Matt Chapman to the Jays for Hoglund, Smith, Logue, and Snead

[jerb]

 

Chris Black

@DownToBlack

 

Just to put in perspective how good Chapman can be.... He had a 7.6 WAR season in 2018 & 7.7 in '19...

 

Highest Single-Season WAR

Blue Jays Third Basemen

 

Josh Donaldson (2016) 7.2

Josh Donaldson (2015) 7.1

Kelly Gruber (1988) 5.2

Kelly Gruber (1989) 5.0

[The Cats Ass]

I'm surprised people seem lukewarm on this. Chapman probably helps the team as much as Freeman does. He might be a half win worse in a vacuum, but he actually plays the team's biggest position of need, doesn't force messy solutions like Vlad to 3B, and won't cost 180M. And he's really, really fun to watch.

 

And he makes our pitchers better.

[Laika]

Matt Chapman takes the tingle out of the pants from Freeman (who prob will be some crazy amount I concede), Ramirez, Ketel.. his K trend is very concerning. Why are you sabr nerds pretending that red flag isn’t there. Wait for the GDTs.

 

he doesn't even have to get better for the trade to be solid

 

he can hit 7th, strikeout 30% of the time, and still be a 100 wRC+, 3 WAR player

[Olerud363]

IÂ’m not necessarily comparing to two directly. Suggesting save your bullets for something better. EE would be stop gap to see if maybe Moreno develops there. JG doesnÂ’t suck etc

 

I see what you are saying. I agree the 200 ks are a bit worrisome. Otherwise Chapman is an ideal bounce back candidate and replacement for Semien.

 

The sum of the off-season now replaces Ray/Matz/Semien with players with very close 2022 projections.

 

While Chapman might seem like a risk he also has huge reward. Not hard seeing him hit .250 and power explode in Toronto and be back to 7 WAR level.

[rookiefuzz]

I'm surprised people seem lukewarm on this. Chapman probably helps the team as much as Freeman does. He might be a half win worse in a vacuum, but he actually plays the team's biggest position of need, doesn't force messy solutions like Vlad to 3B, and won't cost 180M. And he's really, really fun to watch.

 

This is an ideal situation IMO. Second only to possibly JRAM

[Grant77]

are we that concerned about getting a dedicated DH with our lineup? Lots of guys will want a breather throughout the season. I wonder if we should be saving our bullets for a BP upgrade instead.

 

I think that getting a left handed bat that can DH part time and pinch hit should be the team's top priority on the hitting side of things right now. Eddie Rosario is interesting to me.

[connorp]

Unbearable? He's never posted a below average wRC+. Escobar's ceiling is Chapman's floor in terms of WAR.

 

I think more than anything I’m just initially upset bc I thought Jays would make a bigger move somewhere. Idk. Guess the dust all has to settle. His offensive profile trajectory

is concerning though. You can be near or bullish on it I guess.

[Stangstag]

If Kevin Smith is the biggest piece going to Oakland then I love this trade.

 

Please no Kirk/Moreno/Pearson

[Virgil_Hiltz]

What other 3rd baseman in the AL would you rather have than Chapman....Devers or Ramirez?

Personally I cant think of any other....

[glory]

The overall quality of the deal depends on who is going to Oakland in this deal, but Chapman is a big upgrade for the 2022-23 teams. The fact that he only has two years of control left isn't that big of a deal as it gives Martinez and Groshans (if he's not included in the deal) a couple of years to develop. He also probably has some bounce back potential with the bat. The ceiling is elite, the floor is a 3+ WAR. The market (free agent and trade) only had two quality 3B options for this team, one of them probably isn't available, and the other was just acquired by the Jays.

[Stangstag]

I think more than anything I’m just initially upset bc I thought Jays would make a bigger move somewhere. Idk. Guess the dust all has to settle. His offensive profile trajectory

is concerning though. You can be near or bullish on it I guess.

 

Chapman could turn out to be a lot like the Semien signing. He could easily return to an MVP-caliber player.

 

Although personally I don’t think the bat will be quite as good as before, I think he’s better than what he showed last season.

[Deadpool]

Feels like we still need to add one more nice bat.

 

Where?

 

We have 3 good OF bats (plus 1 who is so f***ing streaky he could carry the whole team for a month at times), 3 good infield bats (plus 2 who have shown they can be very solid) and 2 good catcher bats. I'm of the opinion that the DH spot is best used to give players partial rest days, and I don't think you're signing any of the decent available bats to come in to a bench role.

 

Also, this team is really, really good at hitting as constructed already.

[Krylian]

I'm gonna love hearing the casuals comment on a .210 avridge with 200 K's.

[Deadpool]

This is an ideal situation IMO. Second only to possibly JRAM

 

Considering the difference in cost (presumably), I much prefer this to Ramirez.

[Pendleton]

I think more than anything I’m just initially upset bc I thought Jays would make a bigger move somewhere. Idk. Guess the dust all has to settle. His offensive profile trajectory

is concerning though. You can be near or bullish on it I guess.

