Vlad Jr. to Indy Ball

[Laika]

Last night we got the full 2023/2024 Vlad experience! Good game.

 

- 400 ft flyout to CF, check

- double play, check

- bonehead play, check

- strikeout on an offspeed pitch way below the zone, check

- ugly swing on a 92 mph fastball off the plate, check

- watches a FB down the pipe in the clutch then grounds out meekly on a breaking ball on the corner, check

[wilko]

Vladtardo lost the game yesterday with that stupid fumble at 1b. I really wish they had the balls to bench him for a game.

[Spanky99]

Vladtardo lost the game yesterday with that stupid fumble at 1b. I really wish they had the balls to bench him for a game.

 

Corbin Carroll's batting 7th for the DBacks as he scuffles

[Brownie19]

Corbin Carroll's batting 7th for the DBacks as he scuffles

 

I've been monitoring that. Crazy to see Carroll struggle like this. I do think the Jays should consider something similar with Vlad.

[bluejaysinternNo5]

When is the last time Vlad hit lower than 4 in the line up?

[Terminator]

I know the AA Fanboys love to think about what could have been if he were our GM still but just imagine it. Vlad would be in year 3 of a 12 year 285 million dollar extension.

[Stangstag]

Corbin Carroll's batting 7th for the DBacks as he scuffles

 

That’s pretty shocking honestly. Dude was a beast last year and its only like 3 weeks into the season. Not saying its the wrong move, but its bold.

[Stangstag]

When is the last time Vlad hit lower than 4 in the line up?

 

2019 maybe??

[Stangstag]

I know the AA Fanboys love to think about what could have been if he were our GM still but just imagine it. Vlad would be in year 3 of a 12 year 285 million dollar extension.

 

Probably more like 12 years 200 but yeah. Atkins did well to wait on both Bo/Vlad

[BigCecil]

I know the AA Fanboys love to think about what could have been if he were our GM still but just imagine it. Vlad would be in year 3 of a 12 year 285 million dollar extension.

 

Or maybe locked up early and cheap long term like Albies and Acuna Jr? We'll never know.

 

Just glad no giant deals were negotiated with either at this point. I'm more interested now in how Shatkins handle upcoming walk years. Will they take the JD approach or go ninja like the Rays and shock the world?

[hanton]

I know the AA Fanboys love to think about what could have been if he were our GM still but just imagine it. Vlad would be in year 3 of a 12 year 285 million dollar extension.

 

why did you pick 12/285?

[Eat My Shatkins]

lol @ you guys bickering over the made up contract details, the point is thank the maker we don't have a fat 1 WAR first baseman locked up to a mega contract because he broke into the league with a 6 WAR season.

[Stangstag]

Or maybe locked up early and cheap long term like Albies and Acuna Jr? We'll never know.

 

Just glad no giant deals were negotiated with either at this point. I'm more interested now in how Shatkins handle upcoming walk years. Will they take the JD approach or go ninja like the Rays and shock the world?

 

We all know they probably SHOULD go the Rays route and trade both guys in the offseason (if the team struggles in the playoffs like they have)

 

But we know they’ll likely stand pat and lose both guys for draft picks.

 

Does Vlad even have any value if he repeats 2023?? Likely not.

 

With our luck, Bo and Vlad both have disastrous years and then we hold both because their value is 0.

[Stangstag]

lol @ you guys bickering over the made up contract details, the point is thank the maker we don't have a fat 1 WAR first baseman locked up to a mega contract because he broke into the league with a 6 WAR season.

 

Except he didn’t break into the league with a 6 WAR season. His numbers were very underwhelming (for the hype) at first. He didn’t breakout until his 3rd year in the majors. It was seen as maturing and progression at the time but now its seeming more and more likely that it was just an outlier.

[Laika]

Or maybe locked up early and cheap long term like Albies and Acuna Jr? We'll never know.

 

Just glad no giant deals were negotiated with either at this point. I'm more interested now in how Shatkins handle upcoming walk years. Will they take the JD approach or go ninja like the Rays and shock the world?

 

People can say what they want about the current teams but you have to give Atkins credit for keeping almost all flexibility in place for the post-Vlad and post-Bo era.

 

Only $ commitments after 2025 are:

Springer (one year, $24M)

Gausman (one year, $23M)

Berrios (three years, $18M, $25M, $25M)

Y.Rod (two years, $7M, $8M).

 

Team can basically reload with top tier free agent(s) after 2025, if they want, and they can certainly do so after 2026.

 

Compare this to the Yankees for example...

 

$ commitments are 2025:

Judge through 2030

Cole through 2028

Rodon through 2028

Stanton through 2027

DJLM for 2026

Stroman vesting option in 2026

[burlingtonbandit]

People can say what they want about the current teams but you have to give Atkins credit for keeping almost all flexibility in place for the post-Vlad and post-Bo era.

