Trade Deadline Rumors and Discussion Thread 2021

[Laika]

Playoff odds don't lie but I still like their chances.

 

It looks pretty clear at this point that the White Sox and Astros will win their divisions, and then the Rays and Red Sox will take the AL East slot and one of the WC slots.

 

4.5 games back of the 2nd Wild Card.

 

Looks like they have to catch the Yankees, Mariners, and Athletics and hold off the Indian Spider Guardians and the Angels.

 

None of the teams racing for the 2nd Wild Card are that scary. The Blue Jays are still "right in the thick of it" despite the bad luck and blown games.

 

Only a loser organization would sell at the deadline if they are in that position at that time.

[FantasyNewb]

Padres are looking to trade Hosmer and is looking to include top prospects to do so. He's owed $59 million. Say if the Padres paid $10 million, what prospects would be needed to be worth taking on that contract?

[Laika]

Padres are looking to trade Hosmer and is looking to include top prospects to do so. He's owed $59 million. Say if the Padres paid $10 million, what prospects would be needed to be worth taking on that contract?

 

He is dogshit and owed like $67M through 2025. Toronto would never do a trade taking him on. It's a ~$67M sunk cost.

 

The Padres would have to eat like $20M and then add like, two of their top 6 or so prospects. They would never give up guys like Hassell or Gore just to shed Hosmer. At least I can't imagine.

[BTS]

How many prospects in baseball would be worth taking on a 67M sunk cost?

[FantasyNewb]

He is dogshit and owed like $67M through 2025. Toronto would never do a trade taking him on. It's a ~$67M sunk cost.

 

The Padres would have to eat like $20M and then add like, two of their top 6 or so prospects. They would never give up guys like Hassell or Gore just to shed Hosmer. At least I can't imagine.

 

Yeah, I just read that they are willing to include "significant" prospect value to get a deal done. Not that I want the Jays to get him, but curious to know what to would take for a team to take on that contract like that.

[Laika]

How many prospects in baseball would be worth taking on a 67M sunk cost?

 

Maybe 9? Just going down the board on Fangraphs, I would not pay that much for Riley Greene or Noelvi Marte. I might for J Rod, Witt, Luciano. Maybe.

[Olerud363]

Yeah, I just read that they are willing to include "significant" prospect value to get a deal done. Not that I want the Jays to get him, but curious to know what to would take for a team to take on that contract like that.

 

I wonder if they'd be open to trading Cronenworth now that they have Frazier, or if we added Semien to replace Cronenworth for this year

 

Grichuk + Semien +x for Hosmer + Cronenworth + y

 

What is x and y to make it even?

 

Cronenworth is super-valuable I assume, so maybe this is a pipe dream... but if they really want to get rid of Hosmer they have to give up something.

[BTS]

Maybe 9? Just going down the board on Fangraphs, I would not pay that much for Riley Greene or Noelvi Marte. I might for J Rod, Witt, Luciano. Maybe.

 

Yeah, sounds about right. Fewer than 10 for sure. Off the top of my head, I don't think we've ever seen a sunk cost as big as Hosmer packaged with prospect capital to a team willing to eat the contract.

[FantasyNewb]

I read that he's only owed $59 million. But even so, I know the Padres would have to take on some money. If they pay it down to the 40 range. Is there anything there worth that value. I just don't know the value put on top prospects. Say if players like Abrams and Gore were posted where teams would bid, what kind of deals would they get?

[BigCecil]

He is dogshit and owed like $67M through 2025. Toronto would never do a trade taking him on. It's a ~$67M sunk cost.

 

The Padres would have to eat like $20M and then add like, two of their top 6 or so prospects. They would never give up guys like Hassell or Gore just to shed Hosmer. At least I can't imagine.

 

I have some SDP friends who are fans who were so excited when they signed him to that huge deal after an anomaly 4 WAR 2017. I guess still some hype over the 2015 WS ring. He is a "winner".

 

I thought that deal was idiotic then and now. Just a bad bad signing.

