Offseason Roster Thread (2020-2021)

[max silver]

Most players have home/away splits. I don't care about them very much in any given season let alone a very shortened one like 2020.

 

xwOBA does not care about park though. It's just EV, LA, and speed I think. Completely neutral.

 

Completely disagree with his offense being a function of Yankee stadium. He should be fine anywhere.

 

Perhaps the xwOBA of a batted ball doesn't change no matter the stadium it is hit in, but the actual on field result of a lazy high fly ball to right field in a bandbox like Yankee Stadium vs a bigger park like Fenway are going to be dramatically different. He gained an extra 67 points wOBA vs his expected stats, no way the short porch in Yankee stadium wasn't a direct contributor.

 

For what it's worth I'm definitely not advocating against a LeMahieu sigining for the Jays, he'd be an amazing addition. At worst he'd be an absolute Yankee killer due to how well he's hit at Yankee Stadium the last few seasons.

[RobinThicc]

Lindor please. Our infield defense is atrocious. Plus having an impact switch hitting bat would be nice. When is the last time we had that?

 

Lindor would be too good to be true.

 

The f***ing dodgers probably end up trading for him

[Orgfiller]

Lindor would be too good to be true.

 

The f***ing dodgers probably end up trading for him

 

The Dodgers already have their own Lindor situation in Corey Seager.

[saskjayfan]

Didn't he lead the MLB in hard hit pct? I'd rather Springer if they go big positionally.

 

Springer is going to cost a lot more and an extra year or two. I'd rather sign DJ and put the savings into pitching.

[Orgfiller]

Springer is going to cost a lot more and an extra year or two. I'd rather sign DJ and put the savings into pitching.

 

Could the reason for that be that Springer is a year younger and better at everything than LeMahieu?

[Spanky99]

Springer is going to cost a lot more and an extra year or two. I'd rather sign DJ and put the savings into pitching.

 

Why not Springer and pitching? I'd be happy either way but... Springer's a boss!

[saskjayfan]

Why not Springer and pitching? I'd be happy either way but... Springer's a boss!

 

yeah, but we need a 3rd baseman for 2 or 3 years. We could possibly get Turner for 2 DJ for 3 years and save 8 to 10 mil. Springer could cost 25+ for 5 or 6 years. We can non tender Shaw. Grichuk would be difficult to move. We need money for pitching, both in the rotation and a proven bullpen piece.

 

If we were going to up payroll by 40 springer would leave us 15 for pitching. I'd rather have DJ or Turner and 25 for pitching, or 35 for pitching if we were going to bump payroll by 50 mil. I mean if we non tender Shaw we're just over 60 mil active roster. If we were going to get to 140 on the active payroll, Springer might make more sense. It depends what the budget is.

[Spanky99]

As my best buddy JFL would say... *many balls in the air at this moment*.

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2020/11/offseason-outlook-toronto-blue-jays-12.html

 

Offseason Outlook: Toronto Blue Jays

By Mark Polishuk | November 2, 2020 at 6:10pm CDT

 

After three losing seasons, the Blue Jays both topped the .500 mark and returned to the playoffs in 2020. Now that the corner has seemingly been turned on the team’s rebuild, could a full-fledged push towards contention be on the way?

 

Guaranteed Contracts

 

Hyun Jin Ryu, SP: $60MM through 2023

Randal Grichuk, OF: $29MM through 2023

Lourdes Gurriel Jr., OF: $13.4MM through 2023

Tanner Roark, SP: $12MM through 2021

Shun Yamaguchi, RP: $3.175MM through 2021

Rafael Dolis, RP: $1.5MM through 2021

Arbitration-Eligible Players

 

Note on arb-eligible players: this year’s arbitration projections are more volatile than ever, given the unprecedented revenue losses felt by clubs and the shortened 2020 schedule. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, who developed our arbitration projection model, used three different methods to calculate different projection numbers. You can see the full projections and an explanation of each if you click here, but for the purposes of our Outlook series, we’ll be using Matt’s 37-percent method — extrapolating what degree of raise a player’s 2020 rate of play would have earned him in a full 162-game slate and then awarding him 37 percent of that raise.

