Around Baseball 2022

[Stangstag]

Zaidi’s fence sitting has been pretty damn good so far. They won 107 games and the division two years ago. Was a bit fluky and not sustainable but it was impressive nonetheless.

 

I agree that they should def be trying to add a star player in FA though. With Zaidi’s ability to add via dumpster diving, an anchor to the lineup like Correa would be a really good match.

 

A bit fluky???

 

How many wins did they have the previous and following years??

 

2021 was extremely lucky for them. Hoping for perfect health and for all your declining overpaid vets to have bounceback seasons is not a model for success.

[Jimcanuck]

What’s hard to decipher there? Didn’t you pass some kind of complex exam?

When if not a playoff team, why not use up an extra $20-30 million or something to the payroll if it can win you more games and put a better product on the field

 

MLB teams are businesses (except for the Mets, which is Cohen's little plaything). Every business makes decisions to max out the bottom line. So if Team X doesn't sign a FA for $20-30M AAV, it's because its a bad business move.

[connorp]

Aren’t the Giants every other year, or that’s just an urban myth? They’ll be good somehow if so

[connorp]

MLB teams are businesses (except for the Mets, which is Cohen's little plaything). Every business makes decisions to max out the bottom line. So if Team X doesn't sign a FA for $20-30M AAV, it's because its a bad business move.

 

No mate. That’s what I was explaining. You can put them into boxes but there’s different ways teams are run

More than just Cohen are ok operating in the “red”.. which it seems is very complex with sports teams

[connorp]

You can almost think of a startup approach, like Uber or whatever that set out losing with the hope of building a brand that’s eventually profitable. It’s a legit business strategy

 

Especially with these these tv deals. Whoever has a contact coming up in the next 5 years is licking their lips

[Laika]

Do the Giants have anything they’d give us for Jansen?

 

Not really

 

Camilo Doval has 5 years of control so doubt they trade their closer here

They have some okay platoon OFers but not worth as much as Jansen

 

Alex Cobb is good and under control for $9M this year and $10M next ($2M buyout) I wonder if Toronto could get Cobb and a kicker

[connorp]

I’d ship Danny’s ass out for Cobb. I don’t think they’ve totally given up on Bart. Maybe after this year. So no go for now

[Jimcanuck]

No mate. That’s what I was explaining. You can put them into boxes but there’s different ways teams are run

More than just Cohen are ok operating in the “red”.. which it seems is very complex with sports teams

 

dude i just told you theses are businesses with people who have the sole job, everyday, to look after its financial interests

 

are you saying they are doing it wrong and you know the right way

[Terminator]

A bit fluky???

 

How many wins did they have the previous and following years??

 

2021 was extremely lucky for them. Hoping for perfect health and for all your declining overpaid vets to have bounceback seasons is not a model for success.

 

Yeah like I said it was fluky but 107 wins isn’t like winning the division with 88 wins and to do it with that crew was impressive. I was even impressed with them last year and the year prior to 107 wins. The roster is ass but their FO is good at squeezing out maximum value out of the guys they do have. I agree with others though that it’s time to step things up a notch.

[connorp]

dude i just told you theses are businesses with people who have the sole job, everyday, to look after its financial interests

 

are you saying they are doing it wrong and you know the right way

 

Wtf does that have to do with anything I said? Of course they have people looking out for the financial interest of the team. There’s someone doing that for the Mets and Pit. Yet they operate pretty differently.

 

Pretty basic s*** Jim. Either you can pour money into a business even if it puts you at a loss, hoping for growth.. or you can operate according to your revenue and keep the focus on making a profit and going from there

[Brownie19]

There’s not really much motivation at all to tank in mlb. #12 probably has probably gotten similar historical value to #5.

Why put a terrible team on the field and risk losing more casuals and having to try to win them back later on.

Again, s***** teams also are going to take a hit in franchise value. Never really got the PIT/FL model other than basically the owner was running it purely to put money in their pocket

 

If the team has an annual average salary budget of $150M, this is a viable model/option for teams.

