MLB players out. Just saying.

 

Those sliders were garbage. I won't judge too harshly until I see a few more.

[Laika]

Well they wanted to see back to back outings, now that has changed again

 

 

Why can't they just do this up here

 

Give him a couple of try it out games against real hitters

[WryNGinger]

Why can't they just do this up here

 

Give him a couple of try it out games against real hitters

 

I don't think it's all about the arm and health with Pearson at this point. He needs to have a bit of a run of success at AAA I think. If he comes up and has a bad/unlucky inning I am not sure if he has the track record to have the mental strength to "shrug it off" like the more experienced guys. Dude has had Sami Salo type luck so far in his career. Hard to say if that is it for sure but I wouldn't want to be in his head if he comes up and gets lit up. I am rooting for him big time!

[Laika]

I don't think it's all about the arm and health with Pearson at this point. He needs to have a bit of a run of success at AAA I think. If he comes up and has a bad/unlucky inning I am not sure if he has the track record to have the mental strength to "shrug it off" like the more experienced guys. Dude has had Sami Salo type luck so far in his career. Hard to say if that is it for sure but I wouldn't want to be in his head if he comes up and gets lit up. I am rooting for him big time!

 

Right but there are like no games left.

 

For 2022... keeping him in the minors does not help AT ALL in figuring out if he can help the team in the playoffs.

[RobinThicc]

 

Why would they do this lol

[mphenhef]

Maybe Berrios' start last night will have them rethinking that. The cynic in me has me wondering if money from three games at home hasn't factored in too though.

[The Cats Ass]

 

Why would they do this lol

 

They're looking at the Rays Home/Away record. 50-28 at Home, 33-39 Away. Add in the fact we never play good in the Trop. I'd rather take our chances at home. This would also line up Manoah to pitch 2 games in the divisional round against a much tougher Astros team.

[Laika]

They're looking at the Rays Home/Away record. 50-28 at Home, 33-39 Away. Add in the fact we never play good in the Trop. I'd rather take our chances at home. This would also line up Manoah to pitch 2 games in the divisional round against a much tougher Astros team.

 

Manoah Gausman Stripling on the road

 

vs

 

Gausman Stripling Berrios/Bullpen at home

 

Imagine the smell though if they do this then lose the WC round with Manoah never throwing a playoff pitch.

 

And it's not even like you are choosing one vs the other, you can still win game 162 without Manoah.

[Stangstag]

Manoah Gausman Stripling on the road

 

vs

 

Gausman Stripling Berrios/Bullpen at home

 

Imagine the smell though if they do this then lose the WC round with Manoah never throwing a playoff pitch.

 

And it's not even like you are choosing one vs the other, you can still win game 162 without Manoah.

 

Wouldn’t be surprised if they used Manoah out of the bullpen in one of those WC games too though

[Stangstag]

Manoah Gausman Stripling on the road

 

vs

 

Gausman Stripling Berrios/Bullpen at home

 

Imagine the smell though if they do this then lose the WC round with Manoah never throwing a playoff pitch.

 

And it's not even like you are choosing one vs the other, you can still win game 162 without Manoah.

 

Worst case scenario would be they lose 3/4 against the Rays, start Manoah on game 162 and still lose that game and play the WC on the road

[Brownie19]

Manoah Gausman Stripling on the road

 

vs

 

Gausman Stripling Berrios/Bullpen at home

 

Imagine the smell though if they do this then lose the WC round with Manoah never throwing a playoff pitch.

 

And it's not even like you are choosing one vs the other, you can still win game 162 without Manoah.

 

This has disaster written all over it. Not that I agree with it, but if this doesn't work out for Schneider, he may not shed the "interim" manager title and we may be looking for someone new to lead the 2023 Blue Jays.

[Stangstag]

This has disaster written all over it. Not that I agree with it, but if this doesn't work out for Schneider, he may not shed the "interim" manager title and we may be looking for someone new to lead the 2023 Blue Jays.

