Jays 2021/22 General Off-Season Discussion

[Brownie19]

Those are exceptions to the rule. If you're a betting man, as a general rule, the math says that a bad body is a significant detriment. Could Kirk become a star? Sure. But it will be tougher for him to become one (and stay healthy) if his physical stature remains similar.

 

No, no, no - if you name the 8 really fat guy (he forgot John Kruk and both Fielders), then that's justification that every fat guy can succeed!

[max silver]

Those are exceptions to the rule. If you're a betting man, as a general rule, the math says that a bad body is a significant detriment. Could Kirk become a star? Sure. But it will be tougher for him to become one (and stay healthy) if his physical stature remains similar.

 

It's been reported that Kirk intends to once again work with the Jays strength and conditioning department this offseason to improve his physique. He reportedly lost a good chunk of weight last offseason so hopefully he can do the same again this winter.

[L54]

When people are using Kirk in hypothetical trades I think they understand you need to give up value to get value.

 

Of all the catchers Kirk presently has the most value. He projects as one of the best hitting catchers in the game and has proven he can at minimum handle the position.

 

They just so happen to have stud defender Danny Jansen and super prospect Moreno waiting in the wings which makes Kirk expendable.

 

Kind of like how the Marlins have so much good young pitching they don’t know what to do with it. Using the surplus to address other holes makes sense.

[The_DH]

On a different note: anyone know what happened to Gregory Polanco - he was with Buffalo and doing okay. I was kind of hoping he might turn into something here.

[wilko]

On a different note: anyone know what happened to Gregory Polanco - he was with Buffalo and doing okay. I was kind of hoping he might turn into something here.

 

Played great with Buffalo last year. I'm sure they will give him a look this year.

[Dick_Pole]

If the White Sox had any inkling that Rodon was worth 1/25 on the market, they would have tendered him. He would have either refused or accepted. Then they could trade him in the latter scenario because his contract has value. Either they are comically wrong or they know more than people on an opposing team's message board do. My bet is the latter. A signing of that ilk that ends up being wasted on the IL is $25 million that could have been spent elsewhere on a team where 2-3 WAR variance could be the difference between World Series appearance and just missing out on the playoffs. Like it was this year. 1/18 or less is at least the going rate for the risk involved.

[Spanky99]

On a different note: anyone know what happened to Gregory Polanco - he was with Buffalo and doing okay. I was kind of hoping he might turn into something here.

 

He elected FA, not a Jay anymore.

[Key22]

No, no, no - if you name the 8 really fat guy (he forgot John Kruk and both Fielders), then that's justification that every fat guy can succeed!

 

The fatty cream rises to the top though. So there may be 500 fatties in the minors and John Kruk rose to make the majors - umm so has Kirk. He is the one fatty out of the hundreds in the minors to make it and succeed at an age way below where he should be. He may break down at 30 but then he's not 30. He could have good value for 8 years. I just wouldn't be in a hurry to dump him unless you are getting some serious talent back. I would not be basing stuff on body type - let's count the thousands of players who are supreme athletes built like a brick shithouse had a cup of coffee in the majors and were never seen again (Ahem Brett Lawrie) - the list is very very long of physical specimens who stunk. Kirk can hit - let him waddle around in left field or just make him a DH.

[Key22]

When people are using Kirk in hypothetical trades I think they understand you need to give up value to get value.

 

Of all the catchers Kirk presently has the most value. He projects as one of the best hitting catchers in the game and has proven he can at minimum handle the position.

 

They just so happen to have stud defender Danny Jansen and super prospect Moreno waiting in the wings which makes Kirk expendable.

 

Kind of like how the Marlins have so much good young pitching they don’t know what to do with it. Using the surplus to address other holes makes sense.

 

Trade a strength to address a weakness - if you can get a young controllable top of the rotation starter for Kirk - then you do it. But you don't trade him for some #5 dime-a-dozen talent.

 

You can find a place for Kirk if the offers aren't good enough.

