The Blue Jays acquire Zack Collins in exchange for Reese McGuire

[max silver]

 

I'm super excited to follow Martinez and Moreno rocket their way through the upper reaches of the minor league system. I think Martinez may end up forcing the front office's hands with a huge AAA performance as soon as next year, whereas Moreno will likely be doing the same by the end of the summer.

[Olerud363]

A good sign for the MLB roster construction but don't expect Collins to ever help the MLB team.

 

Every projection system has him at about 0.5 WAR in 40 games. That would help the team in the event of an injury.

 

He was a 10th overall pick, and has a minor league on base of .380 and is a real big guy.

 

Could be a very good hitter for a catcher, though his defense seems to rate terrible.

 

It's also old scouts wisdom that you take a catcher or 3rd basemen, big guy, struggling with defense, but obvious eye at the plate and power, and just put them at DH and say 'hit boy' and they hit.

 

The guy could get some Dh time if needed. I was going to say 'he reminds me of Ken Phelps', but even though I'm old, I was still only 3 or something when Ken Phelps was in his prime.

 

So I looked up and Ken Phelps basically hit like Barry Bonds, when Phelps was in Wichita, so I guess Collins isn't Ken Phelps after all. Or maybe he is... and they just have to take him off catcher and let him slug.

[Grant77]

Every projection system has him at about 0.5 WAR in 40 games. That would help the team in the event of an injury.

 

He was a 10th overall pick, and has a minor league on base of .380 and is a real big guy.

 

Could be a very good hitter for a catcher, though his defense seems to rate terrible.

 

It's also old scouts wisdom that you take a catcher or 3rd basemen, big guy, struggling with defense, but obvious eye at the plate and power, and just put them at DH and say 'hit boy' and they hit.

 

The guy could get some Dh time if needed. I was going to say 'he reminds me of Ken Phelps', but even though I'm old, I was still only 3 or something when Ken Phelps was in his prime.

 

So I looked up and Ken Phelps basically hit like Barry Bonds, when Phelps was in Wichita, so I guess Collins isn't Ken Phelps after all. Or maybe he is... and they just have to take him off catcher and let him slug.

 

It's clear that he has some hitting ability based on his minor league track record, like you say. Until we get a better option, I think he makes the team. His presence allows you to pinch run or pinch hit for Kirk and Jansen. I think that's more valuable than what another 40 man guy like Palacios or Lopez would add.

[Spanky99]

It's clear that he has some hitting ability based on his minor league track record, like you say. Until we get a better option, I think he makes the team. His presence allows you to pinch run or pinch hit for Kirk and Jansen. I think that's more valuable than what another 40 man guy like Palacios or Lopez would add.

 

Big year for those two.

[Brownie19]

Solid move. We're hoping to find lightning in a bottle here. The guy has a pedigree and minor league success to back it up (Reese always lacked the later of those 2). The option he has gives us a heck of a lot more flexibility too. Stat scouting, his bat reminds me of Grandel without the elite defense.

[z3r0s]

Reese just had no spot on this team. Options and some potential with the bat with Collins, so I think this was a great move.

[Sammy225]

So i am thinking that this means they will not be carrying 3 catchers and likely going to go with extra pitching while the rosters are expanded correct?

[JaysAllMighty]

So i am thinking that this means they will not be carrying 3 catchers and likely going to go with extra pitching while the rosters are expanded correct?

 

Kirk is going to be a work in progress, I hope all goes well with his catching part of the game.

[Laika]

Every projection system has him at about 0.5 WAR in 40 games. That would help the team in the event of an injury.

 

He was a 10th overall pick, and has a minor league on base of .380 and is a real big guy.

 

Could be a very good hitter for a catcher, though his defense seems to rate terrible.

 

It's also old scouts wisdom that you take a catcher or 3rd basemen, big guy, struggling with defense, but obvious eye at the plate and power, and just put them at DH and say 'hit boy' and they hit.

