Jays the front runners for Melvin Upton

[John_Havok]

Like i said, the projections have him at 0.8 WAR/162 moving forward

 

I think all of these guys would be better buck for the money as short term investments than wasting $15 million pn Upton, assuming Padres eat $10 million, which i'm pretty skeptical of. I haven't included a few guys whose options might be picked up.

 

Rajai Davis

Austin Jackson

Jon Jay

Matt Joyce

Seth Smith

Franklin Gutierrez

 

Post that list's projections please. I'm curious

[Belliss101]

Honestly, i was always skeptical of AA's shortsightedness and not at all sad to see him go, and was so excited about Shapiro. However, the moves under his watch have been pretty poor. I like the fact that he's strengthened the front office and made investments in things like player performance and psych science but actual baseball moves have been pretty bad or just meh at best. I can't think of a single move that made me go "f*** Yeah!, that makes sense"

 

JA Happ seems to be working out. I actually screamed" F Yeah!" several times during his start yesterday

[nmrch]

Post that list's projections please. I'm curious

 

Rajai Davis: 1.3

Austin Jackson: 1.1

Jon Jay: 1.3

Matt Joyce: 2.4

Seth Smith: 1.8

Franklin Gutierrez: 1.1

 

The math was done off the top of my head, so they might be off by a bit. And with guys like Seth Smith and Matt Joyce its not completely fair to extrapolate their war over 162 because they've traditionally been used as platoon guys but the point is i don't think Upton is a guy we should go out of our way to invest in(with money or even throwaway c prospects) and i believe there are better value options in FA and via trade in the offseason.

[fatcowxlive]

I don't think Upton's the Center of the trade; he's likely going to be the salary dump that will only cost a c prospect in the deal. I think we're dealing more for a Cashner or a Ross type of pitcher as the focus of the trade to sure up the pen and possibly give us insurance when Sanchez goes to the pen and Hutch becomes the #5

[AdamGreenwood]

The only thing the team really needs is a couple decent relief pitchers, and a starter to replace Sanchez.

Trading for Upton, given his salary, and given that we have a decent outfield of Bautista/Saunders/Pillar makes no sense.

[Stangstag]

Rajai Davis: 1.3

Austin Jackson: 1.1

Jon Jay: 1.3

Matt Joyce: 2.4

Seth Smith: 1.8

Franklin Gutierrez: 1.1

 

The math was done off the top of my head, so they might be off by a bit. And with guys like Seth Smith and Matt Joyce its not completely fair to extrapolate their war over 162 because they've traditionally been used as platoon guys but the point is i don't think Upton is a guy we should go out of our way to invest in(with money or even throwaway c prospects) and i believe there are better value options in FA and via trade in the offseason.

 

Well isn't that convenient...

[baloojayz]

All this depth...Good move for next yr, hard to say it helps us this yr.

[baloojayz]

The only thing the team really needs is a couple decent relief pitchers, and a starter to replace Sanchez.

Trading for Upton, given his salary, and given that we have a decent outfield of Bautista/Saunders/Pillar makes no sense.

 

I like the idea of upgrading RF and moving JB to DH/1B. Just don't think Upton is the guy to do it. Nelson Cruz would be my target, was pissed we didn't try to sign him.

[fatcowxlive]

The only thing the team really needs is a couple decent relief pitchers, and a starter to replace Sanchez.

Trading for Upton, given his salary, and given that we have a decent outfield of Bautista/Saunders/Pillar makes no sense.

 

No way you can replace Sanchez quality. His replacement is currently pitching in AAA so all we need is 2 BP prices and a bench player. Starters are fine, especially if one of the starters is a Cashner or a Ross, someone that has started before. That way if we have an injury we can summon them or Chavez for spot starts.

[nmrch]

Well isn't that convenient...

 

don't be a douche

[John_Havok]

Rajai Davis: 1.3

Austin Jackson: 1.1

Jon Jay: 1.3

Matt Joyce: 2.4

Seth Smith: 1.8

Franklin Gutierrez: 1.1

 

The math was done off the top of my head, so they might be off by a bit. And with guys like Seth Smith and Matt Joyce its not completely fair to extrapolate their war over 162 because they've traditionally been used as platoon guys but the point is i don't think Upton is a guy we should go out of our way to invest in(with money or even throwaway c prospects) and i believe there are better value options in FA and via trade in the offseason.

 

Well, one of the counterpoints to your opinion would be that you just posted a list of backups or platoon targets with limited upside (Jon jay notwithstanding)whereas Upton is a full time player who, regardless of his 2016 season, still has a track record of skill and value as a full time player and it would not be ludicrous to see there a chance that he can recapture a portion of that. Everyone else on your list really does have limited upside because of their platoon roles and part time status. With Upton, there's actually a chance he could turn back the clock to a point. Not saying he's a 5 WAR candidate, but 2-3 isn't out of the realm of possibility, given that he's amassed 3.1 WAR over his last 600 PA.

 

You can call that recency bias, but completely discounting it because he was legitimately awful in 2013 and 2014 doesn't make any sense either.

[Dick_Pole]

And then before THAT, he was consistently above average for like six straight years, with a broad skill set.

Not much has really changed about his game ever. Strikeouts, power, speed, defense.

