General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2022)

[Stangstag]

 

Crazy how big the dropoff from 1/2 to 3/4/5 is though lol.

 

Glad we’ll have Chapman back next year, but it will be interesting to see how the FO tries to replace him and Teo for 2024

[jaysblue]

Crazy how big the dropoff from 1/2 to 3/4/5 is though lol.

 

Glad we’ll have Chapman back next year, but it will be interesting to see how the FO tries to replace him and Teo for 2024

 

That's why its so crucial to take advantage of these years, especially 2023. No messing around.

[John_Havok]

I was kicking around an idea of stats last night and ... hard hit and exit velocity are great and all, but if youre not contacting enough baseballs overall, what good is it?

 

LIke, if Im starting from the ground up on a hitter and want to prioritize skills.... my first skill wanted would be contact rate. If the skill we want in our pitchers is the ability to miss bats, then logically, the skill we want in our hitter is the ability to not miss balls.

 

So, Skill 1 - contact. Then what... barrel rate? Exit velocity? Swing decisions? Swing path? Which of those would be prioritized and to what level does one have to be higher to overcome a failure in the others? Would swing decisions be the second most important right after contact?

 

Im thinking out loud here...

 

1. Contact

2. Swing Decisions

3. Barrel Rate

4. avg exit velo

 

what am i missing in this list that would be really important

[Jimcanuck]

I was kicking around an idea of stats last night and ... hard hit and exit velocity are great and all, but if youre not contacting enough baseballs overall, what good is it?

 

LIke, if Im starting from the ground up on a hitter and want to prioritize skills.... my first skill wanted would be contact rate. If the skill we want in our pitchers is the ability to miss bats, then logically, the skill we want in our hitter is the ability to not miss balls.

 

So, Skill 1 - contact. Then what... barrel rate? Exit velocity? Swing decisions? Swing path? Which of those would be prioritized and to what level does one have to be higher to overcome a failure in the others? Would swing decisions be the second most important right after contact?

 

Im thinking out loud here...

 

1. Contact

2. Swing Decisions

3. Barrel Rate

4. avg exit velo

 

what am i missing in this list that would be really important

 

Launch angle needs to be in there somewheres, as we've seen from Vladdy, exit velo only goes so far if the launch angle is s***. So probably, launch angle ranks higher than exit velo

[John_Havok]

Launch angle needs to be in there somewheres, as we've seen from Vladdy, exit velo only goes so far if the launch angle is s***. So probably, launch angle ranks higher than exit velo

 

good point

[Terminator]

Really looking forward to this new stat that you guys come up with

[BigCecil]

Really looking forward to this new stat that you guys come up with

 

lol. never go full troll

[Laika]

I was kicking around an idea of stats last night and ... hard hit and exit velocity are great and all, but if youre not contacting enough baseballs overall, what good is it?

 

LIke, if Im starting from the ground up on a hitter and want to prioritize skills.... my first skill wanted would be contact rate. If the skill we want in our pitchers is the ability to miss bats, then logically, the skill we want in our hitter is the ability to not miss balls.

 

So, Skill 1 - contact. Then what... barrel rate? Exit velocity? Swing decisions? Swing path? Which of those would be prioritized and to what level does one have to be higher to overcome a failure in the others? Would swing decisions be the second most important right after contact?

 

Im thinking out loud here...

 

1. Contact

2. Swing Decisions

3. Barrel Rate

4. avg exit velo

 

what am i missing in this list that would be really important

 

You can limit runs without missing a ton of bats, and produce runs without making a lot of contact

 

A lot of these things are tradeoffs. Doesn't really make sense to rank them. It would make sense to try to distill their relative importance though, to get a sense of what kind of tradeoff is sensible i.e. is 10% less contact for 30% more power good or not enough?

 

Also, you have to decide how proximate you get to the physical person. Like Barrel Rate is a RESULTS stat combining launch angle and exit velocity. Launch angle is influenced by both swing decisions and swing plane and hand eye coordination. Max exit velo is a decent proxy measure of brute strength + bat speed but average exit velocity is also influenced by hand eye coordination (making decent contact a lot).

 

You could even remove the human from baseball and measure:

hand eye coordination

visual-mental decision making rapidity (eye tests) and accuracy

raw strength

rotational speed

range of motion / flexibility

 

These are the physical components of all of your stuff right

[Laika]

If the goal is to separate hitting into new skills OR tools that a basic scout or statistician could be trained to rank on the 20-80 scale I would probably go with:

 

1. Hit tool; ability to put wood on the ball or but the sweet spot of the bat on the ball (proxy measures are contact% and sweet spot %)

2. Swing decisions; tendency to swing at good pitches to hit and spit on others

3. Pitch recognition; identifying pitch types and ball/strike out of the pitcher's hand

4. Power; easiest to measure. it's basically max EV

5. Swing plane; is the swing mechanically conducive to contact or good launch angles?

 

#5 is not really a 20-80 scale thing more of a categorical thing. But I am thinking of players with say good physical hand-eye coordination, good power, good decision making who just have a mechanically improper swing with holes in it that sells them short. It would be helpful to have a way to identify and measure that.

