Yariel Rodríguez Is Making Changes, and the Blue Jays Should Take Notice

Baseball can change, and baseball can change fast. Just take a look at Yariel Rodríguez. In 2024, he was a key piece in the starting rotation, making 21 starts and pitching to a respectable 4.47 ERA. In 2025, he joined the bullpen and was dynamite in the first half, with a 2.47 ERA and a 25.6% K rate. He quickly became a key high-leverage reliever for the team.

But all that seems like a distant memory.

Yariel struggled in the second half. His velocity dropped, the strikeouts followed, and everything else (walks, WHIP, and ERA) went in the wrong direction. With that, the man who was relied on heavily in the first half of the season was left off the playoff roster and has since found himself much further down on the depth chart. In what was a surprising move this offseason, the Blue Jays outrighted him off the 40-man roster entirely, and he went unclaimed on waivers.

Rodríguez was then at a turning point in his career. He could accept that this was just the new normal and ride buses in the minor leagues for the remaining two years of his four-year deal, or he could get back to work and try to figure out how to get back to Toronto and help the big league team. So far in the minors, it looks like he chose the latter.

Through Buffalo’s first 21 games of the season, Rodríguez has appeared in six of them (prior to games on April 21), throwing 8.2 IP, and early returns look promising. He has a respectable 3.12 ERA, a 1.04 WHIP, and he’s holding opposing hitters to a .133 batting average against. Under the hood, the numbers look even better. He’s sporting a 21.7% swinging-strike rate, which has led to an exceptional 47.2% K rate. That’ll play.

Missing bats was never really the issue for Rodríguez; his problems had been a decline in velocity and in command. At first look, the walks are still elevated (13.9% BB rate), but he has been able to find the strike zone more consistently, currently sitting at 59% (95 of his 161 pitches have been strikes), which is up from the 56.5% he was at in the second half of 2025. As for his velocity? It's still down from the 96.1 mph he averaged in the first half of 2025, but in the second half, he sat around 95 mph, and that's right where he sits currently. 95 mph is still playable in the big leagues.

In a small sample, the results have been promising, but it's how he’s getting the results that really stands out. He’s completely changed his pitch mix, throwing his fastball significantly less and leaning more heavily on his splitter. Here’s the pitch mix in 2025:

And in 2026:

So far, the splitter has led to exceptional results. Rodríguez has thrown 50 splitters this year. Here is how they have performed:

• Whiffs - 20 (40% of all splitters)
• Balls - 21 (42%)
• Fouled off - 3 (6%)
• Called Strikes - 2 (4%)
• Balls in play - 3 (6%)
• Hits allowed - 1 (2%)

This has led to an outstanding 74.1% whiff rate (whiffs divided by total swings). There is certainly some small sample noise contributing to this, but you don't achieve high numbers like this by accident. For context, Trey Yesavage's splitter had a 57.1% whiff rate, and Brendon Little’s knuckle curve was at 55.6% in 2025. Major league hitters won't swing and miss as often as Triple-A bats, but still, Yariel Rodríguez has unlocked something with this wipeout pitch.

So, should the Blue Jays call him up?

Well, the simple answer is no. The small-sample change is encouraging, and with his revamped pitch mix, there is a legitimate case that he’s trending back to being a major league-calibre arm. But baseball is a game of adjustments; word of Yariel’s splitter will get around the league, and other lineups will adjust. This is similar to what happened to Little and his knuckle curve: He was striking out the world with that pitch, but other teams have learned to take it, and as a result, Little has been far less effective since. How Rodríguez reacts to these inevitable adjustments will give the Blue Jays a better sense of whether he’s ready to rejoin the team.

There is also the issue of the players in front of him. No one has warranted losing their job. For as injury-prone as the Blue Jays have been as a whole, the bullpen has largely remained intact. Jeff Hoffman has had his struggles, but even if he’s removed from the closer role, he’ll still be on the roster. Louis Varland, Braydon Fisher, and Tyler Rogers have been terrific. And the Blue Jays risk losing Tommy Nance (out of options) or Spencer Miles (Rule 5 pick) if they decide to demote them from the roster. There simply isn’t a spot for Rodríguez on the roster right now. 

There’s also the issue that he is no longer on the 40-man. Chase Lee is likely the first name called up if there is a need for a right-handed pitcher in the bullpen, and the impending returns of Yesavage, José Berríos, and Yimi García are likely going to have an effect on the bullpen as well. Barring any unforeseen circumstances, Yariel's return to the big leagues is not likely anytime soon.

For now, Yariel Rodríguez can’t focus on that. He just needs to focus on what he can control, and right now, that's what he’s been doing on the pitcher's mound. If the splitter continues to miss bats at an elite level, then the Blue Jays will not be able to ignore him, and the conversation quickly becomes not if he’ll rejoin the big league team, but when.