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Ryu In My House

By Ryu In My House
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Daniel Labude Toronto Blue Jays

Daniel Labude

Jays Centre Contributor
Posted
Posted
Projecting regression for Bo and Vlad from 21 numbers. Is that common with these projections?

 

Projections always tend to be on the low side for most players, due to them not liking 40 HRs or .300 avg which will decrease numbers. They are also broken for a lot of players

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Olerud363 FCL Blue Jays

Olerud363

Old-Timey Member
Posted
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Yes. They have to take the 1st 2 years into account as well as the breakout year.

 

They also are projecting 142 games for almost everyone (125 for the Catchers)

 

So Bo and Vlad lose about 0.6 WAR because of that.

 

Vlad, Semien, Bo, and Springer are all projected at about 4 WAR (Vlad highest at 4.5, Semien 3.7)

 

Ray, Berrios, Manoah, and Ryu are all projected at about 3.5 WAR (Ray highest at 3.7, Matz is at 2.5)

 

There is not a lot of difference between top 4 starters and top 4 position players.

 

So losing 2 of our top 8 players. However they are projected as 3.5ish WAR guys, so you can make up most of the projection by finding a couple of 3 WAR guys.

 

Just glancing at Red Sox/Yankees/Rays it appears they still have more depth then we do

Olerud363 FCL Blue Jays

Olerud363

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted

Some other interesting things... according to Steamer

 

Catchers are all under-rated -- all 4 of Jansen, Kirk, Moreno and McGuire are projected as 2-3 WAR guys.

 

Teoscar and Gurriel are over-rated -- more like 1.5 WAR guys according to Steamer

 

Grichuk is strangely under-rated -- also projected for around 1.5 WAR

Spanky99 GOAT

Spanky99

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
Some other interesting things... according to Steamer

 

Catchers are all under-rated -- all 4 of Jansen, Kirk, Moreno and McGuire are projected as 2-3 WAR guys.

 

Teoscar and Gurriel are over-rated -- more like 1.5 WAR guys according to Steamer

 

Grichuk is strangely under-rated -- also projected for around 1.5 WAR

 

Like I said, Steamer 600 is a rough estimate over a full season, Steamer should have their regular projections up at some point this off season, it's time for Toronto to move a Catcher.

Olerud363 FCL Blue Jays

Olerud363

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
Like I said, Steamer 600 is a rough estimate over a full season, Steamer should have their regular projections up at some point this off season, it's time for Toronto to move a Catcher.

 

Is Otto Lopez missing? Didn't see him or am I blind?

 

Hopefully they can get value for the Catchers even though none have had a full year with good counting stats in the last 2.

Spanky99 GOAT

Spanky99

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
Is Otto Lopez missing? Didn't see him or am I blind?

 

Hopefully they can get value for the Catchers even though none have had a full year with good counting stats in the last 2.

 

Yeah, that's a glaring miss by them... he's on the listing last year, *Oops*. Biggio's projection is rough at 0.8 No way, man.

FantasyNewb College Ball

FantasyNewb

Verified Member
Posted
Posted

 

Can someone with a better idea of projection system tell me how a player like Oneil Cruz is projecting similar to Luis Robert and similar players? Did he play well enough in the minors to make that prediction? A prediction of .272 with 24Hrs, 19 steals, 75 - 85 for RBI and Runs seems bold for a rookie.

Olerud363 FCL Blue Jays

Olerud363

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
Can someone with a better idea of projection system tell me how a player like Oneil Cruz is projecting similar to Luis Robert and similar players? Did he play well enough in the minors to make that prediction? A prediction of .272 with 24Hrs, 19 steals, 75 - 85 for RBI and Runs seems bold for a rookie.

 

He hit something like .300 .370 .590 in 70 games. One weird thing was that he hit 5 homers in 6 aaa games, and 1 in 2 mlb games.

 

Projection is based on minor stats and they take into account park and league factors. I believe the Eastern leagues both in double a and triple a, are tougher for a hitter then the western leagues.

 

Also he's 22, so 22 to 23 they'd project some growth.

 

Roberts is basically projected to continue doing what he has already done in MLB.

 

System isn't perfect though so his high projection could be a bit of a quirk from his crazy week in aaa and mlb. I'm not sure. Never dived into the details so don't listen too much to me, but maybe someone more knowledgeable will chime in.

