Offseason Roster Thread (2020-2021)

[jerb]

 

theScore

@theScore

 

Report: Blue Jays aggressively beginning free-agency process. https://thesco.re/3jJqDpW

[Spanky99]

MLBTR has us taking LeMahieu at 4/68 17AAV, Jake Odorizzi 3/39 13 AAV and basically in on every other player...

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2020/11/mlb-free-agent-predictions-2021.html

 

Kluber at 1/12 looks damn good to me.

Edited November 2, 2020 by Spanky99

[Grant77]

MLBTR has us taking LeMahieu at 4/68 17AAV, Jake Odorizzi 3/39 13 AAV and basically in on every other player...

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2020/11/mlb-free-agent-predictions-2021.html

 

Yes please for LaMahieu. He's an absolutely excellent fit and we could conceivably run out a top 5 offense with him.

 

Biggio

LeMahieu

Bichette

Hernandez

Guerrero

Gurriel

Tellez

Grichuk

Jansen

 

Two of the best OBP guys in the game, followed by 6 consecutive players projected for 20+ home runs would be so amazing.

[G-Snarls]

Yes please for LaMahieu. He's an absolutely excellent fit and we could conceivably run out a top 5 offense with him.

 

Biggio

LeMahieu

Bichette

Hernandez

Guerrero

Gurriel

Tellez

Grichuk

Jansen

 

Two of the best OBP guys in the game, followed by 6 consecutive players projected for 20+ home runs would be so amazing.

 

Plus he gets subtracted from the Yankees lineup

 

Double win

[Laika]

MLBTR has us taking LeMahieu at 4/68 17AAV, Jake Odorizzi 3/39 13 AAV and basically in on every other player...

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2020/11/mlb-free-agent-predictions-2021.html

 

Kluber at 1/12 looks damn good to me.

 

Kluber is cooked.

[Laika]

Yes please for LaMahieu. He's an absolutely excellent fit and we could conceivably run out a top 5 offense with him.

 

Biggio

LeMahieu

Bichette

Hernandez

Guerrero

Gurriel

Tellez

Grichuk

Jansen

 

Two of the best OBP guys in the game, followed by 6 consecutive players projected for 20+ home runs would be so amazing.

 

Swap out Jansen for Kirk and it might be a top 1 offense

[Spanky99]

Kluber is cooked.

 

You're cooked.

[glory]

DJ would be my first choice as an acquisition. Hard contact, doesn’t strike out, draws walks, can play anywhere. Only downside is age (on a long term deal) but skill set is perfect for this team on just about every level. I don’t think he leaves the Yankees, and I think he ends up getting a bigger deal than MLBTR is predicting, but who knows what the market will look like.

[mellowgold]

Lindor please. Our infield defense is atrocious. Plus having an impact switch hitting bat would be nice. When is the last time we had that?

[z3r0s]

4 years isn't a scary term either even if the decline comes in.

[Farm]

We need Ha-Seong Kim...

[Spanky99]

We need Ha-Seong Kim...

 

He'd be nice.

[G-Snarls]

Lindor please. Our infield defense is atrocious. Plus having an impact switch hitting bat would be nice. When is the last time we had that?

 

[G-Snarls]

It's been a while

[G-Snarls]

4 years isn't a scary term either even if the decline comes in.

 

Lemahieu also has the type of skill set that ages well

[Grant77]

It's been a while

 

I'm trying to think of someone since Jose Cruz Jr and can't come up with a name unless you want to count Jose Reyes.

[G-Snarls]

I'm trying to think of someone since Jose Cruz Jr and can't come up with a name unless you want to count Jose Reyes.

 

Yes actually, Reyes for sure. Somehow didnt think of him.

[Brownie19]

I wonder if we're out there looking specifically to add players who handle high velocity fastballs.

[Ray]

Full list of minor league free agents: https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/full-list-of-2020-2021-milb-free-agents/

 

Blue Jays have 18:

 

Deiferson Barreto, Andy Burns, Patrick Cantwell, Ryan Dull, James Dykstra, Conor Fisk, Gabriel Guerrero, Mac James, Jesus Lopez, Mike Nittoli, Juan Nunez, Norberto Obeso, Willy Ortiz, Connor Overton, Tom Pannone, Luis Silva, Mitchell Walding, Forrest Wall

 

I guess Pannone & Forrest Wall are the ones of note.

[glory]

I would be shocked if we sign any of the QO guys. And we would have to go minimum 4 years on LeMahieu, maybe 5, to get him to leave NY.

 

Out of all the QO players, DJ is probably the most realistic one assuming all it will take is an overpay to get him and he doesn't have a strict preference on location. Bauer will have a huge market, as will Springer, and Realmuto doesn't make sense as a target since Jansen might have some upside left and if not, Kirk is right behind him. Stroman is out for obvious reasons, and Gausman probably accepts it. If there is any year for the Jays not to put much weight on the QO, it is this one.

[Terminator]

Why is everyone on LeMahieu's nuts and not Semien?

 

Semien has out WAR'd him 2 out of the 3 past seasons (the only one he didn't was in the shortened 60 game season), plays a more premium position, is 2 years younger, has a higher career wRC+ and has no qualifying offer attached to him. Plus, Semien has a pretty easy to spell name and LeMahieu has some French name that is f***ed.

 

I guess LeMahieu has better exit velocity and Semien's kind of sucks but Semien has a more ideal launch angle and LeMehieu is in Eric Hosmer/Vlad Guerrero territory.

 

From what I gather, Semien costs probably half the money that LeMahieu does and if that's the case, Semien would be a no-brainer.

[max silver]

Why is everyone on LeMahieu's nuts and not Semien?

