Revisiting Our 2026 Bold Predictions

Optimism surrounds every team entering spring training. The weather is getting a little warmer, the days are getting a little longer, and if you scroll through social media timelines, you will see the boys of summer donning their Blue Jays gear and getting work in down in Dunedin, Florida. 

This past season, in particular, optimism was at an all-time high; the Jays played baseball well into November the year prior, the city buzzed with baseball fever, and people thought this year they would get over the hump and be the only team left standing at the end of it all.

In the end, the Blue Jays fell short and missed the playoffs entirely, but let's flash back to March, when optimism was high, and check in on some of the bold predictions we made to see where we ended up. Just like the players on the field, we writers need to be held accountable, too.

1) Michael Coyle: Kevin Gausman and Dylan Cease both throw over 200 IP and strike out over 200 batters

Did it happen? - No

In hindsight, betting on two of the most dominant and consistent workhorse starters over the past five seasons wasn’t a bad bet. Cease had been one of baseball's most durable pitchers, and only Logan Webb had thrown more innings than Gausman over the previous four seasons, but unfortunately, this didn’t come true.

Dylan Cease had a dominant first season in Toronto, one that will likely earn him Cy Young votes, and he eclipsed the 200+ strikeout mark, finishing with 239, third-best in baseball. But that was the only part of this prediction that worked out.

Cease spent some time on the IL and finished with just 169 innings pitched. Gausman threw 127.1 in Toronto and another 50.1 with the Cubs, and he only finished with 181 strikeouts across both teams, so not quite there.

This isn't necessarily a knock on them; only three pitchers in the majors eclipsed the 200 innings mark (Sandy Alcantara, Cristopher Sánchez, Michael Wacha), and only 13 eclipsed the 200 strikeout mark, which is what made this prediction bold in the first place. It may be a while before we see another Blue Jays starter push past 200 IP again.

2) Matthew Creally: Brendon Little will have a sub-2.50 ERA

Did it happen? - No

Welp.

Overall, Little didn't get there. He was a big part of the bullpen in the first half of the 2025 season. Then he faded down the stretch and into the playoffs, and a portion of the fanbase started to turn on Little.

But back in March, things were looking better; Little had made some changes to his pitch mix. He added a four-seam fastball and a re-tooled slider to his arsenal, and John Schneider even called Little his reliever MVP of the spring after he did not allow a run and struck out over 40% of batters.

Unfortunately, things went south quickly. Little allowed runs in four of his first five appearances, and three of them were three-run outings or worse. From there, the team optioned him to the minors, and he didn't return full-time until July. Overall, he finished the season with a 6.35 ERA. However, over his 23.2 innings in the second half, he produced a 2.28 ERA, so there's reason to be optimistic about Little again going into 2027.

3) Mike LeSage: Kevin Gausman will finish second in Cy Young voting

Did it happen? - Still pending (but no)

The good news: The Blue Jays will likely have a pitcher finish second in Cy Young voting! The bad news: it won't be Kevin Gausman.

Like the 200+ inning and strikeout call, some bets were on Gausman continuing to do what he’s always done, but as he pitched through his age-35 season, his effectiveness dropped a touch from previous levels. While his strikeout and walk numbers were generally the same as they were in his prior two seasons, he allowed more hits and gave up more home runs. It wasn’t a bad season, but Gausman needed to take a leap forward to enter the Cy Young contention, and that didn’t happen.

4) Bryan Jaeger: Daulton Varsho finishes top three in AL MVP voting

Did it happen? - Still pending (but no)

Oh, what could have been for Daulton Varsho.

Not only will he not finish top three in MVP voting, but he also wasn’t even in the top three on his own team (either of them). He hit just seven home runs, posted a 91 wRC+, and his usually elite defence took a step back.

Flash back to 2025, and it looked like Varsho had made some serious changes to his game. He hit 20 home runs in just 71 games and seemed like he was about to catapult in his walk year as a power hitter with excellent center field defence. The recipe for an elite season from Varsho was there, but it fell apart, and it got even worse after a midseason trade to Houston.

What will happen for Varsho on the free-agent market remains to be seen, but his drop-off from such promise to such a disappointing season helped keep the Blue Jays out of the playoff race. We’ll see what happens for him this offseason.

5) Simon Li: Austin Cates jumps into the top 15 in the Blue Jays system

Did this happen - No

Now for one from down on the farm. Cates was an intriguing arm entering the system. The 23-year-old had success pitching for Dunedin and then Vancouver in prior years. While his 2026 season wasn’t bad and there's reason for optimism, he’s unlikely to rank among the system's top 15 prospects.

He got the bump to Double-A this year, where he started 20 games and posted a 5.17 ERA. He still has a nice fastball/splitter combo that can play well when he locates effectively, and he’s still young. Cates started the Blue Jays' spring breakout game in 2026 and remains an intriguing prospect.

The team should get a good look at Cates next spring, and this prediction may be a year too early for the young right-hander. But ultimately, he’s not ranked among Jays Centre's top 15 prospects (or any major publication's list), so this one is also incorrect for now.

6) Sam Charles: The Blue Jays will not win more than 80 games

Did this happen? - Yes

Well, the good news: We got one right! The bad news: This wasn't the outcome we wanted.

We all know how the season played out. The offense was dreadful, the injury bug devastated the pitching staff, and in the end, the Jays finished with just 79 wins.

