A look at the brief history of Mark Shapiro's Blue Jays, till now and moving forward

[intentional wok]

It's funny you put the Justin Smoak signing as a footnote. It's a pretty bad f*** up.

 

I think it was defensible at the time since when has a slugger's market ever cratered like this? Jays easily could have ended up with no one to play 1st. I think ensuring your squad has as many actual players on it as possible before entering a weak FA market is fine.

 

Whether they let Smoak become a sunk cost that blocks better acquisitions is a different story though. Probably no way to prove it since not landing another 1B could be attributed to "no one wants to come here".

 

Good thread.

 

Idiots of the forum: remember when you ran this guy of the board for no good reason?

 

I don't really know this Twisted feller at all or why he got pitchforked out of town but I'd absolutely vote for him as best newcomer if I took part in the board popularity votes.

[Carp12]

I think it was defensible at the time since when has a slugger's market ever cratered like this? Jays easily could have ended up with no one to play 1st. I think ensuring your squad has as many actual players on it as possible before entering a weak FA market is fine.

 

Whether they let Smoak become a sunk cost that blocks better acquisitions is a different story though. Probably no way to prove it since not landing another 1B could be attributed to "no one wants to come here".

 

 

 

I don't really know this Twisted feller at all or why he got pitchforked out of town but I'd absolutely vote for him as best newcomer if I took part in the board popularity votes.

 

 

 

 

It's actually pretty easy to find someone to play first and have the production smoak has

[intentional wok]

It's actually pretty easy to find someone to play first and have the production smoak has

 

...which still means they'd have had to do free agent shopping and still saved themselves the effort.

[glory]

I actually hope the reason for signing Smoak was because they see something in his numbers or swing or something that indicates they think he can breakout. Even if they are wrong in that case, at least they'd have some logic behind it. Signing him because they wanted a warm body at first is a pretty bad reason for an extension.

 

Still, if that's their worst move, and it looks like it is so far, then that's not bad at all.

[KingKat]

I actually hope the reason for signing Smoak was because they see something in his numbers or swing or something that indicates they think he can breakout. Even if they are wrong in that case, at least they'd have some logic behind it. Signing him because they wanted a warm body at first is a pretty bad reason for an extension.

 

Still, if that's their worst move, and it looks like it is so far, then that's not bad at all.

 

When AA originally acquired Smoak, he said it was a move driven by the analytics department. Smoak makes very hard contact. That's probably the main reason he keeps getting employed despite middling results.

[Rusty_Savage]

It's funny you put the Justin Smoak signing as a footnote. It's a pretty bad f*** up.

 

It's a two year deal worth 8 million. It's not as bad as some Make it out to be

[HERPDERP]

It's a two year deal worth 8 million. It's not as bad as some Make it out to be

 

that $8 million could have been used been used partially or wholly towards a free agent signing that could have ended up in TO, like Cecil.

[Pendleton]

When AA originally acquired Smoak, he said it was a move driven by the analytics department. Smoak makes very hard contact. That's probably the main reason he keeps getting employed despite middling results.

 

Yeah even a couple years later when discussing the extension, Atkins way saying that he believes Smoak's upside exceeds his current production, likely for the same reason (hard contact). He's 29 though, at some point soon he either needs to put it together or he winds up a AAAA bat that leaves you wanting more.

[Brownie19]

Yeah even a couple years later when discussing the extension, Atkins way saying that he believes Smoak's upside exceeds his current production, likely for the same reason (hard contact). He's 29 though, at some point soon he either needs to put it together or he winds up a AAAA bat that leaves you wanting more.

 

You mean like Steve Pearce did?

[Rusty_Savage]

that $8 million could have been used been used partially or wholly towards a free agent signing that could have ended up in TO, like Cecil.

 

This FO isn't going to over pay for anyone though. They could have afforded Cecil but weren't going to go above their valuations. Smoak at 8 million over two years wouldn't and shouldn't be a hi derance moving forward

[Santoki]

the subreddit is always bad

 

it's like the bottom 10% of this board got scraped off and found a new home on reddit

 

The funny part is through the bad years of 2013-2015 (first half) that place was always a beacon of optimism and anything negative said about the team/management got you downvoted.

[KingKat]

This FO isn't going to over pay for anyone though. They could have afforded Cecil but weren't going to go above their valuations. Smoak at 8 million over two years wouldn't and shouldn't be a hi derance moving forward

 

The problem with that argument is that Smoak himself is an overpayment and I don't mean in terms of his real or imagined production but simply in terms of what he'd fetch in the market. In the current market, he'd struggle to find employment much less get what he got. Of course, the market on his skill set has cratered since he signed but pretty much everyone thought it was an overpayment back then too just not as egregious as it's become. Which isn't to say that back then I thought overpaying for Smoak was a big deal. I really didn't and I'm not going to throw the team under the bus now for misjudging the market. s*** happens. I'm just saying that the argument that they never overpay isn't true. I think it's part of the franchise m.o. to make low stakes over-payments for security blankets. I think the Chavez trade was another example of this. They got f*** nothing out of Chavez except the security of knowing they had a guy who could make starts. After dealing Chavez, they arguably overpaid for Feldman for the exact same reason. These deals end up looking bad because you can't exactly put a WAR value on having guys that in an ideal world you don't use but I understand why they do them and why they make sense in the big picture.