[Olerud363]

I read that he's only owed $59 million. But even so, I know the Padres would have to take on some money. If they pay it down to the 40 range. Is there anything there worth that value. I just don't know the value put on top prospects. Say if players like Abrams and Gore were posted where teams would bid, what kind of deals would they get?

 

Cronenworth, not sure how the value works out there. The Jays have to add Semien, then maybe Jays are the ones having to add prospects as he has 4 or 5 years of control (fits with our window)

 

Then sign Charlie to a 4 year extension... lineup is

 

Springer

Vlad

Hosmer

Bichette

Cronenworth

Hernandez

Biggio/Martin/Groshans

Gurriel

Kirk/Moreno

 

I wouldn't hit Hosmer third, but Charlie is in charge not me. Since Charlie is nice to Hosmer and fills him with confidence and cheer, Hosmer hits a bit better than he has lately, .290 .340 .450 or so... Jays are a powerhouse with 105 potential - 3 loss wins from Charlie = 102

[saskjayfan]

Playoff odds don't lie but I still like their chances.

 

It looks pretty clear at this point that the White Sox and Astros will win their divisions, and then the Rays and Red Sox will take the AL East slot and one of the WC slots.

 

4.5 games back of the 2nd Wild Card.

 

Looks like they have to catch the Yankees, Mariners, and Athletics and hold off the Indian Spider Guardians and the Angels.

 

None of the teams racing for the 2nd Wild Card are that scary. The Blue Jays are still "right in the thick of it" despite the bad luck and blown games.

 

Only a loser organization would sell at the deadline if they are in that position at that time.

 

I've been in the buy, buy, buy camp, but if they lose 2 of their next 3 or get swept by the Sox it's hard not to consider selling. We needed to win that game last night. There was no excuse for the Jays not having a lefty up for Verdugo. It's just so incredibly frustrating.

[BTS]

Cronenworth, not sure how the value works out there. The Jays have to add Semien, then maybe Jays are the ones having to add prospects as he has 4 or 5 years of control (fits with our window)

 

Then sign Charlie to a 4 year extension... lineup is

 

Springer

Vlad

Hosmer

Bichette

Cronenworth

Hernandez

Biggio/Martin/Groshans

Gurriel

Kirk/Moreno

 

I wouldn't hit Hosmer third, but Charlie is in charge not me. Since Charlie is nice to Hosmer and fills him with confidence and cheer, Hosmer hits a bit better than he has lately, .290 .340 .450 or so... Jays are a powerhouse with 105 potential - 3 loss wins from Charlie = 102

 

Trading for Hosmer to effectively pay cash for assets would be acceptable. But actually keeping him on the roster would be unforgiveable. He's awful, and doesn't seem like the kind of person to accept a bench/platoon role graciously.

[glory]

Hosmer with Montoyo managing would play everyday and bat 3rd. Not worth it even for the prospects.

[Brownie19]

I have some SDP friends who are fans who were so excited when they signed him to that huge deal after an anomaly 4 WAR 2017. I guess still some hype over the 2015 WS ring. He is a "winner".

 

I thought that deal was idiotic then and now. Just a bad bad signing.

 

2017 wasn't really an anomaly - he had 2 other 3+ WAR seasons under his belt. He had this weird pattern where he only hit well in odd years (2011, 2013, 2015 and 2017). Of course that came to an end and now he's just straight up dog s***.

[Brownie19]

Great news - we're on Hosmer's limited 10 team no-trade list.

[The Cats Ass]

The Hosmer signing has been a disaster for the Padres. He's put up a combined WAR of 0 over his first 4 years, with 3 of those 4 being of the negative variety. He has another 4.5 years remaining on that contract; I can't see him using his opt out after the 2022 season.

[Angrioter]

I hate Hosmer as a player

[glory]

Playoff odds don't lie but I still like their chances.

 

It looks pretty clear at this point that the White Sox and Astros will win their divisions, and then the Rays and Red Sox will take the AL East slot and one of the WC slots.

 

4.5 games back of the 2nd Wild Card.

 

Looks like they have to catch the Yankees, Mariners, and Athletics and hold off the Indian Spider Guardians and the Angels.