George Springer, Daulton Varsho, Alejandro Kirk, Davis Schneider, Nathan Lukes, Myles Straw, and Ernie Clement all finished with a higher wRC+ in 2025 than in 2026, and the team also got almost nothing from Anthony Santander and Addison Barger; the season was a bust for Vladimir Guerrero Jr., too.

The good news is the Blue Jays should bounce back to a more respectable win total in 2027, but there are more questions now than before this year.

7) Edward Eng: Jeff Hoffman figures out the home run issues and becomes the shutdown closer the Blue Jays need

Did this happen? - No

Well, the first half of the bold prediction was true! Jeff Hoffman did figure out his home run issues. His astonishing 1.99 HR/9 from 2025 dropped to 0.55 this past season, his lowest since 2023 with the Phillies. Still, ultimately this prediction wasn’t the case. Hoffman was removed from the closer role by the end of April, and Louis Varland put together one of the best closer seasons by a Blue Jay in his place instead.

It wasn’t the home runs that got Hoffman; it was an extremely high BABIP. It finished at .356, but early in the season it was well over .400, both extremely high numbers. It wasn’t BABIP alone that got Hoffman removed from the role, but it's important to note that Hoffman was still solid through the middle of the season and gave the Blue Jays some quality relief before a midseason trade sent him to Minnesota. In the end, the Blue Jays got the shutdown closer they needed, but it just wasn't Jeff Hoffman.

8) Leo Morgenstern: Two Blue Jays will make their first All-Star Game this summer

Did this happen? - Yes

Success! The 2026 All-Star Game was very Blue Jays-prominent, with John Schneider and his coaching staff leading a bullpen game, and the AL side winning 4-0. Three Blue Jays became first-time All-Stars: Dylan Cease, Ernie Clement, and Louis Varland all represented the Blue Jays in Philadelphia this summer.

The Blue Jays started that game with one of their first-time All-Stars, Cease, who led AL pitchers in fWAR through the first half of the season and threw a clean first inning to start the Midsummer Classic. Joining him as a first-time All-Star was Clement, who not only won the vote to start at second base but also led the American League with over 3.2 million votes.

Varland gave up a hit and struck out one in a clean relief inning, and John Schneider and the coaching staff went home happy. Kazuma Okamoto, Addison Barger, or, to a lesser extent, Cody Ponce or Spencer Miles could have a shot to crack the All-Star Game for the first time next season.

If I wanted to be pedantic, I could say this prediction was wrong because the Blue Jays sent three players to their first All-Star Game and not two, but we need a win, and we’ll take that here.

9) Owen Hill: José Berríos makes more starts than Max Scherzer

Did it happen? - No

At the time, you could see how bold this prediction was. José Berríos was set to start the season on the IL, but his season wasn't over yet. Max Scherzer joined late in spring and was entering what, at the time, was a crowded starting-pitching puzzle. Unfortunately, Berrios had Tommy John surgery on his right elbow and didn’t make a start for the 2026 Toronto Blue Jays.

Scherzer, on the other hand, ended up making 18 starts for the team, and at times the Jays were relying on Scherzer while they didn't have many other options in the starting rotation.

Berríos will likely miss the start of next season, but assuming no setbacks, he will be on the comeback trail in 2027. What Scherzer will do, on the other hand, remains to be seen; the now 43-year-old could retire from baseball, or he could rejoin the Blue Jays or another team.

10) Bob Ritchie: Andrés Giménez steals 25+ bases and has a wRC+ above 114

Did this happen? - No

Andrés Giménez didn't hit these numbers in 2026. Giménez did lead the team with 20 stolen bases, but didn't reach the 25 plateau after stealing 30 in both 2023 and 2024.

As for his wRC+, while it improved from 2025, he finished at just 81, 19% below league average. Giménez did have his moments at the plate, though; he led the team in RBI with 59 and ranked third in raw +WPA, showing he can still come up with some clutch production.

The Andrés Giménez who finished sixth in MVP voting in 2022 seems well in the rearview mirror now, and barring something unexpected, the bat seems to have settled around this range for the time being.

11) Jesse Burrill: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. will set the record for the hardest hit ball in the Statcast era

Did this happen? - No

Ever since Vladimir Guerrero Jr. was a prospect and was crushing baseballs harder than ever, I've always thought he’d one day sit at the top of the exit velocity leaderboards.

The current leader was Oneil Cruz, who hit a baseball at 122.9 mph in 2025 and also hit the hardest ball in 2026 at 119 mph.

Vlad’s hardest-hit ball was 116.3 mph, which still put him 13th in baseball in max EV, but that was his lowest max EV since the COVID-shortened 2020 season. His overall offensive numbers were down across the board, and his exit velocity numbers were a part of that too. He hit a baseball at 120.4 mph in 2025, so he can still put it all together. But Vlad has a lot of work to do at the plate before he can worry about elite EV numbers, no matter how fun that would be.

Overall, as a group, the Jays Centre staff went 2-9 on our bold predictions. So we're batting .222 as a unit. Or the equivalent of Brandon Valenzuela’s batting average. But that's the point of bold predictions. If we got too many right, you could argue they weren’t bold enough, and if we got none, that wouldn't be great either.

Going into spring 2027, once the players and owners have come to terms on a CBA (hopefully), we can get optimistic about baseball again, and I'm sure the predictions will be even bolder next time around.