 

The guy could get some Dh time if needed. I was going to say 'he reminds me of Ken Phelps', but even though I'm old, I was still only 3 or something when Ken Phelps was in his prime.

 

So I looked up and Ken Phelps basically hit like Barry Bonds, when Phelps was in Wichita, so I guess Collins isn't Ken Phelps after all. Or maybe he is... and they just have to take him off catcher and let him slug.

 

I think Collins is like a first percentile pitch framer, about as bad as it gets.

 

The projection systems are still buoyed a bit by his prior MiLB indicators but this is a guy who has failed spectacularly to acclimatize to MLB pitching and then demonstrated those flaws even in AAA in 2021. As usual, the challenge with projection systems is figuring out when exactly it's appropriate to inject your human brainpower.

 

He is projected for a wRC+ between like 80 and 97 depending on the system. In 2021 he had a 90 wRC+ and was worth -0.7 fWAR.

 

I just can't appreciate him as anything more than an emergency catching option who is perhaps good enough to:

 

- literally catch most pitches thrown by an MLB pitcher

- run into the odd home run

[Terminator]

Bird was just cut so I think Collins will make the team.

 

He’s like a combination of what Reese McGuire (3rd C) and Greg Bird (lefty bat) were going to bring to the table and that will free up another spot for someone who can play the field like Gatoh or Lukes.

[L54]

I don’t think Zack Collins is good at all. Can he even be considered a C at this point?

[John_Havok]

Bird was just cut so I think Collins will make the team.

 

He’s like a combination of what Reese McGuire (3rd C) and Greg Bird (lefty bat) were going to bring to the table and that will free up another spot for someone who can play the field like Gatoh or Lukes.

 

They both could have made the team though given Bird was on a minor league deal and there was still an open 40 man roster spot.

[Jimcanuck]

I don’t think Zack Collins is good at all. Can he even be considered a C at this point?

 

He's an emergency C, only. A couple of innings, hopefully never.

 

Just a stopgap until Moreno is ready to share (or take over) C duties with Jansen.

[Terminator]

They both could have made the team though given Bird was on a minor league deal and there was still an open 40 man roster spot.

 

How many left handed DHs do we need on the bench? Only room for one of them IMO. Collins could have been optioned but the 40 man would have been full if we kept Bird and the other options for the final bench spot among the 40 man roster were crap. Now with Collins on the team we still have one spot left to add a guy like Katoh or Lukes to both the 40 man and and big league roster.

[Krylian]

Lol! Not sure if anyone posted this already.

 

[Stangstag]

Lol! Not sure if anyone posted this already.

 

 

Lol dkm

[Jimcanuck]

Ya gotta be kidding

[Grant77]

How many left handed DHs do we need on the bench? Only room for one of them IMO. Collins could have been optioned but the 40 man would have been full if we kept Bird and the other options for the final bench spot among the 40 man roster were crap. Now with Collins on the team we still have one spot left to add a guy like Katoh or Lukes to both the 40 man and and big league roster.

 

I have to think that someone better than Katoh or Lukes will become available in the next day or two as teams pare down their rosters.

[Laika]

Bird was just cut so I think Collins will make the team.

 

He’s like a combination of what Reese McGuire (3rd C) and Greg Bird (lefty bat) were going to bring to the table and that will free up another spot for someone who can play the field like Gatoh or Lukes.

 

But he looks like a horrible tweener - not enough D to actually catch and not enough stick to actually play DH/1B.

 

ZACK COLLINS IS A CLASSIC TWEENER

[Laika]

Lol! Not sure if anyone posted this already.

 

 

lol okay

[King]

That tweet was posted by Gideon Turk. He's trolling and it's not true.

[Terminator]

I have to think that someone better than Katoh or Lukes will become available in the next day or two as teams pare down their rosters.

 

Idk maybe. This team ran with Joe Panik for multiple seasons bc it’s hard to find decent bench players who are okay with that role. We could perhaps trade for somebody but signing someone better than those two could be difficult as weird as that sounds. No one will lineup to be 3rd in line after the starters and then Espinal.