 

A.J. Cole – $800K

Teoscar Hernandez – $2.7MM

Travis Shaw – $4.5MM

Ross Stripling – $2.7MM

Non-tender candidates: Shaw

Option Decisions

 

Chase Anderson, SP: $9.5MM club option, $500K buyout (declined)

Rafael Dolis, RP: $1.5MM club option (exercised)

Free Agents

 

Anderson, Taijuan Walker, Ken Giles, Matt Shoemaker, Robbie Ray, Jonathan Villar, Joe Panik, Anthony Bass, Caleb Joseph, Wilmer Font

A 32-28 record under the wholly unique circumstances of the 2020 season doesn’t exactly mean that the Jays can suddenly start thinking about the World Series. That said, this year’s results were definitely a positive development, and indicative of this roster’s potential — so much of the team’s young core is either still early in their MLB careers or not even in the majors yet, but the Blue Jays have already shown that they’re able to win.

 

It makes for a potentially fascinating offseason in Toronto, especially considering that the Jays might be one of the few teams who could have the ability to spend. More will be known on this front once Jays management meets with the Rogers Communications ownership group for a budget meeting later this month, but on paper, the Blue Jays would seem to have some extra payroll capacity. The team has roughly $81.25MM in committed salary for 2021, and less than $37MM on the books in both 2022 and 2023, with only three players (Hyun Jin Ryu, Randal Grichuk, Lourdes Gurriel Jr.) under contract beyond the coming season.

 

Since the Jays came into 2020 with a pre-pandemic payroll of around $93.2MM, there is some room for GM Ross Atkins to maneuver even if ownership doesn’t okay much or any new spending. The club already carved out some extra space by declining Chase Anderson’s $9.5MM club option, and Travis Shaw’s projected arbitration salary makes him a non-tender candidate given his lack of production last season.

 

Is another Ryu-esque signing in the cards? Atkins didn’t rule out the possibility, telling reporters last month that “I think we are in a position where we could add to this team with talent that is condensed in one player and a super high impact.” While Toronto is far from being the proverbial “one player away” from a championship, it seems plausible that the Jays could try to duplicate their 2019-20 offseason by making one big-ticket acquisition and then a few other, more moderately-priced pickups.

 

Pitching is the most obvious need for a club whose rotation was in flux for much of the season. Ryu and Tanner Roark were the only real constants, though Roark struggled in his first season in Toronto and now figures to slot into the back of the rotation. Ross Stripling also didn’t pitch well as a Blue Jay after being acquired from the Dodgers at the trade deadline, though after years of being shifted in and out of the Los Angeles rotation, Stripling should get a clear-cut chance at being a full-time starting pitcher in 2021. Nate Pearson battled some elbow problems and tossed only 18 innings in his rookie season, so while his prospect ceiling is very high, he can’t yet be counted upon as a front-of-the-rotation type.

 

Trent Thornton, Anthony Kay, T.J. Zeuch, and other young arms are on hand to compete for a starting job or provide depth, but adding certainly one and potentially two experienced starters would go a long way towards solidifying the starting staff. Reunions with free agents Taijuan Walker, Matt Shoemaker, Anderson, and Robbie Ray will be considered, with Walker likely to receive the most attention from other teams given how well he pitched in 2020, particularly after joining the Blue Jays after the trade deadline.

 

Walker did speak quite highly of his time with the Jays, noting that “they did such a great job of making us comfortable in Buffalo.” This could be an underrated factor in the team’s offseason planning, as pitchers like Walker or the other Jays free agents could be prioritized since they’re already familiar with conditions at Buffalo’s Sahlen Field. A decision on whether or not the Blue Jays will be able to play in Toronto in 2021 likely won’t be known for at least a few months, so external free agents might be wary of potentially spending a year at a hitter-friendly minor league ballpark.

