Offseason Roster Thread (2020-2021)

[max silver]

We're not getting DJL. The Jays refusal to denounce rumors means that agents always add the Jays as a potential buyer to drive up the prices from other teams. They don't need any infielders. They can use a big-bat outfielder (Spring), SP and RP. Infield is pretty much their biggest area of strength.

 

Does DJL make us better? Sure.

But assuming we have a fixed amount of $ to spend, I'm confident we could add more wins spending it on pitching.

 

The Jays absolutely need an infielder. I get the impression you are unaware of what an immense black hole of suck the third base position has been the last 2 years for the Jays. In 2020 the Jays received exactly 0 FWAR from the third base position. Add in 2019 and it's barely better, totalling a horrific 0.1 FWAR from third base for the 2 years combined. The addition doesn't need to be splashy like a Lemahieu or Lindor, but there is a wide selection of mid range free agent and trade targets available that will upgrade the club to a large degree.

[Carlos Danger]

Nationals are apparently making K Boom available.. He can play 3rd and SS and I think way too early to give up on him. He still has a high OBP.

 

He would be a good fit for us..... Trade for Kieboom and Lindor/Story, sign Springer and another SP or use some excess resulting from the aforementioned three to trade for pitching.

[glory]

We're not getting DJL. The Jays refusal to denounce rumors means that agents always add the Jays as a potential buyer to drive up the prices from other teams. They don't need any infielders. They can use a big-bat outfielder (Spring), SP and RP. Infield is pretty much their biggest area of strength.

 

Does DJL make us better? Sure.

But assuming we have a fixed amount of $ to spend, I'm confident we could add more wins spending it on pitching.

 

Agreed about DJ not signing with the Jays. I'd be shocked if any team is offering 5 years (which would take him to age 37), and the team he actually wants to sign with is already offering 4, so it's only a matter of time before they agree to a number. The Jays definitely need an infielder, though. Vlad isn't (/better not be) playing 3B so they'll need someone there at the very least.

[Laika]

It's very possible the Blue Jays don't feel like they need a big infielder. If Martin and Groshans looked mature at the alternate site, both could start in AA or AAA. I know it sounds aggressive but we don't know what any teams are thinking about prospect development right now. We might see Toronto just get a one year option for 2B or 3B later in the offseason

[RobinThicc]

It's very possible the Blue Jays don't feel like they need a big infielder. If Martin and Groshans looked mature at the alternate site, both could start in AA or AAA. I know it sounds aggressive but we don't know what any teams are thinking about prospect development right now. We might see Toronto just get a one year option for 2B or 3B later in the offseason

 

I think theres too much smoke around Lindor for there not to be fire. It seems like they do want to add a couple of elite players (Springer and Lindor).

[Laika]

I think theres too much smoke around Lindor for there not to be fire. It seems like they do want to add a couple of elite players (Springer and Lindor).

 

There is Blue smoke around literally every player.

[RobinThicc]

There is Blue smoke around literally every player.

 

Sure, but a lot of reliable insiders are making it seem like Lindor (and Springer) are a lot more of a realistic than DJL or Realmuto. Really only Passan recently and Shi have made it seem like DJL might be someone they really want, whereas practically everyone has connected them to Lindor and Springer.

[Carlos Danger]

I wonder if the Jays strategy is just to drive up the cost on DJL and keep the Yankees out of their other lanes they are prioritizing.. I think no chance he goes to Toronto and they know that also deep down. If DJL does go to the Jays, we have serious competition on the Lindor front since the Yankees will go hard after him.

 

I would rather have a 26/27 yrs old Lindor and sign an extension then a 30/31 yr old DJL for 5 years.

[Spanky99]

I think theres too much smoke around Lindor for there not to be fire. It seems like they do want to add a couple of elite players (Springer and Lindor).

 

My bad, I'm dumn.

[Spanky99]

I wonder if the Jays strategy is just to drive up the cost on DJL and keep the Yankees out of their other lanes they are prioritizing.. I think no chance he goes to Toronto and they know that also deep down. If DJL does go to the Jays, we have serious competition on the Lindor front since the Yankees will go hard after him.

 

I would rather have a 26/27 yrs old Lindor and sign an extension then a 30/31 yr old DJL for 5 years.

 

Of course that's a ploy, lots of teams or agents(leak info) do it.

[Spanky99]

It's very possible the Blue Jays don't feel like they need a big infielder. If Martin and Groshans looked mature at the alternate site, both could start in AA or AAA. I know it sounds aggressive but we don't know what any teams are thinking about prospect development right now. We might see Toronto just get a one year option for 2B or 3B later in the offseason

 

This topic was brought up earlier on At The Letters. Interesting.

[G-Snarls]

It's very possible the Blue Jays don't feel like they need a big infielder. If Martin and Groshans looked mature at the alternate site, both could start in AA or AAA. I know it sounds aggressive but we don't know what any teams are thinking about prospect development right now. We might see Toronto just get a one year option for 2B or 3B later in the offseason

 

It's a viable option though not my preference. If they can't get Kim or Lindor etc then signing a stop gap for 2B or 3B like Didi or Turner is definitely an option.

