Around Baseball 2022

[Ehjays]

Carlos Rodón Seeking Seven-Year Deal

By Darragh McDonald and Steve Adams | December 9, 2022 at 11:58am CDT

 

The Yankees are one of many teams known to be interested in lefty Carlos Rodón, but Jon Heyman of The New York Post reports that they would prefer to limit him to a four- or five-year deal. That might be a problem, since Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reports that Rodón is looking for at least seven years. Reporter Marino Pepén says the Red Sox are interested, though the extent of interest isn’t clear.

 

Just a few days ago, it had been reported that Rodón was seeking a six-year deal, but there may be good reasons why he’s upped his ask. The free-agent market has been broadly aggressive, with many of the top free agents going well beyond expectations in terms of contract length.

 

In recent offseasons, teams have generally cut off guarantees to position players in their age-37 seasons, but Aaron Judge got a nine-year deal taking him through age-39. Trea Turner and Xander Bogaerts each landed 11-year deals that run into their 40s. Brandon Nimmo will be paid through age 38 with the Mets. Pitchers, meanwhile, have struggled to land guarantees beyond their age-36 season (with older veterans like Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander standing as exceptions for obvious reasons), but Jacob deGrom signed through age 39 in Texas. The length of all those deals is generally rooted in lowering the luxury-tax hit, though, and Rodon’s ostensibly new goal of seven-plus years could be a matter of falling in line with that broader market trend.

 

DeGrom and Rodón are somewhat analogous, though not the exact same. Both are extremely talented pitchers with some injury concerns in recent years. DeGrom is arguably the best pitcher alive when healthy but missed over an entire year from mid-2021 to mid-2022 due to forearm and scapula injuries.

 

Rodón is much younger, as he will turn 30 years old tomorrow. Injuries limited him to just over 40 combined innings in 2019 and 2020 and the concern was high enough that the White Sox actually non-tendered him after that. There were enough red flags that he had to settle for a one-year, $3MM deal to return to the Sox. He’s been on a straight upward trajectory since.

 

Rodón tossed 132 2/3 innings in 2021 with a 2.37 ERA and excellent 34.6% strikeout rate. He seemed to run out of gas down the stretch, leaving some lingering health concerns as he returned to free agency. He didn’t get a qualifying offer and had to “settle” for a two-year, $44MM deal with the Giants, though one that gave him a chance to opt-out after the first campaign. He pushed further away from the injury worries by making 31 starts and logging 178 frames with a 2.88 ERA and 33.4% strikeout rate. He made the easy decision to opt out and also reject a qualifying offer from the Giants.

 

The fact that Rodón is now reasonably seeking a seven-year deal is nothing short of remarkable, given where he was just two years ago. It’s also not surprising that he’s looking to strike while the iron is hot, given the ups and downs he’s had in his career. Still, contracts of this length for free agent pitchers are quite rare. Gerrit Cole got nine years but with a much stronger record of health than Rodón. Prior to that deal, he had made at least 19 starts for seven straight seasons and at least 32 in the previous three. Kenta Maeda got eight years when coming over from Japan, but that was a unique situation. Maeda was going into his age-28 season but had some health concerns, leading the Dodgers to give him a modest $25MM guarantee spread out over eight years but with $10MM in incentives available each year that Maeda could trigger by staying healthy.

 

There are a handful of aces that have gotten to seven years, including Max Scherzer, David Price, Stephen Strasburg, CC Sabathia and Masahiro Tanaka, the latter of whom was only 25 at the time and is hardly a similar situation. Strasburg had dealt with some injuries but was coming off a World Series MVP performance that pushed his bidding up. The others in that group, similar to Cole, had fairly solid records of health and durability. As great as Rodón has been for the past two seasons, any seven-year deal would generally be rarefied air for a pitcher.

 

Now, with this offseason’s trend of utilizing longer contracts to tamp down AAV (and, thusly, luxury-tax penalties), it seems more plausible than before that Rodón might indeed command seven-plus years. Initial reports indicated that he was seeking six years with a $30MM+ annual salary. If Rodón and agent Scott Boras are fixated more on the contract’s total than on its length, then spreading that, say, $175-200MM goal out over a period of seven, eight or even nine years would greatly reduce the potential luxury penalties for whichever team signs him. That’s more a concern if he signs with a major-market club that regularly finds itself in luxury peril (e.g. Yankees, Red Sox) than if he were to sign with one of his reported suitors that has never held much of an appetite for the luxury tax (e.g. Twins, Orioles).