 

Then again, that might be just the kind of thing that would appeal to an unconventional free agent like Trevor Bauer. Atkins and Jays president/CEO Mark Shapiro were part of the Cleveland front office that brought Bauer to the Indians back in December 2012, and while landing Bauer would be much more costly this time around, Bauer’s stated openness to shorter-term or even one-year contracts could make him a particular fit for the Jays. Such a contract would keep Bauer in the fold during the window of Ryu’s prime and still give the Blue Jays future payroll flexibility, while also allowing more time for Pearson, Kay, or Simeon Woods Richardson to develop.

 

Whether the Blue Jays are prepared to make quite that big a splash in pursuing Bauer remains to be seen, though given how aggressively the team went after pitching last offseason, it can’t be ruled out. If the Jays are allowed to stretch their payroll, that gives them a leg up on virtually every other team in baseball in this post-pandemic offseason, and puts Toronto in play for conceivably any free agent. A case can be made for the Jays to pursue the likes of Bauer, J.T. Realmuto or (as MLBTR did in our Top 50 Free Agents list) DJ LeMahieu, or perhaps rather than shop in the upper tier of the market, the Blue Jays could spread their money around in the second tier. If Bauer is to command upwards of $30MM in average annual value, that $30MM+ could also cover, say, Walker and Masahiro Tanaka in the rotation and Justin Turner at third base.

 

Besides free agents, the Jays could also look to acquire talent in a trade, especially if rival teams are more willing to unload quality players in the name of cost-cutting. Beyond just the obvious Cleveland connection with Shapiro and Atkins, Francisco Lindor is a player that would make some sense for the Jays, particularly since they have looked into acquiring him in the past. The Indians would certainly have a high asking price for even one year of Lindor, yet considering salary concerns just led the Tribe to cut ties with a valuable player in Brad Hand, getting Lindor’s salary off the books might be a bigger concern for Cleveland than fully maximizing a trade return.

 

Installing Lindor at shortstop for a year also solves the third base question, assuming Shaw is non-tendered — Bo Bichette would be moved off shortstop to play either third or second base, with Cavan Biggio handling the other position. Acquiring a position player on a shorter-term deal might be the optimal move for a Jays team that has Austin Martin and Jordan Groshans in the prospect pipeline, and seems mostly set around the diamond in the present. The core of Gurriel, Grichuk, and Teoscar Hernandez in the outfield, Danny Jansen behind the plate, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Rowdy Tellez as the first base/DH duo, Bichette at shortstop and Biggio at second base (or multiple positions) is solid from an offensive standpoint, but the Jays were one of the league’s weaker defensive teams.

 

Inserting a premium defender like Andrelton Simmons or Kolten Wong into the one open infield spot would certainly help in this regard, though if the Blue Jays wanted to go bigger, they could explore trading Grichuk or Tellez. Such moves would allow for the acquisition of a more traditional center fielder to patrol the outfield, or free up the DH spot so the Jays could keep some of their lesser defenders in the lineup.

 

As they did last offseason, it seems likely that the Jays will continue to target multi-position players, in order to upgrade a bench that didn’t provide much help when injuries arose during the season. Biggio is developing nicely as a super-utilityman, but getting another reliable player who can play several positions could be another path towards helping the defense, at least in a late-game capacity.

 

The Jays haven’t traditionally spent much on relief pitching under Atkins, and that strategy might continue this winter even though the bullpen didn’t post good numbers in 2020. Toronto relievers were asked to throw a lot of innings in support of the shaky rotation, so things could stabilize simply with a more normal workload, plus several good young arms (i.e. Jordan Romano, Thomas Hatch, Julian Merryweather) delivered strong results.

 

It’s possible the Jays don’t have a traditional closer at all next season, or if they do, Romano or Rafael Dolis could get more consideration than an external pitcher. But since the Jays will presumably look to add at least one veteran reliever, they could check into pitchers with past closing experience. As the Indians’ decision to decline Hand’s option might indicate, this could be a particularly volatile market for relief pitching, leaving the Blue Jays with many opportunities to acquire a significant bullpen piece at perhaps something of a bargain price.

 

There is no shortage of possibilities open to the Blue Jays this winter, making a team to watch both this winter and in 2021, when the young cornerstones and (presumably) some new additions could gather to again make the Jays postseason factors.