[Olerud363]

As usual, the challenge with projection systems is figuring out when exactly it's appropriate to inject your human brainpower.

 

Humans suck.

 

As a human I could inject the following adjustments and raise his projected WAR-- are they valid?? Maybe. Maybe not.

 

1. He was a 10th overall pick, must be something there.

2. Blue Jays scouts must not think his D is as bad as you do, or else they wouldn't have got him.

3. Lots of walks and homers in the minors, those are good

4. Lots of walks in the majors but not as many homers in the majors as you'd expect. So maybe some extra homers will still show up.

5. He's a big strong guy and Pat Tabler tells me those types have potential.

[Laika]

Humans suck.

 

As a human I could inject the following adjustments and raise his projected WAR-- are they valid?? Maybe. Maybe not.

 

1. He was a 10th overall pick, must be something there.

2. Blue Jays scouts must not think his D is as bad as you do, or else they wouldn't have got him.

3. Lots of walks and homers in the minors, those are good

4. Lots of walks in the majors but not as many homers in the majors as you'd expect. So maybe some extra homers will still show up.

5. He's a big strong guy and Pat Tabler tells me those types have potential.

 

1. invalid, too long ago

2. sure

3. less valid - those become irrelevant over time

4. too passive

5. any reference to Pat Tabler = downgrade

[Olerud363]

1. invalid, too long ago

2. sure

3. less valid - those become irrelevant over time

4. too passive

5. any reference to Pat Tabler = downgrade

 

3. He hit awesome in 2019. Hasn't played in the minors really since.

 

Things are still a bit messed up because of the missing 2020 minor league stats and shortened major league. Not like he's had 1000 at bats since 2019 and struggled in the minors. Not a lot of data here.

[Laika]

3. He hit awesome in 2019. Hasn't played in the minors really since.

 

Things are still a bit messed up because of the missing 2020 minor league stats and shortened major league. Not like he's had 1000 at bats since 2019 and struggled in the minors. Not a lot of data here.

 

Yeah but EVEN IF there were MiLB stats and he played a lot and hit well, it becomes less relevant over time as he shows he can't translate that to the majors and he is older vs. the average age of AAA.

 

But the most compelling anti-Collins argument is the basic observation that he had a 90 wRC+ in 2021 and was a dumpster fire in terms of WAR and he projects for the same offensive production.

 

So you can't really expect more offense. You can hope for it but you can't expect it. The most you can reasonably expect is noise in the previous defensive numbers. You pray to the god of stats that he can actually defend and then you pray to Jesus Christ that he learns how to make more contact (or just hit more homers, like Mike Zunino). Or you just pray to Shatkins that he is not long for the roster.

[Krylian]

None of this matters. The roadblock in getting JRam here is gone now that Reese has been moved. For that alone, Collins is gold.

[Pendleton]

Yeah but EVEN IF there were MiLB stats and he played a lot and hit well, it becomes less relevant over time as he shows he can't translate that to the majors and he is older vs. the average age of AAA.

 

But the most compelling anti-Collins argument is the basic observation that he had a 90 wRC+ in 2021 and was a dumpster fire in terms of WAR and he projects for the same offensive production.

 

So you can't really expect more offense. You can hope for it but you can't expect it. The most you can reasonably expect is noise in the previous defensive numbers. You pray to the god of stats that he can actually defend and then you pray to Jesus Christ that he learns how to make more contact (or just hit more homers, like Mike Zunino). Or you just pray to Shatkins that he is not long for the roster.

 

Agreed that expectations should be minimal to non existant. I hold onto a sliver of hope because I'm sure the Jays have specific ideas to help him improve his approach at the dish, and the pedigree has been there previously.

[TwistedLogic]

None of this matters. The roadblock in getting JRam here is gone now that Reese has been moved. For that alone, Collins is gold.

Please tell me you didn't fall for the obvious satire in that tweet, lol.

 

[Krylian]

Please tell me you didn't fall for the obvious satire in that tweet, lol.

 

You mean the same way you missed mine?