[Laika]

The funny part is through the bad years of 2013-2015 (first half) that place was always a beacon of optimism and anything negative said about the team/management got you downvoted.

 

Just the section of the fanbase that can't help but love AA's fool-hardy GM style.

 

Shapiro and Atkins' rational, objective, patient approach must be the biggest wet blanket ever lmao.

[Laika]

This FO will succeed because they value all their assets highly and are insanely risk averse. Soon we'll have Jose Ramirez's and Tyler Naquins (hopefully some Klubers and Carrascos too) popping up out of nowhere just because our FO will never trade a prospect with a pulse.

 

The only question is whether it'll take 2 years or 10.

 

The one potential fault with Shatkins FO is that they might be TOO risk averse. Humans are risk-averse by nature and it's essentially a cognitive flaw in many contexts.

 

Although Cleveland's operation in 2016, particularly the deadline period, shows that in the right situation short term risks will be made.

[Brownie19]

I don't care what anyone says, the Swisher and Bourn signings have to be at least 1% traumatizing for them. Those 2 players were slam dunk signings. Completely logical and in the context of those CLE teams, they made a lot of sense. And both players absolutely turned to s*** as soon as they signed those contracts.

 

Have to speculate whether they were both on PED's and stopped taking that risk as soon as the cashed in.

[Stangstag]

I don't care what anyone says, the Swisher and Bourn signings have to be at least 1% traumatizing for them. Those 2 players were slam dunk signings. Completely logical and in the context of those CLE teams, they made a lot of sense. And both players absolutely turned to s*** as soon as they signed those contracts.

 

Yeah. I actually feel bad for Shapiro that those signings never worked out. I think that was the first time Cleveland actually went out and spent money on some solid players, and it turned out worse than anybody could have imagined.

[Laika]

I don't care what anyone says, the Swisher and Bourn signings have to be at least 1% traumatizing for them. Those 2 players were slam dunk signings. Completely logical and in the context of those CLE teams, they made a lot of sense. And both players absolutely turned to s*** as soon as they signed those contracts.

 

Absolutely. Those were great signings that didn't work at all. Kind of like if Edwin absolutely stinks in Cleveland.

 

I really wanted Swisher back then.

[Terminator]

Yeah I liked both of those signings at the time.

 

Another FA signing that reminds me of those is Chone Figgins. I wanted him bad back in the day but as soon as Seattle signed him his numbers tanked.

[TheHurl]

Blue Bird Banter poll. I'm not sure what is more surprising the result or that BBB has 4000 hits

 

http://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2017/1/8/14204542/poll-time-do-you-approve-of-the-job-mark-shapiro-and-ross-atkins-are-doing

 

Do you approve of the job Mark Shipiro and Ross Atkins are doing?

 

15%

Approve

(610 votes)

27%

Neutral

(1093 votes)

59%

Disapprove

(2410 votes)

4113 votes total

More From Bluebird Banter

[KingKat]

Chone Figgins.

 

http://s2.quickmeme.com/img/49/498794749f1ab35f1868fc509391c6f875e514ae6857d2382deee16176442a1e.jpg

[Rusty_Savage]

Blue Bird Banter poll. I'm not sure what is more surprising the result or that BBB has 4000 hits

 

http://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2017/1/8/14204542/poll-time-do-you-approve-of-the-job-mark-shapiro-and-ross-atkins-are-doing

 

Do you approve of the job Mark Shipiro and Ross Atkins are doing?

 

15%

Approve

(610 votes)

27%

Neutral

(1093 votes)

59%

Disapprove

(2410 votes)

4113 votes total

More From Bluebird Banter

 

 

I was one of the 610

[reedjohnsonfan]

Blue Bird Banter poll. I'm not sure what is more surprising the result or that BBB has 4000 hits

 

http://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2017/1/8/14204542/poll-time-do-you-approve-of-the-job-mark-shapiro-and-ross-atkins-are-doing

 

Do you approve of the job Mark Shipiro and Ross Atkins are doing?

 

15%

Approve

(610 votes)

27%

Neutral

(1093 votes)

59%

Disapprove

(2410 votes)

4113 votes total

More From Bluebird Banter

 

What's so surprising about the results? More recent events are likely to influence these types of polls.

 

It's not a stretch to say the offseason has been poor, from a fan's point of view.

[Boxcar]

What's so surprising about the results? More recent events are likely to influence these types of polls.

 

It's not a stretch to say the offseason has been poor, from a fan's point of view.

 

That's true. Excellent signings like Steve Pearce won't be appreciated by the average dumb fan.

