Sanchez Projection March 2016

[Jimcanuck]

I think Sanchez's realistic upside is he could be a Keuchel of 2013/2014. Around 6.5 K/9 2.8 BB/9 and a 59% GB%

 

2013 7.2 K/9 3.05 BB/9 55.8 GB% 3.58 xFIP

 

2014 6.57 K/9 2.16 BB/9 63.5 GB% 3.20 xFIP

 

I don't see a scenario where his BB/9 drops that low. BB/9 of 3.5 - 4.0 would be optimistic

[Brownie19]

I think you need to read the Sabremetric introduction thread. (We would never use W-L record here for the reasons you just stated.) Hutch actually had an okay xFIP last year and put up 1.5 WAR in 150 IP which is not bad. He has a 4.00 career xFIP and 102 career xFIP- (meaning he is just 2% below average).

 

I'd save your time man...seriously.

[Brownie19]

Hutch has had MINIMAL success at the MLB level and one might argue that without the offensive support behind him last year, his W-L numbers are completely reversed to go along with the rest of his horrid numbers.

 

Aside from a high walk rate, Sanchez actually had minimal success in the same role as well. But I gotta say that Sanchez has pitched his way into a job and its his to lose. If he keeps his walk rate down, all this BS about missing bats and all that is completely meaningless as long as he continues to induce weak contact on the ground. It's when he tries to do too much that he gets himself into trouble. His natural ability is more than enough to carry him as a number 2 or 3 guy, depending on what kind of makeup he has mentally.

 

A lot of that that is yet to be seen and that is the plain and simple truth. So people judging that a 22 year old is this or that has no f***ing idea what they are talking about. He could be a complete bust or he could end up being a solid no 2 guy. Could end up being a valuable back end of the bullpen guy as he's proven to be over the past 2 seasons.

 

But my take is that he has above average MLB stuff. Needs to develop his secondary pitches and above all else, we need to find out where his composure level on that mound is at over a generous period of time. Then make some sort of solid judgement on what he actually is. Until then, all this hate on a 22 year old kid with a 96 plus fastball with movement is just worthless. His ceiling is obviously pretty high, so why not find out how high that ceiling goes?

 

Maybe thats why you may have to reevaluate your reliance on Sabermetrics because Hutch suckkkkkked last year and crashed in the last half of 2014 and I don't care what the numbers show. 2% below average is still below average, he will be going back to AAA and hopefully swapped out for........

 

Can you guys tell me more about the dinosaurs?

[burlingtonbandit]

I don't see a scenario where his BB/9 drops that low. BB/9 of 3.5 - 4.0 would be optimistic

 

I don't think high 2s/low 3s BB/9 is unrealistic. Those numbers were more for what I think he could do in his peak seasons not this year.

[Jimcanuck]

I don't think high 2s/low 3s BB/9 is unrealistic. Those numbers were more for what I think he could do in his peak seasons not this year.

 

Agreed then. Except the K rate is low. Expect a quality 3rd pitch to be developed and the K rate to get up to ~8.

[dineke]

I'd be thrilled if he gives us a couple of Ricky Romero years before his control problems take over and turns him into a pumpkin.

[burlingtonbandit]

I'd be thrilled if he gives us a couple of Ricky Romero years before his control problems take over and turns him into a pumpkin.

 

Getting 8 WAR from him for the next few seasons would be a huge success. Romero actually is a pretty good comp. Was bad throughout the minors and a High BB, high GB pitcher who struggles vs LHH.

[saskjayfan]

League avg SwStr%: 8.5%

Sanchez SwStr%: 6.8%

 

League average sample size vs Sanchez sample size

[saskjayfan]

League average starts in upper minors for highschool pitcher vs. Sanchez starts in upper minors.

 

stats that matter vs stats that don't matter. Some players make a lot of changes in development years, some do not. Sanchez belongs in the former category.

 

Those that say Sanchez shouldn't start also prey to the gods of Fangraphs and worship all their teachings. Well, Fangraphs says start Sanchez, so maybe you just misunderstood one of their lessons.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/aaron-sanchezs-place-in-torontos-rotation/

[Stoneyen]

It would be silly to put Sanchez in the bullpen. Especially after what he's shown this spring. I know ST stats are basically meaningless, but if there's the smallest chance he can lower the walk rate then you have to explore it given the upside.