 

None of the teams racing for the 2nd Wild Card are that scary. The Blue Jays are still "right in the thick of it" despite the bad luck and blown games.

 

Only a loser organization would sell at the deadline if they are in that position at that time.

 

When the Yankees traded Chapman to the Cubs in 2016, they were 51-48 and 4.5 games back of the 2nd WC. They went to game 7 of the ALCS the following year.

 

The Jays won't sell because they are going back home for the first time since 2019, but I don't think it would look bad on the org if they did.

[Laika]

When the Yankees traded Chapman to the Cubs in 2016, they were 51-48 and 4.5 games back of the 2nd WC. They went to game 7 of the ALCS the following year.

 

The Jays won't sell because they are going back home for the first time since 2019, but I don't think it would look bad on the org if they did.

 

Yeah well if someone wants to trade a Gleyber Torres type prospect for Ray and/or Semien then sure, do it.

[BlueRocky]

[Olerud363]

Trading for Hosmer to effectively pay cash for assets would be acceptable. But actually keeping him on the roster would be unforgiveable. He's awful, and doesn't seem like the kind of person to accept a bench/platoon role graciously.

 

I agree, but I don't think that's how they'd play it, if they got him. They'd give him a year of at bats to see if he could help.

 

He'd be taking Grichuk's at bats so might even improve the team, at least improve the left/right balance a bit. I'd probably rather have a .270 .330 .400 lefty with lower k rate in there, rather than .260 .285 .450 Grichuk.

 

Probably doesn't make much of a difference either way, and if they have been willing to play Grichuk they play Hosmer, at least for a while.

[Olerud363]

When the Yankees traded Chapman to the Cubs in 2016, they were 51-48 and 4.5 games back of the 2nd WC. They went to game 7 of the ALCS the following year.

 

The Jays won't sell because they are going back home for the first time since 2019, but I don't think it would look bad on the org if they did.

 

Well that's how they play it. Choose the high end prospect they want. Put a notice out that teams can have Ray or Semien for the high end prospect they want then take the week off but have the phone handy if anyone is willing to pay.l

[BigCecil]

2017 wasn't really an anomaly - he had 2 other 3+ WAR seasons under his belt. He had this weird pattern where he only hit well in odd years (2011, 2013, 2015 and 2017). Of course that came to an end and now he's just straight up dog s***.

 

lol. Yup. Agree. I looked at his career year by year this am. 2016 was brutal for him after a 3.5 fWAR 2015 WS year. (Pillar's was 3.7 2015 to compare) I'd put the signing kind of in the Dexter Fowler/Sandoval camp lol. Cain and these guys signed some big deals which in a bizarre way came in part from big WS years and hype.

[bronson44]

[Signal]

Given the record, I don't think it is time for the Jays to sell but it is also not the time to sell off top prospects for rentals. I think the Jays should be simply looking to improve the team with players that they have control of beyond this year. You have to give this group a chance to make the playoffs and give them the opportunity to gain the experience of being in a pennant race and possibly further playoff experience. The players deserve that opportunity. BUT, at the same time, you must have a balanced approach because the greatness of this franchise is in the next couple of years. So I am hoping Atkins makes a couple of moves that shore up the pitching with the players that will contribute to the team beyond this year while not draining the talent in the minors. In my mind, Atkins has to walk a very thin line during the trade deadline. I think anyone hoping to see blockbuster deals either way...selling or buying is going to be disappointed. Edited July 27, 2021 by Signal

[RobinThicc]

Hasnt Rodrigues been trash since the sticky stuff crack down?

[Signal]

Hasnt Rodrigues been trash since the sticky stuff crack down?

 

His ERA over the last 15 games is 4.80. Not certain it is a result of the sticky stuff crack down but he has not been lights out lately.

[BlueRocky]

 

Where would Trea Turner slot in this lineup?

Edited July 27, 2021 by BlueRocky

[Stangstag]

 

Where would Trea Turner slot in this lineup?

 

In the Jays lineup? I'd have him anywhere between the 1-3 spots.