Trade Deadline Rumors and Discussion Thread 2021

[OtisNixonFan]

They're not selling, man. lol

 

I'm aware.. I just wish we were. This team even if it flukes into a wild card ain't gonna do s***. Too many holes.

[Spanky99]

That's a great return for the Twins. Joe Ryan projects as a solid SP.

 

Strotman's no slouch, very good trade for both clubs.

[TwistedLogic]

[Spanky99]

I'm aware.. I just wish we were. This team even if it flukes into a wild card ain't gonna do s***. Too many holes.

 

4.5 games back and it's July 22nd, "before the deadline", they're buying and it wouldn't be a fluke?

[Slade]

Here's the BA analysis.

 

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/nelson-cruz-trade-analysis-scouting-reports-for-every-twins-rays-player-involved/

 

The race to baseball's July 30 trade deadline is officially on.

 

The Twins and Rays synced up for July's first significant deal, with Minnesota sending all-star designated hitter Nelson Cruz to Tampa Bay in exchange for a pair of righthanded arms, Joe Ryan and Drew Strotman. The Twins also sent minor league reliever Calvin Faucher to the Rays.

 

Cruz, arguably the most powerful bat on the market, was an obvious trade candidate as a pending free agent after the Twins failed to meet expectations this year, and makes sense as a fit in Tampa Bay. The move fixes one of the biggest holes in Tampa Bay’s well-diversified lineup, giving them a righthanded slugger who has slugged .500 or better in 13 of the past 14 seasons.

 

For the Twins, acquiring two close-to-MLB-ready starting pitchers helps bulk up a rotation that will see J.A. Happ and Michael Pineda hit free agency at the end of the season. Jose Berrios, also a potential trade candidate, is a free agent after 2022.

 

Ryan is the headliner of the return, although neither pitcher heading to Minnesota appears far off from the majors. Ryan briefly spent time in our Top 100 prospects list last season, and is considered one of the better arms in the Tampa Bay's deep system. Ryan is also penciled into Team USA's starting rotation as it competes in the Tokyo Olympics.

 

Scouting reports below.

 

TWINS ACQUIRE

 

Joe Ryan, RHP

Age: 25

 

For the Twins, Ryan gives them a nearly MLB-ready pitcher with a chance to start. He was slated to rank seventh among the Rays Top 30 at the midseason update. Ryan has been able to dominate minor league lineups with a very fastball-heavy approach and plus control. Ryan’s fastball doesn’t have overwhelming velocity (it sits 90-93 mph and tops out at 94-96) and it doesn’t have the massive spin rates/movement profile that generally indicates massive carry at the top of the zone. But Ryan hides the ball well and has consistently gotten swings and misses with his fastball. This year, Triple-A hitters have swung and missed at 20 percent of his fastballs in the strike zone. His low-80s fringe-average slider does get some chases out of the zone and he’s gotten better at spotting it on the outer third and down-and-away out of the zone to righthanded hitters. But it's not a weapon, and neither is his slow, early count get-over curveball. He throws an average changeup, mainly to lefties. Ryan’s fastball-heavy approach raises some concerns about how well it will work turning over a lineup multiple times as a major league starter, but he’s had success with his approach at all levels of the minors and there are evaluators who believe his fastball will continue to be successful against MLB hitters. At worst, he should be a useful reliever, but his durability and plus control should give him a shot at starting.

 

Drew Strotman, RHP

Age: 24

 

Strotman has bounced back from Tommy John surgery in 2019 and was slated to rank No. 23 in the Rays midseason prospects update. His stuff is every bit what it was before the surgery, but his control has not been as sharp since his return. Strotman mixes a 92-95 mph fastball with a hard, high-80s slider that sometimes has depth. He’s added a high-80s/low-90s cutter that is equally effective. Strotman commands his slider and cutter better than his fastball, and at times he will use them to get back to even in counts. He also throws a slower mid-70s curveball that he doesn’t command all that well, but it can be used as a surprise early-count strike. His changeup has improved to the point that it gives him a third average offering. It has solid deception and some late arm-side fade. It’s proven to be a swing-and-miss pitch for him in Triple-A. Strotman has a varied assortment, solid stuff and upper-level success. For a Twins team that needs pitching for 2022 and beyond, he’s a useful addition who could start. Improving his fringy control is the remaining item on his to-do list.

 

 

RAYS ACQUIRE

 

Nelson Cruz, DH

Age: 41

 

Cruz is an ageless wonder, continuing to punish baseball’s this season to the tune of a 141 wRC+ through 85 games. He ranks among the 92nd percentile or better in average exit velocity, max exit velocity, hard hit percentage, as well as expected wOBA, batting average, slugging percentage. In other words: Cruz hits the ball hard, often far, and adds extra oomph to a Rays lineup that has been mostly average (101 wRC+) this year and owns a .682 OPS against lefties, which Cruz feasts on.