[Angrioter]

stats that matter vs stats that don't matter. Some players make a lot of changes in development years, some do not. Sanchez belongs in the former category.

 

Those that say Sanchez shouldn't start also prey to the gods of Fangraphs and worship all their teachings. Well, Fangraphs says start Sanchez, so maybe you just misunderstood one of their lessons.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/aaron-sanchezs-place-in-torontos-rotation/

 

Fangraphs stats was created by aliens, but the articles was made by morons writers. One or two good writers, but the rest kinda suxx. The alien stats said "Sanchez suxx as a Starter"

[flafson]

From MLBTR:

Gavin Floyd will make a start in a minor league game today, which could bring more clarity to the still-unsettled fifth starter’s battle between Floyd and Aaron Sanchez. Gibbons was rather vague in comments to reporters (including Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi) yesterday about whether the Jays were any closer to a decision. Both starters have pitched very well this spring, adding to the debate as to whether the Blue Jays should go with the veteran reclamation project or the promising but still raw youngster. Andrew Stoeten of Blue Jays Nation points out that Sanchez still has unanswered questions about whether or not he can retire left-handed hitters after getting hit hard by lefty bats last season, while an NL scout tells Jeff Blair (in the previously-linked piece) that Sanchez has the “best stuff I’ve seen anywhere this spring. They’re crazy if they put him in the bullpen.”

[Angrioter]

From MLBTR:

Gavin Floyd will make a start in a minor league game today, which could bring more clarity to the still-unsettled fifth starter’s battle between Floyd and Aaron Sanchez. Gibbons was rather vague in comments to reporters (including Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi) yesterday about whether the Jays were any closer to a decision. Both starters have pitched very well this spring, adding to the debate as to whether the Blue Jays should go with the veteran reclamation project or the promising but still raw youngster. Andrew Stoeten of Blue Jays Nation points out that Sanchez still has unanswered questions about whether or not he can retire left-handed hitters after getting hit hard by lefty bats last season, while an NL scout tells Jeff Blair (in the previously-linked piece) that Sanchez has the “best stuff I’ve seen anywhere this spring. They’re crazy if they put him in the bullpen.”

 

Stuff is like the "cluth hitter" idea

Stats don't like.

[Brownie19]

From MLBTR:

Gavin Floyd will make a start in a minor league game today, which could bring more clarity to the still-unsettled fifth starter’s battle between Floyd and Aaron Sanchez. Gibbons was rather vague in comments to reporters (including Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi) yesterday about whether the Jays were any closer to a decision. Both starters have pitched very well this spring, adding to the debate as to whether the Blue Jays should go with the veteran reclamation project or the promising but still raw youngster. Andrew Stoeten of Blue Jays Nation points out that Sanchez still has unanswered questions about whether or not he can retire left-handed hitters after getting hit hard by lefty bats last season, while an NL scout tells Jeff Blair (in the previously-linked piece) that Sanchez has the “best stuff I’ve seen anywhere this spring. They’re crazy if they put him in the bullpen.”

 

I still don't f***ing get this. "Best stuff". I consider "stuff" to be a reflection of all the pitches a pitcher throws. I think people are misusing the word stuff when they mean his fastball looks electric this spring. He has an average curve (which makes no sense to throw off his 2 seamer) and nothing else.

 

Of interest, I actually looked up the definition of "stuff" and this article came up.

 

http://deadspin.com/here-is-what-stuff-means-in-baseball-1734592813

 

Funny to see Jake Arrieta under the "great stuff, not crafty" category, wearing an Orioles cap...

[Brownie19]

From MLBTR:

Gavin Floyd will make a start in a minor league game today, which could bring more clarity to the still-unsettled fifth starter’s battle between Floyd and Aaron Sanchez. Gibbons was rather vague in comments to reporters (including Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi) yesterday about whether the Jays were any closer to a decision. Both starters have pitched very well this spring, adding to the debate as to whether the Blue Jays should go with the veteran reclamation project or the promising but still raw youngster. Andrew Stoeten of Blue Jays Nation points out that Sanchez still has unanswered questions about whether or not he can retire left-handed hitters after getting hit hard by lefty bats last season, while an NL scout tells Jeff Blair (in the previously-linked piece) that Sanchez has the “best stuff I’ve seen anywhere this spring. They’re crazy if they put him in the bullpen.”