 

Despite the recent struggles, based on track record prior to the trade, it's easily one of the bigger (not saying biggest) trade acquisitions in club history.

[Slade]

Hoping Pearson is still here, ok with sending Kirk or Groshan.

[z3r0s]

Where?

 

We have 3 good OF bats (plus 1 who is so f***ing streaky he could carry the whole team for a month at times), 3 good infield bats (plus 2 who have shown they can be very solid) and 2 good catcher bats. I'm of the opinion that the DH spot is best used to give players partial rest days, and I don't think you're signing any of the decent available bats to come in to a bench role.

 

Also, this team is really, really good at hitting as constructed already.

 

I'm sort of here. If we could add Schwarber its not like I would be mad. It's just not a must for me.

[Spanky99]

I'm surprised connorpee's wet blanket is lukewarm on this. Chapman probably helps the team as much as Freeman does. He might be a half win worse in a vacuum, but he actually plays the team's biggest position of need, doesn't force messy solutions like Vlad to 3B, and won't cost 180M. And he's really, really fun to watch.

 

Ftfy

[Sammy225]

I know people think we should have an all star at every position but that is not realistic. Chapman is in my eyes the perfect fit for us he will likely bat 5th or 6th in the lineup with an up tick in Walk rate and you would assume the numbers get better moving from Oakland to Toronto, we have a ground ball heavy rotation, he will take pressure off Bo who struggled with defense at times last year, he is making less then 10mil this year which leaves resources open. Ya he has a big red flag but also is only 29 and was hampered by that torn labrum in 2020 playing in the worst hitters ballpark in the league.

 

Worst case you have a gold glove defender that will hit you 30HRs with a 3.5-4War and the reward he goes back to his 2019 self who was an MVP caliber player.

 

Ya JRam would of been nice but unless your prepared to get rid of Moreno+++++ then it is not going to happen. Freeman would of been nice but then your likely risking not being able to sign both Vlad and Bo with the money you will have to pay him.

 

I like it.

[connorp]

I guess Ketel would make the whole thing beautiful lol. I don’t know why AZ would keep him

[RustyTrombone]

Where?

 

We have 3 good OF bats (plus 1 who is so f***ing streaky he could carry the whole team for a month at times), 3 good infield bats (plus 2 who have shown they can be very solid) and 2 good catcher bats. I'm of the opinion that the DH spot is best used to give players partial rest days, and I don't think you're signing any of the decent available bats to come in to a bench role.

 

Also, this team is really, really good at hitting as constructed already.

 

A lefty who can come off the bench or dh aka Dickerson, Joc. Maybe somehow clear some room and get conforto.

 

Maybe I'm placing too much importance on handedness balance.

[jerb]

 

Ethan Diamandas

@EthanDiamandas

 

A lot is made of Chapman’s defence (rightfully so), but he rips the ball incredibly hard.

 

From 2018-2020

- At least top 4% in average exit velo

- at least top 5% in max exit velo

- hard-hit % at 47.8, 49, 51.7, respectively

 

2021 wasn’t as elite, but the pop is there. #BlueJays

[Deadpool]

Hoping Pearson is still here, ok with sending Kirk or Groshan.

 

I don't really see Kirk or Groshans being moved for Chapman. A's need to clear money + are big "quantity over quality" guys. Also, Kirk is on the roster which has already been said is not being touched in this trade.

 

I feel that Groshans + Smith would be a bit of an overpay in the context of this trade.

[L54]

Makes way more sense than Freeman or Schwarber. Will be interesting if Jays can help him curb the K’s. If not he’s still a good bet for three wins at third which is a massive upgrade

[Slade]

I still think we need that lefty bat and now options are dwindling.

[L54]

Kevin Smith, Otto Lopez and Brett Lawrie

[Deadpool]

A lefty who can come off the bench or dh aka Dickerson, Joc. Maybe somehow clear some room and get conforto.

 

Maybe I'm placing too much importance on handedness balance.

 

Dickerson is kinda trash (but if he'd sign as a cheap bench piece, I wouldn't hate the idea), and I can't imagine Joc would come here to be a 4th OF - he's likely looking for a starter role to try and rebuild his value, ditto Conforto.

[rookiefuzz]

I'm surprised people seem lukewarm on this. Chapman probably helps the team as much as Freeman does. He might be a half win worse in a vacuum, but he actually plays the team's biggest position of need, doesn't force messy solutions like Vlad to 3B, and won't cost 180M. And he's really, really fun to watch.

 

This is an ideal situation IMO. Second only to possibly JRAM

[Deadpool]

Kevin Smith, Otto Lopez and Brett Lawrie

 

I was thinking of making a Lawrie joke earlier, but couldn't land on one. Kudos for grabbing it

[Brownie19]

Last year was Chapman's first full year returning from hip surgery...how much hope is there that the hips is now repaired and stronger and the bat will improve?