[L54]

Trade a strength to address a weakness - if you can get a young controllable top of the rotation starter for Kirk - then you do it. But you don't trade him for some #5 dime-a-dozen talent.

 

You can find a place for Kirk if the offers aren't good enough.

 

I don’t think many people are wanting to trade him for Wade Miley

[max silver]

I don’t think many people are wanting to trade him for Wade Miley

 

Except maybe Grant77 who wants to trade Kirk for Brian Anderson and Anthony Bass.

[THANOS]

Except maybe Grant77 who wants to trade Kirk for Brian Anderson and Anthony Bass.

 

Yeah, that was just dumb. Literally a trade just to make a trade, and we'd be losing on value short term and definitely long term.

[The Cats Ass]

If the White Sox had any inkling that Rodon was worth 1/25 on the market, they would have tendered him. He would have either refused or accepted. Then they could trade him in the latter scenario because his contract has value. Either they are comically wrong or they know more than people on an opposing team's message board do. My bet is the latter. A signing of that ilk that ends up being wasted on the IL is $25 million that could have been spent elsewhere on a team where 2-3 WAR variance could be the difference between World Series appearance and just missing out on the playoffs. Like it was this year. 1/18 or less is at least the going rate for the risk involved.

 

Rodon is such a risky 1 year sign, surgery might be right around the corner for him and the Whitesox may know. Only way I'm giving him a 1 year high aav deal is if there's an option attached.

 

Something like 1Y/23M with a team option for 2023 @ 2M. The team option becomes a player option if he pitches 120 innings.

[Grant77]

Except maybe Grant77 who wants to trade Kirk for Brian Anderson and Anthony Bass.

 

That wasn't even the trade and it was just a fun exercise in copying Sportsnet's template.

[glory]

The White Sox not offering the QO is definitely something to watch out for with Rodon. Since he's repped by Boras, he likely would have declined it, so the White Sox didn't even want to risk a 1/18 deal on the off chance that he accepted. That's a huge red flag. If the Sox were shedding payroll or rebuilding/tanking, then it would have made more sense, but they just made the playoffs and look to be on the verge of a decent sized run. I'd double and triple check Rodon's medicals before even offering him anything. He's probably a real possibility given that teams are likely to be scared off a bit by his injury history, so his price may fall, but you don't want a more expensive Kirby Yates situation next year.

 

I think Kikuchi is a strong possibility.

[max silver]

That wasn't even the trade and it was just a fun exercise in copying Sportsnet's template.

 

My biggest beef with that proposed trade was saddling Kirk with Grichuk, as this ends up throwing away a good amount of value in order to save money. I don't think the Jays need to be giving away assets in trade in order to save cash, as they've shown the ability and willingness in the past to simply pay players to go away if necessary.

[The_DH]

The White Sox not offering the QO is definitely something to watch out for with Rodon. Since he's repped by Boras, he likely would have declined it, so the White Sox didn't even want to risk a 1/18 deal on the off chance that he accepted. That's a huge red flag. If the Sox were shedding payroll or rebuilding/tanking, then it would have made more sense, but they just made the playoffs and look to be on the verge of a decent sized run. I'd double and triple check Rodon's medicals before even offering him anything. He's probably a real possibility given that teams are likely to be scared off a bit by his injury history, so his price may fall, but you don't want a more expensive Kirby Yates situation next year.

 

I think Kikuchi is a strong possibility.

 

We didn't offer a QO for Matz (which I actually disagreed with). I think Rodon is worth a bit more (due to inflation) of the first contract we gave Robbie Ray.

[Grant77]

My biggest beef with that proposed trade was saddling Kirk with Grichuk, as this ends up throwing away a good amount of value in order to save money. I don't think the Jays need to be giving away assets in trade in order to save cash, as they've shown the ability and willingness in the past to simply pay players to go away if necessary.