[Grant77]

I brought this up during the playoffs, but we never really discussed it.

 

How much would you give for Kris Bryant? Would you take him at all for that price?

 

If Shapiro believes in him, I wouldn't hate giving up a decent prospect like Moreno and exploring an extension.

[Jimcanuck]

I brought this up during the playoffs, but we never really discussed it.

 

How much would you give for Kris Bryant? Would you take him at all for that price?

 

If Shapiro believes in him, I wouldn't hate giving up a decent prospect like Moreno and exploring an extension.

 

Would be a huge immediate boost but to retain him after his 2022 walk year would require a lengthy and large $$ commitment. Would rather reserve those dollars to make sure the current core can be retained, and keep the prospect capital that could turn into cheap useful talent.

[Grant77]

Would be a huge immediate boost but to retain him after his 2022 walk year would require a lengthy and large $$ commitment. Would rather reserve those dollars to make sure the current core can be retained, and keep the prospect capital that could turn into cheap useful talent.

 

Are you against all major signings? Getting a guy like Springer or Bauer would lead to the same situation.

[Jimcanuck]

Are you against all major signings? Getting a guy like Springer or Bauer would lead to the same situation.

 

Without the loss of prospects. Don't agree with moving prospects to get a Bryant who will likely leave in 2 years.

 

No problem with signing a Springer. Cost is cash only and the salary can be structured to improve the chances of retaining the core later on.

[connorp]

Are you against all major signings? Getting a guy like Springer or Bauer would lead to the same situation.

 

If he has a good year Boras will be looking 7-8 years easy prob. If not 10.

Springer will prob be 5, Bauer also prob won’t be lengthy deal

 

Edit: thought Bryant was FA next year

[Grant77]

Without the loss of prospects. Don't agree with moving prospects to get a Bryant who will likely leave in 2 years.

 

No problem with signing a Springer. Cost is cash only and the salary can be structured to improve the chances of retaining the core later on.

 

I'd argue that the first round pick and the cost for Bryant may not be that different. You would also get an additional first round pick when Bryant leaves.

[saskjayfan]

ozuna is a year younger than springer, he doesn't have a pick attached to him and his AAV will be a fair amount less with one or 2 years less commitment than Springer. His exit velocity just jumps out. If we were going to sign an outfielder, I think I might prefer Ozuna.

[connorp]

ozuna is a year younger than springer, he doesn't have a pick attached to him and his AAV will be a fair amount less with one or 2 years less commitment than Springer. His exit velocity just jumps out. If we were going to sign an outfielder, I think I might prefer Ozuna.

 

I wouldn’t kick either of them out of bed, that’s for sure

 

Based on play I mean. No h**o:)

[max silver]

ozuna is a year younger than springer, he doesn't have a pick attached to him and his AAV will be a fair amount less with one or 2 years less commitment than Springer. His exit velocity just jumps out. If we were going to sign an outfielder, I think I might prefer Ozuna.

 

The Jays already have enough DH types masquerading as outfielders for Ozuna to make any sense.

[Spanky99]

ozuna is a year younger than springer, he doesn't have a pick attached to him and his AAV will be a fair amount less with one or 2 years less commitment than Springer. His exit velocity just jumps out. If we were going to sign an outfielder, I think I might prefer Ozuna.

 

Ozuna sucks defensively, what are you two talking about??

 

I wouldn’t kick either of them out of bed, that’s for sure

 

Based on play I mean. No h**o:)

 

Yer DuMn!!!

[saskjayfan]

The Jays already have enough DH types masquerading as outfielders for Ozuna to make any sense.

 

Use the money saved to pay for great pitching. Great pitching is the best defense anyways.

[jerb]

[Jimcanuck]

Bauer might be the best thing MLB has going right now.

[connorp]

Ozuna sucks defensively, what are you two talking about??

 

 

 

Yer DuMn!!!

 

How bad is Ozuna? I mean he’s got the potential to be a monster bat in Toronto. He’s got an arm anyway but I know there’s metrics showing him as negative defender but Fangraphs seems pretty harsh for 2020 considering he only played 20 games in the OF. In the 2 full seasons prior he rated almost neutral.