 

Only $ commitments after 2025 are:

Springer (one year, $24M)

Gausman (one year, $23M)

Berrios (three years, $18M, $25M, $25M)

Y.Rod (two years, $7M, $8M).

 

Team can basically reload with top tier free agent(s) after 2025, if they want, and they can certainly do so after 2026.

 

Compare this to the Yankees for example...

 

$ commitments are 2025:

Judge through 2030

Cole through 2028

Rodon through 2028

Stanton through 2027

DJLM for 2026

Stroman vesting option in 2026

 

The key for the Jays is really going to be if they can develop their prospects and have a few turn into low cost regulars so they can supplement them with a couple star FA otherwise they might be forced into a rebuild/retool for a year or 2. There's an argument that next season should be turned into a retool as rookies/young players developing/having growing pains at the MLB level and trying to win games can be tough simultaneously.

 

It also would reset the luxury tax which would give you more flexibility for the next competitive window. Not sure Rogers is going to continue running 240M payrolls for an 85 win team.

[BCZ]

Vlad is like one of those gold nuggets you pick up from the dirt and as you start to clean it you realize it's just petrified animal s***

[BCZ]

Vlad's comment on missing the ball "'I just missed the ball" - wow thanks for the insightful comment, champ.

[Masterbather]

Vlad's comment on missing the ball "'I just missed the ball" - wow thanks for the insightful comment, champ.

 

What is he supposed to say? That's literally what happened. If he was blinded by some sort of light or some sort of bug or debris hit him in the face at that moment or if his webbing broke, he would say that, but if it was just a flat out miss, what more can he say?

[Carlos Danger]

Vlad's comment on missing the ball "'I just missed the ball" - wow thanks for the insightful comment, champ.

 

He missed the ball because of poor foot work and bringing the glove across your face.

 

Yea I just missed the pitch for the 3rd strike. Well you weren't cocked and ready and not protecting the strike zone and guessing wrong.

 

Point is, 90% of the time at the MLB level there is something that predicated the miss or drop etc.

[Laika]

The key for the Jays is really going to be if they can develop their prospects and have a few turn into low cost regulars so they can supplement them with a couple star FA otherwise they might be forced into a rebuild/retool for a year or 2. There's an argument that next season should be turned into a retool as rookies/young players developing/having growing pains at the MLB level and trying to win games can be tough simultaneously.

 

It also would reset the luxury tax which would give you more flexibility for the next competitive window. Not sure Rogers is going to continue running 240M payrolls for an 85 win team.

 

Yes they need some of the prospects and first year players to become above average regulars

 

A few of them

[Olerud363]

Lyle Overbay at Rogers Center - .263 .347 .455

Adam Lind at Rogers Center - .279 .333 .474

Kendry Morales at Roger Center - .259 .323 .451

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. at Rogers Center - .257 .330 .446

 

Vlad beats none in average or slugging, but does barely beat Kendry in OPS.

[MikeM3]

There needs to be a decision soon because paying this guy 25m next year and then letting him walk seems like the worst option.

 

What is the order of best outcomes:

 

EXTEND for sweetheart deal. Breakout ensues.

 

Trade now to dumb team for something that becomes an asset.

 

Non-tender. Use money elsewhere.

 

Let him play it out next year and get 2 war or whatever. Then he walks.

[BTS]

There needs to be a decision soon because paying this guy 25m next year and then letting him walk seems like the worst option.

 

What is the order of best outcomes:

 

EXTEND for sweetheart deal. Breakout ensues.

 

Trade now to dumb team for something that becomes an asset.

 

Non-tender. Use money elsewhere.

 

Let him play it out next year and get 2 war or whatever. Then he walks.

 

If the rest of this season plays out like 2023 and April 2024 have, it's almost impossible to imagine Vlad back next year. Like, Ross would actually have to be a computer to watch another 5 months of this and then decide that the best path forward is to spend 25M on another season of it. A poorly-programmed computer.

[Eat My Shatkins]

I mean the dream scenarios for me include..

 

1. Somehow Vlad figures it out and goes on a tear, and Bo goes all 2022 on us. Leave the FO with some tough decisions to make next off season.

 

2. They scrape by and then next off season find a suitor that thinks they can fix Vlad and then trade him and Bo for some prospect capital. Sign Adames to a decent deal and also Soto to a mega deal. Graduate a bunch of the AAA guys an have 2 of 3 of them POP and then carry on with a strong pitching staff and an offense built around Soto, an actual MVP caliber bat.

[Olerud363]

I mean the dream scenarios for me include..

 

1. Somehow Vlad figures it out and goes on a tear, and Bo goes all 2022 on us. Leave the FO with some tough decisions to make next off season.