 

You need to understand that the exercise came with artificial salary constraints and was not entirely realistic. I was in now way suggesting that our only option with Grichuk was to attach prospects to him, but it probably was in that imaginary scenario where you make one big signing and an additional trade.

[Jimcanuck]

We didn't offer a QO for Matz (which I actually disagreed with). I think Rodon is worth a bit more (due to inflation) of the first contract we gave Robbie Ray.

 

Yep, Matz on a 1 year QO contract would look pretty good right now, even if it is a $2M or so overpay. There are still some reasonable SP options available. But the Jays are competing with probably 20 other teams for those options.

[Grant77]

There are several guys out there like 2020 Matz who we can take a chance on for a similar package. Joe Ross comes to mind. There are also more established options like Sean Manaea and Merrill Kelly who we could probably get.

[Jimcanuck]

I don't like Matz's stuff. It's completely reliant on velocity because the fastball doesn't have a good shape. I think you can conjure up a replacement from the scrap heap, which is where we found him to begin with. 18M fixes a lot of holes. That could have bought you 2 years of Wong or Kike last off-season.

 

Seems to be quite a different market this year compared to last. Matz QO or no QO was probably a tough call for the FO. There was always a chance that as the off season plays out, offering the QO would have been better in hindsight.

 

We are looking at guys like Matt Boyd, Kikuchi (on a multi year deal), Lester, Folty on the FA market.

[max silver]

I don't like Matz's stuff. It's completely reliant on velocity because the fastball doesn't have a good shape. I think you can conjure up a replacement from the scrap heap, which is where we found him to begin with. 18M fixes a lot of holes. That could have bought you 2 years of Wong or Kike last off-season.

 

Last offseason was likely a once in a lifetime free agency environment as basically nobody was looking to spend money outside of a handful of teams. The prices from that offseason are in no way indicative of what you can expect to pay for these types of players now.

[AdamGreenwood]

Rodon wasn't given a QO either and I'd much rather have him over Matz

[glory]

Matz wasn't given the QO because he isn't a $18m a year starter. He's more in the $10-12m AAV range and the Jays likely knew he was going to accept the QO for that reason. Rodon is the type of SP you give the QO to. The fact that he didn't get one is the part that teams should be very careful about.

[wilko]

Rodon wasn't given a QO either and I'd much rather have him over Matz

 

Rodon >>> Matz. He's worth the QO.

[Jimcanuck]

Matz wasn't given the QO because he isn't a $18m a year starter. He's more in the $10-12m AAV range and the Jays likely knew he was going to accept the QO for that reason. Rodon is the type of SP you give the QO to. The fact that he didn't get one is the part that teams should be very careful about.

 

Agree Matz is a 10-12M starter on a multi year deal. On a 1 year deal, that is equivalent to approx. $16M given the higher risk the player is taking.

[Jimcanuck]

Rodon >>> Matz. He's worth the QO.

 

Agreed, provided Rodon is healthy. This doesn't have anything to do with the question of whether it would have been better for the Jays to secure Matz' services rather than compete with other teams for what's left in the FA market, or overpay for an SP in a trade.

 

Chisox not qualifying Rodon is a pretty big red flag.

[L54]

If Matz was signed for 18M right now you’re not getting an infielder and another BP arm. Probably sign Ian Kennedy for 3M and call it an offseason

 

Id rather have Dylan Bundy for 5M than Matz for 18M

 

Plus the opportunity to trade for a one of the starters on the market still exists

[Jimcanuck]

If Matz was signed for 18M right now you’re not getting an infielder and another BP arm. Probably sign Ian Kennedy for 3M and call it an offseason

 

Id rather have Dylan Bundy for 5M than Matz for 18M

 

Plus the opportunity to trade for a one of the starters on the market still exists

 

Nah, Bundy would get destroyed in ALE as an SP. He's a reliever, spot starter at this point.

[L54]

Nah, Bundy would get destroyed in ALE as an SP. He's a reliever, spot starter at this point.

 

I’d rather pay him 5M to piggy back Stripling than pay Matz 18M