 

I'm picturing Gus (without Mickey there to help) talking with Jeff Blair and the conversation is pure nonsense.

[Angrioter]

From MLBTR:

Gavin Floyd will make a start in a minor league game today, which could bring more clarity to the still-unsettled fifth starter’s battle between Floyd and Aaron Sanchez. Gibbons was rather vague in comments to reporters (including Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi) yesterday about whether the Jays were any closer to a decision. Both starters have pitched very well this spring, adding to the debate as to whether the Blue Jays should go with the veteran reclamation project or the promising but still raw youngster. Andrew Stoeten of Blue Jays Nation points out that Sanchez still has unanswered questions about whether or not he can retire left-handed hitters after getting hit hard by lefty bats last season, while an NL scout tells Jeff Blair (in the previously-linked piece) that Sanchez has the “best stuff I’ve seen anywhere this spring. They’re crazy if they put him in the bullpen.”

 

John Farrell "Sam Dyson have the best stuff in the whole organizacion"

[flafson]

John Farrell "Sam Dyson have the best stuff in the whole organizacion"

 

Funny that you remember that and I was able to find the article.

http://news.nationalpost.com/sports/mlb/the-newest-blue-jay-sam-dyson-makes-his-pro-debut-in-april-and-hits-the-majors-in-july

Less than three months after his pro debut, Dyson is in the big leagues. And manager John Farrell says he has “maybe the best overall stuff in our organization.”

 

Farrell is clueless and said "MAYBE".

[saskjayfan]

Fangraphs stats was created by aliens, but the articles was made by morons writers. One or two good writers, but the rest kinda suxx. The alien stats said "Sanchez suxx as a Starter"

 

Sanchez for 5th or 6th inning specialist #maximizevalue

[burlingtonbandit]

Why the hell is Floyd starting in a minor league game? Seems like Shapiro wants Floyd to start and a lot of the other FO and on field staff want Sanchez to start. There must have seem some agreement with the Floyd signing that he would have the 1st shot at the rotation.

[Governator]

Why the hell is Floyd starting in a minor league game? Seems like Shapiro wants Floyd to start and a lot of the other FO and on field staff want Sanchez to start. There must have seem some agreement with the Floyd signing that he would have the 1st shot at the rotation.

 

When you have a surplus of pitchers fighting for spots, you try to keep them on a regular rest and give them games. It doesn't matter who he's facing just keep throwing good.

[burlingtonbandit]

When you have a surplus of pitchers fighting for spots, you try to keep them on a regular rest and give them games. It doesn't matter who he's facing just keep throwing good.

 

You would think the FO wants to see him face decent competition though since he's fighting for the 5th spot. (Insert Phillies joke)

[Cyborg]

Reporters reporting scout opinions is probably the dumbest thing in baseball reporting.

[Governator]

You would think the FO wants to see him face decent competition though since he's fighting for the 5th spot. (Insert Phillies joke)

 

I think FO already has decided who has the 5th spot and they just want solid outings and high confidence by everyone.

[burlingtonbandit]

I think FO already has decided who has the 5th spot and they just want solid outings and high confidence by everyone.

 

Yeah more than likely.

[saskjayfan]

Reporters reporting scout opinions is probably the dumbest thing in baseball reporting.

 

velocity is an unbiased indicator. His velocity is up this spring as compared to his velocity as a starter last year.

[Brownie19]

velocity is an unbiased indicator. His velocity is up this spring as compared to his velocity as a starter last year.

 

Based on which games started last year? It's well documented he wasn't throwing as hard (on purpose) in his early starts (because Pete thought it would help his command). When that failed miserably, he started throwing harder as a starter. Also - how many inning has he thrown per start this spring? I know it was 6 the other day, less in all previous starts. It's easier to throw hard when you know you're only going 3-5 innings and X number of pitches. When it's the regular season and you want to go 7-8 every time out it's a different story man.