 

Calvin Faucher, RHP

Age: 25

 

In Faucher, the Rays get a pitcher whose fastball this season has averaged 95 mph and touched 100. The numbers are not pretty, (1-1, 7.06) but he has whiffed 42 in 30.2 innings. The fastball plays fairly true, however, and gets hit. He backs it with an extremely high-spin curveball thrown in the mid 80s as well as a cutter he uses roughly one-third of the time. He alternates which side of the rubber he throws from and has a short-stride delivery. He was taken out of UC Irvine in the 10th round of the 2017 draft.

[Spanky99]

Very unlikely that any will be better than Bo Bichette. Moreno has a realistic chance to be better but it's a pipe dream for all the others.

 

Bo is a super stud. Top 20 asset in baseball right now.

 

Top 20?

 

I'm a big fan, but that seems a stretch to me.

 

He currently doesn't crack the top 30 in WAR or wRC+

 

I'm probably being a touch to optimistic though, but I do believe Kirk/Moreno/Martin/Groshans/Martinez will all play and excel at the MLB level.

 

Pre arb players as good as Bo are top 20 assets. Other teams would give their left and right nuts for him.

 

6.4 WAR through his first 162 games as a 23 year old making pre-arb.

 

but yeah, totally not a Top 20 asset in baseball.

 

Relevant... he's right at 20 in value by fangraphs.

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2021-trade-value-11-to-20/

 

Bellinger dropped right off the list from being ranked 9 last year, lol. Crazy!

[Spanky99]

Here's the BA analysis.

 

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/nelson-cruz-trade-analysis-scouting-reports-for-every-twins-rays-player-involved/

 

That's a pretty damn good trade for both clubs, Rays overpaid a bit but they can afford it, considering their roster crunch coming up in the MILB.

[Kevin9394]

I'm aware.. I just wish we were. This team even if it flukes into a wild card ain't gonna do s***. Too many holes.

 

The biggest one is Moronyo?

[Spanky99]

This deadline's going to be nuts in the East. 7.5 days to go...

[Spanky99]

Man... the Rays got Boomstick...

[glory]

The Adames and Cronenworth trades prove the Rays are human when it comes to trading (they don't win all of them, thankfully), but it wouldn't surprise me at all if Calvin Faucher ends up having a better run than the two pitchers they gave up. The Rays are scary with trades most of the time.

 

I saw Buster Olney on SC mention Rizzo a possibility for the Red Sox, and that makes a lot of sense.

[saskjayfan]

The Adames and Cronenworth trades prove the Rays are human when it comes to trading (they don't win all of them, thankfully), but it wouldn't surprise me at all if Calvin Faucher ends up having a better run than the two pitchers they gave up. The Rays are scary with trades most of the time.

 

I saw Buster Olney on SC mention Rizzo a possibility for the Red Sox, and that makes a lot of sense.

 

I'm putting on my big boy pants and fighting back. I'm trading for Marquez, Story and Givens. Gurriel or Biggio going back. One of Pearson, Martin, Groshans or SWR. One of Hiraldo, lopez, Van Eyk and another couple lower ranked prospects. Kevin Smith and someone else.

[Spanky99]

I'm putting on my big boy pants and fighting back. I'm trading for Marquez, Story and Givens. Gurriel or Biggio going back. One of Pearson, Martin, Groshans or SWR. One of Hiraldo, lopez, Van Eyk and another couple lower ranked prospects. Kevin Smith and someone else.

 

Rockies hang up laughing.

[TwistedLogic]

[Spanky99]

They basically gave Rich Hill away, open two 40 man spots. Man they've been giving up value on these moves, Hurl called this a while back. But we know why.

[Ryu In My House]

The Jays cannot beat the Ray or Boston. And we don't fare well against the Yankees. It is time to sell Semien and Ray.

[OtisNixonFan]

Thats what I said. Get some Hi-A or AA talent that fits the window. This rotation is at least a couple pieces away and we need top end pen arms.

[Ryu In My House]

Thats what I said. Get some Hi-A or AA talent that fits the window. This rotation is at least a couple pieces away and we need top end pen arms.

 

It will piss everyone off, but yeah. Sell these guys for some controllable talent. The Jays don't have a lot of payroll commitment next year. They can trade and sign FAs for 2022. And I will bet the Jays will still make September interesting.

[saskjayfan]

It will piss everyone off, but yeah. Sell these guys for some controllable talent. The Jays don't have a lot of payroll commitment next year. They can trade and sign FAs for 2022. And I will bet the Jays will still make September interesting.

 

They are in a tough position. If you trade Ray do you have any chance of resigning him? Sports is about confidence. We're slumping a bit at the wrong time. Trading Ray and Semien would be deflating. The team could tank. We'd get a higher draft pick. We'd have money to spend in the off season. It might be more difficult attracting players to the team in an environment where the Yankees and Red Sox both will exceed the cap again. San Fran has a ton of money to spend. There will be a more competitive environment for free agents this upcoming off season vs last off season.