 

Years 1 thru 3 - team is s***, sell off the vets to rebuild the farm system. Spend $80M annually (buying some rebound candidates you can sell at the trade deadline) - save $210M over the 3 years.

Years 4 & 5 - young team is developing and starting to win, the window is opening, so you add a couple more veterans. Spend $115M annually - save another $70M over the 2 years.

Years 6 thru 10 - firming in the window for winning - time to lock up key players & add those missing FA pieces. Now - instead of having a $150M payroll ceiling, you now use the savings you collected in the previous 5 years and run a $220M budget.

 

This seems to be the model the Astros and Cubs used over the past 10-15 years. It may not always be about 'tanking' and more about when you spend the money you've allocated to the business.

[connorp]

If the team has an annual average salary budget of $150M, this is a viable model/option for teams.

 

Years 1 thru 3 - team is s***, sell off the vets to rebuild the farm system. Spend $80M annually (buying some rebound candidates you can sell at the trade deadline) - save $210M over the 3 years.

Years 4 & 5 - young team is developing and starting to win, the window is opening, so you add a couple more veterans. Spend $115M annually - save another $70M over the 2 years.

Years 6 thru 10 - firming in the window for winning - time to lock up key players & add those missing FA pieces. Now - instead of having a $150M payroll ceiling, you now use the savings you collected in the previous 5 years and run a $220M budget.

 

This seems to be the model the Astros and Cubs used over the past 10-15 years. It may not always be about 'tanking' and more about when you spend the money you've allocated to the business.

 

Yeah I’m not really trying to rank what the best way is. I mean obviously the Mets and Pit are examples of different ends of the spectrum and there’s a lot in the middle. I can just understand the different approaches. There’s not one way to do it, and I think you see that across mlb

[connorp]

As I’ve said, no use crying about how Rogers wants to do things.

 

As it is, I don’t want to see any Correa contract because I know years 6-10 that dead money will be crippling. A different ownership mindset and it starts to make sense. Correa, Rodon, keep Teo, sign KK to sure up D, sign Montero someone else.. whatever you get for Danny too and now you got a pretty f***ing exciting team and some backend risk for sure but nothing debilitating if you know ownership is committed.

 

That’s not happening but I hate when people mock teams for going for it. If I’m a billionaire, I would. That said, of course there’s some ways that are smarter to go about it than others. But in the case of SD, I don’t see the big downside. For the Mets, I don’t think Cohen is going to change his ways either

[Jimcanuck]

Wtf does that have to do with anything I said?

 

See below.

 

When if not a playoff team, why not use up an extra $20-30 million or something to the payroll if it can win you more games and put a better product on the field

 

A simpleton statement.

[connorp]

See below.

 

 

 

A simpleton statement.

 

You’re the simpleton, mate. Call up Spanky, grab a case of Bud and have at it.

 

Some may choose to keep the $20m, some may decide to buy some players to put a better product on the field, some might put it into development… I don’t begrudge any of the ways

[BTS]

You’re the simpleton, mate. Call up Spanky, grab a case of Bud and have at it.

 

Some may choose to keep the $20m, some may decide to buy some players to put a better product on the field, some might put it into development… I don’t begrudge any of the ways

 

Your argument, across multiple threads over the last couple of days seems to boil down to: all teams are run by smart people, and they have good reasons for operating the way they do, so we shouldn't say that any team has worse process than any other.

[Jimcanuck]

Your argument, across multiple threads over the last couple of days seems to boil down to: all teams are run by smart people, and they have good reasons for operating the way they do, so we shouldn't say that any team has worse process than any other.

 

I apologize to connor then, for responding to a single post not knowing the context of the last few days.

[connorp]

Your argument, across multiple threads over the last couple of days seems to boil down to: all teams are run by smart people, and they have good reasons for operating the way they do, so we shouldn't say that any team has worse process than any other.

 

Not a completely unfair summary…but not so black-and-white I guess..as I said, I didn’t mean to “rank” anything and of course I think some teams operate better than others.. I can just respect different approaches. In general you just have to Look at deals in a different lens. Again, like I think a 10 year Correa deal isn’t something Jays should do, but I’d applaud another team for it if they know what they’re getting into

[connorp]

I apologize to connor then, for responding to a single post not knowing the context of the last few days.