 

#2 and #3 sound the same and they are similar but I think they are distinct enough. Recognizing the pitch and deciding whether or not to swing at it might be two different things? I dunno.

[Laika]

I highly recommend listing to Rates and Barrels

 

it's Eno Sarris' fantasy podcast

 

he talks about stat player evaluation stuff from time to time and it's all very insightful

[John_Havok]

Really looking forward to this new stat that you guys come up with

 

It wouldnt necessarily be a statistic, more of a player evaluation measure that would hopefully be predictive of results, or identify guys that might only need to improve 1 aspect of the total package to break out.

[bones10]

Springer out of the lineup today lul.

 

Fouled a ball off his knee and has an owie

[Krylian]

Springer out of the lineup today lul.

 

Fouled a ball off his knee and has an owie

 

This FO needs to only focus on adding players that are made of iron. Pearson, Springer, Merryweather. No bueno.

[John_Havok]

You can limit runs without missing a ton of bats, and produce runs without making a lot of contact

 

A lot of these things are tradeoffs. Doesn't really make sense to rank them. It would make sense to try to distill their relative importance though, to get a sense of what kind of tradeoff is sensible i.e. is 10% less contact for 30% more power good or not enough?

 

Also, you have to decide how proximate you get to the physical person. Like Barrel Rate is a RESULTS stat combining launch angle and exit velocity. Launch angle is influenced by both swing decisions and swing plane and hand eye coordination. Max exit velo is a decent proxy measure of brute strength + bat speed but average exit velocity is also influenced by hand eye coordination (making decent contact a lot).

 

You could even remove the human from baseball and measure:

hand eye coordination

visual-mental decision making rapidity (eye tests) and accuracy

raw strength

rotational speed

range of motion / flexibility

 

These are the physical components of all of your stuff right

 

Yeah, your points are what I was trying to get at. Trying to find players that excel at 1 or 2 of the things mentioned isn't all that hard, the naked numbers are available, but weighting them into a cause and effect type of process that enables a teacm to teach the weaker aspects to get more out of your players is the ultimate goal

 

Contact rate + bad swing decisions and not a great barell rate and you end up with Tapia or Pillar.

 

add a much better barrel rate and you get Bo Bichette 2021.

 

Contact rate + elite exit velo but not so great swing decisions but still a decent barrel rate and you get Vlad Guerrero 2022

[John_Havok]

Springer out of the lineup today lul.

 

Fouled a ball off his knee and has an owie

 

If there was a stat kept for fouling balls of your own legs, Springer would lead the majors by a ton. hell that one game he fouled a ball off both his legs on the same pitch. He brings it on himself though because he cant lay off those pitches 3 and 4 inches off the inner edge.

[G-Snarls]

Springer out of the lineup today lul.

 

Fouled a ball off his knee and has an owie

 

I'd kill to see Springer play 150 games in a season

[G-Snarls]

If there was a stat kept for fouling balls of your own legs, Springer would lead the majors by a ton. hell that one game he fouled a ball off both his legs on the same pitch. He brings it on himself though because he cant lay off those pitches 3 and 4 inches off the inner edge.

 

He also crushes a lot those for extra base hits but yeah... Gets hurt too much.

[John_Havok]

He also crushes a lot those for extra base hits but yeah... Gets hurt too much.

 

He really doesnt though. If they're they're on the inner half IN the strike zone... damage. Inside... he has nearly 0 damage (unless you count the foul balls to the shins, feet and knees).

 

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/george-springer-543807?stats=statcast-r-zones-mlb

[Ehjays]

Blue Jays Showing Interest In Billy Hamilton

By Darragh McDonald | August 19, 2022 at 8:14pm CDT

 

The Blue Jays are showing interest in outfielder Billy Hamilton, tweets Shi Davidi of Sportsnet. Hamilton had been outrighted by the Marlins last week but rejected that assignment and elected free agency, as was his right as a player with more than three years of MLB service time.

 

Hamilton, 31, is a veteran who has appeared in each of the past ten MLB seasons. He’s never been a tremendous hitter, as evidenced by his career batting line of .239/.293/.326, but he’s long been one of the fastest players in the league, allowing him to provide value with baserunning and defense.

 

He began this year on a minor league deal with the Mariners, getting into 22 games with the Triple-A Tacoma Rainiers before triggering an opt-out clause and returning to free agency. He then landed with the Marlins on another minor league deal, getting selected to the big league club just over a week later. He spent just over a month with the Fish before getting outrighted last week.

