2021 Projected Starting Rotation

[Jays24]

With Ray on board, i originally thought he would be penciled in as our 5th starter but the more I thought about it, he might be looked upon as our 4th.

 

For our 5th starter, I think we'll go with whoever shows up to spring training with better stuff between Roark & Stripling. The other person will be sent to the Pen as our long guy/6th starter. We are already financially committed to both so I think we'll be stuck there.

 

I believe we'll make one big splash to get an ace (Bauer) or a good number 2 (Paxton, Morton, Tanaka), or maybe even Odorizzi/Klueber/Archer depending on how things go. So what are your expectations?

 

1/2 Ryu and ?

3 Pearson

4 Ray

5 Stripling/Roark

[Laika]

I think they will try to add two more SP. Someone like Shoemaker/Smyly/Archer on a one year deal, and then someone for the top part of the rotation. They will try for Bauer, Paxton etc. but it might not work out if the stars don't align. If they don't end up with a big fish I think they'll still add someone for the middle of the rotation, maybe someone like Odorizzi or a veteran like Garrett Richards or Quintana on a pillow contract.

 

Stripling and Ray can come out of the pen if the Jays are blessed with not facing injuries in spring. They don't necessarily need to be penciled into the starting 5. Same for Roark...

[Grant77]

With Ray on board, i originally thought he would be penciled in as our 5th starter but the more I thought about it, he might be looked upon as our 4th.

 

For our 5th starter, I think we'll go with whoever shows up to spring training with better stuff between Roark & Stripling. The other person will be sent to the Pen as our long guy/6th starter. We are already financially committed to both so I think we'll be stuck there.

 

I believe we'll make one big splash to get an ace (Bauer) or a good number 2 (Paxton, Morton, Tanaka), or maybe even Odorizzi/Klueber/Archer depending on how things go. So what are your expectations?

 

1/2 Ryu and ?

3 Pearson

4 Ray

5 Stripling/Roark

 

We have very good depth, so I think it makes sense to pay up for a high end starter like Bauer. With guys like Stripling, Hatch, Kay, Murphy, and Zeuch outside of the projected rotation, I'm less concerned about depth than in years past.

 

There isn't a need to waste money on a guy like Quintana or Richards when we should be developing our young pitchers and upgrading other areas.

[Carlos Danger]

I follow Jays Journal on FB. Not sure why, garbage analysis and commentary. I think it used to be a Josh Donaldson fan page and changed.

 

Anyway, todays article, now that we signed Ray we have taken care of our pitching depth and can concentrate on other things. BS analysis . We have no where near sufficient starting depth to make the playoffs in a 162 game season with regular extra innings and predictable injuries.

 

We don’t have a sufficient pipeline either! Pitching, pitching, Pitching, don’t take our foot off the gas!!

[Eat My Shatkins]

1. Ryu

2. Stripling

3. Pearson

4. Ray

5. Roark

 

6. Kay (stretching out?)

7. Hatch (stretching out?)

8. Merryweather (stretching out?)

9. Zeuch

10. Murray

11. Manoah

12. Woods-Richardson

 

Staying as relievers? -> Borucki, Yamaguchi, Murphy, Reid-Foley, Perez

 

I think that's who Atkins stated they were planning to stretch out and who they weren't.

 

Definitely would like to see a potential top half of the rotation starter added, to push the rest down a notch. Bauer is the most obvious choice. They could also go the trade route, maybe Lance Lynn? I'd still also like to see a reclamation project type guy signed with big potential to be a dark horse. Kluber or Archer for example, but I'm thinking Ray might be that guy now.

[Jimcanuck]

Are we assuming Thornton is unavailable for 2021?

[L54]

I follow Jays Journal on FB. Not sure why, garbage analysis and commentary. I think it used to be a Josh Donaldson fan page and changed.

 

Anyway, todays article, now that we signed Ray we have taken care of our pitching depth and can concentrate on other things. BS analysis . We have no where near sufficient starting depth to make the playoffs in a 162 game season with regular extra innings and predictable injuries.

 

We don’t have a sufficient pipeline either! Pitching, pitching, Pitching, don’t take our foot off the gas!!