[saskjayfan]

Agreed about DJ not signing with the Jays. I'd be shocked if any team is offering 5 years (which would take him to age 37), and the team he actually wants to sign with is already offering 4, so it's only a matter of time before they agree to a number. The Jays definitely need an infielder, though. Vlad isn't (/better not be) playing 3B so they'll need someone there at the very least.

 

 

https://jaysjournal.com/2020/12/21/blue-jays-skipper-gives-vote-of-confidence-to-vladimir-guerrero-jr/

 

It certainly could just be lip service, but I think Vlad will play some 3rd this year, but I expect him to get a lot of time at DH as well.

[G-Snarls]

https://jaysjournal.com/2020/12/21/blue-jays-skipper-gives-vote-of-confidence-to-vladimir-guerrero-jr/

 

It certainly could just be lip service, but I think Vlad will play some 3rd this year, but I expect him to get a lot of time at DH as well.

 

Then Tellez plays mostly 1B and some DH?

[saskjayfan]

I wonder if the Jays strategy is just to drive up the cost on DJL and keep the Yankees out of their other lanes they are prioritizing.. I think no chance he goes to Toronto and they know that also deep down. If DJL does go to the Jays, we have serious competition on the Lindor front since the Yankees will go hard after him.

 

I would rather have a 26/27 yrs old Lindor and sign an extension then a 30/31 yr old DJL for 5 years.

 

Just to play devil's advocate. 5 and 100 probably gets you DJL. DJ's hit tool is his primary attribute. He will be 36 in the final year of that deal, which could be front loaded. He was on pace for 7+ win season last year.

 

Francisco Lindor plays next year at 27 and then probably wants 10 and 300. His will be 38 in the last year of that deal. He primarily derives his value from defense. He's 18% above average with the bat, but not elite. How is the defense going to play from ages 32 to 38?

 

We will likely have to give up Gurriel to get Lindor. Gurriel is still getting better and is 3 win player with upside being paid 5 mil and we would also lose a prospect as well.

 

I think I'd rather have DJ and Gurriel, the prospect plus additional payroll flexibility over Lindor.

[saskjayfan]

Then Tellez plays mostly 1B and some DH?

 

Tellez is a solid 1st baseman. His defensive metrics have him as a pretty close to average first baseman defensively. I would have no worries if he takes the field most days. Rowdy came to camp fitter last year too, so some of that belief is that he continues that trend. If he reverts and puts on weight that would complicate the issue.

[Brownie19]

Tellez is a solid 1st baseman. His defensive metrics have him as a pretty close to average first baseman defensively. I would have no worries if he takes the field most days. Rowdy came to camp fitter last year too, so some of that belief is that he continues that trend. If he reverts and puts on weight that would complicate the issue.

 

I know it was a SSS, but his BB% and K% improved significantly last year (much closer to his minor league numbers when he had a lot of success).

[z3r0s]

Just to play devil's advocate. 5 and 100 probably gets you DJL. DJ's hit tool is his primary attribute. He will be 36 in the final year of that deal, which could be front loaded. He was on pace for 7+ win season last year.

 

Francisco Lindor plays next year at 27 and then probably wants 10 and 300. His will be 38 in the last year of that deal. He primarily derives his value from defense. He's 18% above average with the bat, but not elite. How is the defense going to play from ages 32 to 38?

 

We will likely have to give up Gurriel to get Lindor. Gurriel is still getting better and is 3 win player with upside being paid 5 mil and we would also lose a prospect as well.

 

I think I'd rather have DJ and Gurriel, the prospect plus additional payroll flexibility over Lindor.

 

I knew that didn't sound right. DJ is like 32 1/2 right now, so the final year of the deal he would be playing at around 37.

[Laika]

It's a viable option though not my preference. If they can't get Kim or Lindor etc then signing a stop gap for 2B or 3B like Didi or Turner is definitely an option.

 

Neither of them are actual stop gaps. Turner might take 3 years to sign, same with Didi. This DJLM rumour mill is turning into the blob because New York is at the centre of it but Gregorius is 1.5 years younger and pretty damn good... he could get about as much $$ as DJ when the dust settles.

 

Stop gap might be someone like Gyorko, Brad Miller, Kike Hernandez, Hanser Alberto, maybe Marwin Gonzalez, maybe Maikel Franco wants to sign a one year deal, maybe the market for Cesar Hernandez never develops and he is cheap. Sexy list, right?

[G-Snarls]

Tellez is a solid 1st baseman. His defensive metrics have him as a pretty close to average first baseman defensively. I would have no worries if he takes the field most days. Rowdy came to camp fitter last year too, so some of that belief is that he continues that trend. If he reverts and puts on weight that would complicate the issue.

 

Yes. He's better than a platoon player.

 

The s***** thing is we probably get the max wins in 2021 with:

 

1. A new 3rd baseman (either a new aquistion there or bringing in a new middle IF and moving Biggio over)

2. Tellez at mostly 1B/some DH

3. Vlad mostly at DH/some 1B

 

But they clearly don't want to do that any time soon and I hate the thought of having to keep Vlad off the field at his young age. But it's a HUGE problem if Vlad can't learn to play 3rd or 1st adequately.