 

I don't really see this as a Schneider choice at all

[Laika]

I don't really see this as a Schneider choice at all

 

definitely not

[Laika]

*adjusts glasses* sir! we've ran the regression model six million times and can conclude that starting Alex Manoah in tomorrow's final game of the season will improve our odds of advancing to the divisional series by 1.467%

[Olerud363]

*adjusts glasses* sir! we've ran the regression model six million times and can conclude that starting Alex Manoah in tomorrow's final game of the season will improve our odds of advancing to the divisional series by 1.467%

 

What is the revenue from 3 playoff home games?

 

Of course if Manoah starts in a wild card series it increases chances of playoff home games in later rounds.

 

They also need to keep him in reserve in case game 162 is meaningful for the playoff race. There is still like a 5% chance it will be meaningful for Toronto and a 10% chance it could be meaningful for Baltimore. Or something like that.

 

I mean supposedly Toronto had a 99.9% chance of making the playoffs, but that is already down to 98% in 2 days. So what are chances game 162 is meaningful? 4%? I don't think the playoff odds consider injuries, bullpen burnout, and 'pressing'.

 

Seems people on the board have started claiming 'pressing' is a real thing. OK. So that means all the playoff odds aren't quite right. They probably assume uncorrelated events, but if pressing is real, the team being chased could start pressing, results will become correlated.

[Spanky99]

What is the revenue from 3 playoff home games?

 

 

I read on twitter today it's split 50/50 between the 2 teams, not sure if it's true, just saying.

[John_Havok]

I read on twitter today it's split 50/50 between the 2 teams, not sure if it's true, just saying.

 

Under the labor agreement for the 2021 season, the post-season total player bonus pool was made up of:

 

50% of the gate receipts from the wild-card games

60% of the gate receipts from the first three games of the division series

60% of the gate receipts from the first four games of the league championship series

60% of the gate receipts from the first four games of the World Series.

 

The players’ pool is then divided up among the teams in the postseason. For reference: For the 2021 World Series-winning Atlanta Braves, their shares of the postseason pool totaled $32,568,712. The value of a full share shifts depending on how many are awarded by a vote of the team. In the Braves’ case, a share was worth $397,391. The team doled out 66 full shares, a total of 14.25 partial shares and 38 cash awards.

 

 

I cannot find if that formula has been tweaked at all with the expanded playoffs.

[Spanky99]

Under the labor agreement for the 2021 season, the post-season total player bonus pool was made up of:

 

50% of the gate receipts from the wild-card games

60% of the gate receipts from the first three games of the division series

60% of the gate receipts from the first four games of the league championship series

60% of the gate receipts from the first four games of the World Series.

 

The players’ pool is then divided up among the teams in the postseason. For reference: For the 2021 World Series-winning Atlanta Braves, their shares of the postseason pool totaled $32,568,712. The value of a full share shifts depending on how many are awarded by a vote of the team. In the Braves’ case, a share was worth $397,391. The team doled out 66 full shares, a total of 14.25 partial shares and 38 cash awards.

 

 

I cannot find if that formula has been tweaked at all with the expanded playoffs.

 

Yes, that's what I read this morning on the WC series.

[L54]

*adjusts glasses* sir! we've ran the regression model six million times and can conclude that starting Alex Manoah in tomorrow's final game of the season will improve our odds of advancing to the divisional series by 1.467%

 

Lmao exactly

[MikeM3]

I'd take Manoah against the Dodgers before I take whatever shaky handed beta we are forced to put out there against the Rays.

[glory]

I don't really see this as a Schneider choice at all

 

Yeah, something like that wouldn't be Schneider's call.

 

Home field is important, especially if facing the Rays, but not sure I'd make that trade off losing Manoah for the WC series. It's not even a guarantee the Jays win game 162 with Manoah on the mound, and I don't want 2022 Berrios anywhere near a mound during the WC series.