 

Most of those guys are complete dolts

[Jays24]

We have very good depth, so I think it makes sense to pay up for a high end starter like Bauer. With guys like Stripling, Hatch, Kay, Murphy, and Zeuch outside of the projected rotation, I'm less concerned about depth than in years past.

 

There isn't a need to waste money on a guy like Quintana or Richards when we should be developing our young pitchers and upgrading other areas.

 

Totally agree. We should have a lot of great options in Buffalo if we need to bring guys up. I am very high on Merryweather but seems like he just can't stay healthy.

 

Really want Bauer and if its 5 or less years, id be disappointed if it doesn't happen...Assuming that he was willing to come here of course.

[RobinThicc]

They need a top end this guy offseason.

[saskjayfan]

Are we assuming Thornton is unavailable for 2021?

 

I hope they move him to the bullpen.

[Deadpool]

I follow Jays Journal on FB. Not sure why, garbage analysis and commentary. I think it used to be a Josh Donaldson fan page and changed.

 

Anyway, todays article, now that we signed Ray we have taken care of our pitching depth and can concentrate on other things. BS analysis . We have no where near sufficient starting depth to make the playoffs in a 162 game season with regular extra innings and predictable injuries.

 

We don’t have a sufficient pipeline either! Pitching, pitching, Pitching, don’t take our foot off the gas!!

 

They're not wrong that we have pitching depth, but they are wrong that we should concentrate on other things now. I'd like to see at least one more medium-large pitching acquisition. I don't think we necessarily NEED one of the better pitchers on the market, but it sure as s*** would be nice to get one. If we don't get one of the top tier guys, we DEFINITELY need someone from the second tier.

[Abomination]

I wonder what Jon Gray would cost as a trade target? Alternatively, I wonder if the Nats will look to cut some salary and potentially make Scherzer available (1 expensive year left on his contract, especially with the signing bonus that's still left).

[Pendleton]

The depth is sufficient, but we are lacking the quality at the front end.

[Laika]

People saying the depth is fine and the Jays only need one front of the rotation arm are not appreciating the risk profile of the current depth chart.

 

This is NOT good depth behind a couple of bankable mid rotation horses. This is NOT good depth behind a Ace and the old reliable Tanner Roark.

 

Ryu - injury risk, doesn’t chew innings regardless

Pearson - injury and performance risk

Ray - sucked in 2020

Roark - sucked so hard in 2020 he doesn’t deserve a rotation spot

Stripling - sucked in 2020

Kay - sucked in 2020

Hatch - wasn’t even necessarily a good reliever last year, at least by some peripherals

Borucki - see Hatch’s note. Troubling walk rate. Also an injury risk.

Merryweather - there are multiple nails in his SP coffin now, right?

Murphy - prospect with big injury risks and other issues (delivery history)

Zeuch - zoinks....

Thornton - obvious note

Murray/Manoah/Woods-Richardson - not realistic to count on them

 

I like most of the above players and think some of them will be good, even in 2020, but c’mon. Nobody should want to just be rolling out Stripling, Roark, and Ray as uncontested starters right out of spring training. In an ideal world those three are competing for starts behind Ryu, a healthy Pearson, a pitcher about as good as Ryu, and someone decent and reliable.

 

In an ideal world Toronto has the luxury of not trying to keep all of Merryweather, Borucki, and Hatch as starters. Some of them might benefit from role clarity

 

A lot of the young SP guys who saw time in 2020 deserve for the sake of their development several turns in AAA as regular starters

[Pendleton]

People saying the depth is fine and the Jays only need one front of the rotation arm are not appreciating the risk profile of the current depth chart.

 

This is NOT good depth behind a couple of bankable mid rotation horses. This is NOT good depth behind a Ace and the old reliable Tanner Roark.

 

Ryu - injury risk, doesn’t chew innings regardless

Pearson - injury and performance risk

Ray - sucked in 2020

Roark - sucked so hard in 2020 he doesn’t deserve a rotation spot

Stripling - sucked in 2020

Kay - sucked in 2020

Hatch - wasn’t even necessarily a good reliever last year, at least by some peripherals

Borucki - see Hatch’s note. Troubling walk rate. Also an injury risk.

Merryweather - there are multiple nails in his SP coffin now, right?

Murphy - prospect with big injury risks and other issues (delivery history)

Zeuch - zoinks....