[saskjayfan]

I knew that didn't sound right. DJ is like 32 1/2 right now, so the final year of the deal he would be playing at around 37.

 

Next year DJ will be playing in his age 32 season. He will be playing his age 36 season the final year of a 5 year deal. You're not wrong though. He's an old 32! The mid year cutoff for age is something to consider. If he was born a few weeks earlier he would be considered as playing his age 33 season this year.

[saskjayfan]

Yes. He's better than a platoon player.

 

The s***** thing is we probably get the max wins in 2021 with:

 

1. A new 3rd baseman (either a new aquistion there or bringing in a new middle IF and moving Biggio over)

2. Tellez at mostly 1B/some DH

3. Vlad mostly at DH/some 1B

 

But they clearly don't want to do that any time soon and I hate the thought of having to keep Vlad off the field at his young age. But it's a HUGE problem if Vlad can't learn to play 3rd or 1st adequately.

 

I understand what you're saying. In an ideal world Vlad would have a position and maybe a skinnier Vlad can hold a position better next year.

 

Still fat Vlad....I mean Agustus Gloop Vlad put up a wRC+ of 115 at the age of 21 last year. A fitter Vlad can develop into a 40% better than league average hitter and if he can't hold down a position and he's simply a primary DH that takes the field from time to time, that would be OK for me.

[Deadpool]

Yes. He's better than a platoon player.

 

The s***** thing is we probably get the max wins in 2021 with:

 

1. A new 3rd baseman (either a new aquistion there or bringing in a new middle IF and moving Biggio over)

2. Tellez at mostly 1B/some DH

3. Vlad mostly at DH/some 1B

 

But they clearly don't want to do that any time soon and I hate the thought of having to keep Vlad off the field at his young age. But it's a HUGE problem if Vlad can't learn to play 3rd or 1st adequately.

 

Vlad's age, and the fact that he appears to have been seriously humbled last year, give me hope that he can at least be a BETTER third baseman than he's shown, but we'd better get used to seeing him out there, 'cause if Charlie Montoyo is saying publicly that Vladdy is going to play third, Vladdy is going to play third. Chuckles isn't the kinda guy to keep his cards close to his vest.

[Orgfiller]

Vlad's age, and the fact that he appears to have been seriously humbled last year, give me hope that he can at least be a BETTER third baseman than he's shown, but we'd better get used to seeing him out there, 'cause if Charlie Montoyo is saying publicly that Vladdy is going to play third, Vladdy is going to play third. Chuckles isn't the kinda guy to keep his cards close to his vest.

 

It seems hard for Vlad to be worse at 3B than he previously showed, considering what he showed was the worst defensive 3B in the league. Being better than that doesn't mean that much, he could be better and still be terrible. For someone like Bichette, you're hoping he goes from below average to average, for Vlad you're hoping he goes from completely awful to being playable or something you can live with, which might be an even bigger jump value wise. He's honestly just a terrible defender, I think him looking lost at 1B on routine pop ups said as much.

[Jimcanuck]

Jays have watched Vlad play and develop at 3B for what, 3-4 years in the minors. They have a good handle on his capabilities when he isn't out of shape.

 

Kim and his versatility is such a great fit. If Vlad fails at 3B, no problemo with Kim on the roster.

[wilko]

The Jays absolutely need an infielder. I get the impression you are unaware of what an immense black hole of suck the third base position has been the last 2 years for the Jays. In 2020 the Jays received exactly 0 FWAR from the third base position. Add in 2019 and it's barely better, totalling a horrific 0.1 FWAR from third base for the 2 years combined. The addition doesn't need to be splashy like a Lemahieu or Lindor, but there is a wide selection of mid range free agent and trade targets available that will upgrade the club to a large degree.

 

[G-Snarls]

Lots of minor league signings around the league this week but not one major FA signing or trade yet in a while now...

[Jimcanuck]

Lots of minor league signings around the league this week but not one major FA signing or trade yet in a while now...

 

Too much uncertainty about 2021 perhaps. Teams are skittish.

[glory]

The odds of Vlad becoming an average 3B defensively, much less a good one, are so small that I'm not sure what the point of putting him there in 2021 would be aside from appeasing his ego. Not every player has to be versatile and play multiple positions. It doesn't look like he's going to provide much defensive or BsR value in his career, so just put him in a less demanding defensive position that he might be average at over time (1B) and make sure to maximize his greatest strength (bat). The latter is way more important to the team's success over the next 5 years.

 

I guess we'll know based on who the Jays pick up this winter. If it's someone with a proven track record (ex. Turner), then Vlad playing 3B is probably out of the question aside from emergency situations. If it is someone like Kim, who has no track record and is more risky as a player, then they can be a bit more flexible in their decision making.

[Jimcanuck]

Vlad's arm is elite though. Strong and accurate. Even if he is below average at fielding the ball at 3B, that arm could elevate him to average overall.

 

Anyway if he comes to camp in good shape, we will see what a difference it makes.