 

Semien has out WAR'd him 2 out of the 3 past seasons (the only one he didn't was in the shortened 60 game season), plays a more premium position, is 2 years younger, has a higher career wRC+ and has no qualifying offer attached to him. Plus, Semien has a pretty easy to spell name and LeMahieu has some French name that is f***ed.

 

I guess LeMahieu has better exit velocity and Semien's kind of sucks but Semien has a more ideal launch angle and LeMehieu is in Eric Hosmer/Vlad Guerrero territory.

 

From what I gather, Semien costs probably half the money that LeMahieu does and if that's the case, Semien would be a no-brainer.

 

Semien has only had one above average offensive season in his entire career, whereas LeMahieu has transformed himself into a star during his time in New York.

[Laika]

Why is everyone on LeMahieu's nuts and not Semien?

 

Semien has out WAR'd him 2 out of the 3 past seasons (the only one he didn't was in the shortened 60 game season), plays a more premium position, is 2 years younger, has a higher career wRC+ and has no qualifying offer attached to him. Plus, Semien has a pretty easy to spell name and LeMahieu has some French name that is f***ed.

 

I guess LeMahieu has better exit velocity and Semien's kind of sucks but Semien has a more ideal launch angle and LeMehieu is in Eric Hosmer/Vlad Guerrero territory.

 

From what I gather, Semien costs probably half the money that LeMahieu does and if that's the case, Semien would be a no-brainer.

 

Fangraphs thinks Semien will cost more than LeMahieu. Either player helps Toronto a lot IMO but I have some personal fears with Semien. He was a shite defender until recently and has been a below average hitter in the vast majority of his seasons.

 

DJLM's last two offensive seasons have been so fundamentally sound that his bat inspires a good deal of confidence going forward, confidence that I don't have in any specific part of Semien's game.

[Orgfiller]

No one seems to be talking about the elephant in the room behind how much DJLM benefited from Yankee Stadium. His home/away splits are gigantic, he's god in Yankee Stadium and DJ LeSlapHitter everywhere else. Now obviously he's no stranger to extreme home/away splits being a lifelong Coors guy before this, but it should really be taken into account how much slapping balls into the short porch boosted his offensive production, and the Rogers Centre/Sahlen/Dunedin (in case 2021 season is not played north of the border) do not feature a cheaty short porch that the team can build an offense around.

 

His HR over the last two seasons:

Home - 27

Away - 9

[Orgfiller]

For comparison and reference, noted cheater George Springer has fairly identical home/away splits, and he actually has generally performed slightly better on the road than at home.

[Laika]

No one seems to be talking about the elephant in the room behind how much DJLM benefited from Yankee Stadium. His home/away splits are gigantic, he's god in Yankee Stadium and DJ LeSlapHitter everywhere else. Now obviously he's no stranger to extreme home/away splits being a lifelong Coors guy before this, but it should really be taken into account how much slapping balls into the short porch boosted his offensive production, and the Rogers Centre/Sahlen/Dunedin (in case 2021 season is not played north of the border) do not feature a cheaty short porch that the team can build an offense around.

 

His HR over the last two seasons:

Home - 27

Away - 9

 

I don't think there's an elephant.

 

2019 wOBA - .375 (517 batted balls)

xwOBA - .384

 

2020 wOBA - .422 (175 batted balls)

xwOBA - .355

 

extremely good xwOBA figures in 2016 and 2017 too. Even if leaving Yankee stadium will decrease the HR totals a bit, those are probably just turning into doubles.

[Spanky99]

No one seems to be talking about the elephant in the room behind how much DJLM benefited from Yankee Stadium. His home/away splits are gigantic, he's god in Yankee Stadium and DJ LeSlapHitter everywhere else. Now obviously he's no stranger to extreme home/away splits being a lifelong Coors guy before this, but it should really be taken into account how much slapping balls into the short porch boosted his offensive production, and the Rogers Centre/Sahlen/Dunedin (in case 2021 season is not played north of the border) do not feature a cheaty short porch that the team can build an offense around.

 

His HR over the last two seasons:

Home - 27

Away - 9

 

Didn't he lead the MLB in hard hit pct? I'd rather Springer if they go big positionally.

[max silver]

I don't think there's an elephant.

 

2019 wOBA - .375 (517 batted balls)

xwOBA - .384

 

2020 wOBA - .422 (175 batted balls)

xwOBA - .355

 

extremely good xwOBA figures in 2016 and 2017 too. Even if leaving Yankee stadium will decrease the HR totals a bit, those are probably just turning into doubles.

 

Home/away splits are pretty dramatic though, for 2020 home/away split was 256/98 WRC+, for 2019 it's less extreme but still shows a big discrepancy at 157/116 WRC+. I would imagine that will factor into the kind of offers that he ultimately receives as it seems his offense is largely a function of Yankee Stadium.

[Laika]

Home/away splits are pretty dramatic though, for 2020 home/away split was 256/98 WRC+, for 2019 it's less extreme but still shows a big discrepancy at 157/116 WRC+. I would imagine that will factor into the kind of offers that he ultimately receives as it seems his offense is largely a function of Yankee Stadium.

 

Most players have home/away splits. I don't care about them very much in any given season let alone a very shortened one like 2020.

 

xwOBA does not care about park though. It's just EV, LA, and speed I think. Completely neutral.

 

Completely disagree with his offense being a function of Yankee stadium. He should be fine anywhere.

[Brownie19]

Semien has only had one above average offensive season in his entire career, whereas LeMahieu has transformed himself into a star during his time in New York.

 

Reminds me a lot of LeMahieu before the Yankees signed him to be honest...only Semien can play SS.