Thornton - obvious note

Murray/Manoah/Woods-Richardson - not realistic to count on them

 

I like most of the above players and think some of them will be good, even in 2020, but c’mon. Nobody should want to just be rolling out Stripling, Roark, and Ray as uncontested starters right out of spring training. In an ideal world those three are competing for starts behind Ryu, a healthy Pearson, a pitcher about as good as Ryu, and someone decent and reliable.

 

In an ideal world Toronto has the luxury of not trying to keep all of Merryweather, Borucki, and Hatch as starters. Some of them might benefit from role clarity

 

A lot of the young SP guys who saw time in 2020 deserve for the sake of their development several turns in AAA as regular starters

 

I think you've mentioned enough names to fill out the back end of a rotation/roster, and top of the AAA rotation/injury depth. That's all I meant by sufficient depth, we aren't lacking in "MLB ready" arms.

 

In order to hang with the best I think we are two legit front end guys short, we are lacking an ace and another starter upon whom we could bank on as much as Ryu or ideally more due to the concerns you outlined. From there back I would argue we have sufficient arms to fill out the depth chart.

Edited November 8, 2020 by Pendleton

[Jimcanuck]

I think you've mentioned enough names to fill out the back end of a rotation/roster, and top of the AAA rotation/injury depth. That's all I meant by sufficient depth, we aren't lacking in "MLB ready" arms.

 

In order to hang with the best I think we are two legit front end guys short, we are lacking an ace and another starter upon whom we could bank on as much as Ryu or ideally more due to the concerns you outlined. From there back I would.argue we have sufficient arms to fill out the depth chart.

 

I've been saying for a year now the Jays won't move into true contender status until both Pearson and SWR are in MLB as effective starters. Yes, I am expecting SWR to be at least a mid rotation guy.

 

Could happen as soon as 2022.

 

Of course the Jays could go nuts and overpay for Bauer and Springer and advance the timeline.

[G-Snarls]

I think you've mentioned enough names to fill out the back end of a rotation/roster, and top of the AAA rotation/injury depth. That's all I meant by sufficient depth, we aren't lacking in "MLB ready" arms.

 

In order to hang with the best I think we are two legit front end guys short, we are lacking an ace and another starter upon whom we could bank on as much as Ryu or ideally more due to the concerns you outlined. From there back I would argue we have sufficient arms to fill out the depth chart.

 

A serious IL stint for Ryu and it sure doesn't look pretty

[Laika]

I think you've mentioned enough names to fill out the back end of a rotation/roster, and top of the AAA rotation/injury depth. That's all I meant by sufficient depth, we aren't lacking in "MLB ready" arms.

 

In order to hang with the best I think we are two legit front end guys short, we are lacking an ace and another starter upon whom we could bank on as much as Ryu or ideally more due to the concerns you outlined. From there back I would argue we have sufficient arms to fill out the depth chart.

 

My comments were directed more towards Grant, who was essentially sub-posting me by saying that money would be "wasted" on guys like Quintana and Richards, if it comes to that. I think the team would still benefit quite a bit from an SP4 type, regardless of whether or not they can reel in a big top-of-the-rotation fish.

 

Depth is a function of quantity and quality. The Jays do have more names of some quality than they have had in some years, which is good.

[Grant77]

My comments were directed more towards Grant, who was essentially sub-posting me by saying that money would be "wasted" on guys like Quintana and Richards, if it comes to that. I think the team would still benefit quite a bit from an SP4 type, regardless of whether or not they can reel in a big top-of-the-rotation fish.

 

Depth is a function of quantity and quality. The Jays do have more names of some quality than they have had in some years, which is good.

 

Wasted is perhaps not the proper word, but we would certainly be better off spending our payroll elsewhere.

 

I think that we still need to find out what we have in our young pitchers. The contention window for this team isn't so narrow that we need to plug our holes with mediocre veterans instead of giving our promising young pitching a shot.

 

Instead of spending on a guy like Quintana, we could upgrade from a Travis Shaw to a DJ LeMahieu, give or take a couple million. We could perhaps add a guy like Brad Hand to our relief mix for a similar salary.

 

Upgrading a weakness and not blocking prospects is always more favourable than upgrading a relative strength and also blocking prospects. If we can do both then that's great, but our focus should not be on harming the development of our young pitchers for a second consecutive year.