 

The thought of losing Semien for nothing is not a great thought, because you will get something valuable for him. The reality if they went the sell route, they wouldn't do it until the last minute. It's in the players hands now. Win 5 of the next 7 and the team will buy.

[Benito]

I'm likely in the minority, but I'm fine not making a push for the playoffs this year. I just think the gap is pretty big between Jays and some of the top teams, that the cost to close it would be too high in prospect capital for my liking. Obviously anything can happen once you get into the playoffs, but I see next year as the more realistic time frame to press the gas pedal towards the playoffs. With a historically strong FA class, and potential off season trades, Jays can fill the gaps needed to elevate them to true contender status.

 

I still want to see them win as many games as possible and hopefully remain in the race for that 2nd WC to the end.

[Dick_Pole]

The only way they should be sellers is if a trade for Semien or Ray is an overpay. The only way they should be buyers is if it's a good deal for someone not on an expiring contract. Otherwise they should stand pat. I don't need to hear whining in 2025 about how the team should have traded Semien based on some nonsense rumour like we still hear people whining about Donaldson trade rumours back in 2017.

[RobinThicc]

The compensation pick for Semien, and I believe Ray will net the Jays one too, should be enough tbh. Id keep them with hopes of re-signing them.

 

Obviously team shouldnt really buying any rentals this year.

[Jays24]

The only way they should be sellers is if a trade for Semien or Ray is an overpay. The only way they should be buyers is if it's a good deal for someone not on an expiring contract. Otherwise they should stand pat. I don't need to hear whining in 2025 about how the team should have traded Semien based on some nonsense rumour like we still hear people whining about Donaldson trade rumours back in 2017.

 

Exactly. This team will not trade any major pieces for a rental. Whoever they get will be under control for a few years at least.

 

I want to win this season as much as anyone but the long term picture matters the most here. Beginning next season, there will be no excuses. Expanded playoffs, which I feel will be added next year, will probably make the process easier too.

[Ehjays]

The compensation pick for Semien, and I believe Ray will net the Jays one too, should be enough tbh. Id keep them with hopes of re-signing them.

 

Obviously team shouldnt really buying any rentals this year.

 

Something terrible to ponder.........Did u ever wonder about this, We all knew we got a great deal with Semien signing here. One year deal, switching positions, very well priced.

 

Now what does he get in return, this is only an assumption, but he did this to build the greatest value, how do u build the greatest value?

 

1) He wants the team to let him play everyday (dont care 2nd or SS)

2) He doesn't care where he bats in the lineup, just play everyday, do not replace him in a blowout.

3) You can trade him if u see fit, but DO NOT put a qualifying offer on his back at seasons end as that would decrease his value.

 

Im hoping this is not the case but Atkins will know and act accordingly, and how attractive would that make Semien All-Star 2B and SS with no draft pick attatched

[gruber92]

Like someone said earlier, the performance of the team over the next 5-6 days will directly influence management's decisions. I personally would trade Semien 100% as he's going to neutrally test the free agent market like he planned to do all along. Ray could be a different story as he may soften up on resigning. He may be loyal to Walker in helping him turn his career around.

[DigitalRock]

Trading semien makes sense... He is going to the market anyway.this team is not close enough this year, need major pitching re-inforcements.

[Slade]

Imagine that emotional return to the Roger Centre and on that same day the demoralizing message sent while you sell off all your competitive pieces. It's just not going to happen, plus the draft picks for Ray and Simien if they leave are more than good enough reason to keep them unless you get a ridiculous overwhelming offer.

[Ryu In My House]

The compensation pick for Semien, and I believe Ray will net the Jays one too, should be enough tbh. Id keep them with hopes of re-signing them.

 

Obviously team shouldnt really buying any rentals this year.

 

A 2nd round draft pick that will not make an MLB roster for 4-6 years doesn't really fit in this org's window. I mean, they are nice to have, but for those guys I think you'd want players a lot closer. I think both Ray and Semien could garner some almost ready for prime time prospects.

[WONDERBAT]

A 2nd round draft pick that will not make an MLB roster for 4-6 years doesn't really fit in this org's window. I mean, they are nice to have, but for those guys I think you'd want players a lot closer. I think both Ray and Semien could garner some almost ready for prime time prospects.

 

The draft picks are better. At this point we need finished products to compliment our young core, guys like Joe Ryan only add to your depth and you still have to go with further development. We are not in asset collect mode like the last few years, re-sign Semien and Ray then go find that 3B bat.

[Krylian]

The compensation pick for Semien, and I believe Ray will net the Jays one too, should be enough tbh. Id keep them with hopes of re-signing them.

 

Obviously team shouldnt really buying any rentals this year.

 

You can trade, get assets, and still sign them as FAs in the offseason. Moving them doesn't mean you can't re-sign then.