 

The Yankees are clearly willing to spend, as they just gave Judge a record-breaking $360MM guarantee. How much they want to continue spending, however, is an open question. Roster Resource currently pegs the club’s payroll for next season at $250MM with a competitive balance tax figure of $266MM. That already places them beyond last year’s Opening Day payroll of $246MM, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, and beyond the second tier of luxury tax penalization. The tiers begin at $233MM next year and go up in $20MM increments to $293MM. Adding $25-30MM for Rodón would push them near or above that top penalty threshold.

 

The club doesn’t strictly need an elite starter like Rodón, but he would certainly be an upgrade for any rotation in the game. The Yanks currently have Cole, Luis Severino, Nestor Cortes and Frankie Montas for four spots with solid options for the last spot including Domingo Germán and Clarke Schmidt. That’s a solid group, but Montas and Severino both have some recent injuries that make them question marks going into next season, so there would be plenty of sense in adding another arm and pushing some guys down the depth chart. The question will be whether the Yanks would prefer paying the price for an ace like Rodón as opposed to turning to mid-rotation options like Chris Bassitt or Sean Manaea.

 

If Rodón indeed is open to seven or more years in order to obtain the contract total he’s eyeing, that would be an interesting situation for the Yankees to ponder. They already have expensive contracts for Cole and Judge on the books for the next six and nine years, respectively. Giancarlo Stanton has five years left with a $25MM club option for 2028 with a $10MM option. Adding a lengthy deal for Rodón would likely mean their 2028 payroll would already be well beyond $100MM.

 

The Red Sox, on the other hand, have plenty of space before thinking about the tax. Roster Resource currently has their payroll at $172MM and their CBT figure at $192MM. That leaves them about $40MM away from the lowest threshold, meaning they could add Rodón with room to spare. There would be plenty of sense in adding to their rotation given all the question marks they have there. Nick Pivetta is probably the only solid member of their group right now, as Chris Sale and James Paxton have hardly pitched in the past three years. Brayan Bello and Garrett Whitlock are penciled into two spots, though they are young and only have 20 MLB starts between them. They also have other areas worth addressing on the roster, such as catcher and figuring out how to deal with the departure of Bogaerts from their infield. Long-term, they have Story and Masataka Yoshida locked in for the next five seasons but nothing guaranteed for 2028.

[John_Havok]

The Big Hurt was special. We'll see if Judge is also special.

 

Just a quick comparison of each players age 24-30 seasons:

 

Thomas 4561 PAs , 247 HRs .321/.441/.592/1.033 OPS+ 173

Judge 3161 PAs, 220 HRs, .284/.394/.583/.977 OPS+ 163

 

Judge is close, who knows what might have been without a COVID season. Their real differences are in K rate. Judge has K'd at 29%, Thomas only K'd at 11% walk rates are 14.9 for Judge and was 17.7 for Thomas.

[John_Havok]

Carlos Rodón Seeking Seven-Year Deal

By Darragh McDonald and Steve Adams | December 9, 2022 at 11:58am CDT

 

The Yankees are one of many teams known to be interested in lefty Carlos Rodón, but Jon Heyman of The New York Post reports that they would prefer to limit him to a four- or five-year deal. That might be a problem, since Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reports that Rodón is looking for at least seven years. Reporter Marino Pepén says the Red Sox are interested, though the extent of interest isn’t clear.

 

 

Dude and his agent are certifiably nuts if they think any team is giving him a fully guaranteed 7 year deal. Absolutely crazy

 

He should be in the 5yr/120 range though.

[connorp]

Dude and his agent are certifiably nuts if they think any team is giving him a fully guaranteed 7 year deal.

 

I think 5 is a given. So likely some team will have to go the 6.

So saying 7 really isn’t nuts. Could very well happen, even if not likely

[Stangstag]

Dude and his agent are certifiably nuts if they think any team is giving him a fully guaranteed 7 year deal. Absolutely crazy

 

He should be in the 5yr/120 range though.

 

Brandon Nimmo just got 8 years. Turner and Bogey 11 years.

 

Who the f*** knows lol

[John_Havok]

Brandon Nimmo just got 8 years. Turner and Bogey 11 years.

 

Who the f*** knows lol

 

Pitchers though... its far less of a risk on a position player.

[John_Havok]

I think 5 is a given. So likely some team will have to go the 6.

So saying 7 really isn’t nuts. Could very well happen, even if not likely

 

I dunno, i just dont think there are any teams out there willing to hand out Strasburg or David Price money anymore when a guy is 30 years old. They've all seen how that movie ends.