[Daniel Labude]

1. Bauer

2. Pearson

3. Ryu

4. Ray

5. Borucki/Merryweather/Hatch/Murray/Stripling/Manoah/Roark

[Jimcanuck]

1. Bauer

2. Pearson

3. Ryu

4. Ray

5. Borucki/Merryweather/Hatch/Murray/Stripling/Manoah/Roark

 

If the Jays land Bauer, you can be sure they will add one more starter and a high leverage reliever.

[saskjayfan]

If the Jays land Bauer, you can be sure they will add one more starter and a high leverage reliever.

 

I agree....

 

Bauer

Ryu

Paxton

Ray

Pearson

 

Trevor Rosenthal added to the pen..go Jays!

 

ps....winter sucks!

[Spanky99]

If the Jays land Bauer, you can be sure they will add one more starter and a high leverage reliever.

 

Or would they wait to see what's available at the deadline?

[glory]

I think the Jays are definitely adding two more SPs. Best case it’s Bauer and then a cheaper option. More likely it will be two mid tier options (ex. Odorizzi/Paxton and Walker). Either way, I can’t see them entering the season counting on 2 of Roark/Stripling/Pearson as guaranteed rotation arms.

[Jays24]

I agree....

 

Bauer

Ryu

Paxton

Ray

Pearson

 

Trevor Rosenthal added to the pen..go Jays!

 

ps....winter sucks!

 

Even if you replace Paxton with a slightly lesser pitcher, that could be one of the best rotations in baseball.

 

Just don't think the Jays will use both Roark and Stripling out of the pen. I see one of them being our 5th starter unfortunately. Hope I'm wrong.

[Brownie19]

Even if you replace Paxton with a slightly lesser pitcher, that could be one of the best rotations in baseball.

 

Just don't think the Jays will use both Roark and Stripling out of the pen. I see one of them being our 5th starter unfortunately. Hope I'm wrong.

 

Ross Stripling was a very good pitcher until 2020. As good or better than Ray, Walker or Roark have ever been. Hopefully whatever the f*** was wrong with him can be corrected as he'll probably end up as our 3rd or 4th best starter if he returns to the pitcher he was in 2018 and 2019.

 

The issue is probably having too many reclamation projects without a ton of depth to replace them if they flop. You also have to consider that Ryu is a major injury risk while Pearson may have innings limits. We will hopefully have the likes of Roark, Kay, Murphy, Hatch, Zeuch, etc. as our #6 through #10 starters (which isn't too bad), but I have to think that probably puts us out of the running for risky guys like Paxton, Kluber, Walker, etc. Obviously Bauer is a perfect fit (especially if he wants to start ever 4th day), while I'd have to think someone like Quintana would be on the list.

[Farm]

Suzuno please, Asia is the way to go this year, especially with depressed market values. I would expect that a "riskier" market from Korea/Japan would be more undervalued than other ones.

[saskjayfan]

Even if you replace Paxton with a slightly lesser pitcher, that could be one of the best rotations in baseball.

 

Just don't think the Jays will use both Roark and Stripling out of the pen. I see one of them being our 5th starter unfortunately. Hope I'm wrong.

 

The most important part of my post was winter sucks! I spent three hours shoveling my driveway yesterday and late in the day when I finally thought I could get off my crescent I backed my vehicle out got stuck and 10 minutes later after help from my neighbors they helped me get my vehicle unstuck and I just drove back into my garage..lol.

[Jays24]

The most important part of my post was winter sucks! I spent three hours shoveling my driveway yesterday and late in the day when I finally thought I could get off my crescent I backed my vehicle out got stuck and 10 minutes later after help from my neighbors they helped me get my vehicle unstuck and I just drove back into my garage..lol.

 

Its 22 degrees here today in sunny Toronto. Feels like Miami right now after reading your post lol

[Grant77]

The most important part of my post was winter sucks! I spent three hours shoveling my driveway yesterday and late in the day when I finally thought I could get off my crescent I backed my vehicle out got stuck and 10 minutes later after help from my neighbors they helped me get my vehicle unstuck and I just drove back into my garage..lol.

 

Canada is so weird. I live in a city that gets more snow (on average) than yours and it was a record breaking 20 C here for the last 3 days.