 

If you want to apologize for being a dumbass, I’ll happily accept. We all have our faults

[Terminator]

I apologize to connor then, for responding to a single post not knowing the context of the last few days.

 

Wow Jim is handing out apologies? You probably owe me hundreds Jim. I'll take one big blanket apology but can I get it in video format? I think that would go a long way toward righting some of the many wrongs you've done over the years.

[Jimcanuck]

Wow Jim is handing out apologies? You probably owe me hundreds Jim. I'll take one big blanket apology but can I get it in video format? I think that would go a long way toward righting some of the many wrongs you've done over the years.

 

I apologize for being too harsh pointing out your many flaws.

[BTS]

I apologize for being too harsh pointing out your many flaws.

 

Very brave, throwing backhanded apologies at the sheriff.

[Terminator]

Very brave, throwing backhanded apologies at the sheriff.

 

Could be worse I thought he was going to Rick Roll me

[connorp]

Sticking to the $10/WAR value, Correa deal probably wouldn’t look bad. Like 11/330?

I mean if he gives you 25 WAR in 6 years, then rides out the contract as an average, then even a below average regular, the value is almost right. You get a “veteran presence” at the back end and all that..

 

So it’s really about what you think you have in the next 5-6 years

[xposbrad]

Sticking to the $10/WAR value, Correa deal probably wouldn’t look bad. Like 11/330?

I mean if he gives you 25 WAR in 6 years, then rides out the contract as an average, then even a below average regular, the value is almost right. You get a “veteran presence” at the back end and all that..

 

So it’s really about what you think you have in the next 5-6 years

 

I think most of these teams are banking on persistent medium/high inflation still (as long as we keep these current governments they are probably right) and that 10m/war will probably be 13m/war in 3-4 years and so forth.

[Laika]

Sticking to the $10/WAR value, Correa deal probably wouldn’t look bad. Like 11/330?

I mean if he gives you 25 WAR in 6 years, then rides out the contract as an average, then even a below average regular, the value is almost right. You get a “veteran presence” at the back end and all that..

 

So it’s really about what you think you have in the next 5-6 years

 

Most of these long term contracts these days are probably thought of as just spreading out the $$

 

Like the Phillies don't think Trea Turner is going to be worth anything in years 9, 10, 11.

 

I bet in their heads it's an 8 year $37.5M AAV deal, with some money deferred...

[L54]

I don’t really care how the Mets or Padres operate. The real question is does spending aggressively in free agency end up in World Series championships? History tells us no which makes it an inefficient way of building a team.

 

Most of the World Series winners over the last decade had a home grown nucleus that was supplemented with free agents or trades

 

Astros- yes

Braves- yes

Dodgers- sort of

Nationals- yes

Red Sox - yes

Astros- yes

Cubs- yes

Royals- yes

Giants- yes

Red Sox- don’t remember

[Laika]

I don’t really care how the Mets or Padres operate. The real question is does spending aggressively in free agency end up in World Series championships? History tells us no which makes it an inefficient way of building a team.

 

Most of the World Series winners over the last decade had a home grown nucleus that was supplemented with free agents or trades

 

Astros- yes

Braves- yes

Dodgers- sort of

Nationals- yes

Red Sox - yes

Astros- yes

Cubs- yes

Royals- yes

Giants- yes

Red Sox- don’t remember

 

Baseball teams are just so big. Too many contributors to be buying most of them in free agency.

[Jimcanuck]

I think most of these teams are banking on persistent medium/high inflation still (as long as we keep these current governments they are probably right) and that 10m/war will probably be 13m/war in 3-4 years and so forth.

 

As long as Putin keeps power and the Ukraine war drags out, yes, probably

[L54]

Baseball teams are just so big. Too many contributors to be buying most of them in free agency.

 

100%. You need your arb and pre arb guys to be contributing at roughly the same rate as the guys who you’re paying 20-30M