 

 

I could see a 5 years plus option years, but not 7 guaranteed

[glory]

The team that gives him 7 years will get him but I don’t think any team will. Then again teams nowadays seem fine with giving more years and having dead money at the end of contracts if it lowers the AAV and lessens the CBT hit, so maybe he will get 7 at a lower AAV. I think there’s enough demand for him that he will get at least 6.

[Jonn]

I love Rodon. But 7 years to a pitcher especially him who has had some injury concerns. I just don’t think we can get in on that market.

[connorp]

I dunno, i just dont think there are any teams out there willing to hand out Strasburg or David Price money anymore when a guy is 30 years old. They've all seen how that movie ends.

 

 

I could see a 5 years plus option years, but not 7 guaranteed

 

When has any 10 year ended well. Maybe a couple times idk but we all know how they likely end

[Deadpool]

It would be pretty risky for the team to place all of their eggs in the Barger basket. There is a good possibility he will struggle greatly to begin him major league career both at the plate and in the field. I don't that aside from Barger that any of those players are very suited to play the left side of the infield (although with how poorly Bichette fielded in 2022 it's possible all of the previously mentioned players might not be any worse).

 

Lopez has played a fair bit of SS in the MiLB, definitely a utility guy, but played each of 2B/SS/CF a fair bit. Barger has played more SS than any other position. Obviously Biggio and Merrifield only play SS if half the team is in traction, but between those 4 guys Espinal isn't CRITICAL to keep around.

 

They all (including Espinal) project to be about league average in wRC+ (give or take 10%) with Barger being the highest at 113 (Merrifield at 98 is the lowest, which surprised me...).

 

We're a bit spoiled for choice w/r/t utility guys at the moment, so it wouldn't shock me to see any of those 5 moved (I guess it'd be pretty shocking to see Barger move at this point in his career arc...)

[John_Havok]

When has any 10 year ended well. Maybe a couple times idk but we all know how they likely end

 

Completely, the last few seasons are pretty much always a write off, and the team hopes they got enough value in the good years to outweigh it. Votto's has been pretty good. 8 really good years, then last year a pretty big step back. But again, position player.

 

A pitcher could provide absolutely nothing with one injury

[connorp]

Completely, the last few seasons are pretty much always a write off, and the team hopes they got enough value in the good years to outweigh it. Votto's has been pretty good. 8 really good years, then last year a pretty big step back. But again, position player.

 

A pitcher could provide absolutely nothing with one injury

 

Taking out of ass, but there would be more injury risk with pitcher, but I feel like they probably age better than hitters idk. Like they can lose velo and if they have good secondary stuff, they can ride with that. Like hitters they lose bat speed, no good.. also they slow up in the field

[Ehjays]

Angels Pursued Willson Contreras Prior To Cardinals Deal

By Darragh McDonald | December 9, 2022 at 2:03pm CDT

 

In recent days, it was reported that the Cardinals and Astros had each given multi-year offers to catcher Willson Contreras, with the Cardinals eventually winning the bidding by giving him five-year, $87.5MM deal. However, there was one other team apparently at the table, as Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports that the Angels were one of the teams outbid by the Cards.

 

The Angels have been fairly active so far this offseason, adding to their pitching staff by signing Tyler Anderson for their rotation and Carlos Estévez for their bullpen, while adding Gio Urshela to their infield and Hunter Renfroe to their outfield. It seems they are still hoping to make further moves, but the fact that they pursued a catcher like Contreras is at least mildly surprising since that doesn’t stand out as the club’s most obvious weak spot.

 

Max Stassi had a nice breakout for the Halos over 2020 and 2021, getting into 118 games and hitting .250/.333/.452 for a wRC+ of 113, indicating he was 13% better than league average. When combined with his strong glovework, he produced 3.6 wins above replacement over that time, according to FanGraphs. With Stassi set to reach free agency after 2022, the club signed him to an extension that went through 2024 with an club option for 2025. Unfortunately, he had a dismal campaign in 2022, hitting just .180/.267/.303. He probably deserved better than that, however, as his .239 batting average on balls in play was below his .276 career mark and well below his .325 from 2021. With another two guaranteed seasons on his deal, he’s sure to be in the mix somehow with a chance to bounce back.