 

That said, I’d rather have Springer for sure

[glory]

Bauer trolling every fanbase but he’s a breath of fresh air for baseball. The off season is boring more often than not. At least Trev is engaging with fans and giving some anticipation/excitement for where he goes. More players should do this.

[saskjayfan]

Ozuna sucks defensively, what are you two talking about??

 

 

 

Yer DuMn!!!

 

Ozuna had that one really bad defensive highlight, which probably also killed his defensive statistics as well, but for his career he's decidedly average defensively. Springer isn't miles better than Ozuna defensively. If you look at outfielder jump that last 4 full seasons Ozuna edged out Springer in the rankings 2 of the 4 years and overall Springer was a tick above Ozuna, but both were very average.

 

I would want to move Grichuk if we made a move for either. I just like the shorter term and 7 or 8 mil per year discount you get with Ozuna and I feel like he might be the better offensive player over the next few years.

[Spanky99]

ozuna is a year younger than springer, he doesn't have a pick attached to him and his AAV will be a fair amount less with one or 2 years less commitment than Springer. His exit velocity just jumps out. If we were going to sign an outfielder, I think I might prefer Ozuna.

 

How bad is Ozuna? I mean he’s got the potential to be a monster bat in Toronto. He’s got an arm anyway but I know there’s metrics showing him as negative defender but Fangraphs seems pretty harsh for 2020 considering he only played 20 games in the OF. In the 2 full seasons prior he rated almost neutral.

 

That said, I’d rather have Springer for sure

 

Not a fit.

[max silver]

Ozuna had that one really bad defensive highlight, which probably also killed his defensive statistics as well, but for his career he's decidedly average defensively. Springer isn't miles better than Ozuna defensively. If you look at outfielder jump that last 4 full seasons Ozuna edged out Springer in the rankings 2 of the 4 years and overall Springer was a tick above Ozuna, but both were very average.

 

I would want to move Grichuk if we made a move for either. I just like the shorter term and 7 or 8 mil per year discount you get with Ozuna and I feel like he might be the better offensive player over the next few years.

 

Surely you must be trolling here to attempt to give Ozuna and Springer equal grades defensively. Ozuna grades out as average at best in the outfields easiest position, whereas Springer has been largely grading out as above average in the outfields hardest position.

[Spanky99]

Ozuna had that one really bad defensive highlight, which probably also killed his defensive statistics as well, but for his career he's decidedly average defensively. Springer isn't miles better than Ozuna defensively. If you look at outfielder jump that last 4 full seasons Ozuna edged out Springer in the rankings 2 of the 4 years and overall Springer was a tick above Ozuna, but both were very average.

 

I would want to move Grichuk if we made a move for either. I just like the shorter term and 7 or 8 mil per year discount you get with Ozuna and I feel like he might be the better offensive player over the next few years.

 

Oy Vey!

[Spanky99]

Holy duck... this race is crazy!

[saskjayfan]

Surely you must be trolling here to attempt to give Ozuna and Springer equal grades defensively. Ozuna grades out as average at best in the outfields easiest position, whereas Springer has been largely grading out as above average in the outfields hardest position.

 

I never said Springer didn't grade out better defensively. I said the upgrade wasn't enough for me to pay an older player an extra year or 2 and an extra 8 mil a year. These are subjective matters. Feel free to disagree. I don't think either should be our priority. We need starting pitching and bullpen support along with a 3rd baseman or a short stop. Those would be my priorities. I'm intrigued by Kim....maybe just because he's the wildcard.

[Spanky99]

I never said Springer didn't grade out better defensively. I said the upgrade wasn't enough for me to pay an older player an extra year or 2 and an extra 8 mil a year. These are subjective matters. Feel free to disagree. I don't think either should be our priority. We need starting pitching and bullpen support along with a 3rd baseman or a short stop. Those would be my priorities. I'm intrigued by Kim....maybe just because he's the wildcard.

 

He's simply stating CF(Team need) is simply an upgrade over a COF'er, seems simple to me.