Olerud363 FCL Blue Jays

Olerud363

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
Quick add to above.. Roberts is projected to continue doing what he has in 2020 AND 2021 combined, so projection may look low if you think his 2021 is real.
Spanky99 GOAT

Spanky99

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
Great response.

 

Wtf??? It's complex obviously... they throw all that information into a simulator run it a few zillion times and get their results. I was trying to help, f*** you dick.

FantasyNewb College Ball

FantasyNewb

Verified Member
Posted
Posted
He hit something like .300 .370 .590 in 70 games. One weird thing was that he hit 5 homers in 6 aaa games, and 1 in 2 mlb games.

 

Projection is based on minor stats and they take into account park and league factors. I believe the Eastern leagues both in double a and triple a, are tougher for a hitter then the western leagues.

 

Also he's 22, so 22 to 23 they'd project some growth.

 

Roberts is basically projected to continue doing what he has already done in MLB.

 

System isn't perfect though so his high projection could be a bit of a quirk from his crazy week in aaa and mlb. I'm not sure. Never dived into the details so don't listen too much to me, but maybe someone more knowledgeable will chime in.

 

Thanks. I just have been going over projections for the past few years and never seen a player who only played a couple games projecting as high as he is at the moment. Especially a high average like .272. He's projecting to have the same WAR as Semein and is projecting higher than players like Story, Springer, Albies, etc. He's a top prospect but not ranked in top 10 or 20 in many lists. I just find it odd.

FantasyNewb College Ball

FantasyNewb

Verified Member
Posted
Posted
Wtf??? It's complex obviously... they throw all that information into a simulator run it a few zillion times and get their results. I was trying to help, f*** you dick.

 

I'm probably more of a **** than a dick. But I'll accept the f*** you either way.

Spanky99 GOAT

Spanky99

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
Quick add to above.. Roberts is projected to continue doing what he has in 2020 AND 2021 combined, so projection may look low if you think his 2021 is real.

 

Projections will always be lower, it's regression to the mean, players have down years and career years all the time. Didn't think I had to explain that a top prospect in Cruz mashed, therefore his projection. It'll never be accurate, but it's the best us plebs have to work with, this *Yo Bro's* a jerk for someone who asks a lot of questions on here, that's the second time he's been an ass to me in response, f*** that guy.

Spanky99 GOAT

Spanky99

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
I'm probably more of a **** than a dick. But I'll accept the f*** you either way.

 

No doubt. It's Steamer600 not the same as pre-season projections, jesus f***.

WryNGinger Draft Eligible

WryNGinger

Verified Member
Posted
Posted
Wtf??? It's complex obviously... they throw all that information into a simulator run it a few zillion times and get their results. I was trying to help, f*** you dick.

 

Spanky...I like you. You are an amazing contributor to this forum. I think you have a great sense of humour and love your knowledge of baseball.

 

Dude...don't assume vitriol or sarcasm on every response...lol. I read that reply by FantasyNewb and thought he was giving you a compliment. You responded with anger and I was like was like "what did I miss?".

 

If I get fired up I keep my sh*t in draft and wait until the next day to put people on blast. Anyhoo... love your contributions to this site my man...

Spanky99 GOAT

Spanky99

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
Spanky...I like you. You are an amazing contributor to this forum. I think you have a great sense of humour and love your knowledge of baseball.

 

Dude...don't assume vitriol or sarcasm on every response...lol. I read that reply by FantasyNewb and thought he was giving you a compliment. You responded with anger and I was like was like "what did I miss?".

 

If I get fired up I keep my sh*t in draft and wait until the next day to put people on blast. Anyhoo... love your contributions to this site my man...

 

Cheers mate, but that post was dripping in sarcasm, the follow up says as much too.

connorp New Hampshire Fisher Cats

connorp

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
Cheers mate, but that post was dripping in sarcasm, the follow up says as much too.

 

For the record Spanky, my response to you was sarcastic and antagonistic. That was probably why you thought the other guys was too

Stangstag Toronto Blue Jays

Stangstag

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
Grichuk, Kirk and Pearson for German Marquez

 

Too much? Too little?

 

Jays could roll with Jansen/Mcguire until Moreno is ready for a call up.

 

Why would they want Grichuk

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