 

Then there’s also Logan O’Hoppe, who came over from the Phillies in the deadline deal that sent Brandon Marsh to Philadelphia. Between the two clubs, he annihilated Double-A pitching last year, leading to a batting line of .283/.416/.544 and a wRC+ of 159. He skipped Triple-A to get a five-game cup of coffee in the big leagues as the season was winding down.

 

Neither Stassi or O’Hoppe are a sure thing, but it would have been reasonable enough to go into the season with the two of them each jockeying for playing time and letting it get sorted as the season went along. However, it seems the club has at least some openness to upgrade, based on their pursuit of Contreras. It’s possible they want to give O’Hoppe more time in the minors or maybe that they would have pursued trades with Stassi if they landed Contreras.

 

General manager Perry Minasian recently told members of the media that the club could push pay the competitive balance tax in 2023 with no ownership mandate against it. Roster Resource currently pegs their 2023 payroll at $198MM with a CBT figure of $213MM. The first threshold of the luxury tax will be $233MM next year, giving the Angels about $20MM to work with before they have to think about whether they are willing to cross the line or not.

 

Contreras ended up signing a five-year, $87.5MM deal, with comes to an average annual value of $17.5MM. We don’t know exactly how much the Angels were willing to spend on Contreras, but something in this vicinity would have gotten them close to luxury tax territory. Assuming the Angels still have that money to spend on other players, it’s a good sign for Angel fans. The club could look for another backstop but have also been connected to shortstops and bullpen help. Since Contreras was clearly on a different tier to the other available free agent backstops, it’s possible that the Angels were willing to make an exception for him and won’t necessarily circle down to the other options. However, if they are interested in pursuing help behind the plate, the free agent market has options like Christian Vázquez and Gary Sánchez. The trade market is highlighted by Oakland’s Sean Murphy and Toronto’s Danny Jansen, though the asking prices on from both the A’s and the Jays are reportedly quite high.

[Ehjays]

[L54]

That’s awesome. All of those players deserve some compensation for being some of the most valuable pieces in the game.

 

How do the award the dollar figure does anyone remember?

[Krylian]

Pitchers though... its far less of a risk on a position player.

 

Berrios got 7 years. I'd be surprised if Rodon doesn't get 7 himself.

[Ehjays]

I dont think I ever saw how they calculate it, I remember during negotiations the players fought for these arb bonus's but never saw the calculations.

[Ehjays]

[Jays24]

 

If this happens then I'm going to be absolutely pissed as a Jays fan. These f***ers went from possibly losing Judge to getting him back AND adding Correa.

[Brownie19]

If this happens then I'm going to be absolutely pissed as a Jays fan. These f***ers went from possibly losing Judge to getting him back AND adding Correa.

 

I'd suggest you get used to it if you're going to remain a Jays fan.

[Terminator]

If this happens then I'm going to be absolutely pissed as a Jays fan. These f***ers went from possibly losing Judge to getting him back AND adding Correa.

 

Lol how long have you been following baseball exactly? This is what the Yankees do.

[Jays24]

Lol how long have you been following baseball exactly? This is what the Yankees do.

 

The old Yankees sure but I hoped Hal kept being more of a money conscience owner lol

[Eat My Shatkins]

Watch the Yankees reel in Rodon too lol

 

Can't let the Mets out spend them

[Stangstag]

Berrios got 7 years. I'd be surprised if Rodon doesn't get 7 himself.

 

Berrios was the poster boy for durable/reliable mid-rotation workhorse with upside.

 

Rodon is not that. But he’ll probably get at least 6 years in this market

[Stangstag]

 

Correa to the Yankees is such a good fit, im still uncertain why it didn’t happen last year.

[Ehjays]

The old Yankees sure but I hoped Hal kept being more of a money conscience owner lol

 

Nope, these are big dollar teams, they will spend according to the market. I actually wouldn't be surprised if Boston swooped in and took Correa. Im sure their fans are more pissed than Blue Jays fans are after losing their SS.

 

As a Jays fan, If I tell you Im gonna renovate your kitchen , dont judge my work when I have everything ripped out. Evaluate my job when I say its completed. Your new cabinetry is in and brand new shiny kitchen sink. Thats when you judge. Right now you are giving feedback on the FO work when everything is torn out. Give them time to put the sink in, If its not shiny, then you can bitch.

[Ehjays]

 

Correa to the Yankees in 3...2...

[Ehjays]

[Ehjays]

What wouldn't surprise me is if the Yankees updated their Off-season plan:

 

Sign Carlos Rodon

Sign Carlos Correa

Trade Anthony Volpe for Bryan Reynolds