Edited March 25, 2016 by Brownie19

[Brownie19]

You would think the FO wants to see him face decent competition though since he's fighting for the 5th spot. (Insert Phillies joke)

 

Or that pitiful Astros lineup that Sanchez faced in his previous start.......like honestly, even the dinosaurs who don't like the sabr discussion about Sanchez can't ignore the fact he's pitched against pure and utter garbage the past two starts and thus the results need to be taken with a grain of salt....right? Or are the rose coloured glasses too thick?

[Brownie19]

Sanchez for 5th or 6th inning specialist #maximizevalue

 

There's a real argument that to maximize value - you let Floyd start and use up whatever bullets he has left. Sanchez builds on the spring success in AAA (as most of his success this spring has been vs. minor leaguers) and comes up when Floyd's arm falls off. If you waste Floyd's bullets in the 6th inning and/or if he's unable to be stretched out later on - you're losing an asset you'll need this year (ie, starting pitching....need 8-10).

[saskjayfan]

Based on which games started last year? It's well documented he wasn't throwing as hard in his early starts (because Pete thought it would help his command). When that failed miserably, he started throwing harder as a starter. Also - how many inning has he thrown per start? I know it was 6 the other day, less in all previous starts. It's easier to throw hard when you know you're only going 3-5 innings and X number of pitches. When it's the regular season and you want to go 7-8 every time out it's a different story man.

 

Sanchez went 6 and a third last outing...not 3 to 5. His velocity was down even as a reliever vs the previous year. His velocity in spring training last year was less than it is this year. The velocity this spring training has ticket up. As a starter, his velocity this year would be a couple mph more than last year. That's just a fact. At times he struggled to hit 94, 95 as a starter last year.

 

As far as him limiting walks and hitting his spots more often because it's crap competition he's facing, sure there is some subjectivity to that argument. You don't want to believe Sanchez can improve his command of his fastball or his secondary pitches, that's your prerogative. You claim witchcraft to the industry professionals and coaches who are claiming these advancements in his pitching abilities. I get it, your baseball acumen sitting on your couch is unquestionable.

 

let's trade sanchez for the philly fanatic and end these endless discussions.

[Brownie19]

Sanchez went 6 and a third last outing...not 3 to 5. His velocity was down even as a reliever vs the previous year. His velocity in spring training last year was less than it is this year. The velocity this spring training has ticket up. As a starter, his velocity this year would be a couple mph more than last year. That's just a fact. At times he struggled to hit 94, 95 as a starter last year.

 

As far as him limiting walks and hitting his spots more often because it's crap competition he's facing, sure there is some subjectivity to that argument. You don't want to believe Sanchez can improve his command of his fastball or his secondary pitches, that's your prerogative. You claim witchcraft to the industry professionals and coaches who are claiming these advancements in his pitching abilities. I get it, your baseball acumen sitting on your couch is unquestionable.

 

let's trade sanchez for the philly fanatic and end these endless discussions.

 

You're incredible. I guess you can tell us his velocity is up this spring vs. last spring - but you have no idea why, or if that means anything at all. For all we know, last spring he was holding back in an effort to improve his command (something he did for his first couple starts in the regular season) - or maybe he was building up strength in a different manner (pitchers build up strength and velocity as spring training goes on...very common). I'm suggesting that making conclusions based on some spring training velocity is short sighted.

 

Last start he went 6 innings - great...what about the ones before that? That's great he had good velocity in his first start of the year when he went 6 innings. Can he sustain that for 15-20 straight starts? Time will tell.

 

I'm fully believe Sanchez can improve and surely hope he does. I'm rooting for this kid as much as anyone. I'm simply concerned he hasn't been able to develop quality secondary pitches (which he's been trying to for 6-7 years now with no success). I'm encouraged by the BB% this spring - but it's unheard of to go from 5 BB/9 to <2 or whatever he's shown this spring. I think he can have some success if he can get the walks down around 3 BB/9 - but even that's a massive jump. It took Randy Johnson, one of the best pitchers of all time 6 full seasons and over 180 starts to get his BB/9 under 3.

 

Based on all that - I'm simply suggesting those who have his hog lodged in their throats to simply pump the brake a little and acknowledge these spring training starts vs. horrible competition may not be signs he's going to challenge for the cy young this year.