 

Which is exactly why GMs should never care what fans think.

[Rusty_Savage]

The problem with that argument is that Smoak himself is an overpayment and I don't mean in terms of his real or imagined production but simply in terms of what he'd fetch in the market. In the current market, he'd struggle to find employment much less get what he got. Of course, the market on his skill set has cratered since he signed but pretty much everyone thought it was an overpayment back then too just not as egregious as it's become. Which isn't to say that back then I thought overpaying for Smoak was a big deal. I really didn't and I'm not going to throw the team under the bus now for misjudging the market. s*** happens. I'm just saying that the argument that they never overpay isn't true. I think it's part of the franchise m.o. to make low stakes over-payments for security blankets. I think the Chavez trade was another example of this. They got f*** nothing out of Chavez except the security of knowing they had a guy who could make starts. After dealing Chavez, they arguably overpaid for Feldman for the exact same reason. These deals end up looking bad because you can't exactly put a WAR value on having guys that in an ideal world you don't use but I understand why they do them and why they make sense in the big picture.

 

I get what your saying but I think they probably over estimated the first base/DH market. When they made the 4/80 offer to EE I'm sure they didn't think that would be enough. I could be totally off base on that assumption t that's the feeling I get.

 

I know it's a sss but when they signed Smoak wasn't he getting on base at something around .400 or something g like that? Now he did take a nose dive after that but maybe that has something to do with it. Either way, the Smoak signing really goes against what this risk adverse FO stands for and I think it probably will stand to be an outlier.

 

The only two transactions that I really dislike with Shapiro/Atkins are the Smoak and Chavez ones and neither are anything close to being crippling.

[Rusty_Savage]

What's so surprising about the results? More recent events are likely to influence these types of polls.

 

It's not a stretch to say the offseason has been poor, from a fan's point of view.

 

Some would have said the same thing about last season as well.

 

They made a more then fair offer to EE and a fair offer to Fowler. Bautista is still there but other then that there weren't too many realistic options in FA and theres not much in the upper minors that anyone would want for an impact player.

 

This is the price the team will have to pay for AA's trades at the 2015 trade deadline.

[TwistedLogic]

That's true. Excellent signings like Steve Pearce won't be appreciated by the average dumb fan.

 

Which is exactly why GMs should never care what fans think.

 

(Apologies in advance if reading this gives anybody chlamydia):

 

"But Happ, Biagini, Upton, Grilli, Benoit, Liriano etc were not designed to be impact moves that pushed them over the top.

They were gambles that worked out. Did they really foresee Happ's season when they got him? What about Biagini the

rule-5 pick? What about Grilli the 40-year-old being their main set-up man? In other words, they got lucky last season.

 

Those were all cheap-skate moves with the intention of staying just relevant in the division. I did not see an ernest

effort to push the team over the top while they are in the window of contention." - Satan, 2017

[reedjohnsonfan]

Some would have said the same thing about last season as well.

 

They made a more then fair offer to EE and a fair offer to Fowler. Bautista is still there but other then that there weren't too many realistic options in FA and theres not much in the upper minors that anyone would want for an impact player.

 

This is the price the team will have to pay for AA's trades at the 2015 trade deadline.

 

Fair enough, you're entitled to your opinion. Their clearly poor offseason is a reason why I do not support the current FO. They've made some good moves sure, but completely blew it during the last few months. To each their own.

[Brownie19]

That's true. Excellent signings like Steve Pearce won't be appreciated by the average dumb fan.

 

Which is exactly why GMs should never care what fans think.

 

Is Pearce works out, the casuals will claim Shatkins got lucky.

[burlingtonbandit]

Some would have said the same thing about last season as well.

 

They made a more then fair offer to EE and a fair offer to Fowler. Bautista is still there but other then that there weren't too many realistic options in FA and theres not much in the upper minors that anyone would want for an impact player.

 

This is the price the team will have to pay for AA's trades at the 2015 trade deadline.

 

Without AA's trades this team has already traded Donaldson, Martin, Estrada, Osuna and is in the middle of a rebuild.

 

Tulo trade was a big win with Reyes being a $50 Million loss and Hoffman having a bad debut. Norris and Boyd haven't really done much either. I don't get why people make it sound like the 2015 trades were bad, they were clear wins.

[Rusty_Savage]

Without AA's trades this team has already traded Donaldson, Martin, Estrada, Osuna and is in the middle of a rebuild.

 

Tulo trade was a big win with Reyes being a $50 Million loss and Hoffman having a bad debut. Norris and Boyd haven't really done much either. I don't get why people make it sound like the 2015 trades were bad, they were clear wins.

 

Where did I say they were bad? Why does everything have to be black and white with some people. The trades robbed us of any depth, mainly pitchers. Instead of Boyd, Norris and Hoffman being our depth starters we have Floyd, Bolsinger and Biagini.

 

My main point was that that in a poor FA class we have no prospects to trade because the majority were used up in 2015.