 

It's really not recency bias. In baseball, you need to weight the most recent information more heavily. Any projection system would.

 

We need to see the deal before passing judgment. If it's Upton at full salary, or near full salary, I don't like it at all.

 

This is the most reasonable position I've seen in this thread.

[fatcowxlive]

And then before THAT, he was consistently above average for like six straight years, with a broad skill set.

Not much has really changed about his game ever. Strikeouts, power, speed, defense.

 

It's really not recency bias. In baseball, you need to weight the most recent information more heavily. Any projection system would.

 

We need to see the deal before passing judgment. If it's Upton at full salary, or near full salary, I don't like it at all.

 

Would the argument change if Upton at full salary lowers the prospect asking price for a pitching arm included in the deal? Like if we're gunning for a Tyson Ross and instead of a B prospect we give up a c prospect (for example) if we take on Upton at full salary? Obviously this is all hypothetical and I'm jumping a lot of steps but if salary lowers prospect capital in the trade would you do it?

[L54]

Would the argument change if Upton at full salary lowers the prospect asking price for a pitching arm included in the deal? Like if we're gunning for a Tyson Ross and instead of a B prospect we give up a c prospect (for example) if we take on Upton at full salary? Obviously this is all hypothetical and I'm jumping a lot of steps but if salary lowers prospect capital in the trade would you do it?

 

Yes. I'd rather pay more in $$$ than in prospects.

 

Upton for another year and a FA to be in Cashner shouldn't be that expensive if you eat some salary.

[FrozenRopes]

Dude's good...

[burlingtonbandit]

Well, one of the counterpoints to your opinion would be that you just posted a list of backups or platoon targets with limited upside (Jon jay notwithstanding)whereas Upton is a full time player who, regardless of his 2016 season, still has a track record of skill and value as a full time player and it would not be ludicrous to see there a chance that he can recapture a portion of that. Everyone else on your list really does have limited upside because of their platoon roles and part time status. With Upton, there's actually a chance he could turn back the clock to a point. Not saying he's a 5 WAR candidate, but 2-3 isn't out of the realm of possibility, given that he's amassed 3.1 WAR over his last 600 PA.

 

You can call that recency bias, but completely discounting it because he was legitimately awful in 2013 and 2014 doesn't make any sense either.

 

Upton may be a fulltime player on SD but he should not be a fulltime player on a contending team. He's rocking a 85 wRC+ vs RHP this year and has a wRC+ of 95 his entire career.

[STLJaysFan]

If anything, he'll strengthen the bench and can be a late inning defensive replacement, pinch hitter, or pinch runner. At least the Jays aren't going after Kemp instead! Imagine him playing everyday on artificial turf. He looked kind of slow to that ball that Saunders hit for a triple.

[Terminator]

Upton may be a fulltime player on SD but he should not be a fulltime player on a contending team. He's rocking a 85 wRC+ vs RHP this year and has a wRC+ of 95 his entire career.

 

Ehh I mean if he's a fulltime player batting in the bottom 3rd of the lineup is he really that bad?

[gbill2004]

This is exciting!

[bronson44]

Ken RosenthalVerified account

‏@Ken_Rosenthal

Sources: #BlueJays agree to acquire Melvin Upton Jr. from #Padres for Class A prospect. Financial terms not known. Likely finalized today.

[glory]

Smoak is projected for a 98 wRC+, Upton is at 84 wRC+, that's nowhere close to "almost as good as". And Smoak is useless because he can't play a position, Upton is useless because his bat isn't good enough.

 

People are only looking at the last few hundred plate appearances with Upton and overestimating his ability. His track record is not good, nor will his mediocre defence make up for unreliable bat.

 

He had a 110 wRC+ in 2015 (228 Pa) and 100 so far this season, and he brings at least some value on defence and on the bases. Smoak was at 107 last season and 101 this year, and he's a slug at 1b and the bases. We are looking at two average hitters at absolute best, but one of them brings defensive value and speed, and he's been much better in LF this season than he has been in center (and he's not playing center over Pillar on this team).

 

Like I said, if the Pads are picking up most of the tab and the Jays are giving up very little, then it is an upgrade in 2016 and gives them depth in 2017 with two OF's leaving. Even a Carrera/Upton platoon is probably better than Smoak playing everyday.

[Atothe]

Perdomo I bet

[Jonn]

Perdomo I bet

 

They can have 2 Perdomo's who suck.

[Caper]

If I can remember he seemed to hit an awful lot of annoying HR's against us.

[HERPDERP]

We just acquired him for low A prospect, according to Kenny

[labadee]

i hope they dont use his salary to justify non-signings in the off-season

[RealAccountant]

i hope they dont use his salary to justify non-signings in the off-season

 

I expect it to. bJ is making 16.4 next year

[Daniel Labude]

We just acquired him for low A prospect, according to Kenny

 

Pentecost?

[Jonn]

If I can remember he seemed to hit an awful lot of annoying HR's against us.

 

He f***ed us up pretty good. Especially when he first came up. Back when he was butcher on the infield. He looked like he was going to be Superstar once he moved to CF. His potential and physical tools have always been off the charts. The AL Beast will be no stranger to him.

[RealAccountant]

Padres better be eating contract here