 

He was largely used off the bench in that stint in the big leagues, getting into 20 games but making just 15 plate appearances. He hit a paltry .077/.143/.077 in that time, but stole seven bases without getting caught.

 

Despite the lackluster results with the bat, most contending teams will be interested in players like Hamilton. The ability to steal a base or make a difficult catch in a key moment can make a big difference in the later innings. With extra innings now beginning with a runner already on second base, having a speedy pinch runner on the bench arguably becomes even more important. With rosters expanding from 26 to 28 in September, it will become easier for a team to find space for a player of this ilk.

 

The Blue Jays recently made a switch in this area of their roster, signing Jackie Bradley Jr. after he was released by the Red Sox but then later designating Bradley Zimmer for assignment. Zimmer was subsequently claimed off waivers by the Phillies. As Davidi notes, the Jays have been focused on adding depth options, recently signing first baseman/outfielder Yoshi Tsutsugo to a minor league deal. If they can get Hamilton to put pen to paper, it would add another layer of depth as the club gears up for the stretch run. Coming into tonight’s action, the Jays and Rays are tied for the second and third Wild Card spots in the American League, but with four teams within five games.

[Ehjays]

 

WTF Are we collecting OF that cant hit

[max silver]

 

WTF Are we collecting OF that cant hit

 

The front office is busy playing a pointless game of s***** outfielder merry go round. Shuffling from Zimmer to Bradley Jr. to Hamilton is just so pointless. Maybe the prognosis of Springer playing more than semi occasional outfield is looking bleak and Hamilton may provide some injury backup for in case Bradley Jr. goes down with injury.

[keggy]

Hamilton has 15 PA and 7 SBs lol.

[max silver]

Hamilton has 15 PA and 7 SBs lol.

He's likely a real terror on the bases. It would be quite the improvement being able to upgrade Alejandro Kirk into Billy Hamilton in a big moment late in the game.

[Brownie19]

 

WTF Are we collecting OF that cant hit

 

Because playoff teams often add a pure SB threat in September when the rosters expand and carry them in the playoffs as a specialty player. Terrace Gore has been on several playoff rosters over the past 6-8 years I believe.

 

We could also be interested in adding him to our AAA roster as insurance for an injury to JBJ or something.

[Laika]

The front office is busy playing a pointless game of s***** outfielder merry go round. Shuffling from Zimmer to Bradley Jr. to Hamilton is just so pointless. Maybe the prognosis of Springer playing more than semi occasional outfield is looking bleak and Hamilton may provide some injury backup for in case Bradley Jr. goes down with injury.

 

If it’s pointless then why the f*** do you care?

[G-Snarls]

We just destroyed the Yankees in back to back games at Yankee stadium

 

I suddenly don't care that much who our 5th OF is

[Masterbather]

A great base stealer can absolutely steal you games in October when runs are truly at a premium. Ideally, they wouldn't be black holes offensively because it's tough to justify a roster spot for strictly a base runner, but on the other hand they can also be the difference between winning and losing playoff games and beggars can't be choosers.

 

This is a team that doesn't have the greatest approach against pitchers that execute well. They don't grind out runs very well at all. So for us, it might be especially important.

 

On a side note, the disrespect that Gausman is getting is becoming rather annoying. Both within the fanbase and clearly the idiots working the game yesterday and I think in general, people really don't understand just how good this dude has been. He's literally one of the best pitchers in the game. He's a true ace and most certainly the ace of this team. It's not even particularly close between him and Manoah, and I love Manoah, but come on.

[Sorrow]

Gausman is tied for first in the MLB in fWAR at 4.7 and leads the AL in fWAR. Manoah is around 2.7 and Stripling at 2.2.

[Spanky99]

A great base stealer can absolutely steal you games in October when runs are truly at a premium. Ideally, they wouldn't be black holes offensively because it's tough to justify a roster spot for strictly a base runner, but on the other hand they can also be the difference between winning and losing playoff games and beggars can't be choosers.

 

This is a team that doesn't have the greatest approach against pitchers that execute well. They don't grind out runs very well at all. So for us, it might be especially important.

 

On a side note, the disrespect that Gausman is getting is becoming rather annoying. Both within the fanbase and clearly the idiots working the game yesterday and I think in general, people really don't understand just how good this dude has been. He's literally one of the best pitchers in the game. He's a true ace and most certainly the ace of this team. It's not even particularly close between him and Manoah, and I love Manoah, but come on.

 

By fanbase, you mean social media? What was said during the telecast?

[Laika]

By fanbase, you mean social media? What was said during the telecast?

 

I’ve heard numerous pundits say Manoah is Toronto’s Ace.

 

It’s just Wins and ERA bias I guess