 

2. They scrape by and then next off season find a suitor that thinks they can fix Vlad and then trade him and Bo for some prospect capital. Sign Adames to a decent deal and also Soto to a mega deal. Graduate a bunch of the AAA guys an have 2 of 3 of them POP and then carry on with a strong pitching staff and an offense built around Soto, an actual MVP caliber bat.

 

I have zero doubt that Jays will make a very competitive offer to Soto and be a finalist. After what happened with Ohtani I doubt we get as far as anyone tweeting a signing is imminent, but I really believe we can get Soto an extra 5 or 10 million a year from the Yankees by being in it to the end, so push the Yankees payroll up I guess. That's really the best case scenario and why not... get the Yankees more into the luxury tax.

 

Best case scenario for Vlad is simply a dignified release in November. Try to get him up to .250 with 20 homers and 90 rbis so it isn't completely embarassing and he can think of himself as still a star as he goes onto his next destination (where I have no doubt he will be a massive star).

[Olerud363]

If the rest of this season plays out like 2023 and April 2024 have, it's almost impossible to imagine Vlad back next year. Like, Ross would actually have to be a computer to watch another 5 months of this and then decide that the best path forward is to spend 25M on another season of it. A poorly-programmed computer.

 

It's been obvious where this is headed since late 2022. And it is kindof sad and is mostly just the flaw in the arbitration system where player gets payed massively too much for an outlier pre-arb3.

 

It's just a mess with the raises built in. Ironically Vlad didn't get paid all that right after the big 2021... just got like on the Juan Soto arb compatible list. His salary is going to go something like 8, 15, 21, 25 in 4 arb years, with WAR 3, 1, 1, 1 or something... lol.

 

Much more problematic to for a player like Vlad who can put up 1 WAR with a .265 .330 .440 year and 95 rbis, as compared to a .230 .300 .380 10 homer 45 rbi 1 WAR guy with baserunning and defense.

[burlingtonbandit]

It's been obvious where this is headed since late 2022. And it is kindof sad and is mostly just the flaw in the arbitration system where player gets payed massively too much for an outlier pre-arb3.

 

It's just a mess with the raises built in. Ironically Vlad didn't get paid all that right after the big 2021... just got like on the Juan Soto arb compatible list. His salary is going to go something like 8, 15, 21, 25 in 4 arb years, with WAR 3, 1, 1, 1 or something... lol.

 

Much more problematic to for a player like Vlad who can put up 1 WAR with a .265 .330 .440 year and 95 rbis, as compared to a .230 .300 .380 10 homer 45 rbi 1 WAR guy with baserunning and defense.

 

The system screws players over way more than anything. For every Vlad that gets paid more, theres 3 or 4 players who get underpaid a lot so teams/owners aren't going to want to change the system.

 

Baseball players get screwed more than any other sport for getting paid based on what they are worth. NHL entry level deals are 3 years and then you're getting paid market value, NBA players its 4 years or less. MLB its 6/7 years and you don't even make the majors right away. Not to mention pitchers can be great for 1/2 years early on, get hurt and really never get paid for the value they provided.

[Olerud363]

The system screws players over way more than anything. For every Vlad that gets paid more, theres 3 or 4 players who get underpaid a lot so teams/owners aren't going to want to change the system.

 

Baseball players get screwed more than any other sport for getting paid based on what they are worth. NHL entry level deals are 3 years and then you're getting paid market value, NBA players its 4 years or less. MLB its 6/7 years and you don't even make the majors right away. Not to mention pitchers can be great for 1/2 years early on, get hurt and really never get paid for the value they provided.

 

I wonder if there is a way to renegotiate so arb doesn't have this phony baked in service time escalation.

 

Some system where Arb is basically 50% market value but it doesn't escalate each year. So Vlad might actually have the same total pay but it would go 20, 15, 12, 8 instead of the other way around.

 

Maybe the owners wouldn't like it because they all of a sudden would have to pay a guy massive amount after 1 good year. However system should be designed that over the arb years it works out to the same amount as it does now, but more tied to performance.

 

And a guy like Vlad could go up to 20 after something like his 2021, but also the system should be so he goes back down to 10 or less if he becomes average again.

 

Vlad still gets his reward for 2021, and gets it right away, but suffers if he isn't consistent.

[Omar]

I mean the dream scenarios for me include..

 

1. Somehow Vlad figures it out and goes on a tear, and Bo goes all 2022 on us. Leave the FO with some tough decisions to make next off season.

 

2. They scrape by and then next off season find a suitor that thinks they can fix Vlad and then trade him and Bo for some prospect capital. Sign Adames to a decent deal and also Soto to a mega deal. Graduate a bunch of the AAA guys an have 2 of 3 of them POP and then carry on with a strong pitching staff and an offense built around Soto, an actual MVP caliber bat.

 

Option one isn't a tough decision at all. If Vlad goes on a tear then there is no better time to trade him while he still has value..

Edited April 25, 2024 by Omar